The 2024 presidential race is heating up. It does seem to be more interesting than normal.
There are interesting Republicans with Trump, DeSantis, and Ramaswamy. They each have their good points and bad points, but at least they aren’t all bad points like Biden.
On the Democratic side, there is Robert Kennedy Jr. Even though the DNC, the corporate media, and the rest of the establishment will try to censor him, there is alternative media to the rescue. When the establishment can no longer ignore him, they will smear him.
On the Libertarian Party side, there is the possibility of Dave Smith, who is a great spokesman for liberty. I could envision Dave not running for the LP ticket if he thought Kennedy had a decent chance to win. It’s not that Kennedy is a libertarian, but he has the potential to restore a lot of sanity to our world when we really need it.
Kennedy actually tweeted a link to a LewRockwell.com article about the middle class being decimated. This is a good sign in several ways. Just the fact that Kennedy is mentioning an article from a more radical libertarian website is something. It is also encouraging that one of his talking points will be how the middle class is getting destroyed.
It is interesting to see the different candidates and how it might play out. A lot of focus is on personalities, which do tend to matter a lot in politics. But one thing that is largely being ignored is that Biden and the Democrats (excluding Kennedy) might be in real trouble in 2024 if we hit a deep recession. With the inverted yield curve, this is looking highly likely.
It’s the Economy, Stupid
The focus on the economy by James Carville and Bill Clinton in 1992 wasn’t wrong. It’s not that they had the right answers, but it appeals to people’s self interest.
It’s nice for some people to wave a flag for Ukraine, but are they really willing to sacrifice their lifestyle to funnel tens of billions of dollars to the military-industrial complex and a bunch of corrupt oligarchs in Ukraine?
A Bill Clinton presidency actually sounds pretty good these days compared to Biden. Even though Clinton was and is a criminal, at least he cared about how others thought of him. So he wasn’t purposely trying to destroy civilization.
The middle class is already getting hammered with high price inflation and wages lagging behind. If you throw in a major recession and deflating asset prices within the next year, it is hard to see how Biden wins re-election. It is hard to see how any Democrat not named Kennedy would win the presidency. The only reason Kennedy would have a chance is because he has already separated himself from the establishment Democrats.
The Winning Message
It’s sad to say, but a family of four making around $100,000 is barely getting by these days. It’s not that such a family would struggle to put food on the table, but there is an expectation to have some joy in life.
When you take out taxes, health insurance premiums, other insurance costs, housing, and food, it doesn’t leave that much.
Sure, you can cancel cable and streaming services, give up your smartphone, and never eat out at a restaurant, but who wants to live like that?
You can say “no” to taking the kids to their favorite amusement park. You can cancel all of their sports and other activities and not throw any birthday parties. If you do all of that, you will be just fine.
Is that a winning message for middle class America? “Just suck it up and live very frugally, and you will get by just fine. We have to send more money to Ukraine.”
This is partly why Donald Trump won in 2016. If Rand Paul had sold this populist message, maybe he would have stood a chance.
This is why Dave Smith and Robert Kennedy have a good chance of really stirring things up in this presidential election. Neither one has a good chance to win, but they sure can disrupt the establishment.
While it is very important to oppose the wars and infringements on civil liberties, the winning message is to tie it all back to the struggling middle class.
Sometimes people just want acknowledgement that life is a struggle. If you start there, then a certain trust is automatically built. I don’t think anyone actually believes that Biden is working hard to help the lives of ordinary Americans.
In 2024, it is possible to have a pro liberty message and a populist message at the same time. It starts with acknowledging that the middle class is being hit hard.