The latest consumer price inflation (CPI) figures came out a week after Trump sealed up the presidential election.  The numbers are not promising.

The CPI rose 0.2% in October 2024, bringing the annual price inflation rate to 2.6%.  This is a slight uptick from September, which breaks the trend of a falling rate of price inflation.

The median CPI was up 0.3% for the month.  The year-over-year median CPI now stands at 4.1%.

This comes right after Trump’s election, but it also comes after the latest FOMC meeting where the Fed announced another cut to its federal funds rate.

The Fed is cutting rates while price inflation is still above its 2% target.  Meanwhile, the yield curve is close to flat after nearly two years of being inverted.  This screams recession while the Fed still has a slight price inflation problem.

The Trump Problem

Many of the really hardcore Trump fans are under the illusion that he is going to give us this great economy.  We should not live in this false reality.

Even if Trump were sound on economics, which he is not, he wouldn’t be able to work this miracle.  The recession is already baked into the cake.  It is going to happen no matter who is president.

Perhaps it is an interesting irony that Trump oversaw the massive monetary inflation and deficit spending in 2020, which led to the high price inflation a couple of years later under Biden.  There was enough of a lag that Biden got the blame.  If the higher price inflation had happened the moment Biden took office, most reasonable people would not have been able to blame Biden.

The Biden presidency has been a complete train wreck in many ways, but Biden wasn’t really that responsible for the price inflation except that he perpetuated the system of deficit spending.  There likely would have been significant price inflation no matter who became president in 2021.

And now it’s Trump’s turn to inherit the train wreck from Joe Biden.  If the recession starts in the next few months, then most reasonable people will not be able to blame Trump, or at least not at first.  If the recession begins and becomes evident on the day Trump takes office, there will be some on the left who will blame Trump, but this won’t stick with most people.

If Trump takes office and the recession doesn’t hit for another 6 months, then you get into the territory of Trump taking the blame.  If you are a Trump fan, you should be cheering for the start of the recession in the next two months.

The Inflation Pain

Trump can ease some pain by drastically cutting regulations that are just mostly burdensome and add to the cost of consumer goods and services.

Unfortunately, Trump is talking about slapping on massive tariffs.  This will only serve to make products more expensive.  The establishment media, in its quest to criticize Trump on anything, actually gets this point correct at times.  It is one of the very few things.  But we wouldn’t be hearing these criticisms of Harris if she had been elected.

People are still feeling the pain of higher prices.  Insurance has gone up a lot, particularly vehicle insurance in recent years.  This alone can destroy a household budget.

Let’s remember that when they say inflation is coming down, it doesn’t mean that prices are coming down. Overall prices are still going higher, just at a slower pace.  They are going up higher on top of the already high prices where people were struggling.

We may finally get a little relief with a deep recession, but that obviously has its own problems with unemployment and deflating asset prices.  It could mean another financial crisis.  It will really hurt people and companies with high debt loads.

The best way Trump can deal with this is to level with the American people.  He can be honest and tell them that is due to years of misallocations, reckless government spending, and Federal Reserve money manipulation.

Unfortunately, this is not likely to happen.  Trump doesn’t even understand this himself.  And even if he did, he would have to have the courage and honesty to tell the truth to his constituents.

Trump will not be able to pull off any miracles.  The best hope is that he scales down the war machine, cuts some regulations, and makes some actual budget cuts with the help of people like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy.

With the tough economic times likely to continue in the near future, we have to defend liberty whenever possible.  We have to criticize Trump policies that are bad and praise Trump policies that are good.

There have been many fascinating aspects of the political landscape in 2024.  One thing that has really become evident is that libertarians are having great influence on public opinion.

If we are going to achieve greater liberty in our society, then we must have a greater percentage of people who are favorable towards libertarian ideas.  This means educating others on the morality and the benefits of libertarianism.  This doesn’t necessarily mean you have to use the term libertarian.

The Libertarian Party

The goal of the Libertarian Party should be to sell the message of liberty and to help move our society in a more libertarian direction.  This may or may not mean getting Libertarians (large L or small L) elected to office.

Dave Smith is a comedian and podcaster.  He was considering a run for president on the Libertarian Party ticket.  Because of family considerations, he decided not to run.  Even though this was known for many months before the Libertarian National Convention in May 2024, it still threw the whole convention into disarray.

Dave Smith would have likely gotten the LP nomination in 2024 if he had run.  Instead, the race for the nomination was thrown wide open.  The Mises Caucus alternative was Michael Rectenwald, who holds mostly the same positions as Dave Smith, but who didn’t generate the same excitement.

When the convention was done, the Mises Caucus (i.e., the radical and principled libertarians) did not get the nominee they hoped for.  It ended up being Chase Oliver just barely beating out “None of the Above” on the final ballot.

Chase Oliver is the quintessential left-libertarian if such a thing can exist.

In retrospect, this may have been the perfect thing to happen.  Chase Oliver was the perfect candidate for 2024.  He certainly didn’t take votes away from Donald Trump.

Chase Oliver ran a terrible campaign.  Perhaps more accurately, he barely ran a campaign.  He was visible almost nowhere.  He will end up getting a total of just over 600,000 votes nationwide, which is a bad showing for the Libertarian candidate when compared to past years.

Chase Oliver did not appear on any big outlets.  Perhaps he was unable to get on anything like Fox News or CNN.  But he also declined to go on any of the big podcasts.  He didn’t go on Dave Smith’s show, probably because Dave didn’t endorse him.  Still, wouldn’t he at least want to give his pitch to the audience?

Chase Oliver didn’t go on any big shows as far as I know.  I am thinking about Tom Woods, Joe Rogan, Tim Pool, and Patrick Bet-David, just to name a few.  Maybe he wasn’t invited on all of them, but I do believe he was invited on at least some of them.  And did his campaign team (if one existed) even reach out to them?

Again, it would have meant going on and being interviewed by people who don’t necessarily agree with him and may challenge him, but wouldn’t Chase Oliver want to have the chance for some exposure?  I don’t think any of these hosts would have been really hostile towards him.

The Libertarian Party Influence

Despite Chase Oliver getting the nomination, Angela McCardle retained the position of chair of the national party.  It appears that she is the one who was able to get Donald Trump and other big names to appear at the convention.

Donald Trump promised to free Ross Ulbricht from prison when he spoke in front of the LP convention.  I believe Trump will make good on that promise.  Ulbricht’s mother has worked tirelessly to get her son free, who was sentenced to life in jail for setting up and running a website.

I believe Trump will make good on his promise.  If for some reason he doesn’t, there are going to be tens of thousands of angry libertarians calling the White House and reminding Trump of what was said.

While Ross Ulbricht is one person in a very large country, it is still symbolic of the authoritarianism and injustice that some people have endured.  Freeing Ross will mean more than just freeing Ross, which in itself is important.

The Libertarian Influence

The Libertarian Party is just one potential vehicle for spreading libertarianism.  We have many people promoting liberty who are not directly involved in the party.  There are also many people spreading the ideas of liberty even if they are not purely libertarian.

Looking back now, perhaps it is a really good thing that Dave Smith didn’t run for president in 2024.  Most presidential elections are candidates from the two major parties who really are very much the same.  In 2024, I think there was enough of a difference between the candidates where it actually mattered.

If Dave had run, he would have received a lot of attention.  He has been on with Joe Rogan many times.  Dave has interviewed or been interviewed by Tim Pool, Patrick Bet-David, Candace Owens, Tucker Carlson, and several other big-name podcasters.  Rogan probably would have endorsed Dave instead of his last-minute endorsement of Trump.

If Dave Smith had run for president, I think the election would have been a lot closer.  I can’t say that Kamala Harris would have won, but I truly believe it would have been really close.

I had a strong feeling that Trump was going to win the election in the week leading up to Election Day.  Kamala Harris was not impressive at all.  But even more so, Trump had all the momentum on his side.  He appeared on Rogan.  JD Vance also went on Rogan.  They were human conversations, and Rogan ended up endorsing Trump.

Trump had a team of independent thinkers out there campaigning on his behalf.  The most notable people were Vivek Ramaswamy, Elon Musk, Robert Kennedy Jr., Nicole Shanahan, Tulsi Gabbard, and Tucker Carlson.

In the final week, Dave Smith said that he was going to vote for Donald Trump.  One of his reasons was that he couldn’t stand to see Liz Cheney up there campaigning with Kamala Harris.

I believe a bigger reason (and he later alluded to this with Rogan after the election) is that Dave has a big influence on most of the people who are influencing Trump.  Dave has interviewed Vivek, RFK, Nicole Shanahan, and Tucker Carlson.

Here we have a radical and principled libertarian in Dave Smith who will possibly influence the next president of the United States.  If we have this, we don’t need a Libertarian Party candidate for president.

The Dave Smith Influence Continues

Most recently, Dave tweeted out a message about not just opposing Mike Pompeo, but the need to keep all of the neoconservatives away from the Trump administration.  Donald Trump Jr. replied to Dave’s tweet (X post) and said he agrees and that he is on it.

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1855593982958379321

Shortly after this, Donald Trump announced that he would not be inviting Mike Pompeo or Nikki Haley into his cabinet in the upcoming administration.  This is especially hilarious because Pompeo was out there campaigning for Trump in the moments before the election and trying to pretend to be a great advocate of his.

Donald Trump Jr. is more libertarian than his father.  He is obviously following Dave Smith.  We have to imagine that Don Jr. probably has as much political influence on Donald Trump as anyone, with the possible exception of Melania.

Even if Dave had run for president and gotten 10 million votes, I believe he is having more influence right now doing this.

Cautious Optimism

Donald Trump is going to do some very bad things as president.  He will probably oversee a recession.  He will likely impose higher tariffs and make our lives more expensive.  He will also be way too hawkish on foreign policy as compared to what libertarians would like to see.

Still, there is great reason for optimism, even if the deep state continues to try to hurt and delegitimize Trump in every way.

Trump has said that he wants to close down the Department of Education and return all education to the states.  There is a slim chance of this happening in the next four years, but at least it is being discussed.

In terms of foreign policy, it will be a mixed bag.  He will likely appoint some bad people and some decent people.  But a mixed policy is better than what we have now, which is a bunch of crazed war hawks always pushing for more U.S. government intervention.

I think the next four years is a possible opportunity for libertarians and libertarian-leaning people to have real influence and to make some lasting change.

In addition, we can continue to spread the message of liberty even if we aren’t immediately successful in changing policy in some areas.  The more that public opinion favors greater liberty, the greater the prospects for the future.

It’s been quite a week.  The big news is:

The Fed has cut its target rate by 25 basis points.

Oh yeah, and Trump has won the presidency.

Which matters more to the economy?

The president tends to get too much blame or too much credit for the economy.  There is a certain irony that the massive spending and monetary inflation that happened in 2020 under Trump led to the higher price inflation during the Biden administration, which was a factor in Harris losing to Trump.

The president can have an impact on the economy with radical changes one way or the other.  The unconstitutional and immoral vaccine mandates in 2021 caused economic damage along with other damages.  In terms of spending though, it seems that federal spending is almost always increasing, so it is hard to just blame the president when Congress controls the purse strings and the people elect them.

To be sure, the president can have a positive economic impact by trying to drastically cut spending and repealing regulations.  There is little reason for optimism when hearing about a Department of Government Efficiency headed by Elon Musk.  We actually don’t want efficiency from government.  We just want less of it.

Still, the fact that it is even being discussed is a positive sign.  Maybe nothing much will happen in the next four years, but at least it is a topic of conversation now.  That is a start.  For lasting positive change, we need public opinion on our side.

Recession Fears

Even though I was cheering for Trump against the puppet and her evil puppet masters, I do see a major downside to a Trump presidency.

The yield curve was inverted for 2023 and most of 2024.  It is now close to flat.  It means that a recession is on the horizon.  I thought a year ago that it would have started by now.  One can only hope that it will start in the next two months under Biden, but that is unlikely at this point.

So, when the recession hits, the establishment media will blame Trump.  Of course, they already call him a Nazi, so I guess being a bad economic manager doesn’t sound so bad in comparison.

Unfortunately, Trump is not that great on economics.  He thinks higher tariffs will bring us more prosperity.  They will only bring us higher prices and higher tensions.

If we are going through a recession, that would be a good time to make massive cuts in government spending.  You could call it anti-Keynesianism.  It is a painful time anyway, so that might be a good time to make painful cuts.

If it is handled right, we might actually see some genuine prosperity by 2028.  But that is a big “if”.  Trump hasn’t always been that great at surrounding himself with good people.  We can only hope that libertarian leaning people like Vivek Ramaswamy and Nicole Shanahan will be influential on him.

Powell Says He’ll Stay

Jerome Powell said that he plans to stay on the job even if Trump asks him to resign.  Powell assumed the job of Fed chair in February 2018 after Trump’s nomination.  Biden actually kept Powell on the job, which kind of gives you a hint about the man and the position.

Powell will likely stay on the job until 2026, and then Trump can nominate someone else.  He should nominate Judy Shelton for Fed chair.  He previously tried to get her in as a Fed member, but the Senate would not confirm her nomination.  Now the Republicans will have a majority in the Senate, and Trump obviously has a lot of influence.  Shelton is an advocate for returning to a gold standard.

The economy will probably be a mess no matter what, as we have to deal with all of the previous malinvestment and the massive debt.  And everybody except for Trump’s supporters are going to blame him for everything anyway.  So, he might as well try to make some lasting and positive change.

The Easy Cuts to Spending

The hardest thing to cut in defying the establishment is war spending and foreign aid.  With the American people, it is probably the easiest thing to cut.

Sure, these cuts would impact some people like those who work for weapons manufacturers.  But most of this spending does not go directly to the American people.  Sending hundreds of billions of dollars to Ukraine benefit very few people in the United States except for the ruling elite.  If this spending gets cut, it is an instant win for the American people.  It could help offset some of the economic pain that is to come.

I hope that Elon Musk and Ron Paul get an opportunity to drastically cut spending everywhere, but I know that will be a lot more difficult politically.  I can already hear the stories about starving and homeless teachers because of cuts to (or the elimination of) the Department of Education.

In conclusion, the economy is going to fall hard.  The stock market soared to new all-time highs when Trump was announced the winner.  This just means it will fall that much farther in the years ahead.

With a bad economy, let’s hope that the good people who have endorsed Trump continue to have influence and continue to advocate policies of greater liberty.  On the economic front, we need drastic cuts in government spending.  We don’t need a new Fed chair to make that happen.

It is the day before the election as I write this, and I haven’t fully decided on my vote for president.  If you asked me a couple of months ago, I was leaning towards doing a write-in vote for someone like Ron Paul.  As of today, I am leaning towards voting for Trump.  What changed?

The more I watch Kamala Harris and the Biden administration, the more disgusted I get.  Biden made a recent gaffe, which means he accidentally expressed his opinion out loud.  He said that Trump supporters are garbage.  I already knew he despised tens of millions of people, but it is actually worse when he has the gall to say it out loud as if to flaunt it.

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris is fumbling almost every interview and speech.  This doesn’t particularly bother me except that I know she is fully controlled by the same people who control Biden.  She is a puppet.

I was reminded of her authoritarianism recently when I watched a video of her from 2010 bragging about her plans to throw parents in jail in California for their kids missing too much school.

Harris is also out there campaigning with Liz Cheney of all people, which tells you just what kind of a person she is and what kind of a president she would be.

Reasons Against Trump

If I vote for Trump, I am not endorsing what Trump did in his first term, nor am I endorsing many of his policy positions today.  I am making it clear that I do not support the following:

• Hiking tariffs
• Belligerence towards Iran
• Funding and arming the Israeli state
• Allowing Fauci to have the spotlight during COVID
• Promoting the COVID vaccines
• Hiring people like John Bolton, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Christopher Wray, Bill Barr, and the list goes on and on

There are many other areas that are perhaps less significant where I strongly disagree with Trump.

To be sure, I also have my criticisms of his demeanor at times, but it has nothing to do with what the establishment media says.  I don’t think Trump should pick a fight with someone like Candace Owens just because she offers some constructive criticism.  He also originally did the same thing with Joe Rogan when Rogan spoke highly of Kennedy (before Kennedy endorsed Trump).

I have no issue with Trump with regard to the lies the media hands out.  He didn’t tell anyone to drink bleach.  He didn’t call white supremacists very fine people.  He didn’t call for an insurrection.  He didn’t hold a Nazi rally.  He didn’t collude with the Russians to steal the election.

Changing My Mind

The reason I have changed my mind and am leaning in favor of voting for Trump is because of the prominent people who have been speaking at his rallies and cheering him on.  I have my disagreements with J.D. Vance, but he is about the best I could have hoped for in a running mate for Trump.  He is not great on foreign policy, but he is better than almost anything we’ve had from the two major parties in quite some time.  Vance recently appeared on Rogan and was talking about how we need to do something about the Federal Reserve.

Aside from Vance, there are a handful of people that get me somewhat excited, or at least cautiously optimistic.  I have in mind the following people:

• Robert Kennedy Jr.
• Nicole Shanahan
• Elon Musk
• Tulsi Gabbard
• Vivek Ramaswamy
• Tucker Carlson

I have my disagreements with all of them, but I believe they all want to sincerely help the country, and they all lean libertarian to some degree on the issues where they focus.

Kennedy was great on COVID, and he is a strong advocate for making America healthier.  He understands the damage government has done in this respect.  He also believes that the CIA killed his uncle.

Nicole Shanahan (RFK’s running mate) has been surprisingly great on many liberty issues.  She has had multiple conversations with Ron Paul and has been very open to his ideas while praising him.

Elon Musk recently said he wants to cut $2.5 trillion out of the federal budget.  He wants a government efficiency commission, which normally sounds bad.  But I believe he is serious about this, as he actually directed a message to Ron Paul about helping to cut government spending.
Tulsi Gabbard isn’t a total non-interventionist with foreign policy, but she is far better than anyone in the Biden administration.  If she gets a prominent role in directing U.S. foreign policy, we will be much better off.

Vivek Ramaswamy goes on all of the major libertarian podcasts and frequently expresses libertarian ideas.  Again, I am aware that he is not a pure libertarian, but it is incredible that someone like this is having influence on Trump.

Tucker Carlson is also not a libertarian, but he is pretty close where it really counts.  Tucker has done an amazing job at going just far enough to not lose Republican support while challenging many conventional things.  He challenges the whole foreign policy apparatus, and he challenges the national security state.  His economics may not always be great from a libertarian standpoint, but he is great on the things where he focuses his attention.

Not Letting the Perfect Be the Enemy of the Good

Sometimes I hate this saying because people use it as justification to support bad things.  If you voted for Bush in 2004 for president and used this saying, it is just completely wrong because there was barely anything good about the Bush presidency.

In the case of Trump, I think it does apply because Trump is significantly better than Harris and her puppet masters.

Libertarians running for office often say that you shouldn’t choose between the lesser of two evils.  But there are very few libertarians running for office where I agree with everything they say.  So, I am always voting for a lesser evil.  It is just a question of degree.

In this case, I think Trump is significantly less evil.  He doesn’t hate my guts.  If he does, he is a great actor.  Biden and Harris and their controllers hate my guts.  They hate the average American family.  They will barely tolerate you if you obey their dictates.

We aren’t going to get a libertarian president any time soon.  But we have a candidate who has several prominent people around him who at least lean libertarian.

The people mentioned above are almost bullying Trump (in a good way) towards greater liberty.  Kennedy endorsed Trump, and Kennedy is supposed to lead a transition team.

We have several of these people who are questioning the Fed, the intelligence agencies, U.S. foreign policy, and bloated government in general.  How can a libertarian look at this and not consider supporting it in the hopes of moving us in the right direction?

Ron Paul isn’t running for president.  The country wasn’t ready for Ron Paul in 2008 or 2012.  The country still isn’t ready for someone like Ron Paul, but we are getting a lot closer.

Cautious Optimism

Kennedy, Shanahan, Vivek, Elon, Tulsi, and Tucker can guide Trump in the right direction.  They can overwhelm the establishment people who will try to influence Trump.

I understand that a lot can go wrong.  I understand that Trump will do many things that are bad.  I understand that it is hard to change anything significant for the better in Washington D.C.

But it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try.  There is reason for very cautious optimism.  Even if Trump is a bad president again, people are getting educated.  They are learning that the ruling elite do not like them and do not have their best interests at heart.

We can build on this and continue to move public opinion in a more libertarian direction.

There is going to be some chaos after the election no matter what happens, but there is reason to be hopeful for the future.

November 5, 2024 is the big day.  We may not actually find out the official results on this day unless there is a resounding Trump victory, which isn’t impossible at this point.

To be sure, this shouldn’t be a big day.  There is something wrong with an entire system when our lives so heavily depend on an election.  Some libertarians take the position that it doesn’t matter who is elected president because they are all statists.  To a certain extent that is true, but it is hard to say that there is no difference.  If there were no difference, then the ruling elite wouldn’t be working so hard to ensure a particular result.

Just as in past elections, the whole thing could come down to a handful of swing states.  Within those swing states, there are probably less than 100,000 swing voters who will ultimately determine the results if the results are at least somewhat valid.

Think about Florida in 2000.  It is not clear today how much better or worse our country would have been with Gore instead of Bush.  But it came down to just a few hundred votes in one state.

Why should our lives be determined by a few thousand votes, or even a few hundred thousand votes, out of a country with around 340 million people?  Again, there is something wrong with our system.  The thing that is wrong is that the presidency and the entire federal government have way too much power.  If there weren’t so much power, then it wouldn’t mean so much to so many people.

Trump Soars While Kamala Harris Dives

I am expecting a Trump victory.  I will not be shocked if he isn’t the declared winner, and I won’t be shocked if he is prevented from taking office.  Still, I think he is going to win the election.  He may not win the so-called popular vote, but he will win the electoral votes, which is what matters.

Kamala Harris has been a complete disaster for her party and the ruling elite.  She has been fumbling her interviews and speeches.  She is just not likable at all.  The only thing she has going for her is that the ruling elite is on her side, and the ruling elite have propagandized nearly half of the population to despise Donald Trump and have an irrational hatred of the man.

Kamala Harris is also dealing with the Joe Biden problem.  He not only has some kind of dementia, but then he shows his true colors and calls Trump supporters “garbage”.  This is not something that Bill Clinton or Obama would have done.

The Democrats and the ruling elite have resorted to calling Trump the next Hitler and saying that he had a Nazi rally at Madison Square Garden.  This smells of pure desperation.

Meanwhile, Trump is soaring, but not if you watch the establishment media.  Trump appeared on Joe Rogan’s podcast where he mostly acted like a normal human being.  Trump had his weak moments in the 3-hour long conversation, but he mostly came across as a decent person.

Trump the Person

I have heard some people say that they don’t like Trump the person but that his policies have been good for the country.  I take almost the opposite approach.

I actually think Trump is a decent person.  It doesn’t mean I have to defend everything he’s said and done in his life.  I am not defending him if he cheated on his wife (current or past).  I am not defending some of his name calling, although some of it probably was appropriate.

Listening to Trump, he just sounds like a real person.  Most of the people from his past who knew him well speak highly of him.  Trump brags a lot, but he actually doesn’t brag much about many good deeds he has done in the past.

I believe Trump actually does want the country to do well, even if it is just so he can brag about it.  Most of all, I don’t think Trump hates me.  Joe Biden hates me.  He spent his presidency not just attacking Trump, but attacking Trump supporters.  In some ways, he attacked anyone who didn’t go along with his dictates.  Does anyone remember the vaccine mandates and Biden trying to demonize anyone who didn’t want it?

Kamala Harris is covering it up a tiny bit better than Biden, but she hates my guts too.  She hates normal families.  She hates middle America.  She once bragged about her idea of putting parents in jail if their kids missed too much school in California.  She promoted a bail fund to release violent criminals from the 2020 riots.  She hates our guts.

The people supporting Harris are supporting someone who hates them too.  She will accept them as long as they fall in line, but the minute they fall out of line, Harris will send in the goons to set them straight.

I don’t agree with many Trump policies.  I thought he was bad on COVID.  I don’t agree with imposing tariffs.  I don’t agree with his support of the Israeli state.  I don’t agree with his belligerence towards Iran.  I don’t agree with many of his previous picks for his administration.

Yet, in spite of all that, he is still better than Harris and her puppet masters.  I think he is at least sincere in wanting the country to do well.  He doesn’t want to tear down western civilization.

Rough Times Ahead

No matter who officially wins the presidential election, there is going to be chaos.  The economy is set to implode no matter who takes office.

If Harris wins, we will have more mandates, more authoritarianism, and more cultural decline.  It’s possible we get this with Trump too, but it is a certainty with Harris.

If Trump wins, the powers-that-be are purposely going to create more chaos.  Don’t underestimate their ability to double-down yet again.  We will get more Russia collusion stories.  We will get more attempts to throw him in jail.  Perhaps there will be more assassination attempts.  We will certainly get more Hitler stories.  It is going to be total chaos.

Although we are in for some crazy times, there is part of me that is optimistic.  We have more Americans than ever questioning the FBI, the CIA, the NSA, the FDA, the CDC, and many other agencies.  We have this unique coalition of people like Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson, Vivek Ramaswamy, RFK Jr., and Nicole Shanahan.  None of them are libertarians, but they all have some ideas that are libertarian.  And again, I get the impression that they don’t despise me and actually want to do good things.

This is a prime opportunity for libertarians to reach out to Trump supporters and find common ground.  It is also an opportunity to educate them on the things that Trump gets wrong and to move them in our direction. Tucker Carlson has done a really good job of this on issues of foreign policy and the national security state.

No matter who wins on November 5^th (or after), there is going to be chaos.  But there is also a path forward that involves greater liberty and less power for the government.

In the month of October 2024, the yield curve has significantly flattened.  It has been mostly inverted for all of 2023 and 2024, which is a very long time.  This means that short-term yields have been higher than long-term yields.

It has almost completely flattened now.  Across the curve, the lowest yield is 4.14% (the 3-year and 5-year) as I write this.  The highest yield is 4.87% (1-month yield).

So, it is still very slightly inverted in some spots, but close to flat.  The long yields have gone up.  From October 1 to October 30, the 30-year yield has risen from 4.08% to 4.49%.

The short yields have only fallen slightly.  But the Fed is expected to lower its target rate once or twice more before the end of the calendar year.  This should push short-term yields down more.

The Significance

Why is this so important?  It is because an inverted yield curve predicts a recession.  But the recession doesn’t hit or become evident until the yield curve flips back to “normal”.  In other words, the short-term yields should fall below the long-term yields before the worst of the recession hits.

This means that the new president in January 2025 may have a big economic disaster thrown on their lap.

The yield curve was severely inverted before, and it lasted an enormously long time.  If the length and severity of the inversion is any indication of the severity of the recession, then we are in for a wild ride ahead.

The president tends to get too much credit for a good economy and too much blame for a bad economy.  The Federal Reserve and Congress play a major role in the economy.  It is unfortunate that the federal government has this kind of impact at all, but that is the reality.

Still, there are ways that the president could help improve the economy, as long as the deep state allows it to some degree.  Obviously, it would be impossible for a president to improve the situation if he or she is assassinated or kicked out of office.

Regulations and Executive Orders

While the president shouldn’t be anything like a dictator, the fact is that we live in a regime where there are a lot of dictates coming from the executive branch.  Most presidents issue hundreds of executive orders while in office, at least since the beginning of the 20^th century.

Not all executive orders are similar in nature.  Some are really inconsequential.  Some may even be valid if it is a proper constitutional authority.  You can also have some really awful ones.

Think about the Biden administration’s vaccine mandates.  It immediately caused widespread chaos.  Companies had to administer programs to check vaccine status and to review exemption requests, or they had to make the decision to not go forward with any of it and possibly face the wrath of the federal government.  Meanwhile, there were millions of employees who had to fill out exemption requests or make the decision on whether to quit, be fired, or take a jab in the arm.  Also, think about all of the lawyer and court costs associated with this.

Most executive orders are somewhere in between the inconsequential and the highly disruptive.  But many of them add unnecessary red tape and make the American people less free and the economy less free.  They add up to a major burden over time.

Since executive orders by nature are issued without congressional approval, they can be repealed without congressional approval.  A president could repeal all consequential executive orders that interfere with the free market.

Even more important, the president has much control over all of the alphabet agencies of the administrative state.  While it might take Congress to defund the agencies, the president can appoint people and make directives to the point where the administrative agencies are not causing major damage.  The EPA and the FDA (as just two examples) aren’t highly destructive because of their budgets.  They are highly destructive because of the interference in the market economy from all of the regulations and dictates.

Taxes and Spending

While Congress ultimately controls the purse, the president can have a big impact.  The president can propose budgets.  The president can veto funding bills, which would then force a supermajority congressional override.

The president can also put out tax proposals.  Any simplifications or reductions can ease the burden on people.

Still, a massive reduction in spending is the key here.  The federal government is spending over $6 trillion per year, which is money and resources coming out of the market economy.  Some of it is simply redistributed, but it all has an impact.  Even if the money isn’t spent on imposing more burdens on us, the actual spending is a misallocation of resources no matter what.

Imagine if the federal budget were cut in half and we had over $3 trillion at our disposal for the market economy.  Even if you didn’t cut any taxes, we wouldn’t have the government spending those resources.  With drastic cuts in spending, tax cuts and tax eliminations would be sure to follow.

The Federal Reserve

While the president can’t directly control the Fed, there is no question that the president can have influence here.  We hear about “Fed independence”, but the Fed is a creation of the government.

The president gets to appoint the seven members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve.  This includes the appointment of the Fed chair.  While they have to be confirmed by the Senate, there is no stopping the president from continuing to appoint members who will reduce the power of the Fed.

If the president is able to drastically reduce spending as discussed above, and the deficit mostly goes away, this also reduces the need for the Fed to create new money out of thin air and to manipulate interest rates downward.  Without a deficit, there is no need for the Fed to purchase any new government debt.

The Bully Pulpit

We should not underestimate the influence that a president can command.  If someone is elected president, there must be some kind of consent given by at least a substantial portion of the population.  If a president were elected on the basis of drastically reducing government spending and regulations, then the president would have something of a mandate.

Reagan used his bully pulpit in the 1980s to push through marginal income tax cuts.  The Democrats in Congress were overwhelmed with calls from constituents telling them to go along with the president’s tax cut plans.  They were essentially forced to support the tax cuts or else face the wrath of their constituents, particularly at the next election.

Even if Congress won’t go along, the president can make a speech to the American people laying out a plan to drastically reduce government spending and regulations.  If the president makes a good case, then it will mold public opinion.

Ultimately, to get less government interference and a better economy, we need public opinion on our side.  A president is someone who can explain to the American people that their lives would be much better off if we had a massive reduction in government.

Conclusion

This is fantasy land, at least right now.  Presidential candidates from the major parties are not laying out any plans for real government reductions.  Most politicians, with very few exceptions, are not willing to give drastic and specific spending cut proposals.

Still, it is important to know that while the president doesn’t have as major of an impact as what people think, the president could take many steps to help free up the market economy from the government.

Donald Trump holds some really terrible positions.  He is completely wrong on tariffs, which only serve to make things more expensive for American consumers.

Trump is terrible on the issue of Israel.  He speaks highly of Israel, while repeating the same platitudes we hear from others justifying mass murder.  They’ll say, “Israel has a right to defend itself.”  Or they’ll say, “Israel has to get the terrorists.”  But these slogans don’t justify intentionally killing innocent people.  They don’t justify blowing up buildings.  Yet, American taxpayer money is used to fund and arm the Israeli state.

Trump is a little better on other foreign policy issues, such as Ukraine.  He at least, rhetorically, says he wants a peace negotiation.  This is one of the main reasons the establishment hates him and fears him.  Trump is not pro war enough for them.

As bad as Trump is, I don’t get the feeling that he hates me.  He doesn’t hate middle-class America.  He doesn’t hate functional families.  The puppet masters who control Biden and Harris hate our guts.  They don’t even hide it very well any more.

Cheering on Trump

Even though I can’t stand Trump in many ways, they are for very different reasons than what I’m told from the establishment and its media.  I don’t believe any of the lies about Trump and Russia collusion.  Trump never said to drink bleach.  He never called white supremacists very find people.  He never incited a violent insurrection.  The only people who were murdered on January 6, 2021 at the Capitol were Trump supporters who were murdered by Capitol police.

So, even though I can’t stand many of Trump’s policies, it is hard not to cheer for him.  Just watching the slimeballs on television squirm will be a treat.  They will become even more unhinged and make up bigger lies.

The people out there with Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) are going to be seriously mentally ill.  Some of them will not be able to function in their day-to-day activities.

If Trump wins the election, the establishment will not just go after Trump.  They will go after his supporters.  They will go after anyone who didn’t support Harris.  They will tell us something like, “Well, it looks like a lot of America is made up of racists and people who hate women and who want to live under a Hitler-like dictatorship.”

I will hear it on MSNBC.  I will hear it on CNN.  I will see it on Facebook.  The people on NBC and ABC and CBS will say the same thing in a slightly more polite way.

If Trump wins or is winning on election night, I will have to tune into CNN and MSNBC just to hear the hysteria and vitriol.

The Punishment

While watching the hysteria of the Trump haters will be fun, it won’t be fun for long.  You have to wonder how the ruling elite will try to punish us.

Will it be riots in the street like 2020?  Will it be COVID 2.0?  Will it be a world war?  Will it be something completely new that we can’t anticipate?  Or will it be a series of smaller things?

There is also the economy, which isn’t looking good no matter what.  That could be a massive liability for Trump if he wins and takes office.  The one thing people hate more than high inflation is a depression.  It will be easy for the powers-that-be to tank this economy because it is already set up for a massive fall anyway.

If Trump loses, his supporters won’t go away quietly into the night.  At the same time, there aren’t going to be riots in the streets.  They won’t go into hiding, but the Trump supporters will be taken out of the spotlight.  The establishment media will only talk about Trump and his supporters to the degree that they challenge the election results and they need someone to blame for the problems in the world.

If Trump wins, it will be total chaos, especially if you listen at all to the establishment media.  The rhetoric might take a whole new level if that is even possible.  They will continue to lie constantly about Trump.  They will try to undermine him at every turn.  They will make up any accusations, no matter how ridiculous.

The ruling elite want to maintain the status quo.  After all, they have the money and the power, so why would they want anything different?  Donald Trump is a possible disruption to the status quo.  They will do whatever it takes to defeat that threat to the status quo.

Breaking Up is Hard to Do

This isn’t just about Trump.  Many people have woken up.  20 years ago, there were a handful of libertarians who questioned the FBI, the Federal Reserve, the CIA, the military-industrial complex, the FDA, etc.

It is amazing how many people today on the political right don’t trust the FBI or the FDA.  Some of them are even starting to come around on the issue of war.

While Trump doesn’t advocate getting rid of the FBI or the FDA, he does, to some degree, symbolize opposition to the regime.

Breaking up is a hard thing to do.  It is especially hard when it is a $6 trillion monstrosity with a lot of special interests.

Dave Smith also used the analogy of a woman breaking up with an abusive boyfriend.  In the short run, it is easier and safer to just stay with the boyfriend.  When she leaves her boyfriend or announces that she wants to break up with him, this is when things get really messy.  His minor beatings from before could all of a sudden become major beatings.  It is a major threat to the woman’s safety.  Still, in the long run, it is probably better if she takes the risk and breaks up with him now.

Throwing off the ruling elites is not going to be easy or pleasant.  They are not going to go quietly into the night.  We are going to have to face chaos and violence beyond what we have seen in order for things to improve.  We are not to blame, just like the woman.  It is the abusive boyfriend who is the evil one.  We have to break it off and take the risk, even though it won’t be pleasant in the short run.

Conclusion

I live in Florida.  If Trump loses Florida, he loses the election.  Florida is no longer a swing state.

I will probably not vote for Trump, but I can still cheer him on.  If you favor Trump, you should want me to not vote for him.  I have never voted for a presidential candidate in an election who ended up winning.

No matter who wins, there is going to be chaos going forward.

Kamala Harris isn’t a particularly strong presidential candidate.  There is a reason that she dropped out of the 2020 primaries before the voting even began.  She just wasn’t all that popular or likable.

If Harris wins the presidency, she won’t be the dumbest person to have ever taken office.  Biden isn’t really dumb, although he has been known to have many gaffes.  The problem for Biden is that he is senile and took office at an old age.  Taking office at an old age doesn’t seem to be a problem for Trump because he isn’t senile.

George W. Bush was incredibly dumb (and probably still is).  Some thought he just acted like a goofball to come across as more likable and relatable.  That might be the case, but he is still dumb.  He is evil, but he just isn’t that intelligent of a person.  Hillary Clinton and Dick Cheney are both evil, but it is hard to call them dumb.

I think of H.L. Mencken’s quote: “As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

We already reached that point years ago as far as I’m concerned.

Scripted

It was insane to me that Harris agreed to do an interview with Fox News.  I don’t think she had a lot to gain from it, but there was plenty of downside.

The first question asked by Bret Baier was: How many illegal immigrants have been released in the country over the last 3 and a half years.

Harris responds, “Well, I’m glad you raised the issue of immigration because I agree with you.  It is a topic of discussion that people want to rightly have.”

She never answered the question, which is typical for her.  But do you notice that her answer didn’t even really make much sense in the context of the question?  Harris said “I agree with you.”  Baier never really offered his opinion on the matter in his original question.  You can tell that Harris was prepped for an immigration question, but she couldn’t even adapt the answer to fit the question.

There was talk of Harris doing an interview with Joe Rogan on his podcast.  I am begging for her to do it.  I want to see how many times she can say that she was raised in a middle-class family in a long-form interview.

Gaslighting and Projection

I have figured out that Harris and her puppet masters won’t simply lie about things.  They will purposely tell the opposite of the truth.  They will say things about Trump and others that are true of themselves.

In their one debate, when asked about immigration, Harris slid in a comment about Donald Trump barely having anyone attend his rallies.  This was obviously a planned comment.  Anyone who has seen a Trump rally knows it is the opposite of the truth.  If anything, it is Harris who gets small crowds and is only able to get big crowds by getting celebrity performers to show up with her.

It was still an interesting comment in the debate because everyone knew that Trump couldn’t let that comment sit.  So, he had to state the obvious that he has huge crowds while he used up his time on a question about immigration.

The Democrats and the establishment media like to talk about how Trump is a fascist and will act like a dictator.  They say he is a threat to democracy.  This is coming from an administration that invokes executive orders to mandate vaccines and forgive student debt.  It is coming from a party where the nominee was selected without a single vote cast for her.

Now they are saying that if Trump becomes president that he will prosecute his enemies.  In other words, he might do exactly what Biden’s “Justice” Department is doing to Trump right now.

Of course, this is the same group of people who blamed Trump in the leadup to the 2020 election for allowing riots and chaos in the streets that summer.  Let’s all remember that it was Kamala Harris who tweeted out a message to fundraise for the release of the criminals from the 2020 riots.

Conclusion

Kamala Harris is a total liar.  There was no possibility of an even somewhat honest person being the nominee. They don’t just lie now.  They project themselves.  They rely on the fact that half the country won’t do any of their own research or listen to any alternative media.

To be sure, Kamala Harris is a complete puppet.  She is completely replaceable by the next puppet.  The only qualification is that you repeat the official narrative and stick to the script.  Even being likable is optional these days.

Even for someone who vehemently disagrees with Trump on many issues, it is hard not to at least cheer for him.

It was only a short 4 years ago when much of the country was still in lockdown because of a so-called pandemic.  Even in 2022, there were still restrictions, and people were still being compelled to get a so-called vaccine.

I am still of the opinion that if COVID was not hyped by the government and its puppet media, then we would have barely noticed a thing.  Maybe there would have been a few headlines about having a worse than normal flu season and that elderly people should be extra cautious.

I will not forget the extreme damage that was done through the threatening violence of government.  Some people were prohibited from operating their business or going to their job.  Many people were prohibited from visiting loved ones, even those who were in desperate need of companionship and an advocate.

I will not forget the people who were mistreated (murdered) by the hospitals who just followed orders and did not give proper treatment to people who needed it.  Worse, the hospitals oftentimes gave sick people deadly drugs and threw them on a ventilator because that was the deadly protocol.

I will not forget that about 100 million people were told that they better get a medical injection in their arm or else they will not be allowed to work at their job.

This was a stunning level of authoritarianism, yet it has barely come up in the 2024 presidential election.

Washington DC Orders

It is true that the federal government didn’t issue the lockdowns.  It was done by state governors and city mayors and other local political entities.  Still, it was the federal government recommending the lockdowns, and it is hard to ever use the term “recommending” when it comes to the federal government.  It’s like hearing from the Mafia, “We recommend that you make a payment by Thursday.”

The federal government was giving a lot of bad guidance.  You could say they were constantly engaging in misinformation.  The government was paying hospitals to label everything COVID and put people on ventilators.  The government issued mask mandates for airplanes and federal buildings.  The government funded the so-called vaccines and marketed them, and of course, mandated them.

The people who did this to us are criminals.  They killed a lot of people and ruined a lot of lives.  Yet, it is barely a topic that is discussed.

2024 Politics

It is amazing that COVID has received such little attention.  The “vaccines” and the mandates have received almost no attention.  I think Trump mentioned the word “mandates” once during his debate with Biden.

Kamala Harris referenced COVID once to actually attack Trump.  She said something to the effect that the country suffered under Trump but then the Biden administration brought us through the pandemic.  This is a joke and complete projection.  Trump was bad on COVID for many reasons, yet it was obvious going into the 2020 election that Biden would be far worse.  Biden and his puppet masters exceeded all expectations on just how authoritarian they could be.

It is no surprise that the topic of COVID and the vaccines wasn’t brought up in the debates.  It doesn’t particularly benefit either candidate to do so, and it doesn’t benefit the debate “moderators” to do so.

Trump has done many interviews.  I don’t know he has been asked about COVID recently.  I do recall interviews farther back in time where he was given a little pushback and asked about lockdowns and vaccines.

Harris is doing more interviews now with the election a few weeks away.  She is already tanking in the interviews, but could you imagine how tripped up she would get if she were asked a tough question on COVID vaccines?  I didn’t expect anything from Fox News, but just imagine how bad Harris would have been tripped up with a question such as:

“Vice President Harris, under the Biden administration, an executive order was issued that required about 100 million Americans to receive a medical injection in their arm.  If they refused such injection, they would not be allowed to work at their job and feed their families.  Do you agree that this was the right thing to do by President Biden?  Do you agree that people should not be allowed to work and provide for their families if they do not agree to be vaccinated?”

She would have been a deer in the headlights.  She might have just walked off the set or had some kind of a seizure right on the spot.

Never Forget

The establishment media and the criminals who imposed these lockdowns and mandates don’t want to talk about it much these days.  We should never forget what was done to us by these tyrants.

There have to be millions of people out there who suffered greatly.  There are people who lost loved ones due to mistreatment (to put it kindly).  There are people who lost income during the lockdowns.  There are people who got depressed during lockdowns.  There are people who lost their jobs because they wouldn’t take a jab in the arm.  There are people who were injured after being compelled to take a jab in the arm.

There is really nobody speaking on their behalf right now on the national stage.  I can’t imagine any of these people would vote for Harris.  Perhaps they might vote for Trump as the lesser of two evils.

COVID hysteria and the mandates are still fresh in my mind.  I don’t know how many others still think about it.