Robert Kennedy Jr. has made it official.  He is dropping out of the Democratic primaries and running for president as an independent.

It is somewhat rational given that the Democratic establishment is firmly against Kennedy.  In fact, they may be more scared of him becoming president than Donald Trump.  While Kennedy is not great with regard to foreign policy (see more commentary below), he is a major threat to the establishment and the military-industrial complex.

There was talk of Kennedy seeking the nomination of the Libertarian Party, but he probably realized that it wouldn’t be easy to get the nomination.  The principled libertarians in the party would have had to accept a non-libertarian as the nominee for strategic reasons.  Of course, this is what the LP has mostly done since 2008, but that was before the Mises Caucus took control of the party.

Kennedy has become much better on the issues from a libertarian standpoint, but he is not a libertarian yet.  It probably would have been difficult for his ego for someone with his stature to not win the nomination of a minor party.  The only reason it made sense for him is because the LP has ballot access in most states.  The LP candidate typically shows up on the ballot of every state, or at least most states, in presidential elections.

Getting on the ballot in 50 states is going to be a challenge for Kennedy.  He will have to dump resources just into that, whereas the two major parties have no issue with that.  (It is possible that Trump could have issues getting on all of the ballots, but that is because the establishment is trying to rig it against him.)

It will be interesting to see how much traction Kennedy gets.  He is obviously a major threat to the ruling elite because he dares to take on the deep state, the military-industrial complex, and the national security state.  It will get really interesting if he manages to get on to the debate stage with the nominees of the other two parties.

Cautiously Optimistic

While Kennedy has many good qualities and is refreshing in this time of chaos, we must remember that he is not a libertarian.  He is an old-school Democrat who still believes in the power of the state to do good.  If he became president, Kennedy would likely restore some sanity, although we should certainly expect the powers-that-be to cause chaos just as they did with Trump.

The lying liars of the ruling class might just make up the same stories with a different name.  They’ll say that Kennedy colluded with the Russians to steal the election, and a significant percentage of the American public will buy it.

The reason to be optimistic about Kennedy is because he is in the race.  He is questioning certain narratives.  He actually understands some of the history in Ukraine.  He understands that the U.S. government likely helped orchestrate a coup there in 2014.  He understands that the Ukrainian government was allowing the slaughter of ethnic Russians in the east, and he isn’t afraid to say it out loud.

So even if Kennedy doesn’t get elected, if he can reach people who don’t typically read alternative media, he can change opinions.  This is what matters most in the long run for liberty.

I understand that Kennedy has said some bad things in the past with regard to climate change and welfare in general.  I think he has gotten better on those issues.  Still, he isn’t a libertarian.

And for this reason, we need to be careful not to make him out better than he is.

Not a Non-Interventionist Foreign Policy

Since the attack on Israel by Hamas, Kennedy released a statement referring to it as “unprovoked”.  He also said that “we” need to do everything we can to help Israel.

Maybe I will write more about this in a future post, but his statement was inaccurate and, unfortunately, quite hawkish.  The term “unprovoked” has been used numerous times to describe Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.  It is a lot of things, but “unprovoked” is definitely not one of them.

The same goes for the situation in Israel.  There is never justification to attack innocent people, but that doesn’t make it unprovoked.  The Israeli government has killed and oppressed many Palestinians over the decades.  It wasn’t as if Israel was sitting there minding its own business until October 2023 when they were suddenly attacked.

Kennedy said that Israel has a right to self-defense, but unfortunately this has another meaning than actual self-defense when spoken by a politician about another country.  It is a collectivist version of self-defense.

The Israelis should have a right to defend themselves against those who are doing them harm.  But if they just drop bombs on the Palestinians and kill innocent people in return, that is not self-defense.  I fear that Kennedy is like the typical politician and is giving the Israeli government the green light for killing innocent people on “the other side”.

As Dave Smith recently pointed out in a tweet: “As the great @jeffdeist once told me: they all disappoint.”

The Politics of Kennedy as an Independent

The political ramifications of a Kennedy run are interesting.  In some ways, I would have preferred that he stayed as a Democrat to challenge Joe Biden.

There is a good chance the Democrats will dump Biden off the ticket.  They can do so at any time.  It is not Biden’s choice.  They can sink him in an instant if they want to.  They just want the person who can best beat Trump (and now Kennedy) and implement their chaotic and anti-civilization agenda.

If they dump Biden, they want to wait until closer to the convention.  They don’t want any debates with Kennedy there.  With Kennedy out of the running for the Democrats, they are more likely to get rid of Biden earlier if that is the preference of the ruling class.

Dave Smith has pointed out before that he likes that Tucker Carlson is a Republican and not a full-blown libertarian.  Carlson appeals to Republicans, but he makes them better on important issues like foreign policy.  If he was a hardcore libertarian, he would probably have less influence.

The same could be said for Kennedy as a Democrat.  Not all Democrats are zombies when it comes to politics.  There are some Democrats who are dissatisfied with Biden and the current state of the Democratic Party.  Kennedy can appeal to those people and make them better.  Maybe he can still do it as an independent, but it isn’t clear.

Some have suggested that having Kennedy run as an independent will help Trump get elected.  I think a lot of people are quietly reassessing this picture.

Let’s say that it is Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy.  If it isn’t Biden, it will be some other establishment Democrat like Gavin Newsom.  Kennedy and Trump are both seen as anti-establishment, even if it isn’t completely true.  They are anti-establishment compared to whoever the Democrats put up.

It isn’t hard to imagine that Kennedy will siphon more votes away from Trump than Biden.  It is quite possible we could see a scenario similar to 1992, except Kennedy may do even better than Ross Perot.

It is easy to see Trump getting 30% of the vote, Kennedy getting 30% of the vote, and Biden getting near 40%.  Biden would win, even though the anti-establishment candidates got 60% of the vote.

This isn’t a criticism of Kennedy running as an independent, and I am certainly not telling anyone the best strategy going forward.  I will likely support Michael Rectenwald, but my vote is another matter.  The next year really will make for some incredible political theater.  It is a scary time, but there is also hope that people are revolting against the status quo.