If you follow Austrian school economics, you know that most predictions are impossible to make. It is no coincidence that Mises’ most famous work was titled Human Action. The very fact that humans act freely makes most things impossible to predict.
Still, we can use the information that we have, along with knowing how incentives work for people, and we can make some good guesses about the future.
Some things are trickier than others. It is a near certainty that Biden and Fauci are not going to be declaring themselves to be libertarians tomorrow morning. It is a bit less certain that Trump and Biden will be running for the presidency in 2024.
Politics
The one prediction I feel good about making is that the Republicans will take back the majority in Congress in both the House and the Senate. I think the left has overplayed their hand, especially when it comes to the virus and cultural issues.
The Democrats, and some Republicans, are obsessing about vaccine mandates and the anniversary of January 6. Most people don’t really care about what happened on January 6, 2021. They don’t see it as relevant to their lives. They know that “American democracy” was not in a serious threat. They care more about the food prices when they go to the store.
People do care about the vaccine mandates. There is probably nobody on this planet who would quit their job because their employer is not forcing vaccination. There are millions of people who will quit their job or be fired because their employer will force vaccination to remain an employee.
In other words, this issue will only fire up the people who are deeply impacted by it. Those are the people who don’t want to get jabbed. They know that it is mostly the tyrants on the left who are pushing for the vaccine mandates. None of these people will be voting for a Democrat.
Biden continues to act like a tyrant, and he is deeply unpopular. Harris is no better. With price inflation raging, the voters are going to take it out on the Democrats in November 2022, as well they should.
I do not hold any great hope for the Republicans in Congress, but at least it will provide some gridlock. It won’t gridlock the spending and some of the worst elements of the federal government, but it will hopefully at least pull back the edicts coming from Biden.
Some Republicans like Liz Cheney may find themselves in trouble too. Maybe this is just wishful thinking, but some of the ones who have sided with Democrats over the last year may find themselves primaried.
Beyond 2022, I doubt we are going to see a Biden and Trump rematch in 2024. Biden is deeply unpopular. He is also old, and he acts older. Trump is old, but he acts younger than his age. Trump has energy.
I don’t think Biden will run again. If his wife doesn’t make sure of it, then the Democratic Party establishment will.
Trump may run again, but there is no guarantee he will win the nomination. He keeps obsessing over his great vaccines, while almost half of his supporters want nothing to do with them. Meanwhile, the Omicron variant (if it really is a variant and not just another version of the common cold) is making it obvious that the COVID vaccines are ineffective.
Trump says he is against the mandates as an after thought. But he will go on and on about Operation Warp Speed. It was an operation warp speed to fund the vaccine companies and to force medical experiments on a mass scale.
I feel like Trump has lost his way. Even on the January 6 events, he doesn’t go to bat for the way the political prisoners are being treated. Most of these people were duped, and they are guilty of no more than trespassing. But Trump just talks about how the election was stolen. He is more concerned about his own ego than going to bat for his followers. This is starting to show to his own followers. If Trump doesn’t straighten up, he is going to become less popular with his base.
Vaccine Mandates
The U.S. Supreme Court is hearing at least two cases. These cases are extremely important and will likely set a precedent for other scenarios. There are 6 judges on the court who are Republican appointees. I think Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh (in that order) are likely to favor striking down the vaccine mandates. Barrett and Roberts are a little less certain. These may not be black and white decisions either.
If these get struck down, then I think all of the federal mandates will be gone in short order. That would be a major victory. A favorable Supreme Court decision does not mean that local mandates will be gone. Places like New York City and Chicago will keep the mandates. If you are a resident in these places, consider the ramifications carefully.
If the Supreme Court does not strike down these mandates, we will see major chaos. There will be millions of people who lose their jobs. It will have dramatic effects on personal liberty and the economy.
The reason there haven’t been massive protests in the U.S. similar to Europe is because things aren’t as bad here. If these vaccine mandates stick, expect to see millions of people disobey. It will be their number one issue by far, and they will seek revenge on the tyrants. It will make 2022 worse than the previous two years for almost everybody.
Investments
I have no idea.
I can’t even begin to predict whether the mania will continue, or if this will be the year when the Everything Bubble finally starts to pop.
I am cheating on this prediction because we are already a week into the new year. Bitcoin and other so-called cryptocurrencies are falling.
Stocks have been volatile, but the indexes are still near all-time highs.
I can only caution you here. The bull market may continue, but is the reward worth the risk?
I know the critics will say that those of us warning about a potential crash have been wrong. But unless someone is telling you to short the market, it isn’t necessarily wrong to warn others about the reality.
In 2021, you would have been better off in stocks than in cash or gold or bonds. But it doesn’t mean it was wrong of anyone to not be heavily invested in stocks.
If you have a homeowners insurance policy and you don’t make any claims, does this make you wrong for having paid the premium on the policy? I mean, you lost money that you didn’t have to lose.
We go back to human action. The future is uncertain. We can’t predict what will happen, so we have to prepare accordingly.
I think the crypto market will eventually collapse, and I don’t use that word lightly. Bitcoin may or may not be a part of it. It’s just a question of whether it will happen in 2022.
Real estate is in a massive bubble, but it could keep going if the Fed keeps creating new money out of thin air and keeps interest rates artificially low.
The same goes for stocks. They are easier to get into and out of as compared to real estate, but they still represent a big risk.
I still advocate a permanent portfolio for diversification and wealth preservation.
The yield curve hasn’t been inverted since 2019. We saw a very brief recession in March 2020, which is blamed on the virus. But it was very brief because the Fed had its foot on the accelerator at the start.
It is unclear if we need to see another inverted yield curve before the next recession. If so, then that recession will not happen in 2022. But we live in strange times, so anything could happen.
It would not surprise me if the cyrpto market crashes without stocks and real estate going with it, at least initially.
There is always money to be made in any market, but I am extremely bearish on so-called cyrptocurrencies at this point.
I believe gold is the best buy right now, but that is no guarantee that it will finally explode upwards in price this year.
Conclusion
2022 is an important year for liberty. We either beat back the COVID tyrants, or our liberty will suffer greatly, and perhaps somewhat permanently.
The rest of the world is depending on America. Many of the other first-world countries are turning into totalitarian societies. See Austria and Australia for examples. Even Canada is really bad.
If America can break out of the COVID tyranny, I think it will set an example for the rest of the world to break free.
I am very pessimistic at times, while I am very optimistic at other times. We are fighting great tyranny, but at the same time it is clear that many people have shifted their opinions and see the federal government as largely evil.
More and more people are withdrawing their consent. It is setting a foundation for greater liberty in the future. We just have to get through this very hard time.