As I write this, the Wisconsin votes are still being counted. But the big winners are Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz, both of whom are projected to win.
Actually, Ted Cruz isn’t really the big winner, despite what the headlines may read. Paul Ryan and the Republican establishment are the big winners.
Mathematically speaking, it is almost impossible for Ted Cruz to get a majority of the delegates secured going into the convention. He is a tool of the establishment right now. It is a long shot that he could overtake Trump in the delegate count too.
The reason Cruz is still in the race is because he is the only hope for the Republican establishment to prevent Trump from reaching a majority of delegates going into the convention. And if Trump is just one delegate short, then we can be reasonably sure that the establishment will take the nomination away from him.
The favorite right now in a brokered convention is Paul Ryan, the current Speaker of the House. Ryan was also part of the failed ticket with Mitt Romney in the last election.
Even though presidential elections are overrated in the sense that not much usually changes from one to the next, this race is particularly interesting.
The Republican primaries in 2012 were interesting only because of the presence of Ron Paul. He was a major thorn in the side of the establishment, but they correctly believed at the time that he was a long shot to actually win the nomination. He was just a threat in exposing some of their lies and bringing forth issues that otherwise wouldn’t have been discussed.
Trump on the other hand is a major threat to the establishment. He has questioned some of the main establishment beliefs and he can’t easily be bought. Trump has questioned U.S. foreign policy and its vast empire. To be sure, Trump is inconsistent. But the fact that he is the leader in the race up to this point while maintaining some of these positions is a major reversal of public opinion.
That is the main reason to be interested in presidential politics. It can give us an indication of how public opinion is changing. And the race itself can change public opinion as new ideas are accepted.
And if the entertainment on the Republican side weren’t enough, the Democratic race is still providing some entertainment.
I thought Hillary Clinton had it all wrapped up against Bernie Sanders. But Sanders is like a bug in her ear that won’t go away.
The establishment doesn’t want Sanders either, although he would be more acceptable than Trump. But I continue to say that Sanders is Clinton’s third biggest threat. The top two threats against Clinton are the FBI and the economy.
I think Sanders is staying in the race for a few reasons. He doesn’t have a lot to lose at this point. Plus, if there is an indictment against Clinton for her email scandal, then Sanders would pretty much walk into the nomination at this point. Then again, you still can’t count out the Clintons, even with an indictment by the FBI.
The delegate race between Clinton and Sanders would be close except most of the so-called super delegates are locked into Clinton at this point.
If the race does end up between Trump and Clinton, you have to wonder how many Sanders supporters will stay at home on Election Day, or maybe even vote for Trump.
Most people I know, even those who would vote for Trump, do not support everything he says or everything he stands for. There probably are some people who believe everything he says, but I don’t think that is the majority of his supporters. It probably isn’t any one issue in many cases either. Many of Trump’s supporters are with him because it is a vote against the establishment and the status quo. They know they are getting ripped off, so it is the voters extending their middle fingers in the direction of the establishment.
If Trump has the nomination taken away from him, it will just infuriate his supporters that much more. That is actually good news for libertarians. It will mean less consent for the federal government.