There is an article, linked on DrudgeReport today, that says some Social Security advocates fear a cut in the payroll tax.  Obama recently proposed cutting the payroll tax for Social Security from 6.2% to 4.2% for one year.  It can be assumed that this would just be the employee’s share of the tax and not the employer’s.

This is a joke.  Social Security is a Ponzi scheme.  Not only that, but any additional tax collections that should have been saved have been spent.  There is a Social Security trust fund that is filled with IOUs.  The federal government basically owes itself this money.  It really doesn’t make a difference at this point.  The taxes collected for Social Security have been mixed with the general fund for decades.  The Social Security surplus money of the past has been spent.  Now that it is in deficit, it will be the general fund that makes up the difference.  We can’t say whether it is federal income taxes, excise taxes, corporate taxes, or money printing that will fund the shortfall in Social Security.  All of this money is mixed together.

This is what allowed Clinton to declare a surplus in the late 1990s.  This was a lie.  The payout for Social Security was less than what was collected at that time.  This money should have gone to the Social Security trust fund.  Instead, part of the money was spent and the remainder was used to proclaim a surplus.

Now Social Security is in the red as the payouts are greater than the tax collections.  It isn’t an insurance program and it never has been.  It is broke and there is no way the government will be able to keep all of its promises.  There is going to be a default eventually.  The question is whether it will be a default through inflation or outright default.  I think it will be a combination.  Either way, the whole system is in jeopardy.  It will be painful for many, especially those who are highly dependent on the government.  But the laws of economics have caught up with the system. It will go bust and will be cut back severely.  Long-term, this should be a good thing.

From a personal standpoint, support any cut in taxes that you can, even if it is the payroll tax.  The government is going bust anyway.  We might as well get what money we can now.  The environment continues to point to high future inflation.  We should use any tax cut to increase our positions in hard assets that will hold their value with high inflation.  Take what you can get while it is still there.

The current tax rates are still set to expire at the end of the year.  If nothing is done, the rates will rise.  It had looked like Obama and some of the Republicans had a deal, but now the House Democrats are shooting down the plan.

There are a lot of reasons for unemployment being so high.  One big reason is the Austrian Business Cycle Theory.  The prior Fed inflation caused an unsustainable boom that went bust.  Now, resources are trying to realign themselves to more sustainable things.  Other reasons for high unemployment include the minimum wage, other labor laws, and taxes.

There is another factor in the unemployment situation.  In 22 days, the current tax rates will rise if nothing is done.  How are businesses or individuals supposed to plan in this kind of environment?  There is enough uncertainty with the current economy and the unstable dollar (QE2).  That is bad enough.  But we don’t even know what our tax rates will be in 22 days.  This is really truly unbelievable if you think about it and you can blame both major parties in DC.

The Republicans never made the tax cuts permanent.  Instead, they only passed tax cuts through 2010.  Then the Democrats had almost 2 years, along with Obama, and nothing has been done yet.  On top of it all, this deal that was supposed to happen between Obama and some Republicans wasn’t really a good deal for us citizens.  There were a couple of good things like maintaining the current income tax rates and possibly reducing the payroll tax for a year.  But then there were all kinds of welfare included in the bill, including extending unemployment and funding Obamacare.  So yes, the Republicans have already caved on Obamacare.  To top it off, the death tax would come back at a rate of 35% with an exemption on the first $5 million.  So I guess it would only be the really rich people committing suicide on December 31.

DC is so far gone, it really is hopeless.  We just have to make sure that when the house of cards falls down, that we have done a good job of educating people on the benefits of liberty.  Until then, we should hope for reduced taxes.  The government will continue to spend and inflate, regardless of what the tax rates are.  We might as well try to get our benefit now and convert some of our money into hard assets while they are still relatively cheap.  In the meantime, sit back and enjoy the show and let’s see if Congress can get the tax rates figured out in the next 3 weeks.

The bond market has taken a beating in the last couple of days.  Interest rates have gone up quite dramatically over just a 2 day period and mortgage rates are following.  This is ironic, considering the fact that Bernanke’s reasoning for QE2 is to lower interest rates.  Rates have gone up since his announcement of QE2.

I have been saying that for gold to go to the moon, interest rates would have to start rising.  It’s not that high interest rates cause gold to go higher, but there should be some correlation if gold starts to rise dramatically due to price inflation.  It has been a battle between gold and bonds up to this point.  Both did poorly today. Bonds have been telling us that there is little to worry about as far as inflation because rates have been so low.  Gold has been rising, which is possibly telling us something different.

I think for gold to go to $2,000 per ounce or more, interest rates are going to rise.  This is not to say that you should wait to invest in gold until rates rise.  You should be significantly invested in gold or gold related investments now.  But again, for gold to really go sky high at this point, we need to start seeing some price inflation.  You may see a little price inflation at the gas pump and the grocery store, but the bond market has been telling us that it is not a significant threat in the future.  I think the bond market is finally waking up to the reality.

With all of that said, I would not short the bond market at this point.  If you do, you should know that it is a total crap shoot.  Bernanke has barely started QE2, if at all.  QE2 means the Fed will be buying bonds.  Although it means the Fed will be inflating the money supply (despite what Bernanke says) which could ultimately be negative for bonds, for now the Fed will be bidding up bond prices.  It’s not to say that the Fed will be successful in driving down rates in the short term, but I wouldn’t bet against the Fed at this point either.

Yesterday I talked about Ben Bernanke’s interview on 60 Minutes.  It is still a fascinating topic.  Here is one of the most powerful men in the world.  I won’t say that he is the most powerful because he can’t launch a nuclear attack, but he could certainly fund it.  This is a guy that essentially controls the nation’s money supply.

The interviewer asked some decent questions, but the problem is that he had no follow ups.  This makes him almost useless as an interviewer if he is not going to challenge Bernanke on the things he says.  I keep going back to Bernanke’s comment that he is not changing the supply of money in circulation.  How can he make this comment and not elaborate?  How can the interviewer not follow up?  Up until this point, his statement is true.  The monetary base has not risen, even after his QE2 announcement.  I’m not sure when it will start to rise.

But if he goes through with QE2, then the monetary base has to go up.  It will be an increase in the supply of money.  The Fed is technically not printing money, but they are doing the equivalent and creating money out of thin air.  It is done on a computer instead of a printing press.  But the key word in his comment is “circulation”.  He is saying that the increased money supply won’t be in circulation.  If he really means this, then that means that banks will continue to accumulate excess reserves.  But then if they are doing this, then that defeats the whole purpose of him lowering interest rates.

This whole thing has to be price inflationary at some point.  The velocity of money has been low since the fall of 2008.  This has helped keep prices down.  At some point, some of this money will end up in circulation.  Bernanke cannot time when he is going to withdraw the money.  He will get into a situation, something like the 1970’s, with high price inflation and a stagnant economy.  He will eventually have to choose between massive inflation and depression.

The problem, as I’ve pointed out before, is that he will not be able to withdraw all of the new money.  In 2008 and early 2009, the Fed bought assets from the banks in the form of mortgage backed securities.  Some of these are now only worth a fraction of what the Fed paid for them.  Selling them back into the market will only withdraw a portion of the money that was used to buy them in the first place.

Bonds are the same way.  If interest rates go up, the bonds they have bought will be worth less.  They can withdraw some of the new money, but not all of it, if interest rates rise.  I really don’t think Bernanke knows what he is doing now.  He cornered himself in many years ago when he apologized to Milton Friedman on behalf of the Fed for allowing the Great Depression to happen.  Bernanke thinks that it was the Fed’s fault, not because of the initial artificial boom, but because the Fed did not print enough money once it was there.  This is his legacy.  He is trying to make sure that he doesn’t allow another Great Depression on his watch.  In the process, he will just about destroy the U.S. dollar.

Ben Bernanke was on 60 Minutes last night.  If you didn’t get to see it, go ahead and watch it.  This is one of the most powerful men in the world.  Even if you don’t like him and think he is a total liar or a total fool, you should still pay attention to what he is saying.

The interview is quite interesting.  The first thing I noticed is that he sounded nervous.  Maybe I don’t listen to him enough and this is the way he always sounds.  While there were a lot of interesting soundbites, the most interesting one was about inflation.

The interviewer asked him about inflation.  Bernanke said that “the amount of currency in circulation is not changing.  The money supply is not changing in any significant way.”  He said they are lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy.

I don’t understand what he is talking about here.  Is he saying that the banks will increase their excess reserves (as was done 2 years ago)?  That is what one economist thinks (see halfway down the article).  That is really the only explanation for his comment.  If the Fed is buying U.S. bonds, then it is creating money.  The government could sell bonds to individual investors, to companies, or to foreign governments and none of these actions alone would be inflationary.  But if the Fed is buying U.S. government bonds, then the Fed is creating money out of thin air to buy them.  Therefore, for him to say that the amount of currency in circulation is not changing, would have to mean that the additional money gets bottled up at the banks.

Of course, he didn’t say this and the interviewer didn’t follow up with him.  It contradicts his other statements.  If he is engaging in QE2 to lower interest rates and encourage lending, then how is lending taking place if the banks are increasing their excess reserves?  So are the banks going to lend or are the banks going to increase reserves?  Which is it Bernanke?  And what is it you want them to do Bernanke?

The man is either a liar or a fool.  But he is in a position of great power and we must listen to what he says. His actions dictate the future of the economy and they dictate how certain investments will behave.  If he is right that there will be no additional money in circulation, then we should be cautious about stocks and gold.  If he is wrong, then we should expect high price inflation to follow the high monetary inflation and we could see gold skyrocket more than it already has.

Shockingly, it has been revealed that in 2008 and 2009, the Federal Reserve (Fed) not only bailed out U.S. banks, but it also supported many non-banks and many foreign banks.  It is not shocking that it happened (for anyone paying attention), but it is shocking that it was actually revealed.

Of course, during the time, we heard cries from Bush, Paulson, and all of the other establishment figures in DC, telling us that we had to have a bailout or we could see the whole system collapse.  Due to the threat of a run on banks, there was a slight element of truth to what was being said.  After all, a run on the banks could have collapsed the banking system (because of the severe fractional reserve lending and the bad loans that had been made by banks) and then it would have been left to the FDIC to pay the bill.  Since the FDIC wouldn’t have been able to cover 1% of the total deposits necessary, then it would have been bailed out by the Fed.  From a libertarian standpoint, we will address this issue at a later time, but I am just pointing out that there was a slight element of truth of what was being said by the establishment.  They weren’t specifically talking about bank runs very much, but that really was a threat.

With all of that said, most of the bailout was a total fraud.  It was obvious then for anyone who knows how the government operates, but this latest story reveals just what a fraud it was.  The Fed was bailing out companies like Verizon, Harley Davidson, and Toyota.  We already knew that it bailed out GM and Chrysler.  These bailouts have almost nothing to do with the banking system and a possible financial collapse.  It is simple favoritism.  It is corporatism.  It is fascism.  It is almost everything but capitalism.

By propping up these companies, the government is wasting resources.  Whether it is through loans or straight subsidies, the government is taking private money (whether through taxes or inflation) and it is directing this money to failure.  It is misallocating resources on a grand scale.  This money could have been used towards profitable companies or towards savings and investment.  This money should have been allocated by the billions of individuals that owned it.  Every person and entity that has U.S. dollars in their possession was ripped off by this.

Not only is this a waste of resources and will mean a lower standard of living because of a decrease in savings and investment, it will also have to be corrected.  The Fed has delayed the correction process.  In the future, these resources will have to be directed by the free market to their proper place.  They will shift from failed companies to profitable ones.  This will take time and pain, but the correction is necessary.

The government and the Fed keep making things worse.  They are delaying the inevitable and the correction will be worse for it.  Be prepared for interesting times ahead.

There is an article (via Drudge Report) that says a failure to extend tax cuts, especially the capital gains rate, could lead to a stock market crash.  Basically, people would look to lock in gains at the lower capital gains tax rate.

This makes sense in a lot of ways.  If you sell a stock for a loss to try to claim the loss on your tax return and then you buy back the same stock, you could be subject to the wash-sale rule if you bought it back within a certain time frame.  I know of no such rule for selling winners.  That is because the government usually wants you to pay your tax and would rather you pay it now than later.  You almost have to wonder if congress comes up with some kind of penalty for selling a winning stock and then buying it back within a short time frame.

If I had a winning stock, I would sell it before the end of the year.  Why not pay the lower capital gains tax rate now than pay a higher one later?  And if you still want to own the stock, you could always sell it and buy it back.

This scenario is a real possibility.  The only question is how many people own winning stocks right now.  The market is about even over the last decade.  But still, there have been enough wild swings that there are definitely more than a handful of people that own winners right now.  There might be people who bought shares in March of 2009.  There might be people who bought 15 years ago that never sold.  There also might be people who bought individual stocks that have been winners (for example, Apple).

This could signal trouble for stocks that have had a big run lately.  A hike in the capital gains tax rate would give shareholders an incentive to sell before the end of the year.

While nothing is a guarantee (and that is always the case in investing), it might be an interesting time to speculate in shorting the market.  Before anything, I would lighten the load on stocks if you own any.  But you could also try speculating with a short ETF.  There are short ETFs for the major markets.  There are also double and even triple shorts for leverage.  Again, this would be a speculative play, but it might be worth a gamble with a small percentage of your money.

This is the latest news.  Nothing is really a surprise anymore.  The report says that the U.S. would be ready to commit extra money to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which ultimately would be seemingly used to bail out failing European governments and banks.

How significant is this development?  By itself, it is not that significant.  But it is just another sign that the governments of this world are out of control and the U.S. is in as much trouble as any other government.  The U.S. government has been able to prolong its out of control spending and debt because the U.S. dollar is the reserve currency of the world.  But this too will come to an end eventually.

Greece, and now Portugal and Ireland among others, have felt the pinch because they are more like state governments in the U.S.  For example, Greece is more like California than the U.S. government.  Why?  The reason is because Greece does not have direct control over the euro, which is the currency that is used in the country.  California also does not control the U.S. dollar.  That is up to the Fed.  In Greece’s case, it is the European Central Bank and the other governments of Europe that can bail out Greece.  Greece cannot simply print money to buy its own bonds the way that the Fed does.

But every game like this must come to an end.  The game of the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve will come to an end eventually.  We can know this by studying Austrian free market economics.  The Fed will eventually have to make a choice.  It will face hyperinflation and it will have to choose.  It can either completely destroy the dollar or it can save it.  I think the Fed will try to save it, but hopefully before it is not too late.  To save the dollar, the Fed will have to refuse to buy more government bonds.  This will drive rates sky high.  The congress and president will then have to choose.  They will have to cut back severely (including Medicare, Social Security, and the empire overseas) or it will have to default on its debt.  It may have to do some combination of both.

Either way, the day of reckoning is coming.  Be prepared with your family and your investments.  Try to educate others on why this is happening.  Try to educate others that liberty is the answer to our problems and not more government.  Then when the dollar and DC come crashing down, we will be there to pick up the pieces and instead of continuing with more big government, we can move forward with peace and freedom.

Every individual in this world is different.  We all have some of the same basic needs, but our desires and preferences vary greatly.  Two people both need to eat food to live, but they might choose different foods to eat.  This is just one thing.  If we start comparing desires, the differences are vast.  Even if the two people have similar interests, their priorities will still differ in some ways.

When you earn a dollar, whether it is through selling something or working for someone or getting a gift, you will choose what to do with that dollar.  You may use it to buy a basic need like food, shelter, or clothing.  After these initial needs are taken care of, there are other things on your priority list.  Maybe it is buying a car or taking a vacation.  Maybe it is buying more expensive food or eating out at a restaurant.  The point is, you are going to do what you want with it.

When the government takes your money, politicians are deciding on how they want it to be spent.  The best you can hope for is that they will spend it on something near the top of your priority list.  But everyone’s priorities are different.  Therefore, everything the government spends is a misallocation of resources.  If the money were left in the hands of the individuals that earned it, it would be spent or saved how that person wanted.

With all of the taxes, government regulations, and money creation of the past 100 years or so, the government has created huge distortions.  The market tries to work around these things as best as possible, but there are still severe distortions.  The boom and bust cycle is a shorter term version of this whole thing.  The Fed creates money out of thin air and distorts interest rates and causes a boom, whether it is in stocks, housing, or something else.  When the money creation stops or slows down, there is a correction or a bust.  The market is trying to correct the previous misallocation of resources.

This is why there will continue to be tough times ahead.  The government did not allow a correction to fully take place in 2008 and instead dumped vast more amounts of money in bailing out failed companies and trying to prop up the economy.  The government and the Fed will not allow the sick economy to take its tough medicine.  Instead, it just uses a pain reliever to delay the inevitable and ultimately make the problem much worse.

Even if the government did everything right from here on (about as good of a chance as the sun rising in the west), we would still have a severe correction.  The reason is because of the huge misallocation of resources that has previously taken place.  It would take some time for the market to straighten everything out and get things in line with where consumers and investors want them to be.  In a true free market, there might be half as many colleges.  Half of the college professors might need to find another line of work.  Or perhaps the market will demand just as many as now but at a lower pay.  Without subsidized loans and subsidized education, perhaps we would see a dramatic reduction in prices.

It is hard to say how any of this would play out, but that is really the point.  Nobody can determine the preferences of millions of people.  Only each individual and their family can determine where best to put their resources.  Until we dramatically reduce government spending, taxes, regulations, and artificial money tampering, we can only guess what a true free market would look like.

The U.S. dollar has been strong in the last couple of weeks, at least compared to other currencies.  The Euro has done poorly and probably for good reason.  The PIIGS countries are a mess and the European Central Bank is risking a collapse of the euro by bailing out the irresponsibility of European governments.  The collapse of the euro is unlikely to happen overnight, but it will slowly degrade as people realize it is in trouble.  It may take a year or it may take 10 years.

It is surprising that people still flock to the U.S. dollar when uncertainty hits.  This will change eventually, but it may take longer than what it seems like it should.  For some reason, people still have some faith in the U.S. dollar and some put their money there when times get tough.  Look at the fall of 2008 when the stock market plummeted and all of these other events were happening.  Even with a giant bank bailout from the Fed, the dollar still did well during that time.

When it comes to investing, I don’t think investing in other currencies should be a major part of your portfolio.  My favorite mutual fund, PRPFX, somewhat mimics the permanent portfolio as described by Harry Browne.  However, PRPFX does invest a little portion in foreign currency, particularly the Swiss franc.  There is nothing wrong with this because it is a small portion and the fund is so well balanced.  But generally speaking, I don’t see the need to invest in foreign currencies.

If you want diversification from the dollar (or whatever currency you use for your income and expenses), then  hard assets will serve you fine.  Gold in particular is really the best hedge against a falling currency.  Other things like silver and oil can also do well, but gold is probably the best.

Just to be clear, there is nothing wrong with speculating in foreign currencies, but it should be seen as speculating.  Long-term, I don’t see why you would choose to invest in foreign currencies.  Yes, the dollar is a bad bet long-term, and it will eventually lose its status as the reserve currency of the world.  But, why would the yen, the euro, or anything else be any better?  They are all fiat currencies and can be debased by governments and central banks.  That is why they should not serve as part of your long-term investment portfolio.  You should leave foreign currencies for speculation with money that you can afford to lose.