Trust the Experts?

There has been a loss of faith in “the experts” over the last couple of years, at least by some, and for good reason.  I am not going to put “experts” in quotes for the rest of this article, but just know that the term is highly subjective.

In 2020, we were told that people like Anthony Fauci was an expert.  We were supposed to listen to the expert scientists and epidemiologists on everything COVID.

One of the big problems is in determining who gets to determine who is an expert and who is not.  Is that supposed to be for other experts to determine?  Then you end up in some kind of a feedback loop.

There were many scientists and epidemiologists who didn’t agree with the establishment narrative on everything COVID.  So the only people who qualified as experts were really the establishment-approved experts.  If you didn’t repeat the official narrative, then you were no longer an expert, regardless of any other qualifications.

This has been eye opening for many.  Some people will never trust the medical establishment again, and rightly so.

Unfortunately, we are faced with a problem that we can’t know everything, and we rely on medical professionals for medical care.

My best advice is to find people that you can trust and to always do your own research.  You can often rely on doctors and other medical professionals for diagnostic purposes, although even here you have to be careful.

If you have a medical problem, you can go to a doctor for advice, but it doesn’t mean you have to take that advice.  You can get blood work done.  You can get x-rays done, or whatever is needed for your particular problem.  You can hopefully get a reliable diagnosis so that you can do your own research and make your own decisions.

The problem of trusting or not trusting the experts goes beyond the medical field.  We have heard that we should trust the experts on climate change, most of whom derive an incentive to repeat the official narrative talking points.

When it comes to the economy, we are supposed to trust the experts to centrally manage a massive economy.  Janet Yellen just admitted she was wrong on inflation being transitory, even though she was previously the chair of the Federal Reserve.  She was apparently caught off guard by the surge in prices even though the Federal Reserve had more than doubled its balance sheet since March 2020.

You Can’t Even Trust Honest Experts

When it comes to politicians, government employees, and those who receive funding directly or indirectly from the government, it is easy to see that their incentives do not typically align with your own incentives.

But even aside from this, it still doesn’t mean you should always follow the advice of experts.  Let’s say that you have actual experts, and they are honest people.  Does that mean you should do as they recommend?

You still shouldn’t follow their every word because of trade-offs in life.  You can use what they say for making a decision, but you still have to make a decision.

Let’s say you bring your car to a mechanic.  The mechanic is highly competent and honest.  He tells you a bunch of things you should have done on your car.  He also tells you that if you want your car to last as long as possible, you should get your oil changed every single month.

But maybe your goal isn’t to have your car last as long as possible.  To go get your oil changed every single month will cost you additional time and money.

There is no way to know this for sure, but let’s say that your mechanic can estimate that if you change your oil every month, then the car should last to 250,000 miles.  If you change your oil once every 4 months, then the car should last to 240,000 miles.

The extra 10,000 miles for the life of your car probably isn’t worth it for the time, money, and hassle of having to take it in every month.  So it is really your decision to make.  Your goal isn’t necessarily to make your car last as long as possible.  Maybe the mechanic thinks that should be the goal, but it isn’t his car.

This can hold true for any number of things in your life.  A dietician can tell you exactly what to eat to live the longest life possible.  Even if the dietician were correct in everything said, it still doesn’t mean you should do exactly what is told.  Maybe you are willing to live a little less long by enjoying some foods that aren’t on your “ideal” diet according to the dietician.

Maybe a lawn expert tells you exactly what fertilizer to use and how much you should water your grass every day.  If you want to win the lawn-of-the-year award, then you should probably do what the lawn expert says.  But maybe your goal isn’t to have the best looking lawn around.  Your goal just may be to have a decent looking lawn without spending too much time and effort on it.

And so it goes for COVID.  Even if the experts had been right that you will have a better chance of not getting COVID if you stay inside your house and mask up when you do have to go out, it still doesn’t mean it makes sense to do this.  There are other medical problems aside from COVID in this world.  There are trade-offs.

And the experts have no way of knowing your priorities and your needs.  Maybe you are willing to increase your chances of dying of COVID by 0.001% by taking your kid to soccer practice, if that were even true.  Only you can make that decision.

So it shouldn’t matter what the so-called experts or health authorities have to say.  You can choose to listen to them or not listen to them in terms of recommendations.  But they should have no power over the decision-making people have.  It is up to each individual or their parent/ guardian to weigh the costs and benefits of any decision.

Only we are the true experts in our own lives.

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