The 2016 elections are over, and I think most people are thankful. It has been hard to avoid the constant barrage of advertisements and telephone calls. I don’t watch a lot of the establishment media, but the little I have watched in the last few weeks has been mostly political talk.
I don’t think any of it matters as much as what it is made out to be, especially at a federal level. I like to pay attention because it does somewhat gauge the mood of the country.
Personally, I voted, but it was really only because there were a bunch of state amendments on my ballot. Of all the races, I only voted for one person in a very local seat. I did not vote for anybody in any of the federal or statewide offices.
I was tempted to vote for Ron DeSantis for governor of Florida, but it would have only been for defensive purposes. I am glad he won only because I didn’t want Andrew Gillum – the self-identified socialist – to be the governor. He probably would have had trouble enacting all of his proposed social welfare programs, but even if he had succeeded with 10%, it would have been too much. Of course, it could end up being one of those situations where the Republican comes in and does some of the bad things the Democrat said he was going to do.
The governor race was extremely tight, as was the U.S. Senate seat in Florida. It appears that the Democrat incumbent, Bill Nelson, will lose his seat, but it is still subject to a recount. I will not be sad to see him go. But for those outside of Florida, I would like to point out that Rick Scott was pretty bad on the campaign trail from a libertarian perspective. He was running ads about how he fully supports mandating health insurance companies to not discriminate based on pre-existing conditions. It wasn’t exactly a free market-oriented position.
The most notable Libertarian (large L) running for office was Gary Johnson, the two-time Libertarian Party nominee for president. Johnson ran for the U.S. Senate in New Mexico, where he was once governor. He received about 15% of the vote. Typically, this would be good for a Libertarian, but it isn’t all that strong considering he was once the governor there for 8 years.
The Trump Referendum
The election was largely seen as a referendum against Trump. Because Trump is all the talk, it caused a large turnout. I think almost everyone who voted Democrat is anti Trump. There are always a few exceptions, but I believe this to be the case.
I don’t think everyone who voted Republican is necessarily pro Trump. If anything, some are just anti anti Trump. They are tired of hearing all of the smears and attacks against Trump for every stupid little thing. They are tired of hearing the establishment in DC and the celebrities in Hollywood telling them what they are supposed to do. Voting Republican wasn’t necessarily an endorsement for Trump so much as it was a middle finger to the establishment and the establishment apologists.
The Democrats will take over control of the House of Representatives in 2019, while the Republicans will actually likely gain a couple of Senate seats.
Overall, I don’t think either side (the Republicans or Democrats) can claim a big victory. It is a divided nation, and this election just showed how divided it is. It is close to a 50/50 split.
From a libertarian point of view, there are good points and bad points. I think the very slim majority for the Democrats in the House is probably good. It puts everyone back on their heels a little bit. It’s hard to use the term gridlock, but perhaps there is a little more gridlock than before. But with the Republicans holding the Senate, it means Trump can nominate Constitution-friendly judges to the Supreme Court (and other federal courts), should any vacancies come up. It doesn’t mean he will, but he can.
Of course, in some ways, the American people all lost. Despite the supposed gridlock, there is plenty of bipartisanship when it comes to an interventionist foreign policy, invasions of privacy, continual massive spending, and massive debt. The federal budget is nowhere near balanced, and it won’t be for a long time, pending a massive economic shock.
Maybe Democrats will slow down spending in the House, meaning that the rate of increase will go down. One can hope.
Still, nobody addresses the fiscal elephant in the room of the unfunded liabilities. As baby boomers continue to hit retirement age, the costs for Medicare and Social Security continue to go up. The money to pay out for these programs will have to come from somewhere, and it probably isn’t going to be higher direct taxes any time soon. Trump’s tariffs aren’t going to fund much of this. They mostly just make things more expensive for consumers.
There will be so-called entitlement reform, but it won’t be initiated by the politicians. It will be initiated by the laws of economics. It is unsustainable. At some point, we should expect an increase in the designated retirement age, but not before we hit at least one more massive recession.
Libertarian Hope
There are a lot of things to be pessimistic about from a libertarian standpoint. However, I am still optimistic for the long run. We still have technology and open communication on our side. As Harry Browne said, we also have human nature on our side. When it comes down to it, most people want to be able to make their own choices in life.
There are a lot of bad things to say about Trump. He is certainly anti liberty in many respects. He doesn’t understand much economics, and he has largely surrounded himself by the leftover war hawks from the Bush era. The good news with the Democrats taking control of the House is that is should dampen Trump’s authoritarian streak.
Trump is helping libertarians to a certain degree though. He is helping to destroy the beast. He may not be draining the swamp, but he is at least exposing the swamp for those who care to see. Trump is helping to expose just how deep the deep state really is. It is not always intentional on his part, but he is helping to do it nonetheless.
There are going to be opportunities for libertarians to take leadership roles in the coming years, especially when the fiscal situation blows up. In the meantime, it is important that we continue to write and speak and tell the truth. We want to build our numbers, and we need principled libertarians who will not shy away from the truths that need to be spoken.
When the whole system implodes and is fully exposed, people will be looking for answers. They may finally be ready to turn elsewhere than the predictable answers from career politicians in Washington DC. At that time, a libertarian message will sell a lot better. But it is important to realize that the groundwork has to be laid in advance.
The politics can be entertaining, but I believe it is especially important now for libertarians to help educate others, although not necessarily in an abrasive way. It is time to set good examples and to be there telling the truth every step of the way.