The price of gold hit new all-time highs this week in terms of U.S. dollars.  As I write this, the price is at about $1,990.  One small up day from here will put it over $2,000 per ounce.

It’s about time. The Fed has been on a money creation spree since the fall of 2008.  The Fed did hold steady from late 2014 up until last year, but the rest of the time saw unprecedented balance sheet expansion.

It’s still a bit curious why gold peaked in 2011 and started to fall in 2012.  Perhaps it was in anticipation of the Fed winding down its QE.  But really, I think it is just mostly about demand.  The economy seemed to be getting a little stronger at that point even though the Fed was still creating money and keeping interest rates low.  Most investors went to stocks and real estate.

I think this officially marks the resumption of the gold bull market that started at the turn of the century.  I should know because I bought my first gold in 2000 or 2001 when it was around $300 per ounce. It’s now up almost seven-fold over two decades, which is actually better than if I had bought stock index funds. I understand that I am comparing it based on gold’s low point, but it is still worth noting because I hear so often that gold is a bad investment because it doesn’t pay any dividends.

The Fed’s balance sheet has calmed down a bit since late May, but there was a lot of damage done from March through May of this year.  The balance sheet exploded by almost $3 trillion.  Plus, Congress is still running massive deficits, tax collections are presumably way down, and they are talking about another massive bailout/ stimulus bill. I don’t think bond investors can support all of this new debt at these low rates without the Fed playing a significant role.  In other words, I expect the Fed will continue to expand its balance sheet.

The FOMC met this past week, but its major moves happened months ago.  Its targeted federal funds rate is already near zero, and its QE is essentially open ended.  Therefore, there isn’t much to report.  The Fed will do whatever the Fed feels like doing.

In its statement, it said “The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world.”  I have had to frequently correct people on this point.  The coronavirus isn’t causing economic hardship. It is the fear and reactions to the coronavirus that have caused the economic hardship.

So the Fed is just playing it by ear.  It has always done this to some degree, but at least in the past there was some predictability.  I suppose there is predictability now in the sense that rates will stay near zero and the Fed will continue to buy up government debt.

When it comes to politicians and central bankers, I think there is a lot of evil.  They lie, and they purposely do things to enhance their own power.  And while I still think that’s true, I also believe that the central bankers really don’t have that much of a clue of what to do other than to just keep creating money.

While I think the establishment hyped the coronavirus up, it wasn’t the Fed that locked down the economy.  It isn’t even the Fed that is running up the debt.  But the Fed is enabling the run up of the debt by supporting it.  It really doesn’t know what else to do. Jerome Powell and company don’t necessarily want a destroyed economy, but they have no other solutions. They could tell Congress that the Fed will no longer be buying U.S. government debt, but we all know that’s not going to happen.

On top of all this, GDP came in this week.  In the second quarter, there was a decline of 32.9% (see update below).  This is unprecedented.  While it isn’t a perfect measurement, it does give us an idea of just how bad things were and will continue to be.  There probably hasn’t been a decline in economic growth that steep since the so-called Civil War in the 1860s.

It’s interesting that economic growth can decline by one-third and we can have over 40 million new unemployment claims, while stocks are at or near all-time highs. Stocks seem to like the Fed’s funny money as much as gold.

Still, I would bet on gold over stocks over the next few years.  Stocks are still in a massive bubble.  Investors almost seem to no longer worry about actual earnings.  Eventually, there is something of a return to the mean, even with the massive monetary inflation.

I still like gold stocks as a speculation play.  It is an opportunity that I have been waiting for, for quite some time. There will be significant pullbacks in the gold market, but I expect it will continue to go higher from here.

Update: To be clear, the 32.9% GDP drop in the second quarter is an annualized rate.

I am ready to cry “uncle”.  The establishment is showing that it is still in charge as long as Americans are stupid enough to believe the propaganda they put out.  The establishment briefly lost control in 2016.  There was Brexit.  Then there was the election of Trump.

The establishment and its media told us that we have to vote for Hillary Clinton.  They told us that Trump is a horrible human being who would be a horrible president.  Maybe they were right, but compared to what?

I didn’t vote for Trump, but I sure did enjoy the night of the election in November 2016 when the results started rolling in.  I enjoyed the next day watching the shocked faces of the establishment shills.

Ever since then, they have been trying to destroy Trump and what he represents.  There are a lot of bad things to say about Trump, but he has represented a thumb in the eye of the establishment to a large degree.

They tried the Russia hoax.  They tried Ukrainegate.  They got an impeachment, but he is still in office.  They have turned the lives upside down of many of his former associates by accusing them of Russian collusion, or lying to Congress, or whatever they can get away with.  They hang on to every word Trump says, trying to make him look bad.  It has worked on the people who already hated Trump, but close to half the country doesn’t hate Trump.

In early 2020, Trump downplayed the coronavirus.  He basically said it isn’t a big deal and that Americans should carry on with their lives.  This was the opportunity the establishment had been waiting for, and they took advantage of it.

This is one of the main reasons why there is so much hype coming from the establishment media. We hear about the death counts, even though they are wildly inaccurate.  We hear about the cases.  We continually hear anecdotal stories about someone who isn’t elderly and supposedly died of the virus.  We have had government lockdowns due to the hysteria, and now we have mask mandates almost everywhere.

The economy has largely been destroyed, which is the one major theme Trump had to run on.  I personally don’t think the economy was strong anyway heading into 2020, but the forced lockdowns obviously brought on a hard recession very quickly.  Now the only thing Trump can say is that the economy was strong and that it will eventually come roaring back (even though it won’t).

The establishment, in 2020, has finally been able to take the air out of the Trump bubble. They have made us all pay dearly for ever having put Trump in the presidency.  I can’t be sure, but if Trump weren’t president, I have a feeling the coronavirus would have been more similar to the swine flu of 2009/ 2010.  There would have been some extra precautions in hospitals, but most of life would have gone on as normal.

Trump hasn’t lost yet though.  I think the left is overplaying their hand with the protests and race wars.  This could actually help Trump.

I’m still not sure if Biden will actually be the Democratic nominee, but if he is, Trump is definitely still in it.  Biden can’t stay in his basement and say nothing up until Election Day. He will have to come out and make a fool of himself at some point.

I am not voting for Joe Biden or Donald Trump in November.  I will consider voting for Jo, not Joe.  That is Jo Jorgensen with the Libertarian Party, although I may not even vote for her.  She is too busy trying to please the radical leftist social justice warriors instead of selling a message of a liberty to the American people. But that’s a subject for another day.

I may not even be cheering for Trump in November as I did in 2016.  While it might be fun for a day to see the look of despair on the faces of the most evil people on television, I don’t want to be punished for another 4 years.

Since most Americans are willing to believe almost anything they are told by the establishment media, at least when it comes to the coronavirus, I don’t know what will be done to us next if Trump actually wins.  Will we be on lockdown for another 4 years?  Will we have permanent mask mandates?

The American people are eating the propaganda given to them, and they are enslaving themselves as I never thought they would.  From now on, all the establishment has to do is announce the next dangerous version of the flu, and nearly everyone will just fall into line.  They’ll isolate themselves, they’ll destroy the livelihoods of their children, and they’ll destroy the economy.  I hope I’m wrong, but this is what has happened in 2020 so far.

Trump has served his purpose.  He has exposed the deep state for what it is for anyone who cares to pay attention.  Most of his policies are still bad.  We are getting spending and deficits today that would have shocked us even under a Bernie Sanders presidency.  Can it get much worse?

It could get worse if Biden or whoever starts yet another war.  Biden or whoever could try to impose mask mandates and lockdowns from the federal government, but I think there would actually be some resistance there, and it would be tough to enforce.

Economically, I don’t see how the policies could get much worse at this point, but I won’t discount the possibility.  Anyway, if things are going to be bad, maybe it’s better for a Democratic Party president to take the blame.

The establishment failed to take down Trump for over 4 years (as candidate and president).  Now the fear of the coronavirus has changed all of that.  A majority of Americans have been played for suckers.  They have believed the same people who continually lie to them about wars. If the establishment and its media will lie to get us into war, why wouldn’t they lie about the threats of the coronavirus?

Since there are so many gullible Americans, I am crying “uncle”.  I don’t want four more years of Trump if they are going to be like this.  I want my children to be able to have activities.  I want to go to concerts and sporting events.  I don’t want to walk around with a mask on my face.

If Trump loses in November, I don’t know if this all goes away.  The politicians obviously like the political power they have gained.  But at least there won’t be an incentive of making everything look bad because of Trump.

If all this hysteria goes away with a Trump loss, then it is hard to cheer for Trump at this point. The establishment has won this round big time, as the American people were played for fools.

After an historic rise, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has settled down.  After going up nearly $3 trillion in a matter of three months, it peaked in early June 2020. The balance sheet actually fell in June, but not by a lot, relatively speaking.  It has started to go back up again in July.

It was obvious the Fed would not be able to maintain the pace of monetary inflation that was seen from March through May.  Still, the federal government continues to run massive deficits that are beyond comprehension.  Meanwhile, Congress is considering another “relief” package, which will probably include more direct payments to Americans.  It is not so much of a relief when you go to the grocery store and see the prices.

I can’t imagine the Fed’s balance sheet will flatten out from here.  I think it will continue rising, although at a slower pace than March through May.  Someone has to buy up all of this government debt, and I don’t think foreign central banks and private investors will be able to cover it all at low rates.

I think we are going to see massive deficits for a while now.  They were already projected to be high before the coronavirus and the lockdowns.  I also think we will continue to see Fed inflation to cover much of these deficits.

The only thing that will change this situation is high consumer price inflation.  That is already a reality with food and some other items.  But we have price deflation with other things that are not in high demand right now, especially in the travel and leisure industry.

With a massively growing national debt and Fed inflation, it is understandable that gold and silver are on the rise.

Gold and Silver vs. The Fed’s Balance Sheet

The Fed massively inflated from 2008 to 2014.  Gold and silver rose substantially from 2009 to 2011/ 2012.  But then the prices retreated while the Fed’s balance sheet kept going up for another 2 or more years.  Still, there was an anticipation that the Fed was slowing down its asset purchases, so there is still somewhat of a correlation.

If the Fed promised right now that it would stop inflating and keep that policy for several years, and if people believed it, then gold and silver prices would likely come crashing down.

But that’s not what is expected to happen.  Most people expect that the deficits will continue and that the Fed will help fund these deficits by buying government debt.  The Fed is now on the hook to bail out a lot of people and businesses and industries.

Gold has hit $1,900 and is near its all-time nominal high.  Silver is well over $20 now, but would still have to more than double to reach its all-time high.

We can’t be sure of anything in this world any more, but I do expect that the price of gold and silver will continue to rise.  Silver carries more risk, but the rewards could also be more lucrative.

Even more lucrative will be mining stocks, which have been hammered for the last 9 years or so, up until this year.  Some of these mining stocks will explode in price if and when gold and silver soar higher.

It is going to be a wild ride though.  There will be big up days, but there will also be big down days.

If you want to speculate in mining shares, I recommend an ETF such as GDX or GDXJ.  They provide some diversification in an otherwise risky industry.  You can also find mutual funds that focus on mining stocks.

I think gold is a necessary hedge against massive inflation and disaster.  It should always be part of your portfolio.  But I think now presents a special time where you can actually try to profit off of it.

Stocks and bonds have both done well lately.  But this may not last.  I still think there is a giant stock bubble.  There is also a bond bubble, but people seek U.S. Treasury debt for safety, as long as price inflation is not seen as an imminent threat.

If and when stocks and bonds fall out of favor, where else will investors turn?  Where will anybody turn who is just looking to preserve their wealth?  I think gold is an obvious answer.

I spent a long weekend in the mountains of North Carolina to attend a relatively small wedding. I was a bit skeptical heading into the trip with everything that’s going on in the world.  The Democratic governor of North Carolina had already issued his edicts that people have to wear a mask inside public places (which includes private property that serves customers).

I don’t want to wear a mask.  I think it is a show. I think it shows a form of obedience to the state.  I don’t want businesses to require mask wearing to enter, but I recognize it is their right to do so.  Unfortunately, these ideas of freedom of association and property rights tend not to run both ways.  Local governments have been requiring businesses to require masks.

As Dr. Joseph Mercola said, I think mask wearing, if it has any effect, is a placebo effect. It makes people feel good that they are “doing something”.  It may reduce some of the anxiety that people have from the non-stop news coverage hyping up the dangers of the coronavirus.

I can say that I never wore a mask one time when I was in North Carolina, and I went to several places to eat.  This included a restaurant where we were served food, and it included fast food restaurants.  In most cases, the workers were not even wearing masks.

We went into one fast food place where the worker asked if we wanted him to wear a mask.  We said “no”.  He was an older gentleman.  He said something to the effect of, “I think this is like the flu, but if it’s my time to go, it’s my time to go.”  In other words, he wasn’t cowering in fear as so many Americans are.

We went to a grocery store.  Some were wearing masks and some weren’t.  We were treated well.  It really was Southern hospitality.

Life almost seemed kind of normal in that town.  It is a lot more rural than what I am accustomed to, but it was really nice being there.

This was clearly civil disobedience occurring.  I don’t know that everyone else saw it that way.  I wonder sometimes why there aren’t more vocal opponents of the mask mandates and the other orders coming down from dictatorial mayors and governors.

I don’t know what this place looked like back in April.  Maybe the restaurants were closed for dining in.  I really don’t know.  But in July, they were not paying much attention to government orders.

It is obvious that the local sheriff doesn’t care about trying to enforce the governor’s orders, at least when it comes to mask wearing.  The people there are basically saying, “If the governor wants to enforce his edicts, he can come here and try to enforce his edicts.” I don’t think the governor is going to be sending in the National Guard to enforce mask wearing.  There is probably something of a mutual understanding between the governor and the more rural parts of North Carolina.  The governor will pretend he is doing something.  The people in the rural areas just keep quiet and don’t pay any attention to him.  The both sides ignore each other.

I think it is a good lesson for life.  There are times and places to fight back.  But sometimes there are times and places where you realize you can’t control the circumstances, but you can control some of the circumstances around your own life.  You find your own pockets of freedom, and you exercise that freedom.

Mortgage rates are at or near all-time lows. If you have good credit, you may be able to refinance your mortgage with a 30-year fixed rate in the neighborhood of 3%.  A 15-year fixed or 20-year fixed would likely have a slightly lower interest rate.

The first question you have to ask is whether it makes sense to refinance at all.  If you are already at 3.5% or lower, it probably doesn’t make sense.  Sometimes your current mortgage holder will offer a streamlined refinance with little or no closing costs.  This would be the only situation where it might make sense to refinance into a rate that is only half a percentage point less.

You might ask why a lender would allow you to refinance with minimal closing costs.  The answer is that the lender doesn’t want you to refinance with another lender and lose you as a customer.  I am not sure how common it is for lenders to have these types of offers today, but I did this with a condo I had many years ago. I paid zero closing costs and got a better rate.

Many people wonder if it is smart to refinance because they wonder if rates will go lower.  I don’t think this is a good strategy. Nobody knows where rates are headed in the next month or the next year.

If you are borderline on whether to refinance, then maybe it makes sense to wait to see if rates drop a little more.  This would be a scenario where it would take you several years to break even from your closing costs.  You may not want to spend thousands of dollars in closing costs to save $40 per month on your mortgage.

When you are calculating whether refinancing makes sense, be sure to account for the length of your loan.  Some people will compare their current payment to a new payment with a 30-year fixed.  This doesn’t make sense.  If you have 25 years left on your current loan and you refinance to a 30-year loan, your payments would be lower even if your rate stayed exactly the same.

If you have 20 years left on your loan, compare your current payments to what your payments would be on a 20-year loan.  It’s not to say you have to get a 20-year loan with your refinance, but it enables you to compare.

Now let’s say you decide that it makes sense to refinance.  The next question is what the length of the loan should be. It would typically be 30 years, 20 years, or 15 years.

You also have to decide whether to get a fixed rate or variable rate loan.  I would definitely stay away from any kind of balloon payment loan.

Unless you are planning to sell your property in the somewhat near future, I think it makes sense to lock in a fixed rate.  This is especially true now with interest rates being so incredibly low.

Liquidity and Wealth Building

So we are left with the question on how long the refinance should be.

Let’s use an example of someone who has owned a house for 10 years.  He originally took out a 30-year mortgage, and he has made his minimum payments since that time.  If he just kept his loan and made the minimum payments each month, he would have 20 years left on the loan.

Let’s say the loan is at 4%.  He can refinance to a 30-year mortgage at 3% fixed.  He can refinance to a 20-year fixed at 2.75%.  He can refinance to a 15-year fixed at 2.5%.  What makes the most sense?

You will, of course, have to look up the rates and get a quote for yourself.  But this example is pretty close to where rates currently stand as I write this.

I don’t have a clear-cut answer on what is right to do.  As with so many things dealing with personal finance, it really is personal. But there are considerations to take into account.

If you are really struggling financially, then you should probably take the longer term.  I don’t like to do this generally, but I know a lot of people are hurting right now.  Some people are facing unemployment or reduced wages because of the world we live in.  If you are really struggling, then it is better to lock in the lower payments. You can always decide to pay extra toward your mortgage later if and when your financial situation improves.

And that is the argument some people make for always taking out a 30-year loan.  You can always pay the extra amount as if you wanted to pay it off in 15 or 20 years.  But it gives you flexibility.  If you end up with an unexpected emergency like a major expense or a fall in income, then you can always go back to paying the minimum monthly payment. So I really like the longer-term loan for flexibility.

So why would anyone want to go into a shorter-term mortgage?

The answer is because not everyone needs this flexibility, or they already have flexibility because of their overall financial situation.  You may have hundreds of thousands of dollars saved in retirement accounts or even in a non-retirement brokerage account. You may have 9 months of living expenses in the bank.  Therefore, your already have flexibility and you just want to concentrate on building more wealth.

If you refinance into a 15-year mortgage, then you will likely get a lower rate.  Even if it is just half of a percent, that makes a substantial difference over time.  You will pay a lot less in interest to your lender over the course of the loan.

I think discipline can also play a role for some people.  If you go with the 30-year loan, will you take the difference and save the money?  Will you invest it or put it into an emergency fund?

To get to the heart of the matter, let’s consider an example of where someone continues to refinance every 10 years and goes back into a 30-year loan.  The monthly payments will keep going lower and lower, but there will always be payments.

If your goal is wealth accumulation, then you should also have a goal of not paying interest to lenders.  If you are a savvy investor who can continually get returns above the interest rate on your mortgage, then maybe it makes sense not to eventually pay off the mortgage due to opportunity costs.  But this is fantasy land.  There are no guaranteed returns like this for entrepreneurs and investors.

You don’t get wealthy paying interest.  You get wealthy by collecting interest.

I know there is also the factor of inflation, but even here it holds true.  Three percent interest is still three percent interest, even if it is in depreciated money.

Again, I have no clear answer on the question of what length of loan to get on a refinance. However, you should always keep your long-term goals in mind.  In this case, you want to accumulate wealth.

And that leads to the last thing regarding refinancing.  Some people take out more money in a refinance than what they owe at the time. This is a cash-out refinance.

I don’t want to say to never do it.  If you can’t put food on the table, then obviously I can’t argue with this as a method to temporarily hold you over, although maybe selling your house is a better option.  There are also rare cases where there may be an outstanding investment opportunity.  In most cases though, I think it is better to avoid doing this or you will forever have a mortgage payment.

Don’t lose sight of the ultimate goal, which is wealth accumulation.  If you can get to a point where your mortgage is paid off, it will tremendously help your cash flow, and you will be able to accumulate wealth that much faster.

Back in March, I wrote a post about Bastiat, Hazlitt, and the coronavirus. I wrote about the unseen consequences of the lockdowns.  I wrote about a cost/benefit analysis.

Frederic Bastiat and Henry Hazlitt wrote about unseen consequences in their respective days. Hazlitt said that the ability to see the longer and indirect consequences of an action is what distinguishes a good economist from a bad economist.  A bad economist only looks at the direct consequences of an action.

In 2020, I have figured out that there are a lot of bad economists.  Maybe more accurately, there are people who just don’t think about economic consequences at all.  Maybe even more accurately, there are many people who just don’t think about consequences at all.

When someone says we need government lockdowns and mask mandates, you may challenge it on the economic consequences.  The common response is that you are selfish to just care about the economy. You should care about human life.

They think that economics is watching the stock market go up.  They think that economics is how much money is in your bank account. Of course, I would be quick to point out that having some money in your bank account that actually buys something is rather important.  If you advocate policies where people will have trouble buying basic necessities, how much do you care about human life?

I don’t think most people are thinking through the many consequences of the hysteria over the coronavirus.  I want to make clear that it would be possible to have hysteria without government intervention, which would have detrimental effects.  But at least these would be voluntary, and they would tend to be minimized.  People who weren’t living in fear could go about their lives and associate with others who also weren’t living in fear.  Maybe concerts and big sporting events would get cancelled, but at least you could go to a restaurant and dine, or anywhere else that remained open.

I’ll also point out that the state and its media lapdogs have largely caused this hysteria with their fake models and bogus statistics.  If there were no CDC and no FDA, would anyone even be talking about a coronavirus right now?

Living Life

I have continued to make libertarian arguments against government lockdowns and mask mandates and every other form of coercion that has come with the coronavirus hysteria. I have also talked about the bad statistics and the propaganda.

But for now, let’s forget all of that.  Forget the bad statistics and the propaganda.  Even forget about libertarianism for now.  Just concentrate on good economics and you can see the foolishness of lockdowns and mask mandates.

There are massive economic consequences, but there are also the psychological consequences. Think about kids living in fear, missing sports and activities, and not playing with friends.

I am thankful that my kids are not fearful about the virus.  They have missed many activities and suffer consequences from the fear in our society, but at least they are not living in fear themselves.  I don’t think I can say the same about many other kids.

I walk through the grocery store and I see little kids wearing masks.  What do their parents tell them?  “You have to wear this mask or you could get a virus and die.”  Or are they more subtle with, “You have to be socially responsible towards your fellow human beings.”?

How much psychological damage is this doing to kids?  And what do the parents of these kids say when asked why not everyone else is wearing a mask?  I wonder what names I am being called by the mask-wearing parents.

What about the hopes and dreams of these kids?  What about the hopes and dreams of young adults?

I am a big basketball fan, although I hate the politics that enter into the NBA and other sports. But I couldn’t help but think of the college kids in March.  This was supposed to be March Madness.  This is the big event in NCAA basketball, and it was cancelled due to fear.  Imagine being a senior in college and this was the first year you were going to make it to the big dance.  At the time, this is your whole life.  For the rest of your life, you can say that you played in the NCAA basketball tournament.  Then, in the matter of days, it gets all taken away from you.  You’ll never have another chance again.  You won’t get to show your future kids video of you playing on national television in the biggest college tournament.

What about someone who worked and saved hard for 20 years to start up a business of his dreams? Then it all gets ripped away. The revenue has stopped, but the expenses keep coming.  You can only last so long without customers, especially when you aren’t even allowed to open your doors, and when they finally do open, you have hundreds of new regulations to follow.

What happens to the landlords who are no longer able to collect rent?  Most landlords aren’t rich.  It typically takes a long time to get wealthy through rental real estate.  It is the long game for most.  It isn’t as easy as shown on HGTV.  Now there are tens of millions of people who don’t have jobs.  Some of them can’t pay the rent.  There are also some who can pay rent but don’t because they were essentially told by the government that they don’t have to.

It is becoming a bad business for landlords.  So there may be fewer landlords in the future.  This will likely lead to more homelessness.  There is already an epidemic of homelessness in places like Los Angeles and San Francisco.  Do all of these people advocating lockdowns count homelessness as an economic effect?

You don’t have to be a libertarian to understand the utter insanity of the world we live in right now.  The human race is collectively shooting itself in the foot, or worse.

I hope the kids of today grow up and look back and 2020 and say, “What a bunch of idiots.” Because that is really what we are dealing with today.  I am just wondering how life can ever go back to something resembling normal.

The lockdown lunatics and mask Nazis have really dug in deep.  The mask wearing has become a farce.  I see people wearing them incorrectly, but that may sometimes be a sign of slight defiance.  I also see people touching and adjusting their masks.  If you are really worried about a virus, you shouldn’t be touching your face.

How can the mask Nazis ever return to life without wearing a mask?  After all, there is always some flu bug floating around out there, and they could potentially have it without showing symptoms yet, and they could conceivably spread it to some elderly person in poor health.

Wearing a mask has just become the politically correct thing to do.  But don’t worry about the millions of children having nightmares about catching a virus and dying, even though there is almost no possibility of that actually happening.

Since so many kids are missing out on the psychological abuse experienced in government schools, I guess they need to make up for it by scaring kids about viruses and making them wear masks.

It has surprised me in 2020 how easily Americans surrendered personal liberty because of a virus. From this time forward, any time politicians or bureaucrats want greater control over the populace, should we expect to hear about a new deadly disease to scare the people into giving up more liberty?

There tend to be two camps with regard to the coronavirus.  There is one camp of people who think the virus is incredibly serious and much more dangerous than anything we have dealt with in the last hundred years.  They tend to believe most of what the establishment media tells them. This group also tends to favor government lockdowns and mask mandates.

The other camp thinks the hype over the virus is vastly overblown.  They don’t believe everything the so-called mainstream media tells them.  There are widely varying opinions on the seriousness of the coronavirus, but this camp generally thinks it is not as serious as what is being told to them by the establishment media.  This group tends to oppose government lockdowns and mask mandates.

As with most things, there are nuances.  I know of a few people who thought the virus was incredibly serious and far more dangerous than a typical flu.  Yet, they opposed all government lockdowns or any other infringements on liberty in the name of fighting the virus.

I don’t know of anyone who thinks the coronavirus isn’t a big deal but favors government lockdowns and mask mandates.  I’m sure there are politicians and bureaucrats who fit in this category because they just want more power and control, but they are lying.  They are not publicly saying that the virus isn’t a big deal. They are saying it is a big deal so that they can implement their controls over people.

Trusting the Establishment Media

I believe the number one reason I have withstood much of the propaganda is because I don’t trust the establishment media.  Actually, it goes beyond that.  I tend to believe the opposite of what is said until I can verify otherwise.

These are the same people who said that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction.  These are the same people who said that our houses would be underwater due to climate change.  These are the same people who said that Assad used chemical weapons against his own people.  These are the same people who said that Trump colluded with Russia and that Russia hacked the DNC email server.  These are the same people who are now telling us that the Russians paid the Taliban to kill U.S. soldiers.

The establishment media continually lies.  Perhaps even worse, they often present facts without telling the whole story and presenting the whole picture.  They will also cite each other as sources after the original source is based on “an anonymous member of an intelligence agency” or something to that effect.  They also like to cite “studies” that favor their agenda while ignoring others that do not.

When the media started hyping up the virus in late February and early March, I knew not to believe anything said unless I could verify it otherwise.

Back in February, Trump said that the virus in China wasn’t that big of a deal and that Americans should go about their lives.  As soon as he said that, I think it was over.  The establishment that so dearly hates Trump was going to make sure to have him eat his words.  At that point, they were determined to make the coronavirus as bad as possible.

This was the first trick against Trump that really worked.  It took Trump down a few notches.  It also destroyed the economy, which was the main issue that Trump was going to promote in the 2020 election.  The coronavirus and the media’s hype of it did to Trump what Russiagate, Ukrainegate, and everything else failed to accomplish.

Statistics

There was another reason that I never bought into the propaganda about the coronavirus. I can read statistics.

I never believed the modeling.  The models were as reliable as the models used to tell us rising sea levels will put a large chunk of the U.S. underwater in the next few decades.  I don’t care about some hack who says that 2 million people in the U.S. could die of coronavirus based on his phony modeling.

But the statistics were faulty from the beginning.  They were saying that the mortality rate was probably between 2 and 4 percent.  I knew this was bogus. This isn’t how they measure the mortality rate of the flu each year.  With the flu, they make a projection of how many people had the flu.  It isn’t based on positive results.  You can’t just take the number of people who died with the coronavirus divided by the number of people who tested positive for it.

When the 2 to 4 percent mortality rate was being cited, it was based on what was happening in China. Aside from that, it is faulty statistics.  The people testing positive were the people who tended to be the most ill.  So of course the death rate will look high when the total sample of the population is very sick to begin with.

In a typical flu season in the U.S., you might only have a couple hundred thousand people actually test positive for the flu.  But they may project that, say, 30 million Americans actually had it because most people with the flu just stay home and never get tested.  That is how the mortality rate is calculated. In the case of the coronavirus, they were just taking the total deaths divided by those who tested positive.

I figured this out from the beginning.  Why were no other media outlets reporting it this way?  It doesn’t take a mathematician to figure this out.

What to Believe

It is hard to know what is true any longer.  We have been sold so many lies; I can’t even discount some of the seemingly more far-fetched theories out there.

I am quite certain that the death counts have been vastly overstated.  Just because you test positive for coronavirus and you die, it doesn’t mean you died due to the coronavirus.

I don’t trust the case numbers.  They are not counted consistently, and you don’t necessarily have to test positive for the virus to be considered a “case”.

There are theories out there that this virus was made in a lab.  It could have even come from the U.S. government.  I have even read people claiming the whole virus is fake.  In the case of some New York City hospitals, it looks like some people would feel sick and test positive for the virus, or even not test positive.  They would go into the hospital with a panic attack, and the doctors would drug them up and throw them on ventilators to die.  I strongly believe that regardless of the details, people were essentially being murdered in New York City, and likely elsewhere.

There are major questions surrounding testing.  How accurate are the tests for coronavirus?  What about the reliability of anti-body tests?

There are doctors who say that hydroxychloroquine has been very beneficial for coronavirus patients, while others say it is ineffective or even dangerous, especially since Trump has advocated its use.

In addition to all this, we are told to listen to the epidemiologists.  But really, they just want you to listen to the epidemiologists who will tell you the establishment-approved opinion. There are epidemiologists who don’t think the coronavirus is more serious than a regular flu.  There are epidemiologists who don’t think there should be government lockdowns.  But you don’t hear from these people, unless you search them out on your own.

“Expert” doctors give us conflicting information all the time.  That is the case in many fields.  So how is anyone supposed to know what is true?

Knowing Principles Without Knowing Facts

Although we can’t rely on “experts”, we can rely on a foundation of principles.  In this case, I refer to the non-aggression principle (the NAP).  Most libertarians should be familiar with it.

I have my own nuances with the NAP.  This is why I actually favor the Libertarian Party pledge.  Unfortunately, many members of the Libertarian Party don’t seem to follow it.

I believe there may be some rare circumstances where you could conceivably use aggression at least somewhat justifiably.  It isn’t to say it is moral or immoral.  I have used an example of where you are stuck in the middle of a desert and dying of thirst.  There is one person who has hundreds of bottles of water, but he won’t let you have any.  I would probably violate the non-aggression principle and take enough water to survive and be willing to face the consequences of violating someone else’s property rights.

Again, this is an extraordinary example that isn’t likely to ever happen.  In almost all cases, it is safe to stick by the NAP.

What has happened in 2020 is a good example of why it is important to have a foundation of principles – in this case, the NAP.

You don’t have to figure out which experts to trust.  You don’t have to figure out the seriousness of the virus and whether the testing is accurate.  You don’t have to figure out whether the death count is vastly overstated. You just have to understand the NAP.  From there, it is obvious that there should be no government lockdowns, or government mask mandates, or any other government orders.

Notice that the people who oppose lockdowns are almost never imposing their view on others.  I haven’t heard anybody say that a sick or elderly person has to go out shopping.  I haven’t heard anybody say that you are forbidden from wearing a mask (although this used to be the policy of most banks).  Anyone who thinks the virus is incredibly dangerous is free to self-quarantine and take any other measures necessary that don’t violate the rights of others.

To be sure, you still have to make assessments for yourself and your family.  You have to decide if you want to wear a mask. You have to decide if you want to socially distance from others.  You have to decide if you want to eat at a restaurant.  It would also be up to business owners to decide on any policies for their customers.  I may elect not to shop at a business that mandates a mask, but it would be the business’s right to implement such a policy for its customers.

If we had a free market without government interference with voluntary decisions, things would work so much better.  Even if I thought most people were paranoid for nothing, it would tend to resolve itself quickly.

Again, anyone who wants to stay at home is free to continue to do so.  In the meantime, allow people who are willing to bear more risk to go out and do what they want on a voluntary basis.  If anything, this would build up herd immunity faster, and it would be the people willing to take the risk who would lead the way.

The NAP is not a magic bullet that cures all problems in society.  We still have to make personal judgments.  We have to decide which “experts” we are going to listen to.  But with the NAP, it vastly reduces conflict, and it allows society to voluntarily find solutions to problems without imposing on everyone else.

Happy Independence Day!  I am celebrating my freedom by sheltering at home while wearing a mask and spending my government stimulus check.  I sure am glad that I’m not ruled by the British Crown.

When the American colonists seceded from the British, taxes were in the neighborhood of 1 percent. Now, the U.S. government is spending almost 1% of annual GDP every week.  It’s for our safety and security of course.

Just in 2020, we have had state and local governments shutting down private businesses. Perhaps we should be celebrating how our great federalist system has held up.

The Democrats have been concerned throughout Trump’s presidency that he is acting like a dictator.  But when the coronavirus panic hit, the Democrats chastised Trump for not imposing lockdowns. Biden recently said that he wants the federal government to mandate mask wearing.

When the lockdowns were in full swing in April, Trump threatened to use his power to open up the economy.  Then the political left all of a sudden found states’ rights.  Momentarily, states’ rights no longer meant slavery to the left.  It gets really confusing.

Then the protests broke out at the end of May.  All of a sudden, mass gatherings no longer mattered.  Social distancing didn’t matter.  We were originally told the coronavirus was racist because there were a disproportionate percentage of black people dying from it. But as soon as the protests broke out, Black Lives Matter was immune to it, at least according to the media. If you are gathering in mass crowds for social justice, then the coronavirus stays away and you are safe.

With the protests came calls to defund the police.  So the radical leftists favor strict gun control, which means only the military and police would own guns.  But then they want to defund the police.

Are you getting all of this?

Now the protests and the rioting and the looting are slowly settling down.  But we are in “a second wave” of the coronavirus as the number of cases has gone up.  More young people are testing positive, but it is reason enough to impose mask wearing and even re-imposing lockdowns.

This is America 2020.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has increased its balance sheet by approximately $3 trillion over the last four months.  The Fed can now buy almost anything, including stocks and corporate bonds. Stocks are back up as a result. Higher stock prices means capitalism and freedom, right?

The federal government has run up several trillions of dollars in debt over the course of just a few months.  It gets expensive handing out free money to most adult Americans.  It gets expensive paying the majority of unemployed people more than what they were making while working.  It gets expensive to bail out major corporations. Whoever said freedom is free?

That $1,200 check from Uncle Sam will sure buy you some nice fireworks for July 4^th. Don’t worry about paying your rent or mortgage.  You don’t have to for now.  Don’t worry about the rising price of food.  I’m sure it will come back down.  After all, we have freedom.

One unfortunate thing about the coronavirus lockdowns is that schools have been closed.  Now little children may not be taught that they should thank the government for making the world safe for democracy. They may not know that the government saved us from the Great Depression and is there to stimulate the economy when it needs a boost.  I’m sure these children will tune into the reliable news media and get the right facts.  After all, unlike China and Russia, the U.S. media is free and independent from the government and will give you the unbiased facts.

I can’t take much more of this freedom.  You should see the excitement on my face underneath this mask.

Happy Independence Day!