I have been an advocate of the permanent portfolio for over 20 years now.  It was probably around 2002 or 2003 when I first read Harry Browne’s little book titled “Fail-Safe Investing”.  I got the honor of meeting Harry Browne in 2004 during the Libertarian Party of Florida’s state convention.

I had the chance to tell him that I really appreciated his political work and that his book on setting up a permanent portfolio was really great.  He was quite kind and told me to send him an email, and he would send me an updated list of funds to consider for the portfolio.  I emailed him after the convention was over, and he replied as promised.

I haven’t exactly followed the portfolio in a rigid way through the years.  I have made modifications.  I have also used the mutual fund PRPFX, which does have some variations of its own.  PRPFX holds Swiss francs and also holds a small amount of silver.

But overall, I have used the permanent portfolio as something of a home base.  There is always a chunk of investments there for relative safety.  Of course, you can never have absolute safety with any investments.

Not Flashy

The hard part about investing in the permanent portfolio (or something similar) is that you will feel left behind at times.  This has been especially true since 2009 when the last major downturn in stocks ended.  To be sure, there have been bad periods since that time, but the overall trend for stocks has been up.

There are so many financial advisors and financial pundits out there who give you some formula for your portfolio.  Sometimes it is just a mix of stocks and bonds that changes based on your age and risk tolerance.  There are surprisingly many people who advocate that you just put everything in a no-load mutual fund or ETF that tracks U.S. stocks if you don’t need the money in the next five years or so.

This strategy has worked reasonably well since 2009 because we haven’t had a major bear market since that time.  The problem is that it doesn’t mean it will keep working well.

I always like to point to Japan – a first-world country – where the stock index peaked in 1989.  It was still down 3 decades later.

If anything even half as bad as that occurred in the U.S., many people would be financially devastated.  It would ruin a lot of plans.

We could also have other scenarios.  In the U.S. in the 1970s, stocks didn’t do well during much of that time while price inflation was raging.  Again, another scenario like that would ruin the retirement plans of a lot of people.

The permanent portfolio is dull and boring until it isn’t.  If we experience a bear market in stocks where the overall stock market goes down about 50% over the course of 2 or 3 years, your permanent portfolio will be looking good.  It may go down during that time, but it will likely be a lot less than 50%.

And one of the great things, if you can stay disciplined, is that you can rebalance the portfolio by selling off some assets that have done relatively well and buying assets that are down in price.

The Gold

The most controversial part about the permanent portfolio is the holding of 25% gold or gold equivalents.  This is why it doesn’t get much attention from the more establishment financial world.

Even here though, there are many more “mainstream” financial gurus who will now recommend holding something like 5 to 10 percent in gold just to level out the wild swings of a portfolio.

This isn’t an all-or-nothing game, or at least it doesn’t need to be.  If you are skeptical about holding 25% in gold and gold funds in your portfolio, you can always just go with 10 to 15 percent.  Just having that amount will add great diversification and help smooth out the wild rides.

War, Inflation, Lockdowns, Political Chaos

A lot has happened just in the last decade.  We have had Trump, Biden, and Trump again.  There has been political chaos.  There have been many wars and conflicts, including in Ukraine and several countries that produce significant oil.  We had COVID lockdowns.  We had a brief but significant period of high price inflation that hit around 2022.

A lot has happened, and it continues to happen.  Stocks have stayed strong through most of this, especially when there are assurances from the Federal Reserve that it will give us easy money when needed.

If you had known in 2009 what would happen – politically speaking – over the next 16 years, you might not have invested in stocks.  If you had known in 2009 what investments would do, you would have put your money in stocks for the next 16 years instead of in the permanent portfolio, if you had to buy and hold.  Actually, you probably would have bought something like Bitcoin when it was $10.

Of course, we don’t know what the future holds, and that is the reason for the permanent portfolio.  We also buy insurance for things because the future is uncertain, and we want some protection.

Overall, the permanent portfolio has done its job well.  There have been big gains over the last couple of years because the price of gold has exploded while stocks have continued to trend higher.

I am fine with a slightly lower return if it means more safety and less anxiety when the next form of political or economic chaos hits.

The permanent portfolio will continue to act as a great home base and something of an insurance policy for our uncertain future.

For anyone paying attention and dealing with the situation honestly, it is apparent that Donald Trump is completely unhinged at this point.  He stepped it up this past week and went to a whole new level of evil.

On Easter Sunday, Trump put out a message that, if Iran didn’t open up the Strait of Hormuz, he would destroy the bridges and power plants in Iran.  He used some course language in the process.

A lot of people shared their disgust that Trump would use the “f” word, especially on Easter.  And maybe this would be an appropriate response for a message that is less consequential.

But using the “f” word on Easter doesn’t come close to the fact that Trump just threatened to destroy the infrastructure of an entire country made up of over 90 million people.  To be clear, Trump wasn’t threatening to blow up bridges that were used within Iran to transport military equipment.  He was threatening to blow up all of the bridges in Iran.

To follow up on his social media post, the next day Trump threatened to destroy an entire civilization.

Even if Iranian officials had been the ones to start the war (which they weren’t), and even if Iranian officials were making similar threats (which they weren’t), these words from Trump are unacceptable and pure evil.  He was threatening an entire civilian population with death and destruction.

The Supposed Ceasefire and Emboldening Trump

Just before Trump’s self-imposed deadline, he announced that there was a ceasefire for two weeks and that Iran’s 10-point proposal was a good start for negotiating.  Apparently, Israel didn’t get the memo and kept up the attacks, at least on Lebanon.

There was certainly a big sense of relief throughout the planet because most people didn’t want to see an entire civilization wiped out.

There was one bad thing I saw from this ceasefire.  If Iran capitulated because of Trump’s threats, then it could just embolden Trump even more (if that’s possible).  Trump is already psychotic enough.  If he thinks he just needs to threaten total annihilation to get his way on things, then he is more likely to do so in the future.

The good news is that I tend to think that Trump did not really get his way.  I am almost starting to wonder whether Iran even really agreed to a ceasefire and opening up the Strait.  We certainly can’t trust what is coming out of the mouth of Trump or anyone in his administration.

Perhaps Trump had a moment of sanity and realized that it wouldn’t be good if he tried to wipe out an entire civilization.  Or maybe it was all talk from the beginning.  Maybe some of his idiot and evil advisors realized that Iran would unleash missiles all over the Middle East and would destroy a lot more.  They realized that $200 oil wouldn’t be a good look.

I don’t know if the Prime Minister of Pakistan really did anything at all other than serve as a messenger.  He offered a way out for Trump, or Trump found someone who was willing to go along with him.

The 10-Point Plan

The 10-point plan that Trump referenced had already been on the table for a couple of weeks before this.  Maybe it seemed like a new plan to a lot of people because the U.S. establishment media didn’t report about it much.

For Trump to even say that this is a starting point is to admit defeat.

This proposal from Iran states, among other things, the following:

• The U.S. would withdraw combat forces from all bases in the region.
• Iran would be paid reparations for war damages.
• Iran would have the right to nuclear enrichment.
• All sanctions against Iran would be lifted.
• Iran would maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz.

This is unbelievable.  If anything close to this proposal goes into effect, it would be a total defeat for Donald Trump and the U.S. empire.  To be sure, it would probably actually be a long-term win for the American people if U.S. forces exited the Middle East.

Trump is the one who threw out the JCPOA that was put in place when Obama was president.  That agreement allowed inspections of Iran’s enrichment to make sure they couldn’t get a nuclear weapon.  It didn’t include anything like having all U.S. forces leave the region.  It didn’t include giving Iran control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Great negotiation there, Donald.  You tore up Obama’s deal in order to get a much worse deal, at least in the eyes of the U.S. empire.  Maybe this really is 5D chess and Trump was determined to play the role of buffoon in order to diminish the power of Israel and the U.S. empire.

The Fallout

Iranian missiles have likely destroyed or severely damaged many of the U.S. bases in the region.  Now would be as good of time as any to bring U.S. military forces home.

Again, this would be a major loss for the U.S. empire and a major win for the average American.

If anything close to this happens, expect the war hawks to turn on Trump.  Trump won’t have much of a base left.

Tucker Carlson finally fully turned against Trump.  Tucker Carlson had been critical of the Trump administration’s policies while going out of his way to not personally criticize Trump.  He probably thought that he was the only person left who opposed the war machine who still had Trump’s ear.  But he finally had enough after Trump threatened to destroy an entire country.  Not only did Tucker criticize Trump directly, but he essentially said he was working against Christian values.  Some are saying that Tucker was suggesting that Trump was the anti-Christ.

When the likes of Lindsey Graham and Mark Levin also turn against Trump (who have been never-Trumpers since 2015), he will be a lonely man.

Trump is a pathetic human being, and he will deserve going down in history as pathetic and evil.  He made these choices.  He chose to attack Thomas Massie and MTG.  He chose to listen to the war hawks and attack Iran, Venezuela, Syria, Yemen, Nigeria, and others.  He let his ego and lust for power get in the way of good decision making.

Hopefully we can get out of this conflict without too much more damage being done.  If the U.S. empire is severely weakened because of it, then the world will be better off.

Since the U.S./ Israel attack on Iran, U.S. stocks have been more volatile.  They had periods of high volatility in 2025 with tariff announcements, and now the war has brought the volatility back.

One of the big concerns for investors is the price of oil.  On days where it seemed like there was a possible end in sight to the conflict, oil would generally go down and stocks would generally go up.

On days where threats were intensifying and the oil price would go up, then stocks were more likely to take a fall.  It hasn’t been a perfect correlation, but this has been the trend.

Interestingly, gold investors have not been rewarded during this conflict, at least to this point.  The price of gold (in terms of dollars) has generally gone down as tensions have gone up.  This seems to break the narrative that gold is a safe haven and generally goes up during times of uncertainty.

Higher Oil Prices

While the price of oil is bad for our living standards, it doesn’t necessarily have to be bad for stocks. Obviously, energy companies could benefit just because of the higher prices for energy.  Of course, companies operating in the Middle East could be hurt badly.

But if you are a company that drills for oil in the United States, then you are doing much better, financially speaking.  At least for now, you are paying the same prices to extract oil, but you get to sell it at a much higher price.

The problem is for all of the other companies that get hurt by higher oil prices because it means higher expenses.  This seems to be the main reason that stocks, in general, are going down in response to higher oil prices.

This also impacts consumers.  If you have to pay more to fill up your car with gas, then you won’t have as much to spend on other things.  Maybe you won’t buy that expensive sweater.  This means lower profits for the clothing company.

This is why higher oil prices alone is not generally inflationary in the long run.  Higher oil prices make some things more expensive, but it means people have less money to spend in other areas.  This can actually drive down other prices.

The only way you can have a sustained inflationary environment is by having more money in the system.

Stocks, War, and Inflation

Wars being fought overseas has not necessarily been bad for U.S. stocks.  Let’s look at Iraq and Afghanistan.  U.S. stocks performed poorly from 2000 to 2002.  This was the crash coming off of the tech bubble.

The war in Afghanistan started in late 2001.  The war in Iraq (or the bigger phase of the war that was started in 1991) started in 2003.  Stocks actually went up after the war in Iraq started in 2003.  They went higher until the financial crisis of 2008.

When wars are being fought in other parts of the world, they don’t seem to have that much impact on U.S. stocks.  They are quite beneficial for the military-industrial complex.  If anything, wars can actually be beneficial for stocks in general because they are inflationary.

The U.S. is able to fight expensive wars because of the central bank’s ability to create money out of thin air.  If taxpayers were told they had to pay for wars with higher taxes, then the wars probably wouldn’t happen or would not last as long.

When new money is created, it does have a tendency to drive prices higher.  This includes asset prices.  Stock investors often benefit with the inflationary environment.

War in the Middle East

The war in Iran could be a bit different than what we have seen in recent decades.  The war in Iran isn’t just in Iran.  Israel is getting hit hard by missiles.  U.S. military bases are getting hit hard throughout the Middle East.  While the U.S. establishment media hasn’t covered this much, there are reports that there has been extensive damage to U.S. bases.

Iran has also been able to fully control the Strait of Hormuz and stop the shipping of oil from any countries that are not considered friendly.

There are discussions about the U.S. possibly exiting the war, but it doesn’t end the problems.  Iran can keep firing missiles.  Iranian officials will continue to keep the Strait restricted until it gets some assurances that it won’t be attacked again anytime in the near future.

In other words, this is a different animal from the war in Iraq.

At the same time, as with virtually all wars, this war will be inflationary.  There was already a major spending problem in Washington DC.  We could be seeing trillion-dollar deficits over the course of 3 or 4 months.

Tug-of-War in Stocks

There are a lot of different things happening to pull stocks in different directions.  The same could be said for gold.

It’s easy to forget that there was an inverted yield curve in 2023 and 2024.  It has gradually normalized.  This is a warning sign of a recession, which we obviously haven’t seen yet.

Will this economy defy the inverted yield curve?  Or will the economy fall into recession regardless of what is happening in the Middle East?  Will the added inflation from war spending delay us from going into recession and prop up stocks?

If we do go into recession, the higher oil prices from the war will get the blame.  But perhaps it was baked into the cake already.

There are a lot of major factors going on here.  We have a recession threat and higher oil prices threatening stocks.  But we also have monetary inflation pulling stocks in the other direction.

The economy is complicated enough without a major war and disruption in the flow of oil.  One thing that is likely is that we will continue to see high volatility in the stock market.

It is crazy with all of the lies the political left told about Trump, and now they get to say, “See.  We told you all along that he was a nutcase.”  The problem is that they still made up a bunch of stuff and mostly opposed him for the wrong reasons.

There were very few people who were saying that Russiagate was a hoax, that many of Trump’s enemies are horrible people, and that Trump is still a nutcase.  Those people can brag about being right.

Trump was not this much of a nutcase in his first term (2017 to 2020).  He certainly had many issues and did some bad things, but he looks comparably sane back then compared to now.

Trump has become completely unhinged.  He has surrounded himself with the worst people imaginable while pushing away any kind of constructive criticism meant to help him and help the country.

He went from calling for world peace to kidnapping the president and his wife of Venezuela, to threatening to take Greenland by military force, to now an all-out war against Iran.

Almost nobody in this world is happy about the war started in Iran and the greater Middle East.  The war hawks like Lindsey Graham and Mark Levin are happy.  Netanyahu is happy, or at least he was when the attacks first began.  Perhaps the people living in Greenland are happy because it takes the heat off of them.

Aside from that, it is just catastrophe everywhere.  Trump made his bed, and now he gets to lay in it.

The Roller Coaster of Trump’s Mind

Trump said last summer that they obliterated Iran’s nuclear capacity.  Then, in early 2026, all of a sudden, Iran is two weeks away from getting a nuclear weapon.  How many times has Iran been just weeks away from getting a nuclear weapon over the last 25 years?

Trump said a few days ago that the war (or whatever they are calling it) is winding down.  Then, a day later, he issues an ultimatum for Iran that they better open up the Strait of Hormuz or the U.S. would attack Iran’s power plants.  Is this winding things down?

Iranian officials are now openly mocking Trump.  They don’t have much to lose at this point since they are being targeted and constantly bombed anyway.  They told Trump to go ahead and attack their power facilities and they would target Israel’s infrastructure along with major energy plants in countries in the Middle East that host U.S. military bases.  This could include attacking water desalination facilities that provide water for many millions of people.

Then Trump backed down again saying that he was making great progress in talks with Iran and that he wouldn’t follow through yet on his previous threat of attacking Iranian energy plants.

Iranian officials are again mocking Trump.  They are openly saying that there are no discussions.  I think most people believe the Iranian officials.  Trump had no way out of his original threat except to make up a lie.  He didn’t want to look weak, so he just lied about it.

While Iran is suffering the most death and destruction, they are essentially winning the war.  Trump is a very damaged man.  This is also a very dangerous situation given that he is a complete narcissist and may have some early form of dementia.

Where Does This End?

The markets were celebrating today, but we shouldn’t assume this thing is winding down, even if Trump is looking for an off ramp.  Iran has been violently attacked at least twice now while in the middle of negotiations. It might even be three times if you count Trump’s first term.  The worst thing Trump did in his first term as president was tear up the Iran deal and then kill Qasem Soleimani, who was actually trying to negotiate a peace deal in Iraq when he was assassinated.

Who would possibly want to sit down and negotiate with Trump and his thugs at this point?  Fool me once, shame on you.  I don’t think there is a “Fool me four times” saying.  Iranian officials would have to be insane to sit down and negotiate at this point.  Their negotiation with Trump should be, “Remove all military bases from the Middle East and stop sending money and weapons to Israel.  Then, and only then, maybe we’ll think about stopping our missiles.”

It is hard living in a war zone, to say the least.  It is hard to judge.  But I just don’t think Iran is coming to the negotiating table any time soon, even if Trump is looking for an off ramp.

Trump made this mess.  He wasn’t forced to do this by Israel.  He could have just said “no”.  We all have free will.  Maybe they are blackmailing him.  But that is still Trump’s choice to be blackmailed.  If they are threatening his family, then just resign.

There are no excuses left for Trump.  He is a war criminal.  He didn’t have to do this.  He doesn’t have to hand over money and weapons to Israel.  He doesn’t have to go to war on behalf of Israel and his war hawk advisors at home.  But he did, and now he gets to go down as one of the worst presidents of all time, and that is saying a lot.

The FOMC released its latest statement on monetary policy.  The Fed will maintain its target interest rate between 3.5% and 3.75%.  This was widely expected.

Last year, the Fed used tariffs as an excuse not to be too aggressive in lowering interest rates.  Now they are using the price of oil as an excuse because it may cause higher prices.

Perhaps Jerome Powell and the Fed should stop using these excuses and just say that they don’t want to lower interest rates more because consumer price inflation is still coming in higher than their supposed 2% target.

Do Higher Oil Prices Cause Inflation?

This is part of the problem of this switch in definition of inflation.  Inflation used to mean an increase in the supply of money.  The central bankers and defenders of economic intervention changed the definition of inflation to higher prices.  Higher prices is actually one of the results of monetary inflation.

Now they can get away with just saying that higher oil prices cause inflation.  This is not necessarily correct in either sense.  Higher oil prices do not directly cause an increase in monetary inflation.  Only the Fed and the commercial banks using fractional reserve lending can cause monetary inflation.

Higher oil prices do not even necessarily cause higher consumer price inflation.  It will increase the cost of energy.  It may increase the cost of food and other items that require significant transportation.

This impacts the average person and reduces their living standards because most people need to buy food and gasoline for their car.  This also means they have less money to spend elsewhere.

This could reduce people’s savings in the short term.  But the bulk of the difference will likely be reduced expenditures elsewhere.

Now that you are paying more for food and gas, you might decide to eat out less.  You might decide to not buy that new sweater.  Maybe you will decide to forgo the kitchen remodel.

Therefore, prices in other sectors should actually fall where there is reduced demand.  This is assuming that there isn’t new money entering the system.

And therefore, it can be argued that rising oil prices is not a reason for the Fed to be concerned about inflation.  There are other reasons they should be concerned, but that revolves around government spending and the central bank’s own policies.

War is Inflationary

War is harmful in almost every way possible.  The worst thing is the death.  The next worst thing is the massive destruction of property, particularly buildings where people live and do business.

Maybe one could argue that it isn’t a loss if a government facility is destroyed, but even here, it would be better to just sell it off to the highest bidder.  Plus, governments will probably just spend money to rebuild.

War is really absurd when you see different sides just shooting missiles at each other.  It is just causing death and destruction with seemingly no benefit.  Of course, the main blame goes towards those who started lobbing the missiles without a morally valid reason.

If all of that isn’t bad enough, we get the cultural and economic rot on top of it.  The U.S. government is in debt to the tune of almost $40 trillion.  Spending a few billion dollars extra every single day on an unnecessary and immoral war is the icing on the nightmare cake.

The government can’t even come close to paying for its spending with tax collections alone.  It relies heavily on debt and monetary inflation.  That is the only way this war against Iran will paid for.  It will be even more debt and more inflation than we already have.

While the price of gold has pulled back a little from its all-time high, it is hard to imagine that it won’t be hitting new all-time highs again soon, unless we go into a severe recession.  Even then, it’s not so clear.

On top of the increased spending and monetary inflation, the U.S. dollar could be in for some more trouble. Trump completely underestimated the Iranian response to the attacks, and then he had to start begging other countries to help open the oil shipping lanes.  The other countries either didn’t give a response or said “no”.  They don’t want to be pulled into this mess any more.

Trump is truly doing his best to isolate the U.S. from the rest of the world.  The rest of the world is tired of being bullied.  They don’t want to fight a military war with the U.S., but they can fight an economic war.  That means stopping the use of dollars in world trade.  They are realizing that they are better off avoiding the use of dollars when possible.

This will also be inflationary as excess dollars return to the U.S.  It will increase the price of gold in terms of U.S. dollars.

When Will the War End?

Trump can declare victory all he wants.  He can even stop bombing Iran.  But that doesn’t mean Iran has to stop throwing missiles at Israel and its Gulf neighbors.  It doesn’t mean that Iran has to open the shipping lanes for oil.  Iran can only do so much fighting against the U.S. militarily.

What Iran can do even more effective is to fight the U.S. economically.  And that is exactly what they are doing.  They are causing significant pain for the American consumer.  The average American was already feeling the pinch by their standards.

Remember in 2022 when you went to the gas pump with high prices?  Sometimes there would be a sticker with Biden’s picture saying “I did that.”  Now you could do the exact same thing with Trump’s picture.  Any adult with a functioning brain can realize that they are paying significantly more at the gas pump because Trump chose to bomb Iran.  There is little question of the correlation here.

Maybe some idiots will say it is worth it because we are getting the terrorists.  There are a lot of slogans being repeated from 2003.  But for the majority of Americans, they can understand that this was a war of choice, and it directly led to higher gas prices at the pump.  If they don’t get upset at over 100 school girls being murdered in Iran, they might at least get upset that it costs 35% more to fill up their car.

This could get a lot worse before it gets better.  Iran didn’t want this war.  Despite the problems there, it is a beautiful country with many kind people.  They don’t want this.  They have been left little choice but to fight back after being attacked multiple times by Israel and the U.S.

There is little motivation for Iranian officials to negotiate.  The last two times they tried to negotiate, they were attacked while in the middle of negotiations.  Why would anyone want to try to negotiate with Trump’s crew at this point?

This is why it might take a while for the conflict to end.  There is the potential for the price of oil to go much higher from here.  The one thing that is almost guaranteed is that there will be even more monetary inflation down the line.

• Trump keeps acting like he wants to negotiate his way out of this war.  It is kind of difficult when you killed the Ayatollah and many top Iranian officials, along with the people who you thought might be good replacements.
• Trump is not just evil in what he has done.  He has also shown just how stupid he can be.  He completely underestimated the Iranian response and how difficult it would be to stop the conflict once it began.
• Why doesn’t the government report on the damage done to U.S. air bases?  Is it because they have been flattened by Iranian missiles?
• You have to wonder if Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and other countries are questioning their relationship with the U.S.
• The Trump administration was supposedly negotiating with Iran in 2025 when Israel bombed Iran.  The U.S. joined in shortly after that.  The “negotiations” were happening again this last time when both the U.S. and Israel struck Iran.  If you were Xi or Putin, would you really want to talk to Trump or anyone else with the U.S. government at this point?  It seems like Trump’s idea of negotiations is “we’ll just pull a sneak attack and bomb you in the middle of negotiations.”
• We have no idea how much this will impact the flow of oil.  Maybe a global depression will help offset the rising cost of oil.
• The Ayatollah that was killed promised that Iran would never seek nuclear weapons.  Now his son has replaced him after having most of his family killed.  Do you think he might just be a bit more radicalized than his father?  How many people wouldn’t want revenge?
• When the U.S. attacked Iraq, Saddam and company lobbed a few scud missiles toward Israel.  They could do a little bit of damage.  They were not accurate.  Iran is a whole new ballgame.  The Iranian missiles are far more high-tech and powerful.  They also seem to be quite accurate at times.
• Tom Woods has had a saying for a long time now: “No matter who you vote for, you always get John McCain.”  I am seeing variations of that appear a lot these days.  Sometimes the people saying it don’t even know where it came from.
• I have commented before that, with the MAGA/ America First crowd, we are not going back to the Republican Party of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.  I was completely wrong there.  It is astounding how many “MAGA” people are supporting Trump’s war against Iran, along with all of his other bombings, invasions, and threatened invasions.
• The good news is that a majority of people are against this war.  While the hardcore MAGA bots have mostly stayed with Trump, there is a decent sized group who voted for Trump who don’t like what he’s doing now.  Not everybody who voted for Trump identifies as MAGA.  There were probably at least 10 million people who voted for Trump because they hated Biden and wanted to repudiate his administration.  (Kamala Harris said in her campaign that she wouldn’t have done anything different from Biden.)
• The U.S. empire weakens by the day.  But like a wounded animal, it is very dangerous when fighting for its life.
• I saw the warning signs of the Trump administration in March 2025.  They started arresting/ kidnapping legal immigrants for being critical of the state of Israel.  This is not what most people had in mind when Trump talked about cracking down on immigration.  If the feds will arrest people for speech critical of Israel, it is a really bad sign for what’s to come.  I don’t think this got enough attention at the time.
• There are a lot of people on the left whom I find I agree with these days in their criticisms of Trump.  Of course, they still get things wrong in what they say, and I don’t trust them for anything.  They were still wrong and/or lying about Russiagate, Trump telling people to drink bleach, etc.  Just because Trump is evil, it doesn’t make the leftists right on everything they say against Trump.  It also doesn’t make everything wrong that Trump does.  The left will use anything against Trump.  It just so happens that starting a massive war and turning the entire Middle East into chaos is an easy issue to win for the left.
• JD Vance is finished.  There is almost no way he becomes president unless Trump dies in office or is impeached and removed as president.
• Ask your MAGA/ Republican friends the following: What if Kamala Harris were president and started a war against Iran the exact same way that Trump has done and with the same results?  Would you support her on this effort?

This is an issue that most people just don’t think about much.  When they do think about it, it isn’t deep.

Unfortunately, many Americans view war as something of a video game.  More people are starting to understand that there is a cost to war, but they tend not to oppose war on purely moral grounds.

With the U.S. and Israeli governments starting a war with Iran (not just in Iran), there have been at least 6 U.S. soldiers who have died.  This gets a lot of attention.  Part of it is that it hits close to home.

If there is an event that kills 10 people in your city, it is going to get a lot of attention, and rightly so.  If a similar event happened in Thailand or Nigeria, you probably wouldn’t hear anything about it.  And to be sure, there is nothing wrong with that.

But when it is our own government initiating violence, every death counts.  They are making a big deal about the release of the names of the 6 U.S. soldiers.  Maybe the news should read off the names of all of the little girls who were murdered in Iran.

Pacifism and Non-Aggression

I am not a pacifist.  I believe in non-aggression.  I don’t think people should initiate violence.  It gets more complicated if someone steals property without using actual violence.

I believe that people have a right to defend themselves, including the use of violence.  If an innocent person is being attacked, then that person is justified in using violence to repel the attacker.

I believe that the use of violence really should be the last resort.  Even in the case of theft (which can be argued is violence, in a sense), there are oftentimes remedies that don’t require violence.

If someone has stolen money and refuses to give it back, there are ways that society can impose penalties and even provide some restitution for the victim.  The bank can take the thief’s assets.  The grocery store can prevent the thief from shopping there.  And if the thief is harmed by someone else, maybe he doesn’t get justice either.

Still, I am not necessarily against the use of some force in cases of theft.  Theft in itself is aggression.

War and Non-Aggression

The problem comes with war.  By nature, war is aggressive, even if responding to an attack.

Iran is demonstrating this dilemma now.  The U.S. and Israeli states are guilty of murder and war crimes.  It is completely inexcusable to attack another country that was not aggressing against others (in spite of media lies).  The only people who could lay claim to being aggressed against by the Iranian government is the Iranian people.

The moral question I have is in the response.  Iran has been firing hundreds of missiles into Israel and surrounding countries that have U.S. military bases.  It seems justified to fire missiles into military bases, but even here, there is not perfect accuracy.  Plus, when some of those missiles get shot down, they can fall on innocent parties.

The people living in or visiting the U.A.E. or Qatar don’t deserve to die.  Even the people living in Israel don’t deserve to die unless they were part of the specific group committing aggression.

This is the problem with war.  You can’t just defend yourself against the aggressors.  When you try to defend yourself, you are also going to kill innocent people in most cases.

This is an issue I struggle with.  If I were in Iran, I would probably be telling my government to fire missiles to cause pain to other people.  Even if you can’t kill the monster, you can give him a bloody nose.

The only other choice for Iranian officials was to literally do nothing and take it.  This just emboldens the “leaders” in the U.S. and Israel, and Israel would probably take over Iran, just as they are trying to take over parts of Lebanon right now.

There is an argument to be made that there would be even more death and destruction if Iran did nothing. Sometimes the bully needs to be punched back.  The problem is that punching back in this case means killing innocent people.

So, I don’t know if Iranian officials are “justified” in doing this.  It is certainly understandable what they are doing.  When you corner a wounded animal, they will eventually fight back even if they are the weaker one.

What I do know is that the U.S. and Israeli officials who initiated this war are murderers.  There was no legitimate justification to attack the people of Iran.

Donald Trump made the decision to strike Iran.  Sure, he does whatever Benjamin Netanyahu tells him to do, but he doesn’t have to.  That is his decision.  It is also Trump’s decision to cozy up to the likes of Mark Levin and Lindsey Graham and follow them over a cliff by enacting their war hawk agenda.

These people were never-Trumpers at one time because they didn’t like how Trump said that Bush lied us into war with Iraq.  They didn’t like Trump because he talked about trying to bring peace and putting America First.

Well, it turns out Trump was a complete liar when he talked about peace.  These neoconservatives also realized that all they have to do is constantly butter up Trump.  Just tell him how great he is and how much more wonderful he will be if he drops bombs on other countries.  It has worked brilliantly from their perspective.

Trump, the supposed peace candidate, is now doing the bidding of Netanyahu and the war hawks.  All they had to do was play on his ego and extreme narcissism.

No More Excuses

There are always excuses for Trump floating around.

• He had to do this so that he can achieve important policies in other areas.
• He is playing 4D chess.
• He is doing this to expose the deep state.
• He is doing this because the establishment is blackmailing him.
• He is better than Kamala would have been.

I have never been one for making excuses for politicians, although I was probably mildly guilty of excusing Trump at times.  If Trump bragged about how this is the greatest economy ever, I just chalked it up to Trump exaggerating and being over the top.

In 2015, when Trump came on the political scene, I didn’t like him much from a political standpoint.  Many years before that, he advocated for a wealth tax on rich people.  I recognized early on that he was a bit of socialist.

When I saw how much the establishment hated his guts in 2015 and 2016, I grew a bit of a soft spot for Trump, in spite of his many flaws.  Even though I didn’t vote for him in 2016, I was kind of cheering for him.  He seemed to change a good chunk of the Republican Party from just 4 or 8 years before when most of the major players were still defending Bush and the Iraq War.

I never place much hope in politicians in general, and it wasn’t much different here.  Still, even in 2024 leading up to the election, Trump seemed to have a bunch of decent people rallying around him.  This included Tulsi Gabbard, RFK Jr., Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Tucker Carlson.  If ever there was a chance for peace, however small, this seemed to be it.

So, I very hesitatingly voted for Trump in 2024, even though I knew he had many flaws.  I knew his tariffs would be a disaster, and I also knew that he wasn’t exactly a non-interventionist on foreign policy.  But he at least seemed to be less interventionist, and maybe there really would be a chance for greater peace.

It was not to be.  I already saw the major warning signs and shift in his administration in March 2025.  It has been all downhill from there, and there are no excuses left to make for the man.

Trump is a War Criminal

The Epstein files have made a lot of news lately, and rightly so.  They read like a novel.  Someone could have written a book about this stuff 10 years ago and people would have said it was too unrealistic.

Some people will say that other items in the news are a distraction from the Epstein files.  Some people will say that the Epstein files are a distraction from other things (aside from Pam Bondi saying that we should be talking about the Dow hitting 50,000).

I think the Epstein files are very important for multiple reasons.  On a broader scale, they show the blackmail that was taking place.  They also show just how sick some human beings can be, including people in positions of high status and power.

While the Epstein files are very important, there is a lot of speculation within them.  We are left wondering what is true and what’s not true in many cases.

There are other things where we don’t need to speculate.  In fact, Trump and others openly brag about them.

The Trump administration was blowing up boats off the coast of Venezuela.  There was no proof that these people were smuggling drugs, even though that still wouldn’t justify killing them.  Trump was ordering the murder of these people.  Some of them were probably just boaters or fishermen.

Trump has bombed 7 countries in his first year back in office.  Now he has restarted a war with Iran, which has already killed many people just in the first two days.

I wonder if Trump slept well last night knowing that he is directly responsible for the murder of many innocent people, including many children.  Trump has blood on his hands.  He is a murderer.  Not only should he not be president, he should be in jail.

I don’t have to speculate on what Trump did or didn’t do with Epstein.  I already know he is a murderer and war criminal.  If he is a pedophile too, it doesn’t add much at this point.

The Iran Lies

I have watched videos of people visiting Iran from several years ago.  I saw one video where the guy was welcomed with open arms by the Iranian people.  They knew he was American.  Most of the people there don’t hate Americans.  They distinguish between the American government and the American people. Unfortunately, most Americans aren’t as good at making this distinction with foreigners.

We are getting recycled lies from the Iraq War in 2003 for Iran today.  They are the same variations of lies.

• We have to liberate the Iranian people.
• The Iranians want to bring death to America.
• We can’t let them develop nuclear weapons or they will use them against the United States.
• Iran is the number one state sponsor of terror.

Do you know who the biggest sponsors of terrorism are today?  It is the governments of the U.S. and Israel.  Just look at the blatant killing of tens of thousands of people in Gaza.  Just look at what is happening in Iran now.

Of course, the U.S. and Israel (with U.S. funding and weapons) have the capability to bring down a reign of terror.  It’s not to say it might not be as bad or worse from some other countries if they had the means to do so.  But just based on what is actually happening, it is the U.S. and Israel that are bringing the most violence to the world right now.

The U.S. is a great place to live in many ways, and the American people in general are decent people.  This is why the war hawks have to spread lies when going to war.  They depend on the good heartedness and naivety of the American people.

Most politicians selling war do not come out and say that we are attacking another country so that we can kill a whole bunch of children and dominate the world and make the weapons companies rich (although sometimes they let those last parts slip out).  They sell war by appealing to the goodness of the American people.  They say we need to help liberate people and bring safety to us.

If You Hate the Democrats Now…

Some MAGA people think that if you criticize Trump, then you are a Democrat.  They live in this binary world of one side or the other.

Even if you live in your own Trump world and think it is ok that he is murdering children in Iran, why would you be cheering this on?  If you hate the Democrats that much, Trump couldn’t be doing a finer job for that party right now.

The Democrats were beaten.  Biden was a complete disaster.  Many people hate him for his tyrannical COVID policies, including me.  The Democrats were exposed.  They showed that they care more about transgenders competing in women’s sports and using any bathroom of their choice than they do about the American people.  They were highly unpopular in almost every way by a majority of people.

Now Trump has handed them a gift.  Trump has worked his hardest to try to vindicate all of the leftists out there with TDS.  They said Trump would be a dictator.  They said he was a bully.  They said he would act like Hitler.  They said he would try to take over the world.  Again, Trump is trying everything in his power to prove them correct.

The Democrats are still not popular.  A majority of people can’t stand the Democrats.  But when the midterm elections come in November 2026, the Democrats are going to wipe the floor with the Republicans.  They will also be seeking revenge.

Enough people who tacitly supported Trump and the Republicans will stay home.  Most of them won’t vote Democrat, but they won’t vote Republican either.  I know, and know of, several people who voted for Trump who are disgusted with what he is doing now.

The Democrats are going to take majorities in both the House and Senate.  They will probably impeach Trump, but it is questionable whether they will have the votes to actually remove him from office.

Again, Trump should be in jail for mass murder.  He should absolutely be impeached at this point for his many crimes.  But most of the Democrats voting for his impeachment will be total hypocrites.  They wouldn’t have voted to impeach Biden for the same things.

When we fall under Democratic tyranny next, you can blame all of the Republicans and MAGA who are still supporting Trump now instead of repudiating him.

Free Will

Trump had a choice to make.  He chose the evil path instead of the good path.  Even if he is being blackmailed, he could have resigned or just taken the consequences of the blackmail.

Trump is a total disgrace.  The Democrats constantly told lies to try to hurt Trump.  You don’t need to make stuff up about Trump now.  Just listen to what he brags about.  That is enough to tell you he is evil.

Every decent person should be opposing what Trump is doing to Iran right now.

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Trump’s tariffs are unconstitutional.  Just hours after the ruling was released, Trump had to let it be known that it was a dumb ruling and that the Supreme Court was doing great harm to his economic agenda.

Trump declared that he would be enacting a 10% global tariff using a different law that would only last 150 days.  A day later, Trump said it would be 15%, continuing the chaos from his earlier tariff decrees.  And maybe Trump will just try to extend the tariffs again after the 150 days is up.

This is reminiscent of the Biden era not that long ago.  Biden and his handlers threw all of these unconstitutional decrees at the wall to see what would stick.  Tell 100 million people that they have to get an injection or they aren’t allowed to work.  The Supreme Court strikes most of it down.  “Oh well, back to the drawing board.”

Biden and his handlers declare that student loans would be forgiven.  These things are just done out of thin air with no legitimacy other than it is the president saying so.  The Supreme Court strikes it down.  “Oh well, let’s try a different way to get rid of student loans.”

A Lack of Consequences

That is a big problem with our system.  There are seemingly no consequences for the people imposing these dictatorial orders.

Biden should have been impeached for his injection mandates that he tried.  He should have been impeached for a lot of things.

Trump should be impeached for bombing 7 countries on his own without any Congressional oversight.  He should be impeached for imposing his tariffs that have caused mass chaos in the business world.
The Constitution is quite clear.  Article 1, Section 8 states, “The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States”.

Tariffs are taxes on imported goods.  Only Congress has the power to enact legislation to impose tariffs.

Trump’s Picks

In the 6-3 ruling, there were two justices who voted in the majority who were appointed by Trump.  They were Amy Coney Barrett and Neil Gorsuch.  In Trumpian fashion, Trump was very critical of them.

Now Trump can blame Gorsuch and Barrett for the economy when things don’t go his way.  Just like he will also blame Mr. “Too Late” Powell at the Fed.

Does Trump have any self-realization that he nominated all of these people?

Of course, Gorsuch and Barrett got this one right, and Gorsuch’s opinion was right on.  But Trump doesn’t argue with the facts and the arguments.  He just makes baseless claims and calls names.

But even if Trump’s criticism is valid of Gorsuch, Barrett, and Jerome Powell, at what point does he blame himself?  Trump will never blame himself, but even an outsider who doesn’t dive deep into these topics should at least question Trump’s judgment in character.  Why is he going hard after the people that he nominated?

The Disappointments

This should have been a 9-0 ruling by the court.  The three dissenting justices were all Republican appointees: Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Brett Kavanaugh.

Kavanaugh was also appointed by Trump.  He has never been a strong proponent of liberty or constitutionalism.

I have long thought that Thomas is the best justice on the court.  I would have put Alito tied for second with Gorsuch.

I don’t have much respect for these people in the first place, but any respect I had for them is way down now.  To me, this is a major stain on the legacy of Clarence Thomas.  It is inexcusable to rule that these arbitrary tariffs are somehow legal.  It is actually absurd.  It is obviously partisan.

Gorsuch rises a bit in my eyes.  But I never put too much faith in any politician or elected official.

Tariffs and the Economy Ahead

This whole sage is far from over.  Trump will see what he can get away with.  When the economy goes south, he will blame it on the Fed and the Supreme Court.

The Fed is somewhat to blame, but not for the reasons that Trump says.  Trump wants lower interest rates and looser monetary policy.  That was what created the problem in the first place.

If Trump is prevented from enacting tariffs, this will make it so that there is less damage done to the economy.  It won’t save the economy, but it will stop it from being even worse.

There will be debate and discussion about the tariffs that were already collected.  Will they need to be refunded?  How would they be refunded?

Trump will blame this mess on the court, but it is Trump who created this mess.  We didn’t need this chaos.  He used tariffs as a means to bully other countries, even though it is the American people who suffer the greatest.

It seems we haven’t had “normal” times in quite a while.  A lot of Americans wish we could return to the Obama era, not because Obama was a good president, but just because there seemed to be a lot less controversy.

Some of it is the media blowing things up because they hate Trump.  But it’s not all in our imagination either.  The first Trump presidency was filled with chaos, but much of it was enabled by the establishment media making up stories about Russia and other things.

In 2020, that’s when things really blew up.  We got the COVID hysteria and the lockdowns, followed shortly by the vaccines.  We also got the protests and riots in major cities across the U.S. after the death of George Floyd in May 2020.

Then we had the actual election in November and all of the controversy with it.  Then we had January 6, 2021, where we still don’t know the extent of federal agents on the ground encouraging some of the events that day.

We suffered through 4 years of a Biden presidency where Biden was a puppet of the Democratic establishment.  He gave us vaccine mandates, which threatened about 100 million Americans by telling them they weren’t allowed to work if they didn’t take an injection in their arm.  We also had all of the other COVID insanity such as mask mandates and vaccine mandates for non-residents entering the country.

We got hit with high consumer price inflation in 2022, and there is a lot of blame to go around for that.  We also got the Russian invasion of Ukraine because the Biden people refused to talk in a civilized way with the Russians and assure them some security.

All this time, it was evident that Biden had some kind of dementia while his handlers and the media assured as that he was sharp as a tack.

Trump 2

There were reasons for cautious optimism in 2024 leading up to the election.  Trump was surrounding himself more often with seemingly decent people like Vivek Ramaswamy, Elon Musk, Tulsi Gabbard, RFK Jr., and Tucker Carlson.  Even his pick for VP was a little out of the ordinary, as Vance was not a conventional Republican establishment war hawk.

When Trump became president, things actually looked a little promising for liberty lovers.  He pardoned the J6 people.  He pardoned Ross Ulbricht.  He allowed Elon and DOGE to start uncovering massive waste and corruption.

And within a couple of months of being in office, it all went downhill quickly.  Trump now seems to be best friends with Lindsey Graham, and he seems to take his orders from Netanyahu.  Trump bombed 7 countries in his first year back in office, including kidnapping the president of Venezuela and his wife.  He is threatening a major war with Iran now.

Trump has been a total disaster for liberty in almost every way in his second term.  It is at the point where it is hard to make the claim that “at least it’s not Kamala Harris”.

Trump has become such a loose cannon and narcissist that we don’t know what he is going to do on any given day.  We can only imagine what he will do if the economy goes into a depression.

Returning to the Basics

As long as we don’t get nuclear war, then life should go on for most people.  It is wise to not make any rash decisions, especially when things are emotionally charged.

It is tempting to think things will completely blow up, which can lead to bad decision making.

We probably won’t get hyperinflation.  We probably won’t see a complete default on U.S. government debt.  We probably won’t get martial law.  We probably won’t get concentration camps other than what ICE is doing.

I think back over 25 years ago.  I heard rumors during the Clinton administration of government officials wanting to confiscate 401k accounts.

The best bet is to count on some continuity.  We have lived in an inflationary world for a long time, so you can count on that continuing.  It might get worse because of the debt and spending, but it doesn’t mean we will get hyperinflation.

You probably won’t get your student loans forgiven.  The debt will become less in real terms because of inflation, but you will still owe the money.  That goes for every other debt too.

Your best bet is to stick with the basics.  Have a well-diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, gold, and cash in the bank.  Stay out of debt.  It is still a good idea to pay off your mortgage if you can, especially if the interest rate is anything above 4% or so.

If you are working, do a good job and continue to gain skills and show your worth.  Your job probably won’t be replaced by AI anytime soon.

Your number one threat for retirement, financially speaking, is inflation.  It is probably your number one threat at any time, other than a job loss.  Inflation makes it hard to plan for the future.  It makes it hard for individuals and businesses.

Stick to the fundamentals.  Pay attention to what is happening in the world, but don’t let it drive you crazy, and don’t get too emotional over it.  People tend to make bad decisions when they are driven by too much emotion.