Joe Biden had a nearly 2-hour press conference on Wednesday, and his handlers had a nearly 2-hour heart attack.  He was mostly on script at the beginning, and then he went out on his own where the magic happened.

Biden said he has “probably outperformed what anybody thought would happen.”  This was after being asked a question that listed the many bad things that happened during his first year of office.  Unfortunately, Biden’s statement in this case was probably true for many.

He has outperformed my expectations in how much chaos and disaster he has caused.  I figured Biden would be a bumbling fool in the White House, but I underestimated how much damage he could do.  Even though most of it probably originated from his handlers, he is still responsible for his actions.

I agreed with withdrawing troops from Afghanistan, but even that was done in a clumsy (to give the benefit of the doubt) way.

High price inflation is not entirely Biden’s fault, but his mega-spending policies are only making the situation first.

Biden said on Wednesday that we need to increase production as a way to resolve the inflation.  That is true to an extent, but he is causing major chaos with his vaccine mandates, which only serves to hurt productivity.

There are a couple of good things that came out Biden’s press conference.  First, he didn’t propose any significant new executive orders or legislation.  He said he is a capitalist and that he signed an executive order to tackle unfair competition in our economy.  I’m not sure how imposing executive orders is the act of a capitalist, but he didn’t talk about anything specific planned for the future.

The last year has been a disaster, and I feel the need to pay attention when Biden gives a speech.  He says things that could directly impact me, unlike most other things with past presidents.  Every time he issues a disastrous decree, he just seems to double-down the next time around.

On Wednesday, Biden didn’t double-down.  He didn’t propose anything specific that I noticed.  If he is becoming a lame duck president in only his second year, I am fine with that.

I just hope that he follows what England just announced and withdraws the vaccine mandates.  I think this would be a great victory for the American people.

A second good thing that came out of Biden’s press conference is the fact that he was a total train wreck.  He is deeply unpopular, and nobody takes him seriously.  This is positive for liberty.  I would rather the public not like and not respect the president, especially when most of what that president does is bad.

There is one problem though.  The establishment media and his own party are starting to throw in the towel.  They are actually criticizing Biden, which means Biden won’t be running for president again in 2024.

I think the problem is that they are attacking his personal characteristics in a subtle way.  Biden is highly flawed, morally and mentally.  There is no question that he has suffered cognitive decline.  But that enables the establishment to criticize Biden the man without criticizing the Biden policies.

The worst thing about Biden isn’t that he loses his words and appears to have dementia at times.  It also isn’t that he is a criminal.  The worst aspect of Biden is the disastrous policies he has pushed.

Is the media going to blame the failure of vaccines and the non-ending of COVID on Biden the man?  You bet they will, if that is what they have to do.  They will ignore the fact that they cheered on his inhumane policies the whole time until it was no longer convenient to do so.

The establishment all of a sudden has changed its narrative.  They say that the kids need to be in school.  They say that lockdowns may cause more harm than good.  In other words, they are starting to say what some of us were saying in March 2020.

Sometimes it is better to just let things be.  If we are going back to normal (prior to March 2020), then maybe we shouldn’t rub it in people’s faces who are trying to backtrack.  They won’t apologize, but they will change their tune.

In this case though, I feel like we do need to rub it in their faces.  These people promoted policies that have destroyed many millions of lives and essentially shut down the world for 2 years (not 2 weeks).  I do think we need to say, “I told you so.”

Finally, I want to address foreign policy.  The one thing really dangerous right now with Biden’s unpopularity is that it may tempt him to start a war.

Biden was all over the place with Russia and Ukraine.  He said things that invited criticism from both the war hawks and the pro peace side.

Biden is taking hits for saying, “It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion…”  The war hawks are really going after him on this one.

But there is something else he slipped in that surprised me.  He was talking about the consequences for Russia if Russia invades Ukraine.  Biden then said, “The cost of going into Ukraine, in terms of physical loss of life, for the Russians, they’ll – they’ll be able to prevail over time, but it’s going to be heavy, it’s going to be real, and it’s going to be consequential.”

In other words, Biden is willing to go to war, and maybe even risk nuclear war, but he admitted that Russia will prevail over time.  Does this sound utterly foolish to anybody else, no matter where you stand on the issue?

If you know that Russia will prevail over time, why would you say that, and why would you risk going to war over it?

It appears that Biden’s foreign policy is just as chaotic as his domestic policies.  It is scary that this man has the ability to launch nuclear weapons.

It’s ironic that people in the government under Trump said that they had to maintain control outside of his authority to protect the United States.  Wouldn’t that apply to Biden?  And maybe it does, but we don’t really hear about that.  Even for the Trump haters, I hope they would admit that Trump was a bit more stable in office than Biden is.

In conclusion, anything goes right now.  The president and the establishment have lost a lot of legitimacy, which is good for liberty.  But it is also dangerous like a wild animal that is injured and flailing about.

Let’s hope that the vaccine mandates get repealed and that Biden doesn’t do much in 2022.  I expect the Republicans to sweep in November.  It’s not that the Republicans will do anything great, but it will provide for some gridlock.

The government’s own consumer price index is showing that year-over-year price inflation is running at 7% (December 2021).  This is the highest Americans have seen in nearly 4 decades.

It is starting to resemble the 1970s when price inflation hit double digits.  Here is the problem though.  In the 1970s, interest rates also went to double digits.  Today, they are near zero.

The 1970s economy was not a great time.  Still, if you wanted to save money and not lose purchasing power, you could at least find some kind of savings account, money market fund, or bond that would pay a high interest rate to minimize your lost purchasing power.

Take a look at interest rates today.  As of January 14, 2022, the 1-month yield stood at 0.05%.  The 30-year yield stood at 2.12%.  All of the rates in between those periods were somewhere in between.

But you probably aren’t going to buy a 30-year bond paying just over 2% in order to protect yourself against 7% annual price inflation.  The biggest joke is that you would actually have to pay taxes on the gains from that 2% annual interest.

Maybe you are saving to buy a house in a year.  You can buy a 1-year treasury bill paying about half of a percent.  But if you lose 7% in purchasing power, then you will lose about 6.5% on net.

This is why the current environment of higher price inflation and ultra-low interest rates is so disastrous.  This is why there are speculative bubbles everywhere.  People are forced to speculate just to have a chance to maintain the purchasing power of the money that they want to save.

Depending on how you measure it, real interest rates are currently close to negative 7 percent.  The real interest rate is calculated by taking the current interest rate minus the price inflation rate.

If I go to my bank, I cannot get a savings account or money market fund paying more than a small fraction of a percent.  If you search, maybe you can find a financial institution paying 1 or 2 percent.  The fact remains that real interest rates are deep in negative territory.

Money Management with Inflation

If you have a mortgage rate of 4% right now and it doesn’t make sense to refinance, then it may make sense to pay down the mortgage with extra money laying around.  It seems nonsensical to pay down a 4% rate when your money is depreciating at 7%.  But you have to ask yourself: What are the alternatives?

You can buy a bond paying 1 or 2 percent at best.  You can put it in a savings account at near zero interest.  Or you can speculate in the stock market, cryptocurrencies, or whatever you want to gamble on.  In this context, it all of a sudden doesn’t seem that stupid to pay down the debt.

It’s interesting that gold and silver have historically been considered the best hedges against higher inflation, yet the precious metals are about the only thing not part of the Everything Bubble.

Perhaps this makes gold and silver a really good buy right now.  Or maybe it just means it makes everything else a really good sell right now.

From a personal standpoint, you really have to look at your own situation and your risk tolerance.  And sometimes losing a little bit of purchasing power in the short term makes more sense than taking on heavier risk where you could lose even more.

From an overall economic standpoint, the current situation is very bad for wealth generation.  The high inflation with the low interest rates really encourages people to take on debt and to not save.  The low interest rates are sending a signal that there are already plenty of savings in the economy.  But that is not the case because the low interest rates are artificially low.  This is what happens when the Federal Reserve buys up debt.

This will not go on forever.  Something will break, but that is not to say that things won’t get worse.  At some point, interest rates will start to catch up with price inflation, or price inflation will start to come down.

This is why we are in a speculative bubble.  It is a creation of the government and the Federal Reserve spending money, running up debt, and creating money out of thin air.  It is damaging to our living standards.

Just about everything is a speculation now.  Staying in cash is, in itself, a speculation.  The best you can do is to diversify and to stay up to date on what is happening.  The current situation with high negative real interest rates won’t last forever.  Don’t be on the wrong side when something changes.

The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled on two of the vaccine mandates coming out of Washington DC.  It is a mixed bag.

The court struck down the OSHA mandate that would have required vaccination or weekly testing for employees who work for companies with 100 or more employees.  This was a 6-3 decision, with all of the Republican appointees voting to strike down the mandate, while all of the Democratic appointees sided with tyranny.

This was the most egregious edict coming out of the White House.  If it hadn’t been struck down, I think there would have been massive protests in the streets, to say the least.

In the other ruling, the court upheld the vaccine mandate for healthcare workers in facilities that accept government funds (i.e., Medicare and Medicaid).  So it looks like most healthcare workers will have to get the COVID vaccine or get an exemption if they want to keep their jobs.  This is in the midst of supposedly crowded hospitals and staffing shortages.  What could possibly go wrong?

In other words, the CDC is telling people who may still be symptomatic and tested positive for COVID to go back to work in the hospital after 5 days, but if you are not vaccinated and fully healthy, you can’t work.

This egregious decision came from Stephen Breyer, Elena Kagan, and Sonia Sotomayor.  Joining these three were John Roberts and Brett Kavanaugh, who were the swing votes from the other decision.

Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, and Amy Coney Barrett dissented on this decision.

“Conservative” Judges

On January 7, I wrote the following:

“There are 6 judges on the court who are Republican appointees.  I think Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh (in that order) are likely to favor striking down the vaccine mandates.  Barrett and Roberts are a little less certain.  These may not be black and white decisions either.”

So I was right on everything except I got the order wrong between Kavanaugh and Barrett.  I may not agree with all of her reasoning, but at least Amy Coney Barrett voted in favor of striking down both mandates.  Kavanaugh, the one whom conservatives fought so hard for, betrayed liberty and voted in favor of firing many thousands of healthcare workers.  It is little surprise that Roberts flipped, as he is the reason that Obamacare was originally upheld.

There is no question that Thomas is the best justice for liberty and constitutionality.  He is followed by Gorsuch and Alito.  After those three, you don’t know what you’re going to get.

So-called conservative judges are cited as the reason we need to elect Republicans to the presidency, according to conservatives.  I’m not sure if these two decisions affirm that or contradict that.

Conservative judges – You can’t live with them and you can’t live without them.

It obviously could have been much worse, but it is frustrating to see some conservatives on social media gloating about this.  Sure, the conservative judges struck down the OSHA mandate, but there are now tens of thousands of healthcare workers who are at risk of losing their jobs or being forced to get a shot they don’t want.  And that could include the accountant and the janitor.  This would have been unthinkable two years ago.  Even one year ago, you would have probably been called a conspiracy theorist for predicting such a thing.

So forgive me if I don’t celebrate this.  It partially rolled back the dictatorial powers from the executive branch, but we aren’t in great shape here.  My optimism only comes from the fact that there are tens of millions of people who have been woken up to the fact that the federal government is doing more harm than good.  And many people also have come to realize that there is great evil at the top, including in the administrative state.

I haven’t fully dug into the decisions, but the majority opinion in striking down the OSHA mandate isn’t that great.  Thomas, Gorsuch, and Alito cited federalism, saying that state and local authorities possess considerable power in regulating public health, but the federal government should be limited and divided.  In other words, they are actually looking at the constitutionality of the whole thing.

Even here, they cite that Congress must clearly speak in order to delegate such powers, which I disagree with, as there is nothing in Article 1, Section 8 giving any such powers to Congress in regulating healthcare or workplace safety.

The general majority opinion in the OSHA case was worse in that it criticized the mandate because COVID should not be considered an occupational hazard.  In other words, it leaves room for Congress to do something or for the Biden people to find some other kind of workaround.

My only hope is that the Democrats in Congress take a step back and realize that this isn’t going to be a winning issue for them in November.

Government Funding and Control

The rationale behind allowing the mandates to go forward for healthcare facilities is that they receive government funds.  This is typical in most of what government does.

They steal our money from us and then they fund different sectors of the economy.  Then when they regulate these different sectors and get objections, they say that they have do have the power to control and regulate because these sectors are receiving government funds.

So the thieves steal your money and give some of it back to you.  But because they gave some of it back to you, they get to dictate everything you do with that money and everything that revolves around it.

It is almost impossible to be a healthcare facility – especially a hospital – and not receive government funds.  How can you compete against all of the other entities that are receiving government funds?  Plus, you are still subject to many of the same rules and regulations.

This decision is a good example of why some libertarians oppose school vouchers.  If a “private” school starts accepting any kind of government money (i.e., vouchers), then it becomes subject to all of the rules and regulations.  The government could then tell a school owner to vaccinate all of the employees, or vaccinate all of the children, or teach critical race theory, or whatever.

When you accept the government funds, you also accept all of the dictates that go with it, including the bad ones.  The problem is that the government is stealing the money in the first place.

Where Now?

There are still other mandates to be decided.  There is the mandate put in place for federal contractors, which technically could impact a lot of companies.

There are also mandates within the federal government that have already impacted so many people.  I guess the government really wants to get rid of any free thinkers who do not automatically obey the words of Biden and Fauci.

It will also be interesting to see how this plays out in states where the legislature has said that companies will not impose vaccine mandates.  These are actual laws, unlike the dictates from Washington DC.  If you have a hospital in Florida or Texas, will they follow the state law or the dictates from Washington DC?  It may be a question of where the consequences are the least.

Of course, this whole thing is ridiculous.  Aside from the legality of it all, it is quite obvious that the vaccines do absolutely nothing in preventing the transmission of COVID (as previously admitted by the CDC).  Therefore, there is absolutely no logic in having vaccine mandates except to protect the non-vaccinated people (which in itself I highly question).

Some people will be coerced into taking the jab.  But what about the thousands or millions who don’t obey and lose their job?  Are they better off non-jabbed and unemployed or non-jabbed and employed?  Again, it is clear that vaccination does nothing to stop the spread or protect others.

The Biden administration has created total chaos and destruction.  And the more it is clear that the COVID vaccines are not effective (or safe), the more that the establishment keeps pushing for everyone to get vaccinated.  These are sick and evil people.

Here are some random things that I had to get off my mind.  Some of them tie together, but there is no common theme except that we live in a crazy world.

Sonia Sotomayor – The Expert on COVID

This illustrious Supreme Court justice recently declared that 100,000 children are in serious condition, many of them on ventilators, because of COVID.  The fact checkers are saying she was off by a factor of at least 20 because there are only a couple of thousand kids in hospitals with COVID.

But even this is misleading.  In a rare moment of truth, Fauci recently stated that many of the children in hospitals with COVID were admitted for other reasons but tested positive while in the hospital.  So they are in the hospital with COVID, not because of COVID.

It is great that Sotomayor made this comment because it helps further delegitimize the government.  In this case, it is the Supreme Court taking the hit.

If there is one thing to be learned from 2020 and 2021, it is that we shouldn’t be respecting someone’s thoughts and opinions just because they are deemed an “expert”.  Who gets to determine who qualifies as an expert?  The other experts?  It is an endless loop.

There are nine Supreme Court justices, and they often come to very different conclusions on cases.  If they are all experts, how can they be so far apart in their conclusions?

The last thing I’ll point out for now is that even if Sotomayor’s outrageous claims had been correct, that wasn’t the question in front of the court.  The question is whether the executive branch can unilaterally impose vaccine mandates.  So even if there were 100,000 kids in serious condition because of COVID, it doesn’t make the mandates any less unconstitutional.

But Sotomayor’s understanding of the Constitution as a Supreme Court justice isn’t one of her strong points.

The Term Unvaccinated

I have been using the term “unvaccinated” to refer to people who haven’t gotten the COVID shots.  There is some question on whether the COVID shots should even be called vaccines, as they are more like gene therapy.  But that isn’t the topic for this section.

My teenage daughter told me that the term unvaccinated isn’t accurate.  It should be “not vaccinated”.  It’s not like someone is vaccinated and then somehow reverses the process and then becomes unvaccinated.  As my daughter said, you can’t suck the vaccine out of you once it has already happened.  It isn’t like getting dressed and then undressed.

Bob Saget, RIP

Actor and comedian Bob Saget passed away while on tour.  He was 65 years old.

As a kid, I watched Full House, where Saget played the nerdy father.  I remember the first time I saw him on television doing stand-up comedy.  He was telling raunchy jokes and dropping f-bombs.  It was a bit jarring.  We tend to think of people as the characters that they portrayed on television.  I didn’t see how Danny Tanner could have such a filthy mouth.

Saget said in December that he had received the booster shot for COVID.  Of course, earlier in the year, he tweeted, “I get vaccinated five to six times a day and I feel great!!”

So you don’t always know when he was joking around.  But it does in fact look like he got his booster shot just less than a month before his passing.  We have no idea if his death is at all related to the vaccine, but that is just the point.  We will probably never know because it will never be investigated.

Novak Djokovic Exposes Australia

Djokovic is one of the best tennis players of all time.  He is trying to set the record for the most number of Grand Slam titles.  There is currently a three-way tie between Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer with 20 each.

Djokovic went to Australia just over a week before the Australian Open was to start.  He thought he had his paperwork in order, including a medical exemption for the COVID vaccine because he recently tested positive for COVID.  Like many top athletes, Djokovic is very careful with what he puts in his body.

Djokovic got to experience Australian hospitality by enjoying a stay at one of their concentration camps.  The tyrants in Australia didn’t like the fact that Djokovic was not an obedient citizen of the world without his vaccine passport.

After spending the weekend at the Australian Concentration Camp Resort, a judge ruled in his favor on Monday and reinstated his visa.  However, it is not clear that this saga is over, as Australian officials are still threatening to deport him.

Once Djokovic leaves there, regardless of whether he is able to play tennis, I hope that he releases a statement blasting the Australian tyrants.  He should say that he is never again setting foot on that soil as long as it is run by third-world dictators.

I have never been much of a Djokovic fan (unlike Aaron Rodgers, who is also not COVID vaccinated).  Djokovic can be a bit of a hot head at times, and he doesn’t always come across as likable.  At the same time, I have seen him show much grace over the years too.

In this situation, he is an ally.  At the very least, he has helped to display the tyrannical idiocy that is happening in Australia right now.

Meanwhile, I lost some respect for Rafael Nadal, who also seeks the record for most Grand Slam titles.  He has been a shill for the vaccine.  At first, he was not sympathetic towards Djokovic’s plight.  Nadal thinks you should just trust the experts and get your shots.  After the court ruled in Djokovic’s favor on Monday, Nadal softened his stance a bit and acknowledged that he should have a right to participate in the tournament.

Vaccine Mandates

While it is getting some attention (but not enough), the biggest story by far – domestically speaking – is the vaccine mandates and how the U.S. Supreme Court will come down.

This could potentially impact millions of people’s lives directly.  I’m sure some have and will be coerced into getting the shots in order to have a job.  But that isn’t the case for many.  The Biden administration is saying that you are better off not vaccinated and not working and not supporting your family than being not vaccinated and working.  Because for anyone who refuses to be coerced into getting jabbed, this is ultimately the choice.

It is a bit crazy that this is one of the most important stories when the CDC director already admitted that the vaccines don’t stop transmission.  And now she is also admitting that over 75% of the deaths recorded as COVID were people who had at least 4 co-morbidities.

But that’s what the Brandon administration likes to do.  They like to lie, cause chaos, and then double-down for some more.

The narrative is falling fast, but not fast enough for me.

If you follow Austrian school economics, you know that most predictions are impossible to make.  It is no coincidence that Mises’ most famous work was titled Human Action.  The very fact that humans act freely makes most things impossible to predict.

Still, we can use the information that we have, along with knowing how incentives work for people, and we can make some good guesses about the future.

Some things are trickier than others.  It is a near certainty that Biden and Fauci are not going to be declaring themselves to be libertarians tomorrow morning.  It is a bit less certain that Trump and Biden will be running for the presidency in 2024.

Politics

The one prediction I feel good about making is that the Republicans will take back the majority in Congress in both the House and the Senate.  I think the left has overplayed their hand, especially when it comes to the virus and cultural issues.

The Democrats, and some Republicans, are obsessing about vaccine mandates and the anniversary of January 6.  Most people don’t really care about what happened on January 6, 2021.  They don’t see it as relevant to their lives.  They know that “American democracy” was not in a serious threat.  They care more about the food prices when they go to the store.

People do care about the vaccine mandates.  There is probably nobody on this planet who would quit their job because their employer is not forcing vaccination.  There are millions of people who will quit their job or be fired because their employer will force vaccination to remain an employee.

In other words, this issue will only fire up the people who are deeply impacted by it.  Those are the people who don’t want to get jabbed.  They know that it is mostly the tyrants on the left who are pushing for the vaccine mandates.  None of these people will be voting for a Democrat.

Biden continues to act like a tyrant, and he is deeply unpopular.  Harris is no better.  With price inflation raging, the voters are going to take it out on the Democrats in November 2022, as well they should.

I do not hold any great hope for the Republicans in Congress, but at least it will provide some gridlock.  It won’t gridlock the spending and some of the worst elements of the federal government, but it will hopefully at least pull back the edicts coming from Biden.

Some Republicans like Liz Cheney may find themselves in trouble too.  Maybe this is just wishful thinking, but some of the ones who have sided with Democrats over the last year may find themselves primaried.

Beyond 2022, I doubt we are going to see a Biden and Trump rematch in 2024.  Biden is deeply unpopular.  He is also old, and he acts older.  Trump is old, but he acts younger than his age.  Trump has energy.

I don’t think Biden will run again.  If his wife doesn’t make sure of it, then the Democratic Party establishment will.

Trump may run again, but there is no guarantee he will win the nomination.  He keeps obsessing over his great vaccines, while almost half of his supporters want nothing to do with them.  Meanwhile, the Omicron variant (if it really is a variant and not just another version of the common cold) is making it obvious that the COVID vaccines are ineffective.

Trump says he is against the mandates as an after thought.  But he will go on and on about Operation Warp Speed.  It was an operation warp speed to fund the vaccine companies and to force medical experiments on a mass scale.

I feel like Trump has lost his way.  Even on the January 6 events, he doesn’t go to bat for the way the political prisoners are being treated.  Most of these people were duped, and they are guilty of no more than trespassing.  But Trump just talks about how the election was stolen.  He is more concerned about his own ego than going to bat for his followers.  This is starting to show to his own followers.  If Trump doesn’t straighten up, he is going to become less popular with his base.

Vaccine Mandates

The U.S. Supreme Court is hearing at least two cases.  These cases are extremely important and will likely set a precedent for other scenarios.  There are 6 judges on the court who are Republican appointees.  I think Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh (in that order) are likely to favor striking down the vaccine mandates.  Barrett and Roberts are a little less certain.  These may not be black and white decisions either.

If these get struck down, then I think all of the federal mandates will be gone in short order.  That would be a major victory.  A favorable Supreme Court decision does not mean that local mandates will be gone.  Places like New York City and Chicago will keep the mandates.  If you are a resident in these places, consider the ramifications carefully.

If the Supreme Court does not strike down these mandates, we will see major chaos.  There will be millions of people who lose their jobs.  It will have dramatic effects on personal liberty and the economy.

The reason there haven’t been massive protests in the U.S. similar to Europe is because things aren’t as bad here.  If these vaccine mandates stick, expect to see millions of people disobey.  It will be their number one issue by far, and they will seek revenge on the tyrants.  It will make 2022 worse than the previous two years for almost everybody.

Investments

I have no idea.

I can’t even begin to predict whether the mania will continue, or if this will be the year when the Everything Bubble finally starts to pop.

I am cheating on this prediction because we are already a week into the new year.  Bitcoin and other so-called cryptocurrencies are falling.

Stocks have been volatile, but the indexes are still near all-time highs.

I can only caution you here.  The bull market may continue, but is the reward worth the risk?

I know the critics will say that those of us warning about a potential crash have been wrong.  But unless someone is telling you to short the market, it isn’t necessarily wrong to warn others about the reality.

In 2021, you would have been better off in stocks than in cash or gold or bonds.  But it doesn’t mean it was wrong of anyone to not be heavily invested in stocks.

If you have a homeowners insurance policy and you don’t make any claims, does this make you wrong for having paid the premium on the policy?  I mean, you lost money that you didn’t have to lose.

We go back to human action.  The future is uncertain.  We can’t predict what will happen, so we have to prepare accordingly.

I think the crypto market will eventually collapse, and I don’t use that word lightly.  Bitcoin may or may not be a part of it.  It’s just a question of whether it will happen in 2022.

Real estate is in a massive bubble, but it could keep going if the Fed keeps creating new money out of thin air and keeps interest rates artificially low.

The same goes for stocks.  They are easier to get into and out of as compared to real estate, but they still represent a big risk.

I still advocate a permanent portfolio for diversification and wealth preservation.

The yield curve hasn’t been inverted since 2019.  We saw a very brief recession in March 2020, which is blamed on the virus.  But it was very brief because the Fed had its foot on the accelerator at the start.

It is unclear if we need to see another inverted yield curve before the next recession.  If so, then that recession will not happen in 2022.  But we live in strange times, so anything could happen.

It would not surprise me if the cyrpto market crashes without stocks and real estate going with it, at least initially.

There is always money to be made in any market, but I am extremely bearish on so-called cyrptocurrencies at this point.

I believe gold is the best buy right now, but that is no guarantee that it will finally explode upwards in price this year.

Conclusion

2022 is an important year for liberty.  We either beat back the COVID tyrants, or our liberty will suffer greatly, and perhaps somewhat permanently.

The rest of the world is depending on America.  Many of the other first-world countries are turning into totalitarian societies.  See Austria and Australia for examples.  Even Canada is really bad.

If America can break out of the COVID tyranny, I think it will set an example for the rest of the world to break free.

I am very pessimistic at times, while I am very optimistic at other times.  We are fighting great tyranny, but at the same time it is clear that many people have shifted their opinions and see the federal government as largely evil.

More and more people are withdrawing their consent.  It is setting a foundation for greater liberty in the future.  We just have to get through this very hard time.

2021 just ended, and it is the start of a new year.  It is a time for people to set resolutions and to take stock of things in their life.

There is nothing magical about the start of a new calendar year, but if it helps us step back and look at the important things in our lives, then we should embrace it.

For New Year’s resolutions, I like to stress that the actions are more important than the results.  You shouldn’t have a resolution to lose 15 pounds.  It is a better resolution to have a contract with yourself that you will, say, exercise at least three times per week, or that you will eat at least two servings of vegetables every day.

The same goes for any other resolutions, including your finances.  The reason actions are important is because you can’t always control the results.  You could say that I want to get a significant raise at my job this year, but what if your boss isn’t in the mood, or your company doesn’t have the money, or we hit a hard recession and it just isn’t possible?  It is better to commit to specific actions that will lead to higher productivity and being a great help to your company.

With personal finances, there are many things we can’t always directly control, including income.  We can’t control the return on our investments, especially if those investments include stocks or other assets that can go up or down in value.  We can’t always control our expenses, as sometimes there are surprise expenses.

We can control what we can control.  We can control how much we go out to eat, how many subscriptions we have for movies and shows, and what car we drive.

We can generally control how much money is directed towards a retirement account or an HSA account, assuming that there is enough left over to pay the bills.

Maybe there are other small specific things that can be done too.  Personally, I have noticed that my cable/ internet bill has crept up.  I probably need to call (which, admittedly, is a little torturous) and find out if I can lower my bill.  Sometimes they will just do it without me giving anything up.  If it saves me 20 dollars per month, it will add up over time.

The big expenses such as the mortgage/ rent and transportation are important to assess when you first get into them.  And sometimes changing some of these big items are necessary.  But for most people, improving their finances will come from making small but not insignificant changes.

Again, if you make a resolution to improve your personal finances, make them specific and actionable steps.

Taking Inventory

I am not good at always doing this, but I think the end of the calendar year is a good time to calculate your net worth.  This should be documented on paper.

The year end is a good time because it is easy to remember, and you will likely have year-end statements for your accounts, which can make it easier.

You should do it line by line for each account.  You don’t have to write out each stock and mutual fund that you own, but you should break it out by accounts.  If you have a 401k and a Roth IRA, these should be separate line items.  You will have a separate line item for different brokerage accounts, bank accounts, and any assets that you own.

If you own a house, I would calculate your net worth with and without your house.  Of course, you should only count the equity in your house (estimated value less the principal balance on the mortgage).

When it comes to other things like a car, it is probably best just not to include it.  While it is certainly better to have a car that is paid off versus a car with a loan, it is typically not significant enough to worry about.  You probably aren’t planning to sell your car and not buy another one.  If you don’t have a loan on it and you aren’t going to get another car any time soon, then you will benefit by not having that expense in the future.

If you own any cryptocurrencies, precious metals, or any kind of collectible that is worth something significant, then these should be included at the approximate year-end value.

Perhaps this all seems to go against what I wrote above – that you should worry more about actions than results.

It is the actions that drive the results.  So you have to make sure you are taking the actions, because that is what is in your control.  But you still have to measure your results from time to time.  If you go over a long period of time and don’t get good results, then you may have to take different actions.

If you go to the gym four times a week but you haven’t lost any weight that you were hoping to lose for the last year, then you probably have to look at your diet and possibly other factors.

If you don’t take action, then there probably isn’t much point at measuring any results.  If you do take action, then you have to measure the results from time to time to see if you need to adjust your actions.  This can be true for weight loss, getting a raise, increasing your net worth, or any number of other things in life.

The start of a new calendar year may be somewhat artificial, but it is a useful time for many to measure their results and to adjust their actions as needed.

Here is to a healthy and prosperous new year.

Unfortunately, going into 2022 we still have to deal with COVID tyranny.  I am fortunate to live in Florida where things are less hysterical, but the threat of presidential edicts continually loom.

With every other president in my lifetime, I didn’t really have to worry much about what was being said or done.  As long as they didn’t start a nuclear war, life went on as normal for most Americans.

To be sure, the federal government has a major impact on our lives and makes us far poorer than we would be otherwise.  But each president is business-as-usual for the most part when it comes to taxes and spending.

Internationally, the president (and his advisors) has had a big impact on foreigners.  When a war is started in Iraq or Syria (to name just a couple), it has a dramatic, and sometimes deadly, impact on those living there.

But domestically, most Americans can just shut off their television and not really pay attention to what the president is doing.  Maybe your taxes will go up or down 1 or 2 percent, but most things just go on as usual.

For all of the Trump hysterics, they just had to turn off the TV, and perhaps social media, and Trump would have been non-existent to them.  He made almost no impact on their lives except to give them emotional stress from his latest Twitter rant.

This is not so for the Biden administration.  You actually have to listen to what is being said or be caught off guard by his latest edict.

You can shut off your TV, but you will still get an email from HR telling you to present your proof of vaccination or else you will be fired, courtesy of Brandon himself.

Earlier this week, I had to find out what was said by the evil duo of Biden and Fauci about domestic air travel.  If they unilaterally decide to ban unvaccinated people on domestic flights, it means that my family may not be able to travel to see some of our family unless we want a really long car ride.

It is all chaos.  The mandates are not only a massive violation of our civil liberties, but they are causing absolute havoc on the businesses that have to deal with them.

Of course, it is easy to not feel sorry for most of these big businesses, but it is still a burden that makes us worse off.  It’s not like these companies can just flick a switch and have their vaccine passport enforcement agency up and running by 9 AM tomorrow morning.  There is a lot that goes into this, including the costs of gathering information and going through exemption requests.

But that’s just the beginning of the chaos, because if it is actually enforced, it means that some people will quit or be fired who otherwise wouldn’t have been.  Many companies already have staffing problems while there are major productivity problems in the economy.

It seems that the Brandon administration will do whatever favors chaos and the destruction of Western Civilization.

And Then There’s Trump

I think most people overestimated Trump’s intelligence.  I know the left says he’s dumb, but I don’t think most people really think that.

George W. Bush is dumb.  He is also evil.  Bush was elected (barely) with the help of the Republican establishment.  Even the corporate media did not attack Bush anywhere near what they did to Trump.

Trump was against the establishment but still managed to win in 2016.  In this sense, he can’t be stupid.  He obviously has some good instincts.  He was very effective at labeling his opponents (Lyin’ Ted, Lil’ Marco, Low-Energy Jeb, Crooked Hillary, etc.).

Trump is considering running again for the 2024 presidential election, but he isn’t reading the tea leaves very well now.  He recently did an interview with Candace Owens.  He seems to be doubling down on the COVID vaccines.

He wants all of the credit for the vaccines, which he says are safe and effective, even though they are neither.  This is at a time when case numbers are hitting their all-time record, even though two-thirds of the population is supposedly vaccinated.

How could they be any more of a failure other than killing off a larger segment of the population due to side effects?  At the start of the rollout, we were never told about the need for booster shots.  We were told that if a majority of people were vaccinated, it would essentially end the pandemic.

But the hysterics – mostly the same ones pushing the vaccines – are terrified due to Omicron.  Shouldn’t this be a non-issue now?  We are about a year into vaccination, and the case numbers are worse than ever.  Maybe you could say that the PCR tests are inaccurate, but I am going by the standard of the hysterics.  The PCR test was therefore unreliable a year ago if that is the excuse.

Despite media claims, it isn’t a clear-cut thing that the vaccine skeptics are all rightwing Republicans.  It is much more nuanced than that.  However, there is certainly a tendency for those questioning the COVID vaccines to more likely be a Trump supporter.

But Trump is having trouble figuring out that something like half of his dedicated base doesn’t want the vaccines that he is pushing.  Trump’s ego is getting in his own way.

Although Trump likes to rail against the media, he also desperately seeks their approval.  He hates that the establishment media is touting the greatness of the vaccines while not giving the credit to Trump and his stupid Operation Warp Speed.  (I could give you anything at warp speed with trillions of dollars at my disposal.)

If Trump were smart, he would be playing it more like Ron DeSantis.  He could say that the vaccine may be beneficial for some people, but you should consult your doctor and make a personal choice.

Trump does say that there should be no mandates, and I do believe that we wouldn’t have these crazy mandates if Trump were still president.  But when Trump spends five minutes touting the greatness of the vaccine with a quick caveat that he doesn’t favor mandates, it makes you wonder whom he is talking to.

Trump is repeating the media lie that this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated.  So Trump thinks they will constantly lie about him, yet they somehow can’t be lying when they say that the hospitals are full of unvaccinated people.

This one issue could actually be the downfall of Trump.  Trump supporters are accused of being some kind of cult and just believing whatever their dear leader says, but this is showing otherwise.  Trump has even been booed at his own events when touting the vaccines and boosters.

If Trump is pushing vaccines that half of his hardcore supporters want nothing to do with, how is this a winning message for Trump?  Some of the big supporters of Trump are already questioning whether they will support him in 2024 because of this one issue.

If Trump is too blind to see the light on this one major issue, how can he effectively lead a movement against the establishment?  I think the answer is clear that he cannot.

I went to the grocery store today.  There were two products in particular in which I noticed price changes.

The first was organic honey.  I believe the price went from $5.99 to $6.99.  I had bought it at the previous price just a few weeks ago.

Now, one dollar doesn’t seem like much, and it really isn’t.  But a one-dollar increase on 6 dollars is 17 percent.  Imagine if the price of everything went up 17% over the course of one year, let alone just a few weeks.

It’s not like I will pay that extra one dollar one time.  I buy honey every couple of weeks.  I might end up paying an extra 20 to 25 dollars per year from this one increase alone.  And that is assuming it won’t go up any more.

I also bought a 20-pack of breadless chicken wings, which I don’t get too often.  The previous price (probably from a few months ago) was $12.99.  They are now $14.99 for the same size package.  That is a 2-dollar increase or 15%.

To be fair, there were many things I bought where I did not notice a price increase from other recent purchases.  But some of those things had already had price increases earlier in the year.

This is very anecdotal, but I expect others see the same thing.  Price inflation can be very subtle, until it’s not.  All of a sudden, you are asking how in the world your grocery bill hit $200.

The government’s own numbers are showing a pickup in price inflation, although they may be understated.  What really matters though is what people are actually experiencing.

As I previously pointed out, price inflation is running near 7%, but most people in corporate America aren’t going to see a 7% or more annual increase unless it is associated with a promotion and more responsibility.  I’m sure there are a few exceptions to that, but many people will see a nominal wage increase with a real wage decline due to the decline in purchasing power.

Middle class America has already been through the wringer, especially in 2020 and 2021 with lockdowns, vaccine mandates, and all of the other crazy restrictions.  Now we get to contend with much higher prices and a likely decline in living standards, at least in the short run.

The good news is that more people are recognizing the problem of inflation and government spending.  I think a substantial minority of the population knows that the Fed is somehow at least partially culpable in all of this.

The Fed may finally be forced to stop creating money out of thin air and supporting the financial markets.  While this may be bad news for people holding stocks and certain other assets, it will be positive if it means that the Fed will have to stop its monetary inflation, at least for a while.  Perhaps we will see a major correction and a reallocation of resources more in accordance with consumer demands.

If the Fed doesn’t do more damage, we could see a correction in prices once consumer demand goes down.  The correction will be painful, and perhaps quite severe, but we need to have a reallocation of resources, and we need for a proper market interest rate that encourages real savings.

This is ultimately what will lift the living standards for middle class America.

The current spending and inflation is unsustainable.  Something has to give at some point.  It may feel like a boom time to a lot of people, but I believe there is a lot of struggle that is being overlooked.  The stock market doesn’t reflect the state of middle class America.

The stock market also won’t necessarily reflect the state of middle class America when it starts crashing.

Whether you celebrate Christmas as a religious holiday, or it is an opportunity for the kids to get gifts from Santa, there is no question that it is a special time of year for many.

At the same time, there is a lot of pressure and stress that comes with Christmas time.  It is supposed to be a time of joy and love, yet it turns into anxiety and work.  In some ways, it would be easier to only celebrate it as a religious holiday and not engage in the gift giving and, for some, traveling.

I write this as someone who experiences these emotions at times.  It is stressful getting everything done and making sure that everything is just so.  Sometimes life is easier when you set low expectations.

I have to remind myself to step back and take in the positive things and the good things that go along with Christmas.  We look at lights as a family, and play Christmas music when driving.

I write a lot about liberty, and sometimes we forget to exercise the liberty that we have.  Sometimes that is as simple as enjoying our material wealth while spending time with family.  We don’t have to go out and hunt for our own food, and we can buy gifts for others even if times are tight.

Sometimes I see liberty advocates who are just miserable people to be around, which actually works against spreading the message of liberty.  If you are trying to convince someone to be more sympathetic to your pro liberty views, it isn’t going to work if you are seen as a miserable person.

I also think of Harry Browne’s classic book How I Found Freedom in an Unfree World.  Sometimes we box ourselves in by our own choices.  We are complaining about our liberty being taken away by the government while we don’t celebrate the many ways in which we are free.

I like to remind others (and myself) once in a while to set some time aside to laugh and to love.  Enjoy the good things that life has to offer, and don’t always focus on the things we don’t have.

Merry Christmas!

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.”  ~ Upton Sinclair

Those who favor liberty understand the great damage being imposed by authoritarians.  But there is a big question of whether the authoritarians are just plain evil, or if they are misinformed.

I used to ponder this question when it came to basic economic issues like the minimum wage.  Do these people not understand basic economics, or are they just demagogues who will promote a bad policy for the sake of their own power?

The minimum wage seems a little less important these days.  First, the massive monetary inflation from the Fed is actually making the minimum wage laws less and less relevant as time goes on, unless we see new minimum wages imposed.

Second, when people are being ordered to take a government needle in the arm or lose their job, or they are being ordered to stay at home unless they are deemed essential, it makes the minimum wage issue seem rather mundane.

It is important to distinguish between the authoritarians.  There are the authoritarians who actually have power (politicians, bureaucrats, those with money and influence, and even corporate executives to some degree).  It is hard not to include those with money and corporate executives these days.  In a free market, they should be able to do what they want peacefully.  The problem is that they are intertwined with government policy.  Think Bill Gates.  Also think corporate media and social media executives who perform the censorship for the government.

There are also authoritarians who simply have little power other than their little voice.  They support the authoritarians who are in power.  I don’t think most of these people are evil, although even here it is somewhat nuanced.  If someone has a salary or a position of prestige that may be threatened by more liberty, then the person may knowingly argue for the more authoritarian position even knowing that it isn’t right.

Or more common, the person will use justifications to bury his head in the sand.

It is easy to see this today with doctors and COVID.  I’m sure there are many doctors who suspect that the treatment (or lack of treatment) protocols are wrong, or at least could be better.  But they purposely have no curiosity.  They don’t want to do their own independent research or listen to an alternative viewpoint because, deep down inside, they are afraid what they might learn.  Then they would have to make a moral choice of continuing with the system (and killing more people) or speaking out against the system and jeopardizing their career.

This is especially hard for a doctor whose life and well-being is contingent on his profession.  He likely spent a lot of money, a lot of time, and a lot of hard work going through medical school.  Why would he be a martyr for the cause, especially when it will likely make no difference?  Why would he give up his entire career and his reputation to make a point?

Of course, there is a difference between saying nothing and actually cheering on the authoritarians with power.

In 2020 and 2021, it has been very difficult for people who don’t like confrontation.  They are accustomed to just going along.  But some people were forced to make hard choices since COVID-19 hysteria appeared.  They have almost been forced to take a stand one way or another.

I shop at Publix, a chain grocery store.  I never once wore a mask in there.  There were a couple of times when I think I was the only person in the store not wearing one.  I know there were others who thought it was stupid to wear a mask, but they conformed because they don’t want confrontation.  (I never had any confrontation there anyway, and the employees were always really nice.)

When it comes to the authoritarians who have little power, it is largely a mix of stupidity and lack of morals.  It is often a combination of both.

And to be sure, it is just stupidity in this one area.  I know many otherwise intelligent people who just believe whatever they are told by Fauci and the establishment media.

Even within the realm of medical care, you can have a brain surgeon who is brilliant at what he does.  Meanwhile, if you start talking about COVID, he just becomes another moron.  He is just “following the science”.

I think the majority are more stupid (in the political arena) than immoral.  They are simply being duped.  The good thing about this is that their minds could possibly be changed.  The hard part is getting them to actually open their minds and consider the fact that they may have been duped.  It obviously isn’t an easy thing to do.

In terms of COVID, the best thing is to just set a good example and live your life normally.  If facts don’t convince them, maybe seeing a bunch of people attending an event without fear will convince them.

The Ruling Elite

The authoritarians who actually have power are a different story.  They tend to be more evil than stupid.

I can tell you that Fauci is not stupid.  He is very crafty with his words.  He is not coming from a good place.  He doesn’t care an ounce about humanity.  He likes the power and prestige.  He likes the money.  He likes exerting power over others.

Even with politicians, bureaucrats, and even media personalities, it is still somewhat nuanced.  They aren’t completely evil either, or at least not most of them.  Most of these people have families, although that doesn’t make them good.

There were rumors that Gavin Newsom was injured by his “booster vaccine” in late October.  He canceled a trip and didn’t make any appearances for well over a week.

My first thought was, “Was he actually stupid enough to get the booster shot?  I figured he was just getting a saline injection.”

But if the ruling elite really do think the COVID vaccines are dangerous, I don’t think it would be very many people in on the secret.  I would be surprised if Fauci didn’t get a saline injection.

So maybe Newsom really did get the booster and experienced some kind of temporary paralysis or other symptoms.  This means that perhaps he is dumber than I thought.

But if he really did experience an adverse event, then there is no doubt that he is evil (not that I needed confirmation).  Just the fact that he hid what happened is enough to show that he isn’t a good person.  Worse, he will probably continue to push his vaccine mandates and other destructive policies.

There are some people who just get into politics because they want some prestige, and they may actually want to make a little bit of a difference.  But then the power goes to their head and they can’t help themselves.  They look away from reality and morality.  They aren’t necessarily pure evil, but they have also lost their moral compass if they ever had one.

To be sure, you should never sympathize someone who is taking away your liberty if they are in a position of power.  Even if they aren’t completely evil, they still have to own what they are doing.  They are using initiatory violence or endorsing policies that do so.  They are responsible for their actions.

You can sympathize a bit more with those who just support the authoritarians.  They are also authoritarians, but they don’t have much power.  They are mostly being duped.  We should do everything we can to help them see the light.

At the same time, they are responsible for their own actions as well.  We are trying to show them that they are supporting evil, yet they continue to support that evil.  They show a lack of curiosity in seeing our point of view.  They are not trying to understand our point of view.  They will be skeptical over everything we say, yet not question one word coming from the establishment.  So even here, my sympathy only goes so far.

Also, with COVID, it is a bit different than other issues in the past.  Someone might have said they support the troops so they support some war overseas.  But it didn’t really impact their life.  So there didn’t seem to be much reason to be curious unless there was a concern for the innocent lives overseas.

With the COVID tyranny, there doesn’t seem to be much of an excuse in not being curious and doing some investigating.  I know the corporate media spits out the same narrative, but it is easy enough to find dissenters.  It is easy enough to find alternative points of view.

The official narrative now is to blame the unvaxxed for all of the COVID problems.  About one-third of the population of Americans is still not getting jabbed despite the endless propaganda.  How many on the pro COVID vaccine side (or the pro mandate side) will genuinely ask another person why they don’t want the vaccine and listen to their rationale?

Again, there is a lack of curiosity.  Some of it is on purpose.  Some of it is just plain ignorance.  Some of it is evil.  Some of it is just finding it easier to not ask any questions.

So there is no clean answer on whether the authoritarians are evil or misinformed.  It is a combination of things.