The debate between J.D. Vance and Tim Walz certainly had a different flavor from Trump vs. Harris.  The “moderators” were still fully in the tank for the Democratic candidate in spite of claims that they weren’t going to “fact check”.

There were a few somewhat tough questions thrown at Walz, which he should have been prepared for, but wasn’t.  He definitely looked bad answering (or not answering) the question about him not being in China during the events with Tiananmen Square.

When Vance was first announced as Trump’s running mate, the talking points went out to the corporate media to use the word “weird” to describe Vance.  In some ways, Vance is a little bit weird, or at least a little bit different.  But I find the word is much more appropriate for Walz.  His mannerisms are weird.  His hands look like they are going to fall off when he waves to a crowd.  Even his stories and the way he told them came off as a little weird during the debate.  He has more in common with Kamala Harris than I thought.

In full disclosure, I didn’t see the entire debate, and I watched it somewhat out of order.  Still, I will say that Walz came across as more likable than I thought he would be able to pull off.  While his mannerisms and expressions are a bit strange, he did come across as down to earth and someone who wants to get along with others.  It is probably all a show, but not all politicians are able to fake it.

With Vance, he set out to not come across as belligerent or bombastic.  He was calm even when he went on the attack.  He even remained calm when challenging the media in front of him.  He was obviously trying to portray something different from Trump.  Perhaps the strategy was to appeal to some women and maybe some more moderate-type voters who are on the fence but don’t like Trump’s brashness.

The debate was surprisingly cordial, and it didn’t go unnoticed.  Some people are saying that is how it should be done.  Some are suggesting the tickets should be flipped because these two acted like the grown-ups.

Many Republicans Don’t Want Cordial

While there was a strategy for Vance to appeal to so-called moderates and swing voters, this isn’t what the hardcore Trump people want to see.  Don’t get me wrong here.  The Trump supporters approve of Vance’s performance.  But if Trump had acted this way in 2015 when he started his run, he wouldn’t have gotten the support he did.

The reason is that Republicans are tired of getting walked all over.  They are tired of Bush, McCain, Romney, McConnell, and all of these establishment politicians who would always tell them what they wanted to hear. But they would be polite about it and say things in a moderated way.  Once in office, they would throw a few bones to the base and then roll them on everything else.

Trump was a fighter.  He was the bull dog that they wanted.  They wanted someone who wasn’t afraid to be bombastic and say things that weren’t normally said by politicians.  This is why they initially liked him and supported him.  They trust that Trump will fight on their behalf.

This is an important point to realize for now and in the future.  The Republican base doesn’t like Trump in spite of his brashness.  They like him because of it.  They want an advocate who will fight on their behalf.

While the debate by Vance was fine in the eyes of Trump supporters, they don’t want Trump to start acting like this because it will be seen as a sign of weakness and compromise with the establishment.

Issues and Positions

There was nothing terribly surprising by what either candidate said.  We all knew there were not going to be any major deviations from the top of the respective tickets.

It is interesting that there was not a discussion about the hurricane that had just gone through and devastated millions of people with flooding.  Even if the moderators don’t ask, you can still bring it up.  It seems like more of a missed opportunity for Vance by not contrasting the tens of billions of dollars being sent to Ukraine while people in America have lost their homes and are in major need of help.  I don’t think Trump would have missed this opportunity, although he probably would have expressed it clumsily.

Vance did do a good job of showing empathy for middle-class America and the struggles they face.  He seemed to return to this theme.  Unfortunately, he always brought this back to illegal immigration or tariffs.

The whole obsession with tariffs by Trump and Vance is stupid.  It is just another tax.  Higher tariffs increase the prices we pay for consumer goods.  Why don’t they address the real problem of regulation, government spending, and the Federal Reserve?  They will sometimes mention spending and regulation in generalities, but they have no plan to significantly improve anything.

It goes without saying that Harris and Walz will continue to promote policies that harm the economy.

On foreign policy, both tickets are bad.  Trump and Vance are slightly better because they are sometimes critical of sending more money to Ukraine.  They at least speak of negotiating a peace deal.  It is hard to say what will actually happen if Trump is elected.

I am not impressed with any of the candidates.  The best you can say for Trump and Vance is that they might do less damage than Harris and Walz.

Will the Debate Make a Difference?

Overall, I would say that Vance won the debate.  I don’t think expectations were that high for either one, and I think Vance probably exceeded expectations.  Some voters may not have been familiar with him at all other than what they had heard from the media.

The VP debate doesn’t usually mean much.  It is interesting that this is likely the last debate.  The presidential candidates usually debate three times before the general election.  In this case, it is one.  Trump did it twice because he got played debating Biden early on.  Biden’s horrific performance early on allowed the Democrats to dump him from the ticket before the convention.

As with everything, it is a question of things on the margin.  For 99% of people, this VP debate meant nothing.  It wasn’t going to change their mind.  I’d be surprised if there are 1,000 people in America who actually flip their vote because of this debate.

At this stage, almost nobody is going to flip their vote.  Someone voting for Harris isn’t going to change to voting for Trump.  Someone voting for Trump isn’t going to change to voting for Harris.

Where it matters is people who might not vote or might vote for a third-party candidate.  It is possible that Vance could have moved the needle a tiny bit.  But even a fraction of 1% of voters makes a big difference in this election.  As with the last election, it is going to come down to a handful of swing states.

There are election shenanigans in every major election.  If Trump wants to win, he needs a big enough margin that any cheating in the big cities won’t matter.

Trump has been playing his cards right lately by visiting Georgia after the hurricane while the Biden administration just seems to blow it off as if it is no big deal.  It is a very big deal to those living in Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, North Carolina, and South Carolina.

If Trump can survive any more attempts on his life, he is the favorite to win in November as of right now.  We don’t know what tricks are coming over the next four weeks.