Since I am a student of Austrian school economics, I understand that predictions are impossible, or at least they are impossible to guarantee they will come true.  Just as economics depends on human action, nearly all future events depend on human action.

Still, there are some things we can predict with much certainty, even if there isn’t a 100% guarantee.  For example, I could predict that Hillary Clinton will not be running for the Libertarian Party nomination for president.  That is about as close to 100% guarantee that you can get.  It is like predicting that the sun will rise in the east.

There is a prediction for 2024 that I can make that is almost certain.  2024 is going to be a chaotic year.  This definitely includes politically in the United States.  It will most likely include the economy and investment markets as well.

Politics

My prediction is that Trump will get the Republican nomination for president.  With much less certainty, I predict that he will win the general election in 2024.  And when I say “win”, I mean he will actually take the presidency in January 2025.

I give this maybe a 50% chance of happening.  It is like betting on a football team to win the Super Bowl at the beginning of the season.  The favorite to win it all will usually have less than a 50% chance because there are so many teams (32 in the NFL).

In this case, there are many different scenarios that could play out.  Biden may or may not be the Democratic nominee on the ballot in November.  It depends on his health.  It depends on how fast his brain deteriorates.  It depends on whether the establishment decides to toss him out.  It may also depend on how much cover he can get for all of his criminal activity in Ukraine and in general.

If Biden is tossed out of the race (it won’t be his choice), then there are many variables on who will be the nominee.  Still, to a certain degree, they will have to run on the coattails of Biden.  I will discuss the economy in the next section, but the economy will also play a big factor in the election.

With Trump, there are many variables as well.  He seems like an iron man, but it is always possible he could have health issues.  It is possible he could be legally (illegally) removed from ballots.  It is possible the powers-that-be try to eliminate him in the worst way (think 1963).

If Trump is alive and well when the general election comes in November, I do think he will win.  There is the variable of election fraud, but election fraud would be more difficult this time around.  Also, if the margin of victory is great enough, election fraud becomes much harder to decide it all.  You can only change or add so many votes in the big cities of the swing states.

Bad News No Matter What

The bad news is that no matter who wins in November, there will be total chaos.  If Biden or Biden’s replacement wins, then the party of chaos will continue the chaos.  It will give Biden or whoever the green light for more executive orders, more wars, and more illegal activities.  If you think the vaccine mandates, Ukraine spending, weaponization of the “Justice” Department, and attempts at student loan forgiveness was totalitarian, wait until another 4 years.

If Trump wins the presidency, then the establishment will continue the chaos in every way possible.  They will continue to make up stories about Trump.  Maybe they’ll resurrect the Russia collusion hoax.  Maybe they’ll go for another two impeachments if they can get a few Republicans in the House to openly turn.  You can be sure that the deep state will be working overtime to make everything as chaotic as possible.

Who knows what they will try?  It could be another war, which is especially scary.  It could be another virus.  It could be climate change.  It could be race riots built on the riots of 2020.  It could be many things all at once just to see what works best.  You can be sure that the power elite who are threatened by Trump disrupting the status quo and occasionally telling the truth will do everything they can to disrupt Trump and punish the 80 million or so people who voted for him.

If Trump is prevented from taking office in some way by the establishment, those 80 million people are not going away.  They will become more radicalized and defiant.  The tensions will only increase.

And if Trump does take office and everything is thrown at him, it will again just make his supporters that much more aware of the evil people in Washington DC.  It will make them more defiant.

No matter what, it is going to be total chaos.  You can’t prepare for what exactly that will entail, but you can prepare mentally that there will be chaos.  You can also prepare financially to a certain extent.

Economics and Investments

2024 could be the year that the Everything Bubble finally implodes.  There was an inverted yield curve for all of 2023 while the Fed hiked its target interest rate.

Even though the Fed will likely stop hiking rates, it is probably too late to do anything to stop the coming recession unless the Fed has an excuse to take drastic action as it did in March 2020.

The rate of price inflation may finally come down to 2% or less with a recession.  That is the good news.  That will be the only good news that most Americans see.

Stocks are likely to get hit hard.  Housing prices are likely to come down.  This could benefit new buyers.  Gold is a hedge against uncertainty, but it also tends to go down in dollar price when there is a recession.  I expect something similar to 2008/ 2009 where it goes down briefly until the Fed starts pumping in new money again.

Bonds are tricky, but a recession will probably bring yields down, which means the price of bonds will go up.  This may or may not be temporary depending on the Fed’s reaction.

Again, these are very hard predictions to make because there are so many variables.  Just the Fed’s initial reaction to a downturn will mean a lot.

A bad economy is going to hurt the Democrats more than the Republicans.  Even though the White House doesn’t have that much control over the economy, that is the party that typically gets blamed.  It really is the fault of Congress too for spending so much money, but I won’t be sad to see Biden get blamed because he is such a disaster.

As the late great Harry Browne taught, you can’t predict the future, but you can prepare for it.  With financial investments, I still recommend at least a portion go into something like a permanent portfolio.

Harry Browne also wrote that you shouldn’t ask if a particular scenario will happen.  You should ask if it can happen, and if it can happen, are you prepared for it?

These predictions are useless unless you do something with them.  You should at least mentally prepare.  But if you prepare for political chaos and hard economic times ahead, you should be concentrating on paying down debt, having an emergency fund, having extra items stored (remember toilet paper), and being in good health.  Even if everything is miraculously great in 2024, you can’t go wrong with those preparations.