As I write this, there are only five days left until November 3, 2020, which is the final day of voting for the election.  It is hard to call it Election Day since likely more than half of the people who will vote have already voted.  It is more like Election Month now.

I still have no idea who will win the presidential election.  I am not even sure who I am voting for.  Actually, I probably won’t be voting “for” anybody unless I write in a name.  If I vote for Trump or Jo Jorgensen, it would be more of a vote against the establishment than a vote for either of the candidates.

The polling tells us that Biden should win.  But the polling was terribly wrong in 2016.  People who mildly favor Trump, or who really dislike Biden and will vote for Trump, are not people who generally want to announce to the world that they are marking their ballot for Trump.  They certainly don’t want to say it on Facebook and receive the wrath of the their “friends”.  They may not want to tell someone taking a poll either.

There will likely be record turnout in this election.  It’s hard to believe that Trump vs. Biden could bring out more passion than Trump vs. Clinton.  It isn’t really Trump vs. Biden though.  It is Trump vs. the establishment.

I say this knowing well that Trump has surrounded himself by a bunch of establishment people. And Trump himself has mostly supported establishment policies, except that he hasn’t started any new major wars in his four years.

But the establishment absolutely hates Trump because he is a threat to their power.  Trump occasionally tells the truth about important matters, which the establishment hates.  Trump does not fall in line and obey like any president is supposed to do with the major issues.  This is especially problematic for the establishment when it comes to foreign policy.

The tens of millions of Americans who hate Trump and will vote against him by voting for Biden do not hate Trump for the same reasons as the establishment.  Most Americans who hate him, hate him because he is brash.  He doesn’t always speak in niceties the way a typical politician does.  Trump is just supposed to say that he cares about the children and loves puppies.  These people also hate him because they have a caricature of him that has been created by the establishment media.  Sure, Trump creates some of this himself, but anyone who mostly just listens to and reads the establishment media will likely hate Trump because almost every story portrays Trump as a bad guy.

The average Trump hater thinks Trump is a bully.  They think he is some kind of racist.  They dislike him for saying mean things on Twitter. This is not why the establishment hates him.  The establishment figures will accuse him of being a bully and a racist and anything else that portrays Trump in a bad light.  But they hate Trump because he is a disruption to their power.  Trump helps to shine a light on the corrupt establishment and the depth of the power.  Sometimes he does so inadvertently, but he does so nonetheless.  Sometimes the establishment exposes itself by overplaying their hand.

The Republican Anti Establishment

There are people inside the Republican Party, and even some outside the party, who whole-heartedly support Trump.  This doesn’t mean that they think he is perfect.  It doesn’t mean that they think he doesn’t have numerous flaws.  But they see Trump as the right person at the right time to do what nobody else has been able to do.

To be sure, Trump is not a typical Republican.  His foreign policy views have somewhat changed many Republicans’ thoughts on the issue.  In my view, it is for the better.

Trump is not a fiscal conservative.  Of course, almost nobody is once they are in office.  But Trump is not generally good on economics.  He has been decent in terms of reducing some regulatory burdens and reducing corporate income taxes.  He is a disaster when it comes to tariffs and overall government spending.

When Trump ran for the Republican nomination in 2015 and 2016, he was far from the best candidate for fiscally conservative Republicans.  Ted Cruz was better.  Rand Paul was better.  You could make an argument that someone like Marco Rubio would have been better.

But that is not the primary issue.  Republican voters were tired of politicians.  They were tired of Republican politicians without a backbone. They were tired of being told one thing and then getting another once the person got in office.  In many ways, they were right.

The reason Trump got the nomination is because he is a fighter.  He is an alpha male.  He won’t back down from a fight.  This is what many Republican voters wanted.  They trust Trump to take on the establishment and its media. The Republican voters were fed up with the Bushes and Romneys of the world.

There is great enthusiasm for Trump from his supporters.  There may be even more now than in 2016, but there is also greater hatred from the other side than in 2016.

Trump has been holding multiple rallies every day.  When you look at the size of the crowds, it is amazing.  He is getting tens of thousands of people at these rallies.  He is basically speaking in front of the equivalent of a football stadium audience (when stadiums were full) every day, especially when he does two or three rallies in a single day.  This is the live audience.  It doesn’t count how many people see some of it on television.

If Trump loses, there are tens of millions of people in the United States who will have lost their voice.  But these people won’t change any of their views.  They will still exist, even though I’m sure the powers-that-be would love to send them all to a reeducation camp of some sort.

Where will these people go for an outlet?  Who will be their voice?

If Trump does lose the election (legitimately or not), I think Trump still stays as the effective leader of the Republican Party, or at least the leader of a major faction of the Republican Party that has come to despise the establishment.

I have no idea who will run in 2024.  But until then, and maybe beyond, I think Trump remains the leader in many ways.  He will keep on using Twitter as long as he is allowed.  If he is kicked off the platform, he will use an alternative.

Mike Pence will not take over as a leader.  He is a politician.  Most Trump supporters know this.  Pence does not rock the boat.  He’ll do his best to defend Trump to appear to be a team player.  But he is an establishment guy who happens to be a little better on economics.  He will not fight the establishment the way Trump has.

There are no other major politicians who will do this either.  Even someone like Rand Paul will not do it.  There is a reason that Trump easily beat out Rand Paul in 2016 in the Republican primaries.  Rand Paul is not an alpha male like Trump.  Rand Paul also shows signs of wavering in his principles, unlike his father.  Paul has been much better since the 2016 primaries, but he still plays ball with the establishment up to a certain point.  Again, so does Trump, but his rhetoric is abrasive and largely anti establishment.

The anti establishment faction wants a fighter.  That is what it takes to take on the powerful interests in the swamp.  I don’t think Trump has drained the swamp, but he is shined a bright light on it.  We can see better just how thick the swamp is.

There is only one other person right now who can be seen as a major voice for the anti establishment people.  That is Tucker Carlson of Fox News.  It is amazing that Carlson has been allowed to stay on the air, especially in the primetime spot.  His ratings are far superior to any other political show on cable television.

Carlson speaks against the establishment.  He is a fighter.  He is extremely effective with his rhetoric.  I don’t agree with everything he says, but he is persuasive with his monologues and his interviews.  He will cover stories that nobody else in television media dare to touch.

I doubt that Tucker Carlson will run for political office.  I don’t want him to run.  He is far more effective doing what he does every night Monday through Friday.  The anti establishment people need a voice.  If Trump loses the election, they will really need an outlet.  I believe that Trump remains the voice for these people, but Carlson is not far behind.  These are the only two people I can think of.

I don’t know what Republican voters will do in 2024, assuming that Trump or Carlson is not running for president.  The Republican voters will never have this kind of enthusiasm for anyone else. They can more easily spot a fake politician – which is most of them – now that they have seen Trump.

If the nominee in 2024 is Mike Pence or Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz or some governor we have barely heard of, then many will relent and support the person as the lesser of two evils, especially if Kamala Harris is the other evil.  But there won’t be rallies with tens of thousands of people. There won’t be enthusiasm. Of course, there won’t be the anti Trump enthusiasm either.

It is important to recognize that there will be 60 million or more people who vote for Trump. If he loses, these people still exist, and they will want a voice.  If Biden loses, all of the anti Trump people still have a voice.  They have many voices.  It is the entirety of the establishment media, of politicians, of celebrities, of corporate executives, and the entire culture on display.

This is why it is tempting for me to vote for Trump, even though I disagree with many of his policies.  I hate everything that the establishment represents.  I hate the lying, the corruption, and the criminality.  I hate the political control and the brainwashing.

Trump is so imperfect in so many ways, yet he has managed to do what nobody else could.  He has exposed the establishment for the world to see for anyone who cares to look just a little bit with a clear head.

If Trump loses, he is not going away.  What he has done is not going away.  He is not exactly Obi-Wan Kenobi, but if you strike him down, the force may get stronger.  The tens of thousands of people attending his rallies every day will see Trump get struck down.  They have been watching it for over four years.  They hate the establishment more today than the day Trump was elected in 2016.  If Trump loses, the anti establishment people may or may not go into hiding, but I think they will only get stronger.