The worst part of a Joe Biden presidency would be another major war.  As I write this, Donald Trump has less than 48 hours left in office.  Assuming nothing really crazy happens in the next 2 days, Trump will be the first president in at least 4 decades to not start a new major war.

Trump failed to end the wars he inherited.  The military continued to drop a lot of bombs on his watch.  The war making and starvation against the people of Yemen continued.  Trump got close to an all-out war by assassinating an Iranian official.

So Trump has been bad in many ways with regard to foreign policy, but he has probably been the best over the last 4 decades.  He was definitely better than any president since Reagan.

I fear that will change under Biden.  Biden is an establishment guy.  I don’t think he is making many decisions, if any, at this point. If his handlers want another war, then another war we’ll have.

Just about every Biden cabinet pick and advisor is there for his or her diversity (not diversity of thought) or for his or her reliable history in making war.

Maybe the establishment has its hands full right now and won’t move on to yet another war. It’s possible.  If there is another war, then it will obviously impact the people of that country the most.  Americans aren’t typically directly impacted by American wars except for the occasional blowback and the hidden costs.  They obviously aren’t good for the people and their families who get deployed, but the vast majority of Americans feel no direct impact.

They are impacted financially, but they don’t really know it.  The war spending can be financed through debt and inflation. It doesn’t work like a reverse UBI where the government comes knocking on your door asking you for your share of the costs of war.  You don’t have to write out a check for $800 in order to deploy the troops and drop the bombs.  The impact is subtle through monetary inflation, which makes people’s dollars worth less over time.

Domestic Policies

So while I think another war would be the most disastrous thing, especially if it is with another country that can actually fight back, in most cases it won’t be something that impacts Americans the most.

The biggest focus in terms of the economy is on the coronavirus and the lockdowns.  Up until now, the lockdowns have been implemented at state and local levels.  Governors and mayors did what Trump didn’t do, even though the federal government was recommending and pushing for lockdowns back in March of 2020.

I have heard speculation that Biden may try to implement a nationwide lockdown for something like 6 weeks.  It would probably happen around the first of February.  I have no idea if this will happen.  I suspect that states like Florida and South Dakota will ignore it.

I think the big threat here is that it will force the hands of major companies to comply.  It isn’t that much different from Twitter and Facebook shutting down Donald Trump.  There will be a culture where it will be expected that you will shut down. Big companies and big organizations will likely comply.

Maybe this will be Biden’s excuse to say that he did something bold and effective. After the flu season ends, Biden and company can declare victory, at least in the short term, until they need another crisis to exercise more power.

It’s also possible Biden will do something much more mild, like asking everyone to wear a mask for 100 days.  Of course, that would probably lead to fewer people wearing masks, but most everyone is playing pretend these days anyway.  He can declare victory over the virus after his mask ask.

Moral Hazardous Bailouts

In the longer term, aside from a new war, I think the most disastrous thing to come out of Biden may be a massive bailout of the states.

To be sure, the lockdown states have already been getting bailed out to a large degree.  It was governors and mayors that locked things down, so why is it the federal government bailing everyone out?  This includes expanded unemployment benefits and business bailouts.  There are more failing businesses and unemployed people in the lockdown states.

So the lockdown states are getting rewarded for their bad policies.  It is a form of moral hazard.  They can keep going with their bad policies if a lot of the people being harmed by them are getting bailed out.

I think Biden’s bailouts will be worse and more direct.  There will be money going directly to highly corrupt governments like those in California, Illinois, and New York.  Biden is going to reward his blue states that are heavily populated. They will be rewarded with your tax money for their totalitarian policies.

It allows the bad policies to go on longer than they should.  It allows the corrupt governments to keep being corrupt and not face as severe budget woes.

I can’t predict what will come of this administration except that it will be fully run by the establishment and we will probably see more unprecedented spending.  The unprecedented policies from the Federal Reserve will also likely continue.

America will survive Joe Biden.  America will even survive Kamala Harris.  But we are likely to see some tough times ahead.  They will only be able to blame Trump for so long.

The American people need to wake up and stop accepting these lockdowns and other restrictions done in the name of science.  They are totalitarian edicts, and Biden is going to help prop up these authoritarians with direct and indirect bailouts.