An American No-Fly Zone
Where are the Hurricane Sandy Funds?
Election Analysis and Your Investments
Another election has come and gone. Republicans gained a lot of seats and will soon have a majority in the Senate. So what does this mean for you? It means absolutely nothing.
This election really was a repudiation of Obama and all of the Democrats who have followed him. These were generally not votes in favor of Republicans. They were votes against Democrats.
I think the big difference maker was Obamacare. It is completely tied to the Democrats. Most legislation has more subtle negative consequences that happen years down the line. Most legislation will avoid the blame because it is so far in the past or the negative consequences are hard to tie to one thing in particular.
This wasn’t so with Obamacare. The so-called Affordable Care Act has been anything but affordable. This is right around the time that employers are having their employees enroll for next year’s benefits. Employees see how much their health insurance premiums are rising. The election couldn’t come at a worse time for Democrats.
Obamacare is not completely at fault for the dramatically rising premiums. It is certainly partially responsible. But it is getting most of the blame. Therefore, swing voters came out against the Democrats.
This will have very little effect in the next two years. We already have gridlock and this will be more of it. We have a lame duck president who has relatively low ratings right now. He wasn’t going to get anything major done anyway, regardless of who controlled the Senate. We can expect the status quo for the next two years, assuming there are no new major wars. It will be big government and bureaucracy as normal, but we won’t see any new big initiatives. We won’t see any big increases in spending. Of course, we won’t see any decreases either.
I am a little fearful for 2016. The two main contenders may consist of a Republican against Hillary Clinton. Anyone who cares about liberty knows that Hillary Clinton is a complete disaster in every way. But I also fear if there is a Republican president and a majority in both houses of Congress. It may mean more war. It may mean more big government programs, just as we saw early on in the Bush years.
We typically see the smallest increases in government spending when there is a Republican-controlled Congress and a Democrat president. This was true of Clinton and it is true now with Obama.
In terms of your investments, this election changes nothing, at least for the next two years. The Federal Reserve, the NSA, and the CIA all have more control over your life than Congress.
The Fed is going to dictate the economy and your investments for the foreseeable future. The Fed is on hold with its monetary inflation, but I doubt this will last if and when we see stocks tumble or we see GDP shrink.
I am preparing for a possible recession, followed by another round of massive money creation by the Fed. Who knows what the next round of quantitative easing will bring?
For one final note, as a libertarian, I am encouraged by more states somewhat legalizing marijuana. We have taken great steps forward in the last few years and I hope it continues. It gives me great hope that more Americans are discovering liberty as an answer.
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A War on Afghan Drugs
FOMC Finishes the Taper
The Federal Open Market Committee issued its latest statement on monetary policy on October 29, 2014. It finally finished its “taper” that has been going on since the beginning of the year. As of a couple of weeks ago when stocks were going down, I wasn’t sure if the Fed was going to make it to the end of this one.
This marks the end of QE3, or whatever you want to call it. This round of quantitative easing (QE) started around September 2012 at $40 billion per month for mortgage-backed securities (bank bailouts). But the Fed quickly more than doubled this amount a few months later. In December 2012, the FOMC statement announced additional buying of $45 billion per month in longer-term government debt.
Combined, this meant Fed purchases of $85 billion per month in 2013, or approximately one trillion dollars in one year. So QE3 was really the biggest money creation scheme in world history, at least in terms of real wealth. Zimbabwe was creating hundreds of trillions of dollars constantly for a time period, but this was essentially worthless money.
Here is the key part of the latest FOMC statement:
“Accordingly, the Committee decided to conclude its asset purchase program this month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.”
If the Fed does what the statement says, then the adjusted monetary base should stay relatively steady for now. This is after it has quintupled in size over the last 6 years.
While the media obsesses over interest rates, I am mainly concentrating on the monetary base. I am also paying attention to the excess reserves held by banks to see if more money gets loaned out.
The federal funds rate is only mildly interesting at this point. It was important in the past because it tended to dictate monetary policy. A lower rate meant more money creation. A higher rate meant a tighter monetary policy. But in today’s world, this rate doesn’t really matter much, as we can see by the changing monetary policy, despite the federal funds rate target being below .25% for about 6 years now.
If the excess reserves held by banks don’t decrease significantly, then I expect a downturn in the economy. I believe in the Austrian Business Cycle Theory. The Fed’s policies over the last 6 years have misallocated resources and caused something of an asset boom. With a tighter monetary policy now, this boom is going to end. It may happen within a month, or it may take a year or more. But it is almost certain to happen, assuming the reserves stay bottled up and the Fed keeps a tight policy.
I expect the Fed to reverse course and begin to ramp up another round of QE, or digital money printing. It will do this when the economy shows severe weakness. That will probably be the time to start loading up on gold and other real assets.
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