Median CPI Up in September

The latest CPI figures came in for September 2021.  It was up 0.4% for the month.  While the CPI rose a little below what was expected, it is still higher than the Fed’s supposed target of 2 percent annually.

Now the median CPI has joined the party.  The median CPI had been going up 0.2 or 0.3 percent each month for the last several months.  In September, it rose 0.5%.  The year-over-year median CPI is now at 2.8%.

The median CPI tends to be less volatile than the CPI.  With the median number accelerating, it adds confirmation that price inflation is a real problem.

In another post, I explained that the shortages all over that are being blamed on COVID are really largely a result of Fed policy.  The easy money and artificially low interest rates have caused a massive misallocation of resources.  There are workers out there putting in swimming pools and building luxury cars, while they should be delivering food and manufacturing household necessities.

Of course, I don’t actually know what workers should be doing, but the point is that the market is highly distorted.  The easy money is fueling unsustainable demand for certain things.  It also doesn’t help that Joe Biden and company are seemingly intent on destroying civilization by forcing millions of people out of work because they don’t want a needle in the arm.

If the shortages continue, then higher prices are inevitable.  The only thing to fix that is a hard recession.  Pick your poison.

Since the CPI numbers came out, stocks have done well.  Investors think the Fed is going to keep the party going.  It is quite astounding that the year-over-year CPI has been running at 5% or higher for the last 5 months, yet the Fed keeps saying it is transitory.  The Fed is still creating $120 billion per month in new money, and we are wondering whether an announcement of tapering (merely a slowdown of the money creation) will happen before the end of the year.

If the Fed isn’t slamming on the monetary brakes now, it is easy to see that the FOMC members are planning loose money for as long as they can get away with.

For this reason, we probably haven’t reached the peak of the bubble yet.  Stocks and real estate continue to go wild.  The even more speculative cryptocurrencies are even crazier.  This isn’t going to end well for some people.

Between Congress, Joe Biden and his handlers, and the Federal Reserve, I don’t think you could hatch a plan to do more damage to the economy than what they are doing right now.  With massive spending, massive monetary inflation, and crazy vaccine mandates, it’s almost like they are purposely trying to tear down our civilization.

The madness has awakened a lot of people who were previously not political.  That is the good news.  The bad news is that there is going to be a lot of wreckage to clean up if and when the madness subsides.

2 thoughts on “Median CPI Up in September”

  1. In this environment are you still recommending something similar to a Permanent Portfolio? Or would you be more apt to pay down a 3.25% mortgage or stockpile gold in a safe??

  2. Still keep a solid portion in the PP. If you have liquidity, then you can work on paying down the mortgage. But make sure you have a decent amount of cash/ cash equivalents before putting money in your mortgage.

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