With the assassination attempt against Donald Trump and the withdrawal of Joe Biden from the presidential race, Trump’s pick for running mate has perhaps gotten a little less attention than otherwise would have been the case.  In some ways, Trump’s pick of J. D. Vance is more relevant now because of the real possibility of the deep state taking out Trump.

Perhaps it is just a coincidence that the assassination attempt took place just before the Republican National Convention and the naming of Trump’s running mate.  If Trump had actually been killed, you have to wonder if anyone knew Vance was the pick and if it would be believed that Vance was the pick.

Even if Trump does end up winning the presidency and taking office and surviving four years, this is an important pick.  It would seem to make Vance the preliminary frontrunner for 2028.

I had said many months ago that my decision on whether to vote for Trump would largely hinge on his pick for vice president.  With the pick of Vance, it doesn’t add a lot more clarity for me.

If Trump had picked Tim Scott or Marco Rubio, then I would have seen it as the same old thing from 8 years ago.  It would mean that Trump had learned nothing and would just surround himself by war hawks who only pretend to like him.

If Trump had picked a hardcore libertarian as his running mate, then I would have seen a changed Donald Trump that I could get behind in spite of his flaws.  Of course, that was never a realistic possibility.

There was an outside possibility that Trump could pick a libertarian-leaning conservative such as Vivek Ramaswamy.  There was also talk of Tulsi Gabbard, who tends to be non-interventionist in terms of foreign policy, at least compared to the others who were supposedly on Trump’s list.

I would put Vance in between the Ramaswamy/ Gabbard category and the Scott/ Rubio category.  He is a mixed bag in a lot of ways.  In some ways, he is perhaps the best we could have realistically hoped for, but maybe that’s not saying much.

In the Mold of Trump

I have heard that Donald Trump Jr. favored Vance.  That wouldn’t surprise me.  Donald Trump Jr. is the most liberty leaning person in the family.  He isn’t quite the alpha male that his father is (who is?), but he tends to be better on the issues than even his father.  He is definitely better than his sister Ivanka and her husband.

I see many similarities between Vance and Donald Trump.  They are both populists to a certain extent.  They have a certain anti-establishment streak.  They both preach something of an America First policy.

Unfortunately, they somewhat share the same bad attributes too.  They are inconsistent on foreign policy and tend to be hawkish when it involves the Israeli state.  They say they won’t fund Ukraine or they give some kind of nuanced position on it, but there is no such talk when it comes to Israel.  Vance has been quite contradictory on this issue, which also includes threatening Iran.  How can you preach America First while also wanting a war with Iran to help Israel?

They are also both not very conservative when it comes to economics.  Sure, they are better than most Democrats, but that’s not saying much.  Trump may be decent on some things such as tax cuts and cutting some regulations.  But he is bad on tariffs (taxes on imports) and overall spending.  It seems that Vance would be similar in his views.

In this sense, maybe Vance is a good pick for Trump.  Vance isn’t the worst life insurance policy for Trump to have.  I doubt the establishment fears Vance as much as they fear Trump only because he is less combative.  But it is certainly better than having some typical establishment Republican.

Never Trumper?

Vance, at one time, declared himself to be a “never Trumper”.  He has obviously changed his position since that time, at least in what he says.

I always get a bit skeptical over anyone who was a “never Trumper” and then switches sides.  It is usually just for political reasons.  Remember all of the people like Nikki Haley and Mitt Romney who hated Trump in 2015 and early 2016 but then tried to cozy up to him.  The same could be said for Lindsey Graham and John Bolton.  They have pretended to be on Trump’s side for political power reasons when it was convenient.

I don’t think this quite fits Vance in the same way, but I am still skeptical.  I can understand libertarians who didn’t like Trump and then tentatively supported him for strategic reasons.  But most of these people, to the degree they exist, still have their criticisms of Trump.  They just see him as a better option.  This doesn’t describe Vance.

I will wait to see what Vance does on the campaign trail.  Let’s see if he gets more hawkish in terms of foreign policy.  There are going to be a lot of war hawks trying to cozy up to him.  Let’s see if he can stand firm against them.  Unfortunately, I’m not that optimistic.

Vance is not Dick Cheney or Mike Pence.  That’s the good news.  It is a low bar.  But at least there is a little bit of hope that Trump may pick some marginally better people to surround himself with as compared to the last time around.