The presidential race is now in full swing, even though the actual general election is still well over a year away.  But the primaries are not that far away.

While I generally think presidential elections are overrated, I still find them interesting to watch.  I say they are overrated in the fact that the next president will generally continue the establishment policies of the previous one.  The president is somewhat of a figurehead and cannot stray too far from the establishment opinion.

The previous two presidential elections were extremely interesting for me because of the presence of Ron Paul.  He was giving a real libertarian message that many people had never heard before.

This election cycle is less interesting in that respect, but it is interesting that the less establishment candidates are doing so well.  It shows that public opinion really is fed up.  Between Donald Trump, Ben Carson, and Carly Fiorina – the Republicans who have never held political office – they are getting support from well over half of Republican voters right now.

Most of the focus has been on the Republican candidates.  Some of this has to do with Donald Trump, but it is also because there are about 17 major candidates.  Plus, there has already been a debate.

The race for the Democratic nomination has received less attention.  Some think it is a foregone conclusion that Hillary Clinton will get the nomination.  But as I have pointed out before, for some reason the establishment is nervous about Clinton.  Perhaps they fear that something worse will come out than just some hidden emails.

I am not downplaying the email scandal.  It reminds me of what the people are frequently told by proponents of spying: If you aren’t doing anything wrong, you should have nothing to worry about.  Of course, this is not at all true, but it is probably true that Hillary Clinton has things to hide.

It is just hard for me to take the email scandal seriously because I believe Hillary Clinton is a major criminal who should be locked up for life.  It is truly unbelievable how many people close to the Clintons either ended up dead or in jail.

But if the establishment wants to use an email scandal as their excuse to eliminate Hillary Clinton from the race, that is fine by me.

The socialist Bernie Sanders will probably not be the nominee.  The American people will not elect a self-avowed socialist.  They will put up with Keynesianism, fascism, corporatism, mercantilism, and a bunch of other things, but not outright socialism.

I think another candidate will emerge to challenge Clinton.  I don’t really see it being Joe Biden.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he throws his hat in the ring, but I doubt he would win the nomination.

Why?  As just one example, after he was creepily touching the wife of the new U.S. Defense Secretary, Jimmy Fallon had a field day with this for many days afterwards.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LZDOWIxpBgg

That leaves three other people to challenge Clinton: Lincoln Chafee, Martin O’Malley, and Jim Webb.

I just don’t think Chafee has any chance, which leaves O’Malley and Webb.  At this point, I believe that one of those two will end up seriously challenging Hillary Clinton for the nomination.  And if the email scandal gets out of hand, then one of them could end up getting it easily.

I can’t completely write off Sanders as the nominee, but I think most Democrats know he won’t win in a general election.  Remember Howard Dean.

It is too hard to say how everything will play out in the end.  There are too many variables.  At this point though, I would give a slight edge to the Republican Party.  With the way the economy is shaping up, it is going to be tough times for whoever takes office in January 2017.