Next week is the big election. Thankfully, we only have to go through this every 4 years. While I don’t see much of a difference between Romney and Obama, rhetoric aside, it can still be an interesting show to watch.
Part of me wants to see Obama win so that the economy can continue to collapse on his watch. He is known as a supporter of big government and redistributionism and I want big government to get the complete blame when the economy gets even worse.
For this same reason, it might be bad if Romney wins, because then free market capitalism will be blamed (at least by the media and establishment) when the economy gets worse. Even though Romney’s policies will be mostly the opposite of free market capitalism, that is the brush that both sides try to paint.
However, there is a part of me that wants to see Romney win. I have been telling my Republican/ conservative friends that Romney is just as much pro big government as Obama. He won’t cut spending, he won’t get rid of regulations, he won’t challenge the Fed, he won’t balance the budget or come even close, and he won’t challenge the status quo of big government. I’m not even sure if Romney would actually repeal Obamacare, or perhaps he will come up with something that is even worse (dressed in semi-market rhetoric).
So if Romney wins, I will be more than happy to point out all of his big government initiatives along the way, just as I did in George W. Bush’s second term. And I will laugh about the trillion dollar deficits under a Romney administration, even though it should be no laughing matter.
At this point, Obama still looks like the favorite. Intrade has him back above 60%. He had been up around 80%, but took a big fall after the debates.
The most interesting thing to look at on Intrade though is the electoral map. Colorado and Virginia are up for grabs. Florida is leaning Romney and Ohio is leaning Obama. These four states will probably decide it all. To narrow it down more, if Romney wins Ohio or Obama wins Florida, then that will decide it all right there. If things hold and Romney wins Florida and Obama wins Ohio, then Obama probably wins.
It is interesting because Romney is actually leading in most national polls now. There seems to be a good chance that Romney could win the popular vote and Obama could win the election with electoral votes.
Unfortunately, no third party candidate has a chance at anything. The best Gary Johnson and the Libertarian Party have to hope for is to break 1%. Unfortunately, this probably won’t even happen. While Johnson seems like a decent guy, he is just not as radical or educated on libertarian principles as he should be. He is no Ron Paul. And for that, he won’t get a majority of the Ron Paul supporters.
In conclusion, it still looks like Obama is the favorite, but Romney may win the popular vote. Even if you find both candidates disgusting as I do, it will still be interesting to watch.