There is really only one way that Trump can end the war in Ukraine.
First, we have to understand the causes. Trump likes to call this Biden’s war. While the actual Russian invasion of Ukraine started under Biden, the whole conflict started long before this. It goes back to at least Obama, if not before then.
Of course, Biden was vice president under Obama and had his hands in Ukraine then, so Biden really does share a large responsibility. Plus, Biden could have prevented this in 2021/ 2022 when Putin sent a letter to the Biden administration looking for security assurances. The Biden people just blew him off.
This really goes back to the end of the Cold War when Russia was given assurances that NATO would not expand to the east towards Russia’s border. This was broken before Obama was ever on the scene.
But the whole Ukraine fiasco really got underway in 2014 when the Obama administration helped orchestrate a coup against the democratically-elected president in Ukraine. The president that was overthrown was trying to seek peaceful relations with Russia.
How would Americans feel if the Russian government overthrew the prime minister in Canada and installed their own handpicked leader, with intentions of forming an alliance and placing missiles on the border of New York?
On top of it all, the Ukrainian government then persecuted the ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine and allowed many thousands of people to be killed from 2014 and on.
It should also be noted that after the 2014 coup, the people in Crimea overwhelmingly voted to leave Ukraine and join Russia. The establishment refers to it as Russia annexing Crimea, but it could just as easily be said that Crimea seceded from Ukraine.
Russia is “Winning”
There are rarely actual winners in war other than the military-industrial complex and the “leaders” of the countries involved who often enjoy support and increased power.
But if you had to say that one side is winning in this war, it is Russia. This is why it is ridiculous for Zelenskyy or anyone else to make these demands of Russia giving back Crimea and just withdrawing and going home. Why would Putin do this? Why would Russians support this, especially when they are winning the war?
For Zelenskyy to say this, it basically means he doesn’t want peace negotiations. He doesn’t want a ceasefire unless it is temporary so that his side can have some time to recover and rearm.
This is why it is basically useless to have Zelenskyy involved in any kind of negotiations or attempt at a ceasefire. It is also useless (or worse) to have the main European leaders involved. They don’t want to see this thing end in a way that is actually possible.
Trump should just deal with Putin. He can meet with Zelenskyy just to let him know what they decided.
When Trump met Putin in Alaska, we should all hope that Putin gave a clear explanation of what was going on. It needed to be in Fox News talking points where it doesn’t get too complicated, but not with the Fox News bias towards war.
Let’s hope that Putin explained to Trump that his buddies Obama and Biden started this whole thing with a coup in 2014. Trump has probably never heard that from Fox News or anywhere else. (Robert Kennedy Jr. is aware of this fact.)
Putin has the upper hand to the degree that anyone does here. He is not going to give back Crimea. He wants assurances that the U.S. will not admit Ukraine in NATO. Those two things are non-negotiable.
What may be somewhat negotiable is who controls the territory in eastern Ukraine. Putin does not want a return of the slaughtering of ethnically Russian people. Perhaps he would be willing to negotiate these areas as being neutral or independent states.
The Only Thing Trump Has
There is only one possible way that Trump can get this thing negotiated and bring an end the fighting. It all comes down to one thing: Funding.
Trump has to be willing to take on the deep state and those around him. He has to be willing to stop funding Ukraine with money and weapons. He has to credibly tell Zelenskyy and everyone else to pound sand. He has to make it clear that the funding is about to stop.
This is what will bring an end to the conflict. Maybe the Europeans will attempt to fund it themselves. Trump has to make it clear that there will be no funding from NATO or else the U.S. stops sending any money to NATO. The Europeans will not be able to prop up Ukraine for very long, and Zelenskyy probably knows this.
Trump can talk to Putin and Zelenskyy all day long, but he ultimately has to be willing to cut the funding to Ukraine. This is why Trump is in charge of negotiating with Putin and not Zelenskyy. It really is a proxy war that the U.S. is fighting with Russia because the U.S. is funding it.
Trump can negotiate everything with Putin. The agreement can be that Russia keeps Crimea. The U.S. agrees to not admit Ukraine into NATO and not use Ukraine as a place to put missiles. The eastern parts of Ukraine can be deemed independent states. Maybe there will be some kind of buffer zone. In return, Putin will withdraw all troops out of Ukraine.
If they can negotiate a deal like this, Zelenskyy won’t like it. The war hawks in the U.S. won’t like it. The only way Trump can enforce this agreement is by pledging to withdraw all funding and weapons going to Ukraine.
At that point, if Zelenskyy still wants to fight on, then it is his fight. It will be up to the Ukrainian people to get him out of power. Russia may just take all of Ukraine at that point.
The key is the funding. It’s not clear if Trump understands this. Any threats or talks are meaningless unless he is willing to stop the funding. Trump and Putin can end this conflict very quickly if Trump is willing to defy the western establishment and stop the funding.