I hate politics because politics is a game of who gets to use violence over others (i.e., participate in state activities). Yet, I am a bit of a political junkie. It seems contradictory. Even though we live in a world that I wish was vastly more libertarian, it is something of a game to me as well.
I haven’t been heavily paying attention to the presidential race up to this point because there isn’t a lot to analyze at this point. I followed the Republican debates without Trump only because I was curious what would be said. They were only interesting because of Vivek Ramaswamy.
It has been quite obvious that Trump is the easy frontrunner. He has the support of a majority of the Republican electorate, which means he should easily get the nomination.
It was puzzling to me back in 2008 when John McCain took the Republican nomination. It was less puzzling in 2012 with Romney, only because I had already seen what happened in 2008. McCain got a plurality of votes in some of the primaries, but the numbers weren’t that impressive. I remember seeing him get something like 30% of the vote, yet candidates just started dropping out of the race and assuming it was McCain’s. I’m screaming at the television, “That means that 70% of the Republicans want someone else.”
I really followed closely in those days because of Ron Paul. That’s what made it all interesting. Even with Iowa, the media tried to ignore him. When they didn’t ignore him, they often tried to smear him or dismiss him. They did to Ron Paul what eventually didn’t work against Donald Trump in 2016.
Trump Victor
As expected, Trump easily won the Iowa Caucuses. He received about 51% of the vote. Ron DeSantis was in a distant second with 21.2%. The horrible Nikki Haley, who is fully backed by the establishment, got 19.1%. Vivek got a somewhat disappointing 7.7%.
The results show Trump getting 20 delegates. DeSantis got 9 delegates, and Haley got 8 delegates. Vivek got 3 delegates.
This was an absolute clear win for Trump, no matter how the media or other candidates try to spin it. The reason DeSantis and Haley haven’t dropped out yet is because they are banking on the deep state to take out Trump in some way. If Trump lands in jail or is off the ballot or is unable to run for some reason, then each of them are hoping to step in. In Haley’s case, she may even end up running outside of the Republican Party.
If Trump had to drop out right now, I think most of his support would go to DeSantis over Haley. That’s the good news.
Vivek
Almost immediately after the results came in, Vivek dropped out of the race and announced his support for Donald Trump. It may have been bad timing by Trump to attack Vivek for the first time just a few days prior.
I have thought all along that Vivek was trying to position himself as a possible running mate for Trump. I doubt this is the direction Trump will go, although it would make me more optimistic about a Trump presidency if he did choose Vivek as a running mate. The only realistic scenario I can envision that’s better is having Tucker Carlson.
There was a lot of theorizing that Vivek was trying to position himself as Trump’s backup in case Trump couldn’t run. But that is obviously not the case now because Vivek dropped out. If Trump is forced out for some reason, now there is just Haley and DeSantis to choose from.
Vivek’s showing of 7.7% in Iowa is probably indicative of where he stands nationally. It is the more liberty-minded people who favor Vivek. I think most of his supporters will go to Trump or to nobody at all in the Republican field.
This just means that Trump will get even more support and will be well above the 50% threshold. I would imagine a good portion of DeSantis supporters would go to Trump if DeSantis drops out, but not as many as Vivek. Most of the “never Trump” vote within the Republican Party is going towards Haley at this point.
I am thankful that Vivek ran. He has a bright future ahead of him. Maybe he will get a position in a Trump administration. I think Trump could put him in there as press secretary just to be the media’s worst nightmare.
I have not been shy about pointing out Vivek’s flaws. He has been bad on the issue of China. He has been bad on Israel, although much better than all of the others. He has been bad a few times talking about bombing Mexican drug cartels. Still, overall, Vivek was a breath of fresh air. He helped expose Nikki Haley, and he wasn’t afraid to take on the media. He wasn’t afraid to point out the climate hoax or the Russia collusion hoax or point out that January 6th was probably an inside job.
I look forward to seeing what the future holds for Vivek and hopefully moving closer to libertarianism.
2024 – We Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet
Iowa was nothing compared to what is to come. The biggest contest of 2024 is between Trump and the deep state. The deep state includes the establishment media.
They are trying everything to keep Trump away from the presidency. They want to throw him in jail. They want to keep him off the ballots. They will do anything they can get away with.
Meanwhile, we have no idea if Biden will actually be the Democratic nominee. And if he isn’t, how will the powers-that-be replace him? And who will be chosen?
We also have a bit of a wildcard with Robert Kenney Jr. running. I wish he was still running as a Democrat to disrupt things there. After the October 7th attacks in Israel, I felt like the steam came out of the Kennedy campaign. He repeated the establishment talking points, and he stopped going on alternative media outlets. For that reason, he will probably be less of a factor than I originally thought.
We also have an economy that is anything but strong. Middle class America feels the pain of price inflation, and the bubble economy could blow at any moment.
That is a lot going on just to get to the general election. We have no idea what will happen once the results are counted or are being counted. Will either side accept the results?
There are so many variables right now that are out of the ordinary that Iowa just seems bland to me. Trump is the heavy favorite in the Republican Party. In any other year, the other candidates probably would have dropped out. But this is not a normal year. The big stuff is yet to come.