Steve Bannon was just sentenced to 4 months in prison for not appearing before Congress.

In case you didn’t know how the game works, people in Congress can lie all the time.  They can even lie about things that start wars, which end up killing hundreds of thousands of people.  But they don’t get into any legal trouble for this.  They typically don’t even get into any political trouble.

But if you lie before the lying people in Congress, then you may find yourself in jail.  If you don’t show up in front of Congress when the lying criminals want you to, then you may find yourself in jail like Steve Bannon.

There have been a lot of Trump supporters and associates who have found themselves in legal trouble going back to 2016.  This evidently now includes Trump himself since the FBI raided his home.

If you are anti Trump, then you probably think all of these people in legal trouble (some of whom have gone or are going to prison) just shows that Trump is a bad guy.  It is proof to you that nobody is above the law and Trump associates with a bunch of criminals.

Trump has associated with a bunch of criminals, but they don’t seem to be the ones in legal trouble.  John Bolton and Mike Pompeo never found themselves in legal trouble or being investigated, let alone being sent to prison.

We have seen George Papadopoulos, Michael Flynn, Carter Page, Roger Stone, and Steve Bannon, just to name some big ones, who have found themselves against the “Justice” Department and the intelligence agencies.

What is it about these people?  Are they really just bad people?  Are they the criminals?

America First and Anti Establishment

Again, John Bolton and Mike Pompeo have been fine.  The FBI isn’t investigating Nikki Haley as far as we know.  Merrick Garland isn’t raiding the home of Bill Barr.

All of the people getting in trouble are those who go against the establishment.  They also question U.S. foreign policy, much like Trump has done at times despite hiring some war hawks.

So the people being investigated and ending up in jail are the same people who question U.S. interventionism overseas.  That is such a coincidence.

What are the chances that all of the criminals just happen to question overseas wars and interventions?  It’s amazing how it all works out like that.

It’s not that all of these people were as anti war as someone like Ron Paul.  But they definitely questioned U.S. foreign policy.

If Michael Flynn, instead of advocating dialogue and getting along with Russia, had advocated ramping up tensions with Russia, do you think he would have found himself in legal trouble?

So for all of the anti Trump people who just think these people are getting what they deserve, ask yourself why none of the hardcore war hawks find themselves in any legal trouble?  Are Mike Pompeo and John Bolton better people than Michael Flynn and George Papadopoulos?

If you defy the establishment and you challenge the military-industrial complex, the “Justice” Department and the so-called intelligence agencies are making it clear what will happen to you if you have any influence.

There is new legislation that passed in California that will intimidate doctors from speaking out against COVID hysteria and vaccines.

California’s AB2098 states that doctors who are deemed to spread misinformation or disinformation related to COVID-19 are subject to being charged with unprofessional conduct by a review board.  In other words, if a doctor says something that the medical establishment doesn’t like, then the doctor may have his or her license pulled.

My hope is that more people examine what was previously a given.  In this case, why do doctors need a license issued by the state to practice medicine?

In a true free market, the government wouldn’t be licensing such things.  It doesn’t mean that licenses wouldn’t exist.  Maybe Underwriters Laboratories or some other company that specializes in certifications would issue licenses. Customers could go to whomever they wanted, but could shop around based on the level or type of license that a physician possesses.

Since we have long been down the road of government-licensed doctors, it makes it easier for legislation like this horrid bill coming out of California.  It basically prohibits free speech, and it stifles any debate within the medical or scientific community.

Consensus

The bill is written to say that misinformation is when you go against the scientific consensus.  Of course, when they say consensus, they really mean the consensus of the state bureaucrats and those on their payroll.

It is interesting that the bill declares that, “Major news outlets have reported that some of the most dangerous propagators of inaccurate information regarding the COVID-19 vaccines are licensed health care professionals.”  I can’t disagree with that statement at all.  But even taken in the way it is meant, there would be no consensus.

Of course there will be consensus if this legislation is enforced.  How could there not be?  If you stray from the official opinion, then your career will be ruined.  So by definition, the consensus will automatically be whatever the official board determines it to be.

And isn’t this really the problem with the state prohibiting any speech (other than threats of violence)?  You can start with the most absurd example, but if the government doesn’t want you saying it, there is a reason they don’t want you saying it.

When governments try to make it a crime to criticize a war, then you know it is the people who are trying to shut you up who are the criminals.  They are obviously trying to hide something or not wanting another opinion shared to the public.

In the case of vaccines, the people trying to shut you up are the criminals.  They don’t want to engage in debate.  They just want to censor.  All they can do is repeat over and over that the shots are “safe and effective”.  They are drones.

Who gets to decide what is misinformation?  Who checks the checkers?

According to Biden’s press secretary, an extremist is someone who doesn’t go along with the majority.  So I guess if you aren’t with the majority, then you aren’t part of the consensus.  If you aren’t with the consensus, then you are an extremist.

Apparently Karine Jean-Pierre would have been an extremist in 1840, or else she would have been an advocate for slavery.

It’s amazing we have gotten to this point.  The good news is that more people have awakened because of these tactics. The establishment has way overstepped their bounds.

If this California legislation holds, then expect more doctors to leave California.  The people in California will live in a complete echo chamber.  They can go to any doctor and they will be told the same thing.  It won’t just be vaccines.

If millions and millions of Americans die from the COVID vaccines, it won’t matter in California.  They will stick with their consensus of state-funded bureaucrats.  It doesn’t matter what the facts are.  The only thing that matters is what the consensus says.

If you live in California, does this make you want to stay there?  I hope you are healthy and don’t need a doctor for anything important.  You may as well have a robot treating you.  You can just type in your symptoms, and it will spit out the drugs to take.  It will all be approved by “the scientific consensus”.

The CPI numbers came in for September 2022 showing an increase of 0.4%, which was slightly higher than expected.  The year-over-year now stands at 8.2%.

The less volatile median CPI came in at 0.7%.  The year-over-year median CPI just hit a high of 7%.

Stocks originally tanked on the news in the morning, but then quickly recovered and rocketed much higher.  The overall swing was quite dramatic, and it is a little puzzling.

With this CPI reading, it is evident that the Fed will continue to raise its target federal funds rate this year, and the balance sheet will continue its slow decline.

This is in the face of an already somewhat inverted yield curve.

While the 10-year yield is still slightly higher than the 3-month yield, just about everything else has disaster written all over it.

The 6-month yield exceeds the 30-year yield.  So an investor is willing to take a lower yield locked in for 30 years than for 6 months.  This means that bond investors are not expecting price inflation to remain elevated in the long run.  It also means that bond investors are expecting a recession in the near term.

The problem for the Fed is that it can’t worry about a recession too much because it is more worried about the dollar.

We All Eat

Price inflation doesn’t hit everyone equally.  It tends to favor debtors, but only to a point.  It needs to be fixed-rate debt.  It tends to favor those with hard assets.  It tends to hurt those on a fixed income.

It is also complicated because everyone has different expenses.  They buy different things.  One thing that everyone consumes is food.  The price of food continues to go higher.  It is generally outpacing the overall price inflation rate.  It is hurting nearly everyone.

This is why the upcoming election shouldn’t go well for those in power (among other reasons).  The amazing thing is that Congress continues to spend recklessly, perhaps as bad as ever, while the Fed is currently saying “no” to buying government debt.

While the Fed and the politicians in DC do tend to work hand-in-hand, there may be a small element of truth when it comes to the notion of Fed independence.  I don’t think the central bank wants to destroy the dollar.  They don’t want to destroy their own power.

I think the Fed will keep tightening until price inflation really is under control.  There are a few exceptions though.  The only things that could derail the Fed’s tightening are major trouble in the bond market and trouble with major financial institutions.

I think the Fed always stands ready to bail out the major banks and to make sure there is no serious talk of default on U.S. government debt (unless it is defaulting only on Russia).

I keep saying that a major drop in the stock market isn’t going to make the Fed reverse course.  We’ve had major drops before.  The Fed is definitely more concerned about getting price inflation under control than the price of stocks.

The Fed Has Some Control, But There Are Choices

While central planning a major economy doesn’t work for the people it is being planned on, the central bank does have tools to control things.

I recently wrote about Ben Bernanke, and how he correctly stated that the central bank has a digital printing press and is always capable of creating “positive inflation”.  This has been made evident the last couple of years.

The Fed can almost always control things the other way.  Unless total faith in the dollar is lost, the Fed can always bring price inflation down.  The Fed could vote tomorrow to raise its target rate by 300 basis points and to sell off $1 trillion in Treasury bills.

That would bring price inflation down really quick.  It would also crash the stock market and the entire economy.  It would really disrupt the bond market.  So the Fed doesn’t want to do anything that dramatic, but it certainly could if bringing down inflation was the only goal.

The Fed is trying to bring down price inflation in a controlled manner.  That is what we should expect.  But there is no escaping the malinvestment that has occurred over the last 14 years when Ben Bernanke started the Fed on an unprecedented monetary inflation run.

The Fed has choices.  They may not be good choices, but there are choices.  Right now, I think there is more of an emphasis on reducing price inflation.  The Fed members don’t care if the Democrats get wiped out of office.  They might care if it was Trump running for president, but even some establishment people probably prefer the Republicans to take over Congress now.

Again, expect the Fed to keep tightening until price inflation comes down significantly.  They will put up with a declining stock market.  They will put up with a recession.  They just don’t want a completely chaotic bond market, and they don’t want major banks defaulting.  Those are the only two things that will change Fed policy until price inflation comes down.

In the continuation of our bizarro world, Ben Bernanke has been awarded a Nobel Prize in economics.  He is actually sharing it with two other people for their work on bailing out financial institutions and covering up economic problems with more money printing.

Ok, so it isn’t exactly framed that way from the academy that awards the prize.  But that is really the heart of it.

This is on par with Barack Obama winning a Nobel Peace Prize, but at least in that case Obama hadn’t yet done anything.  He proceeded to make war in Libya, Syria, and Yemen.  He helped foment a coup in Ukraine and continue other wars.  But hey, you can’t make peace without breaking a few hundred thousand eggs.

Bernanke is winning this prize with it being well-known what he has already done.  He presided over the financial crisis of 2008, and he brought the most unprecedented monetary inflation in modern U.S. history.

Some people will criticize this award going to Bernanke and pointing out that he was responsible for the 2008 financial crisis.  This isn’t really correct, at least in his role as chairman.  Bernanke, as Fed chair, did start to tighten monetary policy, which then gave us the financial crisis and major recession.  But this was baked into the cake.  It was already set up under the Greenspan Fed.

So it wasn’t really Bernanke as Fed chair that was responsible for the initial problems in 2008 and 2009.  The main problem with Bernanke was the Fed’s response under his “leadership”.

When the financial crisis hit in September 2008, the Fed’s balance sheet was around 900 billion dollars.  It exploded to over $4 trillion by 2014.

Bernanke’s inflation bailed out banks and other financial institutions.  This, after all, is the Fed’s main purpose.  It also enabled the first trillion-dollar annual deficits coming out of Washington DC.  If Congress didn’t have a central bank backing them up, their spending would be far more limited.

Bernanke really set the stage for where we are today with massive bubbles and malinvestment.  This was exaggerated more in 2020 and 2021 with the response to COVID.

Bernanke is part of the problem.  He is certainly not solely responsible for where we are today, but he was a big part of the system that gave us our present situation.

Helicopter Ben

Some may have forgotten – or never knew – that Bernanke was known as Helicopter Ben back in the day, even before becoming Fed chair.  He somewhat famously spoke in 2002 to Milton Friedman on his birthday and apologized on behalf of the Fed for not printing enough money during the Great Depression.  He assured everyone that the Fed would never let that happen again.  He wasn’t lying.

Bernanke spoke again in 2002 on the subject of deflation.

Bernanke correctly observed that the Fed has a digital printing press and that it can create positive inflation at any time by credibly threatening to use it.  Jerome Powell has carried on that legacy and has certainly managed to create price inflation above the Fed’s 2 percent target.

Bernanke talked about a helicopter drop of money, so as to quickly inject money into the system.  It is basically what we saw in 2020 when the government started mailing checks to nearly everyone.

I’m not sure if Bernanke ever told us what to do if we hit high price inflation while the economy is headed into recession and business defaults linger.  Should the Fed focus on fighting inflation (that it created), or should it intervene to prevent bubbles from popping and financial institutions from getting into more trouble?

The Bank of England recently told us which way it will go.  It has already returned to bond buying, as the central bankers tell us that they have to support the pension fund obligations.

The Fed has not reversed course yet, but it also hasn’t been tested yet.  For now, we have tight money.  Interest rates are going up, and the balance sheet is very slowly going down.  But it could change very quickly if there is trouble with major banks or with the bond market.  I don’t think another 20% drop in the stock market is going to change anything for now.

Is it an Honor?

With Bernanke winning the Nobel Prize, I’m not sure if this cheapens it for F.A. Hayek fans.  But the prize was cheapened a long time ago.  You almost have to be a Keynesian nowadays in order to win the prize.

This is why supporters of Ludwig von Mises should never fret over him not winning the Nobel Prize or really getting any major acknowledgements from the powers-that-be.

Mises wasn’t just a great economist in spite of not winning the Nobel Prize.  He didn’t win the Nobel Prize precisely because he was so radically correct in his economic thought.  Hayek was the compromise person.  Hayek was also an exception to the rule, and that happened a long time ago (1974).

Mises was perhaps the greatest economist ever, although there were better writers for the layperson than Mises.  The people awarding these prizes today have probably never read Mises, and they probably wouldn’t understand him.  They only understand state solutions when it comes to economics, which is why Helicopter Ben was one of the chosen ones.

The November elections are about a month away, and I have an inner conflict.  I have a decision to make.  Will I vote for Republicans whom I don’t like?

I live in Florida.  It is the land of the free compared to California or New York.  Florida has a lot of problems, but at least we have a governor who doesn’t seem to actively hate us.

I wonder if libertarians and hardcore conservatives are making a mistake by not lobbying DeSantis more.  I don’t really care about winning a small battle about teaching critical race theory or using gender-neutral pronouns in the schools.  I want the government schools abolished, or at the very least decentralized more.  Can we at least start with less funding for the government schools?

I will write more about this in a future article.  I think liberty lovers may be missing an opportunity on making more permanent changes.  It would require a lobbying effort directed towards DeSantis.

Anyway, I did not vote for DeSantis for governor in 2018.  I saw him as another typical establishment Republican.  And while I don’t completely trust DeSantis now, I will vote for him this November because he was one of the least bad governors when it came to COVID and lockdowns.

I have to remind people that DeSantis did lock down Florida in April 2020.  I was referring to him then as Dictator DeSantis.  I even sent an email to his office saying that nobody should be acting as a dictator as I adamantly opposed the lockdowns.

To DeSantis’s credit, he loosened things up in May 2020 and completely opened up Florida in September 2020 when almost every other state still had significant restrictions.  Counties in Florida could still impose mask mandates, but there were no statewide mandates at that point.

I still have no idea if DeSantis did it because he’s brilliant, or courageous, or principled, or politically savvy, or maybe all of the above.  If it was a completely political decision, he read the tea leaves better than the governor of Texas who waited until 2021 to open up Texas.  He only did it after he saw how popular DeSantis had become.

The Lesser of Two Evils

I have heard the term “lesser of two evils” for a long time because I was involved in the Libertarian Party a long time ago.  Many people then, and some still today, say you shouldn’t vote for the lesser of two evils.  But isn’t it really just a degree of evil?  I don’t 100% agree with most Libertarians running for office, so that would preclude me from voting for them as well.

I don’t consider it immoral or stupid to vote.  It doesn’t mean I fully endorse the system.

My rule for a long time is that I will vote for the lesser of two evils, but there has to be a substantial difference between the evils.  I’m not going to vote for one candidate over another just because they think the marginal tax rate should be 35% instead of 39%.  It’s not that I wouldn’t favor a lower marginal tax rate, but I just don’t trust anyone who can’t be any bolder than that.

It’s sad to think about what has happened since March 2020.  Most liberty lovers would rejoice at going back to 2019, even though we were far from free at that time.

It’s still amazing to think that most of the world shut down because of virus hysteria, while the so-called experts were saying and doing things that brought us greater death and destruction.

DeSantis is no libertarian.  I don’t even know if his actions in 2020 were purely political.  But I want to reward him for being more right than others and more courageous than others.  Also, if we hit another virus situation or something similar, I don’t want to be in lockdown like in California and New York.

Now I have an issue with Congress and whether to vote.

I don’t usually vote for anyone.  My “representatives” in Congress are all Republicans, but they don’t represent me very well.  They send my money to Ukraine and other wars.  They waste my money on the welfare/ warfare state, and they continue to fund all of the bad agencies, and this particularly goes for the so-called intelligence agencies.

At the same time, Biden and the Democrats have done great damage to our country.  He and his handlers are far worse than I ever could have imagined.  I don’t know of one single Democrat in Washington DC who opposed the unlawful and immoral vaccine mandates.  I don’t know of one Democrat in DC who opposed funding Ukraine.

I don’t like Marco Rubio.  He is part of the establishment.  He may have been decent when he was in the Florida legislature before he went national.  He is sometimes ok on economics.  But overall, he isn’t good.  He certainly doesn’t oppose the deep state.

But the thought of having the Democrats maintain control of Congress for another two years really puts me at unease.  They are bad on almost every single issue these days.  And if anything, the Republicans have been better (or less bad) when it comes to issues of war and peace.

If the Republicans gain a majority in Congress, I fully expect most things to stay bad.  But at least it may put a halt to the absolute worst things.  Maybe there will be a little bit of accountability for the White House instead of Biden and company just continually trying to upend Western Civilization.

The FBI and the Department of Justice (Injustice) are just blatantly going after those who oppose their agenda.  They are terrorizing pro-life activists.  They are terrorizing Trump supporters.

Biden continues to impose vaccine mandates on many workers, as well as prohibiting people from entering the country.  This has to be stopped.  I don’t just want these things overturned.  I want hearings that expose the criminality of putting out these jabs and the mandates.

I don’t just want people saying, “The pandemic is over, so we don’t need mandates any more.”  I want people saying, “I think these criminals were trying to kill us with their deadly jabs.”

Even if Fauci and company don’t end up in handcuffs, I want them to feel the heat.  I want him called in front of Congress and grilled.

I don’t expect much from most Republicans in Congress, but at least there is an outside chance of a little bit of accountability if the Republicans have the majority.  If the Democrats stay in the majority, there will be no accountability, and things could even get worse, if that is possible.

So I may hold my nose and vote for Marco Rubio.  If he is way up in the polls, maybe I don’t need to.  I don’t want to feel like I have to take a shower after going to the voting booth.  I also don’t want to deal with these psychopaths in power in Washington DC.  They are trying to destroy our civilization, and a strong message must be sent in November.

There is bad economic news coming out of Europe.  We hear that major banks are in trouble there.  And just recently, the Bank of England changed course to support its bond market because of the risk of pension funds not being able to meet their obligations.

On Monday, October 3, 2022, the American markets soared higher.  Stocks were up big.  Gold was up.  Bonds were up as long-term yields fell.  Didn’t investors get the message about what is happening in Europe?

In our upside down world where bad news is good news, I think investors did hear the message.

There was also a closed meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve.  What is this all about?  I don’t think it was to discuss the weather or the inequity of Federal Reserve inflation.

The official agenda says under matters to be considered: “Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by the Federal Reserve Banks.”

The closed meeting was likely to discuss the economic turmoil in the world and how to prevent it from happening in the United States, or at least to not make it as severe.

The Fed has recently pledged to make fighting inflation its number one goal, even though it was the Federal Reserve that gave us inflation in the first place.

If you look at the yields on government debt, it doesn’t look good.  This is while the Fed has pledged to continue to drain its balance sheet (even if slowly) and to hike its target of the federal funds rate.

The 10-year yield is highly inverted against the 2-year yield, and it has been this way for months.  Meanwhile, the 3-month yield is not far away from the 10-year yield at this point.

Maybe the big up day on Monday was just investors reacting to what they see as stocks being oversold.  Maybe everything will reverse course the following day.

Still, I can’t help but think that some investors are counting on the Fed to step in and pivot as soon as economic conditions get bad.  A 20% drop in stocks won’t cause a reversal, but maybe a 50% drop will.  If any major financial institutions get in trouble, it is pretty obvious based on history that the Fed is not going to allow them to fail.

So maybe it won’t happen as fast as the Bank of England, but I think a pivot will be coming.  It’s just a matter of how long they will wait.

The stock market is down the list of concerns for Fed officials.  They aren’t going to reverse course just because some people took a 20% hit on their 401k.  They are more worried about the bond market and the solvency of financial institutions.

Still, if stocks go down 50% or more, that may be enough to start a pivot.  They may not immediately go back in full inflation mode, but they may stop hiking rates and draining the balance sheet.

The reason is because a dramatically falling stock market is indicative of worse things to come.

I will not forget what was done to us starting in March 2020.  The lies actually started before March 2020 about COVID, including its origins and its deadliness.  And there have been almost no consequences for those who sold the lies.

Some will say that we should just move on since society is back to normal.  There are two major problems with that.

First, not everyone has moved on.  The illustrious president just recently was talking about hurricane preparedness and said that everyone should get vaccinated.  You know…because when your house is about to be destroyed by a hurricane, you should really be thinking about getting a needle in the arm.

Also, if we have moved on, then why are some people still wearing masks?  And why is Brandon still imposing vaccine mandates on many federal workers and still requiring proof of vaccine to enter the country for non-Americans/ non-American residents?

Aside from the fact that not everyone has moved on and has not discovered the truth, there is a second reason to not just forget about what we’ve been through.  Since nobody was held to account for the lies, the lockdowns, the mandates, etc., it could easily happen again with something else.

Remember the Great Barrington Declaration?

In 2020, the Great Barrington Declaration was released, and it was quickly criticized by the ruling elite and their shills in the media.  The doctors who came up with the Great Barrington Declaration basically just said that society should not be locked down, and that there should be focused protection of those who are most vulnerable to COVID.

It was obvious very early on to anyone paying attention that COVID was a disease that mostly impacted older people and people who already are in ill health.

Sure, you can tell me about a friend of a friend who was only 55 years old and died of COVID, or maybe you heard about someone in their 40s who succumbed to the virus.  But even the anecdotal evidence is not reliable because so many people were mistreated with remdesivir and ventilators.

The fact still remains that in 2020, the average age of death from COVID (or with COVID) was around or slightly above the average life expectancy.

The Great Barrington Declaration was saying that we should focus on protecting these people who are actually vulnerable to the virus.  Everyone else should go about their lives.

I would say that is where we are at now, but I would say we have moved beyond that.  I don’t know any elderly people who are staying under voluntary lockdown so as not to get the virus.  If they are healthy enough, most older people are going out to eat and seeing friends.

The Great Barrington Declaration was really not that bold.  It was saying that kids should go to school and not miss soccer practice.  It was saying that most working Americans should be going to work.  Yet, this was considered too radical by the COVID hysterics in 2020 and into 2021.

My only problem with the Great Barrington Declaration was that it wasn’t bold enough.  If anything, it was ceding too much ground to the COVID hysterics.

But the people who supported lockdowns – whether through naivety or cowardice or evil – said that the Great Barrington Declaration was irresponsible if they ever addressed it at all.

The ruling elite and the loudmouths in the media started calling it the “let ‘er rip” strategy.  This was their way of being a demagogue.  They insinuated that the supporters or the Great Barrington Declaration or those who don’t favor lockdowns are just trying to throw grandma in front of a bus.  They were accusing us of not caring about people and wanting to see mass death.  Thanks for the kind interpretation of our position.

Most of us who opposed lockdowns actually cared about individual liberty and the right to make our own decisions.  And that includes caring about people who need to go to work and support a family instead of being locked inside for of a virus that probably won’t impact them.

We also understood that there is no such thing as perfect safety in our world and that we always have to make trade-offs.  You may die in a car accident driving your kid to soccer practice, yet you do it anyway.  You are always taking risks, yet you don’t just sit and hide in your house every day.  In fact, doing that is a bigger risk if you do it day after day.

The lockdowners never considered the mental health of children.  They never considered the need for elderly people to have loved ones by their side.  They never considered the major economic impacts which we continue to suffer from today.  They never considered the long-term damage done to people by feeding them fear and hysteria.

Not one child should have missed baseball practice or a dance recital or piano lessons or anything else because of COVID hysteria.  It was just that – hysteria.  It was irrational, and it was evil what was done to us.

Even though COVID is still around and a little bit of COVID hysteria is still around, most people are going about their lives.  This is what should have been done in March 2020.

I’m glad most people have moved on and that they are recognizing that they have to live their lives without perfect safety.

I am not moving on in the sense that the evil tyrants who imposed death and destruction on our society are still in positions of power.  We must never forget the evil that was done to our society.

For some reason, the Federal Reserve’s goal over the last many years has been to “achieve” 2% inflation.  When they talk about inflation, they are obviously not talking about the supply of money, which has greatly exceeded 2%.  They are talking about price inflation.

I don’t think the Fed needs to target 2% inflation at all.  Why not zero percent inflation?  Or since we’re going down that road, why do we need a central bank at all?

But for this piece, let’s just go with the 2% price inflation target.  It is quite obvious that the Fed has shot way past that target, with current CPI numbers coming in above 8% annual for several months now.

But let’s remember back in early 2021, the Fed changed its goal.  In the FOMC monetary policy statement of January 27, 2021, it states:

“With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent.”

Aside from seeing just how wrong the Fed was in worrying about inflation being too low, it is interesting that we now don’t hear much about this relatively recent goal of achieving an average of 2 percent over time.

Jerome Powell never really said what he meant by “over time”.  Was this supposed to be a 2 percent average over the course of a year, over 5 years, or what?

Now that price inflation has exceeded 8% on an annual basis for several months, what will the Fed have to do to average 2% “over time”?

I mean, correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe this means we have to go way below 2 percent at some point to get an average of 2 percent.  Is this still the policy of the Fed?  Have they quietly dropped this goal that started a mere 20 months ago?

If the Fed wants an average of 2 percent, then the Fed should really be pushing for price deflation at this point.  We need to see falling prices.  If there is a 2 percent average target for the last 2 years, then we need some serious price deflation, which I have never known of a central bank anywhere to advocate.

Just like the government does with COVID, wars, Russia hoaxes, and everything else, the central bank just drops this one down the memory hole.  “Let’s just not mention it anymore and hope that nobody notices.  Our friends in the media surely won’t say anything about it.”

This just shows that they make their policies however they want to make them.  If they want to inflate more to cover the massive spending from Congress, then they’ll do it.  If they want to bail out banks, then they’ll do it.  If they want to blow up some financial bubbles, they’ll do it.  They can always find the justification somewhere.

Now that there is high price inflation, the Fed is spooked that they will lose control of the dollar.  So now they are tightening.  They aren’t going to advocate for outright consumer price deflation because that isn’t what central banks do.  So Fed officials can just ignore what they previously said and find other justifications.

This is how the game works.  Unfortunately, it doesn’t work very well for us.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released its latest monetary policy statement.  As expected, the federal funds rate was hiked by 75 basis points.  It is now in a target range of 3 to 3.25 percent.

Although stocks were higher in the morning, they quickly came down with the announcement and the expectations of higher rates and higher unemployment next year.  Stocks were volatile, but ended up down significantly for the day as a whole.

Surprisingly, gold actually finished slightly higher on the day, and this came in the face of a stronger dollar.  The euro is now trading at less than 99 cents to the dollar.

But the real story is the bond market and the yields.  The 2-year yield closed above the 4% mark for the first time since 2007.  And we know how 2008 turned out.

The 10-year yield is still slightly higher than the 3-month yield, so there isn’t a full inversion of the yield curve.  But the 2-year yield has been trading significantly higher than the 10-year yield for a couple of months now, and it was exaggerated more after the FOMC statement.

This tells us that there is going to be a recession ahead.  And even though Jerome Powell won’t directly answer the questions on a recession being baked into the cake, he is admitting that everyone should expect a significant slowdown, which is the most a Fed chair will ever admit about the future.

In his press conference, Powell gave a hypothetical example of a family that has most of its budget going towards food, gas, and clothes, and he acknowledged in his own way that they are hurting.  This was a little bit surprising, but I think he’s trying to justify the Fed’s actions that risk a recession.

He also said something about unemployment needing to go higher to control price inflation.  This is only correct in the sense that the Fed blew up the bubble that we have now.

To be sure, the only reason we are in this situation is because of the Federal Reserve’s prior monetary policy of low interest rates and massive monetary inflation.  Now the Fed is essentially forced to reverse course to fight the price inflation that it created.  As resources are reallocated, it will likely cause a rise in unemployment.

It is a mistake of “economists” who believe that there is some kind of trade-off between inflation and unemployment.  If you don’t tamper with the money and interest rates in the first place, then the misallocations won’t occur.  You can have an environment of low or no price inflation (or even deflation), coupled with low unemployment rates.

When the central bank is active, you can get a situation where you have high price inflation and relatively high unemployment rates.  They see this trade-off now only because of what the Fed has already done.

Buckle Up for a Wild Ride

The upcoming recession could be one for the record books.  Just look at the situation that the Fed is in now.

The yield curve is largely inverted, and it may still get worse.  Interest rates are several points behind the official price inflation rate.  The Fed is hiking its target rate and plans to continue to do so at its next couple of meetings, while the balance sheet is also slowly going down.

The Fed is aggressively hiking rates when the yield curve is already largely inverted.  And it can’t stop hiking without risking massive price inflation that is higher than what we have now.

How will the Fed fight the next recession?  Will it continue to drain its balance sheet and hike its target federal funds rate?

The mother of all bubbles is going to pop like nobody has seen before.  Housing and stocks have both been going down, but this is only the beginning.  We aren’t in the midst of the financial crisis yet.  This is only the first or second inning of a 9-inning game.

Nothing is safe right now.  My best advice is to use common sense and diversify.  You don’t want to be in debt outside of a manageable mortgage.  You don’t want to be heavy in stocks.  You won’t want to be in any of these highly speculative gambles like crypto.

The only hope out of this economic disaster is that more and more people will wake up to the fact that the ruling elite do not have their best interests at heart.  There needs to be a major shift in public opinion where the people stop allowing others to have all of this power.

On CBS’s 60 Minutes, Joe Biden was asked if the pandemic is over.  He replied that it is over and then gave some qualifications after that.

Biden commented that you can see all of the people around not wearing masks.  But the whole reason that masks became a big thing in 2020 is because of government officials and COVID hysterics pushing them.

Masks were a placebo so that some people could feel safer while somewhat continuing to go about their lives.  They were an excuse to “safely” go to the grocery store and eventually do other activities that are of less necessity, like going out to eat and shopping for clothes.

Masks also served a purpose for the ruling elite of making it feel like a pandemic.  When you go to the grocery store and nearly everyone is wearing a mask, you feel like you are in a hospital.  It really does it make it feel like the plague for some people.

I don’t refer to what has happened since March 2020 as a pandemic.  I just try to not use the word unless I am using it in quotes or if I am referring to it in the context of what other people are saying.  I actually cringe when I hear people who are generally on my side (pro liberty) refer to it as “the pandemic”.  I think it only serves to legitimize the reactions to COVID.

I am sensitive to those who have lost people supposedly due to COVID.  I say “supposedly” because the tests are inaccurate and most people supposedly dying of COVID had other major ailments.  In addition, hospital staff mistreated people testing positive for COVID on many occasions.  It wasn’t just negligence either.  It was giving them remdesivir and throwing them on ventilators.

If the government had just treated it like a bad flu season, I’m not sure how much damage would have occurred.  Without hysteria and lockdowns, I think there would have been fewer deaths, and many of the people who supposedly died of COVID were probably going to die soon anyway.  I admit there may be exceptions.

But according to Biden, the pandemic is over now.  Maybe it is because there is an election coming up and he is way down in the polls.  But if the pandemic is over according to Biden, what about all of the mandates and emergency powers still in place?

Repeal the Emergency Powers

While I don’t think 60 Minutes is the worst show in terms of propaganda (they actually have some interesting things at times), it would have been nice for the interviewer to point out that emergency powers are still in place and there are still people getting fired to this day for not being “vaccinated” against COVID.

The U.S. Open tennis tournament was just held in New York, and the best tennis player in the world was unable to play because he was not allowed to enter the country.  If you are not a U.S. national or resident, you are not allowed to enter the country without being “vaccinated”, unless you want to walk across the Mexican border.

So there may have been people playing in the U.S. Open who weren’t vaccinated if they lived in the United States.  There were certainly many people in attendance who were not vaccinated.  Yet, Novak Djokovic was not allowed to enter the country to play.

Many military members and other government workers are still required to get vaccinated.  Many universities are still requiring it, even if it isn’t coming as direct orders from the federal government.

The vaccine mandates are immoral and unlawful.  They also make no logical sense.  Unless you are living in a cave, you can see with your own eyes that people who are “vaccinated” are still testing positive for COVID.  They may be getting it at an even higher rate than those who did not get jabbed.

Biden’s whole scheme to “forgive” $10,000 in student loan debt per borrower was predicated on emergency COVID powers.  That is how he is attempting to get around the law and the Constitution.  But if there is no pandemic any more, why does he still have emergency powers?  Again, nobody asks him this.  And anyone who would ask him this is forbidden from asking him any questions.

There has been great damage done over the last 2 and a half years.  We will be paying for it for a long time.  We are really paying for it now with the economic mess that was exacerbated by lockdowns and more digital money printing.

The vaccine mandates that were attempted are probably the biggest infringement on liberty, domestically speaking, in at least a generation.  I think you would have to go back to the draft during the Vietnam War to have something as bad and widespread as the vaccine mandates.

I am no fan of most Republicans in Washington DC, but remember that no Democrats in DC opposed the vaccine mandates.  They are all tyrants.  We must never forget the great damage done by their authoritarian policies.  Now it is election time, so they can just declare the “pandemic” as over.  They will try to resurrect it or come up with something new when the time is right.