When Joe Biden gave his dark and cryptic speech attacking “MAGA Republicans”, he used the word extremism as one of his attacks.  When he is trying to associate people with unlawfulness and violence, then calling them extremist obviously has a very negative connotation.

Even here, it is important to be clear that not all extremism is necessarily bad.  If the law is highly immoral, then being unlawful and extremist about it may not be a bad thing.

Think about Nazi Germany.  You could argue about whether rounding up Jews was technically lawful, but it was lawful in the eyes of the Nazi rulers.  The Enabling Act supposedly allowed a lot of things to be lawful that were otherwise immoral.  So a Nazi soldier who defied orders may have been doing something unlawful.  A Jew who refused to be taken away may have been doing something unlawful.  And they could both be considered extremists.  They were extremists in their view that it was wrong to kidnap people.

What about violence?  If it is purely defensive violence, then it is not necessarily bad.  If someone sticks a gun at your head and you react with counter violence, most people do not consider that to be immoral or wrong.  If a Jew was about to be shot in a concentration camp and managed to take the gun away and shoot the person who was about to shoot him, there doesn’t seem to be anything morally wrong with this unless you are a pure pacifist.  And again, the Jew could be considered an extremist for defending his own life.

We are all extremists when it comes to certain things.  I am an extremist when it comes to defending my family from harm.  I am an extremist for wanting world peace.

When the White House press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, was asked how the White House defines an extremist, she responded that it is someone who acts outside of the majority.

This makes everyone an extremist on many things.  If you like to play chess or if you like to study Shakespeare, then you are an extremist according to this definition.

It’s too bad that there weren’t better and honest reporters at these White House press briefings, but I suppose they wouldn’t be allowed in if that were the case.

There was an obvious follow-up question to Jean-Pierre’s definition of an extremist.

“So, Miss Jean-Pierre, if you lived in the 1840s when a minority of people held the position that all slavery should be abolished, would you have considered yourself an extremist?”

Either she is an extremist for wanting slavery abolished, or else she favors slavery.  Or maybe the only standard to go by is what the majority thinks based on this exact time in 2022.

In 2021, it was apparently extremist to believe that the so-called COVID vaccines didn’t stop the infection or transmission of COVID.  In 2022, that is no longer considered extremist.

So just as the science evolves, so does the term extremist.  If a poll shifts from 51% to 49%, I guess it all of a sudden becomes extremist according to the Biden White House.

This is illustrative of the intellect coming out of the White House.  It is also illustrative of the hostility coming at anyone who defies the authoritarian dictates of team Biden.

This is how they are defining domestic extremism.  If you don’t want your little kid to be taught critical race theory at school, then you are a domestic extremist.  If you don’t want to get a jab in your arm, then you are a domestic extremist. If you don’t want your money going to Ukraine, you are a domestic extremist.

This is the playbook for the 2022 elections and probably the 2024 elections.  It is only serving to radicalize the hate that each side has for each other.  But this is what happens when large groups of people attempt to use government force to impose their will on others.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers came in at 8:30 AM on Tuesday morning, September 13, 2022.  The CPI for August came in at 0.1%.  It was expected to be negative 0.1%, largely due to the decrease in gas prices.

The year-over-year price inflation stands at 8.3%.  The less volatile median CPI was up 0.7% for the month, and it hit an annual rate of 6.7%.  This is the highest the median CPI has been this year and for a long time.

The slightly higher than expected number instantly drove markets down.  It is now almost a sure thing that the FOMC will hike its target rate by another 75 basis points at the next meeting, which is in just over a week.

Unless you were short the markets or in cash, investors took a major loss today.  Stocks were down big, as the Dow lost more than 1,200 points.  Gold was down.  Cryptocurrencies were down.  Yields went higher, pushing bond prices down.

So even if you follow my recommendation of a permanent portfolio, you took a loss today.

The Fed is now in a bigger pickle than it was before.  They are almost forced to continue to raise the target rate.  This is in the face of a yield curve that is already inverted in some spots.

The 2-year yield, which has been higher than the 10-year yield for a while now, went up even higher.  Most yields went higher, but this should ensure a full inversion.  The 3-month yield will soon invert against the 10-year yield.

Mortgage rates have hit new highs for the year, which should help deflate the massive housing bubble.  Since houses are far less liquid than stocks, it might take a few months before we really start seeing the air come out of the bubble.

If gas prices hadn’t come down in August, the inflation numbers would have been much worse.  Americans are paying more and more for groceries, as food prices continue to rise at a double-digit annual pace.

This is what middle class America faces in 2022.  Prices for most necessities continue to rise, while asset prices deflate. It is a tough combination for anyone, especially with wages lagging far behind price inflation.  It will be especially bad for those who are in substantial debt.

And I know that the situation is far worse in much of Europe, where people are wondering if they will be able to afford to heat their homes this winter.

Everything points to a massive recession ahead.  It will likely be in 2023.

We have falling gold prices despite price inflation above 8%.  We have housing prices that have peaked.  We have a somewhat inverted yield curve.  And on top of all of this, we have a Federal Reserve that is forced to drain its balance sheet and raise its target interest rate.

You don’t have to be an expert in Austrian school economics to understand that the economy is in major trouble.

There is no guarantee we will get a recession this year or next.  But as I write this in September 2022, the Treasury yields are indicating a recession ahead.

The 2-year yield has been higher than the 10-year yield for quite a while.  The 3-month yield is close to inverting against the 10-year yield, and it may happen later this month after the FOMC meets and hikes its target rate again.

The first and second quarter GDP came in negative.  Many define this as a recession.  It is a matter of definitions.  If it is or was a recession, it is mild, especially compared to what is to come.

In a true hard recession, there would be a huge fall in demand for luxury items.  In a hard recession, your next-door neighbor won’t be putting in a swimming pool in the backyard.  Your friends won’t be going to expensive restaurants and bars on the weekend, unless they are single and make good money.

There is still too much mania for it to feel like a recession.  There is also a low unemployment rate.  Even though wages aren’t keeping up with inflation, which is a major problem, at least most people who want a job have a job.

Annual price inflation is still above 8% according to the government’s own statistics.  That means, at this rate, prices will double in less than 10 years.  So it seems like most everything is just getting more expensive.  I can certainly vouch for that at the grocery store.

If we hit a hard recession, which I think is likely in the next year, then demand will fall for certain things.  This may not be the case for food.  Necessities will still be in high demand.  After all, they are necessities.

Perhaps the price of an expensive steak will go down while ground beef does not.  It’s hard to say how things will go.

But what about big purchases?  What will happen to prices, and does it make sense to wait?

I think it is going to depend on how much of a need it is versus how much of a want it is.  If it is a want (more of a luxury thing), then it is more likely to fall in price.

For example, if you are doing well and you really want to put in a swimming pool in your backyard, it actually makes sense to wait until we have a good hard recession.  It’s hard to say if the raw material prices will go down, but it is a decent bet that labor costs will go down and demand for pools will soften.

If you are going to need a new roof on your house or a new air conditioning unit, it is much harder to say.  In a deep recession, most people are still going to find a way to get a new air conditioner, especially if they live in a warm climate.  These are close to being necessities, and people can’t necessarily completely plan on replacing them until they need to be replaced.

Generally, if you know you will need a new roof or a new air conditioning unit soon, then you should shop around.  You may not be able to wait for a recession, and there is far from any guarantee that prices will go down.

The same goes for automobiles.  Prices may come down in a recession, but it is far from a guarantee.

Here are the two things I am convinced you should wait on buying until there is a hard recession – stocks and houses.

I believe stocks and residential real estate have been in a massive bubble.  As the Fed raises its target rate and slowly deflates its balance sheet, these bubbles are going to deflate along with it.  If you are currently renting and want to buy a house, I think it is a good bet to wait.

And as stated above, it will generally make sense to wait on purchasing more luxury items.  If you want to remodel your kitchen, why are you going to do it during a mania when there is high demand?  If we are in the midst of a hard recession and you are still doing financially well, then this is the time to do it.  Businesses that remodel kitchens will probably be offering discounts.

So if it is a necessity, you probably don’t want to wait.  But if you have time to shop around, then take your time to do so.

If it is a cosmetic item to make your house look nicer or be more enjoyable, and if it is a big purchase, then it is probably better to wait.  You can wait to make sure that you are still doing well in a recession, and you can wait for discounts when suppliers of these services are desperate for business.

Even though the CDC has changed its guidelines to not discriminate against those who have not been “vaccinated” for COVID, it hasn’t changed policies from the White House.

There are still mandates for the military and many other sectors of government.  They are still pursuing a mandate for federal contractors, even though it was on pause for nearly a year.

Many people have quit jobs because of these mandates.  Some people got the jab or jabs, even though they didn’t want them.  Some have managed to delay things but still face the prospect of being fired.

With the not safe and not effective vaccines, it is unbelievable that this is still happening.  It is quite obvious to anyone awake in this world that the COVID vaccines do not actually prevent infection or transmission.  So what would be the point of a mandate?

Why would you mandate something for someone’s own good?  Do you have to promise to not eat sugar to maintain a job?  And for all of the people who just get fired, then they still haven’t been vaccinated and are now unemployed.  How does that help anyone?

Well, it helps those in power.  It helps the pharmaceutical companies make a few extra bucks.

It also helps the power elite by having a higher percentage of obedient people working for government.

This is also the case with the “woke” agenda.  Government agencies and companies doing work for the federal government are compelled to put on diversity seminars and to train their employees to use gender-neutral pronouns (as one example).  It has become a nationwide culture thing, but you can typically find that government incentives are behind it.

Most people are able to put up with it.  They know to shut up about it and just go along.  But it gets so ridiculous in some places that it drives people away, at least on the margin.  Again, it tends to get rid of people who are less obedient.

A Government of Sheep

In spite of what libertarians and others might think, not everybody who does work for the government is an obedient sheep.  There is a reason that Ron Paul received the largest percentage of military donations in the 2007/ 2008 Republican primaries.

There are libertarian leaning people in just about every government agency and government contractor.  Beyond this, there are many people who will say that government is bureaucratic and inefficient.  They should know because they see it all the time at their own workplace.

But I have to give credit to the power elite on this one.  They are evil and smart at times.  They are making things as uncomfortable as possible for those who question authority to be working in any capacity for the government.

If you get everyone vaccinated (obedience) and everyone reciting the latest woke message like they mean it (obedience), then you can keep counting on these people to be obedient with everything else.  You don’t ever have to worry about them disobeying an order just because it is unlawful or immoral.

This is what the evil people at the top want.  They want obedient citizens.  This is why Joe Biden is attacking MAGA Republicans.  Despite any faults, they tend not to be obedient, especially when it comes to the dictates of Biden.

If everyone inside of government is obedient, it doesn’t mean all is lost.  They are still outnumbered quite a bit.  It is a bit more concerning when it comes to the police and the military, as they are the ones with the most powerful weapons.

Even with that, the power elite rely on the consent of those they rule over.  Without that consent, their power evaporates.

This is why it is important to not give your consent, especially to unlawful and immoral edicts.  I am not telling you to do anything that will put you or your family in harms way.  You should remain peaceful, and you should make calculated decisions.  I can’t tell anyone that they should not get jabbed to keep their job because every person is in a different situation.

It is important to recognize the tactics that are being used by the ruling elite.  We need as many people as possible to speak out and against these criminals for the chaos they are creating in our society.

In a dark setting on a Thursday night in primetime, Joe Biden delivered a speech declaring his war against MAGA Republicans with the military as a background.

Biden said that MAGA Republicans are extremists who want to destroy democracy and the rule of law and promote authoritarianism.  He even slipped in a reference to white supremacists.  He said that MAGA Republicans don’t respect our Constitution.

This is rather rich coming from a guy who just declared that taxpayers will fork over money to pay $10,000 for most people with student loan debt.  (Where is the legislation from Congress?)  It is the same guy who last year told about 100 million Americans that they had to get jabbed if they wanted to keep their job and feed their family.

Joe Biden is not just demented.  He is evil.  The people he surrounds himself with are evil.  Almost every single thing he does is bad.

In terms of policy, the only decent thing Biden did was withdraw from Afghanistan.  Even there, he managed to bungle it.

What Biden said about the “MAGA Republicans” is more straightforward than we often see.  The establishment media goes after Trump constantly.  But let’s face it; all along, they are really going after the Trump supporters.  Or maybe more accurately, they are going after those who disobey the commands of the official narrative.

Hillary Clinton let the same thing slip back in 2016 when she referred to half of Trump supporters as a basket of deplorables.  This was Joe Biden’s deplorables moment that went on for 25 minutes.

Biden likes to talk about how he has worked with “mainstream Republicans” to get things done.  He means Republican politicians who are willing to support war and massive spending.  That is the bipartisan way in Washington DC.

I do not consider myself a MAGA Republican.  I am not even a Republican, and there are many things I don’t like about Trump.  Yet, I feel this speech was directed at me and others like me.

Joe Biden is really calling out anyone who would dare chant, “Let’s go Brandon.”  He is calling out anyone who doesn’t obey his edicts.  This is his definition of unity.  It’s like a mob boss.  Just do as I say, and you won’t have a problem.  Just follow my orders and we’ll get along just fine.

This was a speech where the only theme was to attack his main political opponent and those who support his political opponent.  It sounded something like a declaration of a civil war.

If Trump manages to escape the claws of the deep state and runs for president in 2024, I probably won’t vote for him.  Then again, after hearing Biden’s speech, it is tempting.  Biden is a truly disgusting individual who has done great harm to the country.  I couldn’t imagine how destructive he will be if he somehow gets another 4 years.  It hasn’t even been 2 years yet, and he has caused nothing but chaos.

Other presidents have caused great harm with regard to foreign policy, but there have been no recent presidents who have so greatly aggressed against the American people as Biden has done.  You can’t picture Bill Clinton ever giving a speech like Biden just did.  He would at least put on an act and tell people what he thinks they want to hear.

The only hope is that Biden is so bad that the divisiveness ends up resulting in some kind of peaceful split.  There is more hope for some kind of decentralization or secession than there has been in a long time.

About half the country hates Trump, and about half the country hates Biden.  I know there are a lot of nuances in there, but it is generally the case.  I don’t love Trump, but I hate Biden.  At least Trump acts like he can stand the sight of me.  At least he acts like he cares about people.

Biden just attacked MAGA Republicans.  Last year, he attacked the “unvaccinated” saying that his patience was wearing thin.

Trump is brash and abrasive, but think about all of the people he has attacked.  He goes after other politicians and the media.  He will also attack other high-profile people who attack him.  That is mostly it.  Maybe I’m wrong on this, but I don’t ever remember Trump attacking the general population who support his opponent.  I don’t remember him demonizing people in general who supported Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden.

I believe libertarians should reach out to the so-called MAGA Republicans because they are ripe to hear a message of liberty.  They are already part of the way there.  The Republican Party has become a lot less hawkish on war.  They don’t trust the corporate media or the establishment in general.  Now they don’t even trust the FBI.

This is why Biden and the establishment are attacking MAGA Republicans.  It is because they won’t play the game they are told to play.  It is because they represent a threat to the power elite for not obeying orders.

The media never hated Trump because of his brashness and mean tweets except in so far as it exposed them.  They hated Trump because of what he represented, which was a voice for Americans who hated the establishment.  If they successfully take down Trump and someone like DeSantis steps in as the leader, then they will be just as ruthless against DeSantis.

The establishment is very powerful, but it has also been wounded.  The power elite are striking back hard.  The best thing you can do is to deny them your consent.  They may be overplaying their hand.  The next few years will be critical for advancing long-term liberty.  We must recognize that these people are not stupid or misguided.  They are pure evil.

Let’s go Brandon!

It’s amazing how the narrative shifts.  Or maybe I should say, how the science evolves.

This article from Politico is a trip into bizarro world, where the political left is now trying to blame Donald Trump for pressuring the FDA to authorize the COVID vaccines on an accelerated timeline.

Should we laugh or cry at this news?

Perhaps this is a test to see if anything here sticks.  It’s like when politicians want to enact some draconian edict, so they push out a few rumors to see what kind of reaction they get.  This tells them whether they are pushing too hard and too fast.

I think a slim majority of Americans see the COVID vaccines as mostly a disaster.  They fully understand just by being awake in their lives that these “vaccines” do not stop infection or transmission of the thing they are supposed to prevent.  The best that can be said now is that they lessen the illness if you do get COVID, but that is highly disputable at this point too.

At this point, these are still the original vaccines that were supposedly designed to stop the original COVID.  They are completely worthless at best at this point, and they are harmful to some.  Of course, they are not worthless to those who are profiting and gaining power from their widespread use.

While a majority of Americans see that they aren’t effective, there is a small but significant percentage who are realizing that they aren’t safe either.  Most people seem to know someone who had a significant adverse reaction to the jab.  The question is whether they actually noticed or acknowledged that it coincided with the jab.

When talking about investments and speculations like Bitcoin, there are HODLers.  They HODL (hold on for dear life).  The same goes for the COVID jabs, except this is more of a religion than an attempt to make money.  No matter how much evidence is before their eyes, they continue to repeat the official narrative that they are safe and effective.

Now that the political left is trying to push a narrative that Trump rushed the vaccines, we have to wonder if they are going to try to blame Trump for what is to come.  Are they worried about more and more people coming to the conclusion that these so-called vaccines are a complete disaster?  Or are they just accusing Trump of anything that could possibly stick, as they have done for the last 7 years?

There is also the possibility that this is an attempt to divide Trump supporters.  Trump supporters are accused of being some kind of cult, yet about half of Trump supporters are against the COVID jabs.  That isn’t much a cult.

Candace Owens has questioned Trump’s devotion to the vaccines.  Alex Jones is now saying that he is inclined to favor DeSantis for president because DeSantis is speaking out against the vaccines (up to a point).  Jones is warning Trump to get out in front of this and to own up to his mistake.

Is Trump Evil, or Was He Duped?

For those who aren’t happy with Trump’s stance on the COVID vaccines, there is some disagreement about his intentions.  Was Trump simply duped by the establishment (much like he was duped about COVID in general)?  Is Trump aware that the vaccines are bad but doesn’t really care?  Or is Trump recognizing that the vaccines may not be so good but has too much of an ego to admit any wrongdoing?

Personally, I lean towards the last option.  He has had a lot of pushback from his supporters, so he can’t claim ignorance any longer.  I don’t think he wants to ever admit he was wrong on anything, as he sees it as a sign of weakness that will only help his enemies.

In this case, I think he needs to admit he was wrong.  At the very least, he needs to acknowledge that many of his supporters are not supportive of the COVID vaccines and that everyone should have the right to make their own personal decision.  If he does that last part, it may or may not be enough to keep his supporters.

I think Trump does bear some responsibility for the vaccines, even if he was duped.  This is what happens when you lack principles.  If he were a libertarian, he would have opposed government intervention.

Instead, Trump pushed to fund the pharmaceutical companies, and it is probably true that he did put political pressure on the FDA to authorize them quickly.  Incidentally, this didn’t even work, as the FDA waited until just a few days after the election to announce the wonderful COVID vaccines.

After that, Trump touted the vaccines and how his Operation Warp Speed gave them to us.  Trump wanted credit for the vaccines.  But be careful what you wish for.

Changing Realities

With all of that said, it is a joke that anyone from the political left is accusing Trump of rushing through the COVID vaccines.  I suppose they are trying to walk a fine line and say that Trump pressured the FDA, but thankfully our professional experts went through all of the proper protocols despite his pressure.

These people count on the American people to have extremely short memories.  In some cases, they are right to count on this.

It reminds me of 2020 when these people were cheering on the riots (sorry, mostly peaceful protests) in cities across America.  Once they settled down and the election was getting closer, they talked about how Trump was not upholding law and order.

There are also massive contradictions everywhere that you aren’t supposed to notice.  The CDC has changed its guidelines to say that the vaccinated and unvaccinated should not be treated differently at this point, yet there are still mandates all over the place.  This includes a mandate that prevents non-U.S. citizens/ residents from entering the country unless they are vaccinated.

This latest attempt to blame Trump for any shortcomings of the vaccines will hopefully just make more people mad.  I remember when Biden said that if you get the vaccine you can’t get COVID.  I remember when he said that if you are vaccinated that you can’t die.  (He literally said this.  It wasn’t that you couldn’t die of COVID, which is also a lie.  He said you couldn’t die.)

I remember Biden telling America that his/ their (speaking on behalf of the vaccinated, apparently) patience was wearing thin.  And I certainly remember the day when Biden announced that most of America would face the choice of getting the shot or losing their ability to make a living.

These people are truly the scum of the earth.  I don’t think there is one single politician in DC on the left who opposed these totalitarian vaccine mandates.  Yet, they now have the gall to blame Trump and say that he pressured the FDA to rush them through?

These are truly evil people.  I don’t say the same about Trump.  Maybe Trump is evil, but I really don’t know.  He doesn’t seem to hate my guts, but maybe he’s a good actor.

The people who wanted to mandate vaccines on the population are seriously deranged and evil people.  I have no sympathy for them.  Even for the ones who were simply duped, they should never have any position of authority or power ever again.  It was immoral to try to mandate anything, even if you truly believed it was safe and effective.

Anyway, I am happy to make this an issue.  Trump does bear some responsibility.  But those on the left who are calling out Trump bear even more.  I want the COVID shots to be an issue that people don’t forget about.  It exposes the evil of these people in power.

Joe Biden, as king, has declared student loan forgiveness of up to $10,000 (or more) for those making under $125,000 (or $250,000 for couples); except it isn’t really forgiveness, because the lenders aren’t forgiving anything.  They are just being paid by other people.

While most debate the logic or illogic of such a move, there isn’t a lot of talk about where Biden gets the constitutional authority to do this.  Supposedly he is using COVID emergency powers as an excuse, but Congress is supposed to authorize spending.  And to be sure, this is spending and potentially inflationary.

College and student loans are just another area in life where the government has its hands all over the place and has made a disaster of things.  In a free market, the government wouldn’t be backing student loans.  This has served to drive up the price of education (if that’s what you want to call it) while sinking people into debt.

We hear about how we need government regulators to protect people from predatory lenders.  But in a free market, lenders have an incentive to not let people get in over their heads.

In the housing market, which has its share of government interference, at least there is collateral backing up the loans.  Even if someone takes out a loan for $190,000 for a $200,000 house, then the buyer has some stake in it.  As long as the price doesn’t drop, then there is $10,000 in equity, plus the closing costs that were put in.  If you default on the mortgage, then the lender gets the house.

With student loans, what is the collateral?  Even if your degree isn’t in gender studies, what is to stop someone from taking out a big loan and defaulting right after finishing school?  That is why the bankruptcy laws are different, and it is very hard to discharge student debt.

In a free market, lenders would be very careful to ensure they get their money back.  They also wouldn’t lend $200,000 for someone to get a degree in cultural studies.  Even a potential doctor would have to show some credentials of likely becoming a doctor.

So the whole thing is a mess created by government.  Still, people voluntarily made these decisions to take on student loans.  Maybe it’s unfair, but it is more unfair for someone else to pay for those bad decisions.

Irrational Anger?

I have been surprised how divisive this issue quickly became.  The more outspoken people in this case are those who oppose this move.  I’m sure someone who has student debt who will benefit is secretly cheering.  Maybe they even recognize that it isn’t fair, but they’ll take what they can get.  They know they are getting the short end of the stick with other government policies.

I completely agree with all of the people who are angry and many of the reasons being given.  It is unfair.  Some people gave up vacations and nice cars in order to do the responsible thing and pay off their loans.  Some people worked through college to minimize or eliminate the need for loans.  Some people chose not to go to college and now get to pay for those who did.

Even though there is an income cap, it is quite high.  I can imagine a couple making $200,000 per year combined who get this loan forgiveness (maybe for both of them), while the plumber down the street has to pay for part of it.

Still, with the amount of money Congress has wasted and committed this year alone, it is funny that people are so outraged.  I mean, at least here some people are getting some relief.  It is a transfer of wealth.  When $50 billion is spent on Ukraine, it is going to weapons manufacturers and corrupt politicians in Ukraine.  Yet, there is less outrage there.

I see this with my kids.  It is very important to both of them for everything to be fair between the two of them.  If one of them gets one cookie and the other gets two, then one of them will be yelling that it’s not fair.  I’m not sure if this ever changes, even as adults.

It wouldn’t matter if the kid down the street got three cookies.  It certainly doesn’t matter to them that there are starving children in Africa or Asia.  They compare everything against each other.

So it goes with Americans.  It is something in human nature.  If their money goes off to some corrupt country overseas, then everybody in America is seemingly getting screwed equally.  But when you favor one group over another, then all heck breaks loose.

Don’t get me wrong here.  I am glad that some people are really upset over the whole student loan bribe.  It isn’t even fully partisan.  There are some Democrats who are irritated who made good decisions in not taking on debt or paying it off responsibly.

If Joe Biden thinks this will favor his party in the midterm elections in November, I think he is mistaken.  It might have irritated as many or more people as it helped.

The U.S. dollar and the euro have hit parity.  You can now exchange one U.S. dollar and get approximately one euro.  You have to go back almost 20 years to see this.

There was one point in 2008 where exchanging a euro would get you over $1.50.  That just shows the massive drop that has occurred.

So why is the dollar so strong, especially considering that price inflation was recently above 9%?  Should we be bullish on the dollar?

It is first important to recognize that we are comparing fiat currencies to each other.  They are all controlled by a central bank, which are controlled by government.

It isn’t so much that the dollar is good.  It’s just that the other major fiat currencies are so much worse.  That goes in particular for the yen and the euro.

The Chinese yuan is rather meaningless in comparison to the dollar because it still isn’t freely floating.  The euro and the yen are openly traded.

The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are creating money out of thin air like crazy, just as the Federal Reserve has done for the last 14 years.  But at least the Fed has stopped it (for now) to fight the price inflation that it caused.

The U.S. also has the luxury (if you want to call it that) of being the world’s reserve currency.  This is slowly fading, but it still holds true.  That is a reason that it surprises me a little that the dollar has been strong even against the horrible euro.  With the sanctions, and what is essentially a default against Russia, it’s curious why more foreign countries aren’t dumping dollars like there’s no tomorrow.

Russia dumped most of its U.S. treasury holdings a while ago.  They were wise to do so.  Japan and China are still the major foreign holders of U.S. government debt.  I think the Chinese government is incredibly naïve for doing this.  The fact that the Chinese central bank is still holding almost one trillion dollars of U.S. debt tells me that there must be something to the theories that Biden is working hand-in-hand with the Chinese government.

Then again, it must be every president.  It’s not as if China was dumping its holdings when Trump was president.  It makes you wonder if all of the bluster is real, or if Chinese officials are really that naïve.

Chinese officials have to see what just happened with Russia.  The U.S. government, of all entities, didn’t like Russia going into another country.  So they placed heavy sanctions and basically stiffed the Russians out of money they were owed.

If something more goes down with Taiwan, why couldn’t the U.S. government just stiff the Chinese of their one trillion dollars in holdings?  To ask the question is to answer it.

But apparently what has happened with Russia hasn’t been enough to sink the U.S. dollar.  It is still king of the major fiat currencies, at least for now.

Ironically, the U.S. government’s intervention in Ukraine has hurt Europe far more than anyone.  The Europeans are obeying their U.S. masters and shooting themselves in their collective feet.  As energy prices soar and people get ready for a potentially brutal winter, the Russians seem to be doing far better than the Europeans.

The European version of socialism isn’t working out too well.  The people there tolerate far more than Americans, although we can acknowledge that a few places such as Hungary are doing comparatively well.

There are more protests in places like Germany and France than we see in the United States.  But they have a lot more to protest.  For the horrible lockdowns and vaccine mandates that have happened in the United States, it has been even worse in other “first world” countries.

It is rather sad to see the decline of Europe.  I think that’s yet another reason why it’s important that the U.S. get through this time of increasing totalitarianism and find liberty again.  We need to set an example for the rest of the world.

Economically, it is going to be really tough times ahead for much of the world.  I think Western Europe will have it particularly rough.  The euro is just one of many canaries in the coalmine.  Americans won’t have it easy, but it will likely be better than most of Europe.

Many years ago, I wrote a small e-book titled “Should You Pay Down Your Mortgage?”  I lay out the arguments for and against paying down additional principal on your home mortgage.

I still consider most of it relevant today.  One thing that has changed is the tax laws.  There are far fewer people today who will itemize deductions on their tax return and get a benefit of deducting the interest portion of mortgage payments.  Anyway, I always thought this was a bad argument for not paying down a mortgage faster, and it was a really bad argument for taking on a bigger mortgage.

I am somewhat in the Dave Ramsey camp when it comes to a home mortgage.  I think it is generally better to pay it down and eventually pay it off.  You don’t get rich by paying interest to a bank or financial institution.  You get rich by collecting interest.

We are now in a situation where price inflation is higher than most people’s mortgage interest rate.  We are told that it doesn’t make financial sense to pay down a fixed-rate mortgage in an inflationary environment.

I don’t fully accept this argument.  You are still paying interest.  It doesn’t seem to make sense paying down a mortgage with a 4% interest rate when price inflation exceeds 8% annually.

But the question isn’t whether price inflation is higher than your interest rate.  The question is whether you can get a better return on your money than the 4% interest rate.

In a high inflationary environment, nominal interest rates tend to go higher.  In our world today, we have highly negative real interest rates.  You might be able to get 2 or 3% nominally buying Treasury bills or bonds.  If you could get, let’s say, a 7% return investing in a U.S. Treasury bill, then it would make sense taking the extra money you have and putting it there rather than putting it towards paying down the principal on your mortgage.

Don’t forget you will owe taxes on your “gains” on that 7%.  I put “gains” in quotes because it is still below the price inflation rate.

There are many legitimate reasons for not paying extra on your mortgage.  One obvious reason is that you simply can’t afford to do it.  It is also relevant how much liquidity you have.  If most of your net worth is tied up in your house equity and in retirement accounts, and you don’t have much money in the bank, then it is better to save up for a good emergency fund before tying it up in a mortgage.  The exception might be if you are close to paying off your home mortgage and can eliminate that expense from your life.

I have laid out those reasons before, but I just want to address an argument that may be unique to our time.  I am in this situation.

I refinanced at a perfect time.  It was in late 2020/ early 2021.  I have a 2% fixed rate on a 15-year loan.  2% is just ridiculously low, and it was at or near the bottom of mortgage rates.

I have not made any extra payments, and I really don’t plan to make any extra payments.  The rate is so ridiculously low.  Even though I am paying out a very small amount of interest, it seems that any extra money could be put to better use.  I really probably can get a better return elsewhere, though I understand that there are no guarantees in life.

Even with the incredibly low yields, I can still do very slightly better right there now.

Also, in this time of higher inflation, my mortgage payment is my one predictable expense each month.  It doesn’t change.  The property taxes may change, but the actual principal and interest don’t change.  Sure, I would rather not have it at all, but it doesn’t make sense to dump anything extra towards it at this time.

This is why personal finance is so personal.  If I had a rate of 4% or higher, I might be more apt to throw a few extra bucks at the thing each month.

I won’t say that I’ll never pay extra.  Times may change.  Maybe we’ll go into some kind of a deflationary depression where rates go to zero or near zero.

Or maybe in 10 years or so I will have so little left on the mortgage that it might make sense to write a check (metaphorically speaking) to get rid of the thing.

But if you have a 2% rate or something similarly low on your mortgage that is fixed, it probably doesn’t make sense paying it down unless you just have a lot of money sitting in the bank doing nothing.

I’ve been asking my conservative friends whom they would rather see as the Republican nominee for president in 2024.  Trump, DeSantis, or someone else?

I had one person tell me DeSantis.  The other few people didn’t give me a direct answer, although one said he might prefer Trump because he would rather see DeSantis stay as governor of Florida.

If Trump wants to run and is not prevented from running by the deep state, then I think it is Trump’s nomination to have.  The polls seem to reflect this.

If Trump runs, then I don’t think DeSantis will run.  He is smart enough in this respect.  In fact, I don’t even know if DeSantis wants to become president.  He has a young family, and his wife just got through a battle with cancer.

DeSantis also knows how brutal the establishment really is.  He faces down the evil people every day, but I do think he knows it will be amplified greatly if he runs for president.

When you run for president and you are a threat to the establishment, you are actually putting your life in danger.  Even your family is not safe.

I have been saying for almost 7 years now that the reason the establishment hates Trump isn’t just because of his mean tweets and his brash personality.  The problem is what he is saying.  Trump exposes (sometimes inadvertently) the corruption and criminality of the ruling elite.

If Trump decided not to run (or couldn’t run) and DeSantis stepped in, then you better believe that the establishment and its media will hit DeSantis hard.  Just as they did to Trump with the Russian collusion hoax, they will make stuff up about DeSantis.

If Marco Rubio or Mike Pompeo get the Republican nomination, they don’t have to worry.  The establishment will dish out some criticism, but they would be happy with these types of candidates.

I don’t think the Republican Party is going back to George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.  I mean that metaphorically.  I don’t think Mike Pence would go anywhere if he runs.  It is possible that an establishment Republican could get the nomination if there are no other options and the person pretends as if they are a fan of Donald Trump.  This is the kind of game that someone like Pompeo has played.

When you look back at Trump’s presidency, is it any coincidence that the people who found themselves in legal trouble are the same people who were sympathetic to a less interventionist foreign policy?  Think about that.

So if someone like DeSantis ran for president and somehow got elected, you can just imagine the chaos.  You will quickly see that the chaos wasn’t about Donald Trump.  It was about what he represented.

DeSantis has been bolder in Florida with some of his appointments than Trump was as president.  If DeSantis surrounded himself by people who were not in bed with the establishment, you can only imagine how brutal things will get.  If his whole cabinet consists of anti establishment people, you could see the Department of “Justice” trying to convict the entire administration.

And just look at what has happened to Trump just because of his rhetoric.  Imagine if Trump had threatened to disband the intelligence agencies as Kennedy did.  Imagine if Trump’s policies were more reflective of some of his rhetoric.

This is where we are in 2022.  The establishment has been exposed.  And because of that, it has become even more dangerous.

I once read an analogy of the empire being like an animal.  Maybe it was Lew Rockwell who made this analogy.  Imagine an elephant or a rhino or a bull inside of a house.  That represents the empire.  The animal gets wounded and starts thrashing about.  It is injured.  It could even die one day.  But it is going to cause a lot of chaos and destruction as it thrashes about with its injuries.

I don’t want to see DeSantis run for president because I live in Florida.  I have no idea how he would be on foreign policy.  I fully understand he is not a libertarian.  But he does get a lot right, and he does have courage.

I don’t really want Trump to run again unless he is more disciplined this time.  I want to hear him talk about tearing up the intelligence agencies and the deep state.  I want to hear that he will appoint people who don’t hate him.  I want to hear that his son-in-law will have nothing to do with his next administration.  I want to hear that he will pardon Julian Assange and Edward Snowden.  I want to hear that he will fire all of the top people at the CDC and FDA who have caused so much grief and havoc over the last several years.  I want Trump to promise that he will repeal all vaccine mandates imposed by the federal government on day one of him taking office.

Otherwise, it will just be a show about Trump’s personality and all of the supposedly wicked things he has done.

One thing I know for sure is that 2024 will be one for the books.  It may top 2016 and 2020 in terms of entertainment and chaos.  It will be a dangerous time, but I am cautiously optimistic that better times are ahead.