There are many moving parts in an economy. There are forces pulling in opposite directions. This is true when it comes to price inflation and price deflation.
There are the forces of the central bank, which in the case of the United States is the Federal Reserve. The Fed controls the overnight lending rate for banks, which impacts interest rates. The Fed controls the money supply. Then you have the daily actions of millions of people. In the case of the U.S. dollar, it is more like billions of people.
It is like a constant tug-of-war between inflation and deflation. Sometimes one side gets a little extra help in pulling their way. However, it is amazing that price inflation, at least as measured by the government’s CPI numbers, has stayed in a relatively narrow range since the 2008 financial crisis.
The Fed has been able to expand its balance sheet drastically, then hit the brakes, then go again, and so on. Yet, the reported consumer price inflation has remained close to the 2% mark.
I understand that there is much dispute about the government’s numbers. It is impossible to measure price inflation exactly, and it will be different for different people because we don’t all buy the same things in the same quantities. Still, while I think the numbers may be a little understated, I don’t think they are that far off, and the trend shows that it is fairly steady.
Even if a 2% CPI really meant 3%, then it means that the CPI has stayed somewhere around 1% and 3%, despite the wild fluctuations (mostly upward) in the balance sheet. Of course, asset prices have been more of a roller coaster, especially when you look at real estate and stocks.
This relative tameness is just what the Fed wants. It means it is getting away with its tricks. The Fed has managed to create $6 trillion out of thin air since 2008 with relatively low price inflation. Although it has done great damage in redistributing wealth and misallocating resources, most people do not blame the Fed for stagnant living standards.
The Current Numbers
The latest CPI data was released for October 2020. The CPI came in at zero percent. The year-over-year CPI is at 1.2%.
I find the median CPI is more stable and probably more accurate. That came in at 0.2% for October, and the year-over-year median CPI is at 2.5%
This has been typical, where the median CPI runs above 2% and the CPI runs below 2%.
Meanwhile, the Fed’s balance sheet has seemed to slowly resume its climb upward. It is now well above the $7 trillion mark. This is quite astounding.
Despite the unprecedented lockdowns in 2020, stocks are booming and hitting all-time highs. It doesn’t make much sense that they are booming because of news of a vaccine while many areas are imposing new lockdowns or restrictions.
The only explanation I have is that the Fed has created a lot of new money out of thin air in 2020, and a lot of this money went directly to people in the form of stimulus checks and unemployment checks.
A Look Ahead
So what’s in store for us in 2021?
Let’s see. We still don’t have an official president-elect despite what the media claims. This could be a source of chaos in December and leading into January.
We have the continued threats of lockdowns imposed by governors and mayors. If Biden becomes president, then we have the threat of some kind of an attempt for a national lockdown. Biden’s advisors think it’s just fine to make everyone stay at home for 4 to 6 weeks. After all, the Fed can just create more money and hand it out.
It is lost on these people that the Fed doesn’t actually create food or medication or oil or any household goods. You can send everyone checks, but it won’t mean much if there is nothing to buy.
I believe there remains a major threat of a stock market crash. When it finally comes, it will probably come hard and fast. I am not advocating shorting the market right now, or at least not in any substantial way. It is hard to fight the trend right now. But you should be well diversified out of stocks.
I think there will be a continued struggle between price inflation and price deflation. I think the economy is going to get worse before it gets better. Sure, it would help if all government lockdowns ended and the threats of government lockdowns ended. But we shouldn’t expect things to go back to the way they were in February 2020. It is already way too late for many thousands of businesses that have permanently shut down.
When things get tight again, people are going to stop spending on non-essential things. This will be another round of tough times for businesses to say the least. This will be deflationary.
However, in reaction, we should expect the Fed to keep digitally printing new money. This will be a pull for the inflation side.
I expect the inflation side to eventually pull hard enough that we see price inflation much higher than we have seen any time in the last decade. Maybe we’ll eventually see something like the 1970s again. In the short term however, I tend to think we will continue to see relatively tame price inflation due to economic fears. If people are so fearful that they aren’t spending much money on non-necessities, then this will bring prices down.
I expect that prices will rise for essential goods (as determined by consumers, not by the state). In other words, we could easily see a scenario where the prices for haircuts and car stereo systems are going down, while prices for food and toilet paper are going up.
I am still bullish on gold over the next several years. I believe it is important to have gold and gold-related investments as a form of wealth protection. There will be ups and downs, but I believe there will be more ups than downs. Plus, it is somewhat like an insurance policy.
Even in a more deflationary situation in which gold goes down, the Fed is gong to step in and overcompensate. So if gold goes down significantly in price, it probably won’t stay down for long.
I also don’t think you can go wrong by buying extra household goods that you can store and will use in the future. This can include things like toilet paper, paper towels, spices, shaving cream, razor blades, soap, shampoo, and canned goods. It is doubtful that any of these things will be cheaper one year from now. And after what we saw in March and April, it’s not a bad idea to have some extra supplies on hand.
The only certainty at this point is uncertainty and chaos. I hope Americans can stop the slide into authoritarianism. We are going to have to deal with economic problems ahead no matter what. The best you can do is to prepare for yourself and your family and to be an advocate for liberty when people are looking for answers as to what happened.