The government has been “shut down” for over a week and a half, and I haven’t commented on it in writing up until now. That’s because I don’t think it will be that significant in the long run.
The first thing to point out, that people generally know, is that the government isn’t truly shut down. You still have to pay your taxes. The military is still funding wars, fighting wars, and operating military bases all over the world. The Social Security checks (direct deposits) keep coming in. Medicare and Medicaid keep operating for patients. We are still subject to all of the government regulations out there.
Most unfortunately, the Congress and president are still active, including an announcement from our economic czar that he wants to impose 100% tariffs on China because he doesn’t like how they’re acting.
Impacts
This isn’t to say that the government shutdown doesn’t have its impacts on people. There are many government employees who aren’t reporting for work and who won’t be receiving a paycheck.
Even though I don’t think most jobs done by government employees should exist, it doesn’t mean we can’t have sympathy for some of these people. There are also disruptions for people who just need to deal with the bureaucratic machine.
This shutdown might be hard for government employees who live paycheck to paycheck. They will still need to pay their rent or mortgage and other bills even when they miss a paycheck. This is one reason why it is good to not live paycheck to paycheck.
On the other hand, the government employees who are currently not working know that they will receive backpay when the government officially reopens. Even though the paycheck will be delayed, they will be getting what is essentially a paid vacation.
Here’s a note to people on Facebook and other social media. It isn’t necessarily a good look to advertise your glee over a government shutdown because you get a paid vacation from your job. Then again, I suppose it does help the cause of liberty by making people realize that there are too many government jobs out there that we don’t need.
Politics
It is important to realize that the government is shut down because of politics. Both sides (Democrats and Republicans) see it as potentially advantageous, politically speaking.
If public opinion starts shifting in favor of one side, expect the other side to find a resolution.
The Republicans are generally blaming the Democrats because the Democrats want to make subsidies permanent for the Affordable Care Act (i.e., Obamacare).
The problem for the Republicans is that they hold the presidency and a majority in both houses of Congress. Even though they essentially need 60 votes in the Senate for a continuing resolution, most people don’t follow it that closely.
My guess is that the Republicans will capitulate because they will get more of the blame. If you are a very casual observer of politics, you can see that the Republicans hold the presidency and a majority in Congress, so they would be more to blame for the government shutdown. Of course, if you like the shutdown, then maybe you would praise the Republicans for it.
Most people don’t care that much. The ones who care the most are the ones who are the most directly impacted. At some point, the people most impacted will have the loudest voices and the most influence.
Trump has threatened to start permanently laying off employees if the shutdown continues. I don’t think these will be mass layoffs. He will be going after very specific agencies that he sees as working against him.
Trump is probably not wrong in this respect. There are government employees who are actively working against him. They are also actively working against the American people. But let’s face it. This will be tinkering around the edges.
We know how these things typically work out. Trump will try to fire a few thousand people out of millions, and these people will take it to court. There is a good chance that the courts will rule that the government shutdown was not a legitimate reason for firing these people.
Conclusion
It is hard to say how long the government shutdown will last, be we can say with a lot more certainty that there won’t be any major permanent changes that come from this. Most government employees will eventually return to work and get their pay.
Trump has done a lot of bad things that go against the cause of liberty. He has done a few good things too. The problem is that most of the good things will just simply be undone by the next Democratic president, or maybe any president.Meanwhile, even with the so-called shutdown, government spending will continue to grow, and the debt will continue to grow.