If you follow Austrian school economics, you know that most predictions are impossible to make.  It is no coincidence that Mises’ most famous work was titled Human Action.  The very fact that humans act freely makes most things impossible to predict.

Still, we can use the information that we have, along with knowing how incentives work for people, and we can make some good guesses about the future.

Some things are trickier than others.  It is a near certainty that Biden and Fauci are not going to be declaring themselves to be libertarians tomorrow morning.  It is a bit less certain that Trump and Biden will be running for the presidency in 2024.

Politics

The one prediction I feel good about making is that the Republicans will take back the majority in Congress in both the House and the Senate.  I think the left has overplayed their hand, especially when it comes to the virus and cultural issues.

The Democrats, and some Republicans, are obsessing about vaccine mandates and the anniversary of January 6.  Most people don’t really care about what happened on January 6, 2021.  They don’t see it as relevant to their lives.  They know that “American democracy” was not in a serious threat.  They care more about the food prices when they go to the store.

People do care about the vaccine mandates.  There is probably nobody on this planet who would quit their job because their employer is not forcing vaccination.  There are millions of people who will quit their job or be fired because their employer will force vaccination to remain an employee.

In other words, this issue will only fire up the people who are deeply impacted by it.  Those are the people who don’t want to get jabbed.  They know that it is mostly the tyrants on the left who are pushing for the vaccine mandates.  None of these people will be voting for a Democrat.

Biden continues to act like a tyrant, and he is deeply unpopular.  Harris is no better.  With price inflation raging, the voters are going to take it out on the Democrats in November 2022, as well they should.

I do not hold any great hope for the Republicans in Congress, but at least it will provide some gridlock.  It won’t gridlock the spending and some of the worst elements of the federal government, but it will hopefully at least pull back the edicts coming from Biden.

Some Republicans like Liz Cheney may find themselves in trouble too.  Maybe this is just wishful thinking, but some of the ones who have sided with Democrats over the last year may find themselves primaried.

Beyond 2022, I doubt we are going to see a Biden and Trump rematch in 2024.  Biden is deeply unpopular.  He is also old, and he acts older.  Trump is old, but he acts younger than his age.  Trump has energy.

I don’t think Biden will run again.  If his wife doesn’t make sure of it, then the Democratic Party establishment will.

Trump may run again, but there is no guarantee he will win the nomination.  He keeps obsessing over his great vaccines, while almost half of his supporters want nothing to do with them.  Meanwhile, the Omicron variant (if it really is a variant and not just another version of the common cold) is making it obvious that the COVID vaccines are ineffective.

Trump says he is against the mandates as an after thought.  But he will go on and on about Operation Warp Speed.  It was an operation warp speed to fund the vaccine companies and to force medical experiments on a mass scale.

I feel like Trump has lost his way.  Even on the January 6 events, he doesn’t go to bat for the way the political prisoners are being treated.  Most of these people were duped, and they are guilty of no more than trespassing.  But Trump just talks about how the election was stolen.  He is more concerned about his own ego than going to bat for his followers.  This is starting to show to his own followers.  If Trump doesn’t straighten up, he is going to become less popular with his base.

Vaccine Mandates

The U.S. Supreme Court is hearing at least two cases.  These cases are extremely important and will likely set a precedent for other scenarios.  There are 6 judges on the court who are Republican appointees.  I think Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh (in that order) are likely to favor striking down the vaccine mandates.  Barrett and Roberts are a little less certain.  These may not be black and white decisions either.

If these get struck down, then I think all of the federal mandates will be gone in short order.  That would be a major victory.  A favorable Supreme Court decision does not mean that local mandates will be gone.  Places like New York City and Chicago will keep the mandates.  If you are a resident in these places, consider the ramifications carefully.

If the Supreme Court does not strike down these mandates, we will see major chaos.  There will be millions of people who lose their jobs.  It will have dramatic effects on personal liberty and the economy.

The reason there haven’t been massive protests in the U.S. similar to Europe is because things aren’t as bad here.  If these vaccine mandates stick, expect to see millions of people disobey.  It will be their number one issue by far, and they will seek revenge on the tyrants.  It will make 2022 worse than the previous two years for almost everybody.

Investments

I have no idea.

I can’t even begin to predict whether the mania will continue, or if this will be the year when the Everything Bubble finally starts to pop.

I am cheating on this prediction because we are already a week into the new year.  Bitcoin and other so-called cryptocurrencies are falling.

Stocks have been volatile, but the indexes are still near all-time highs.

I can only caution you here.  The bull market may continue, but is the reward worth the risk?

I know the critics will say that those of us warning about a potential crash have been wrong.  But unless someone is telling you to short the market, it isn’t necessarily wrong to warn others about the reality.

In 2021, you would have been better off in stocks than in cash or gold or bonds.  But it doesn’t mean it was wrong of anyone to not be heavily invested in stocks.

If you have a homeowners insurance policy and you don’t make any claims, does this make you wrong for having paid the premium on the policy?  I mean, you lost money that you didn’t have to lose.

We go back to human action.  The future is uncertain.  We can’t predict what will happen, so we have to prepare accordingly.

I think the crypto market will eventually collapse, and I don’t use that word lightly.  Bitcoin may or may not be a part of it.  It’s just a question of whether it will happen in 2022.

Real estate is in a massive bubble, but it could keep going if the Fed keeps creating new money out of thin air and keeps interest rates artificially low.

The same goes for stocks.  They are easier to get into and out of as compared to real estate, but they still represent a big risk.

I still advocate a permanent portfolio for diversification and wealth preservation.

The yield curve hasn’t been inverted since 2019.  We saw a very brief recession in March 2020, which is blamed on the virus.  But it was very brief because the Fed had its foot on the accelerator at the start.

It is unclear if we need to see another inverted yield curve before the next recession.  If so, then that recession will not happen in 2022.  But we live in strange times, so anything could happen.

It would not surprise me if the cyrpto market crashes without stocks and real estate going with it, at least initially.

There is always money to be made in any market, but I am extremely bearish on so-called cyrptocurrencies at this point.

I believe gold is the best buy right now, but that is no guarantee that it will finally explode upwards in price this year.

Conclusion

2022 is an important year for liberty.  We either beat back the COVID tyrants, or our liberty will suffer greatly, and perhaps somewhat permanently.

The rest of the world is depending on America.  Many of the other first-world countries are turning into totalitarian societies.  See Austria and Australia for examples.  Even Canada is really bad.

If America can break out of the COVID tyranny, I think it will set an example for the rest of the world to break free.

I am very pessimistic at times, while I am very optimistic at other times.  We are fighting great tyranny, but at the same time it is clear that many people have shifted their opinions and see the federal government as largely evil.

More and more people are withdrawing their consent.  It is setting a foundation for greater liberty in the future.  We just have to get through this very hard time.

2021 just ended, and it is the start of a new year.  It is a time for people to set resolutions and to take stock of things in their life.

There is nothing magical about the start of a new calendar year, but if it helps us step back and look at the important things in our lives, then we should embrace it.

For New Year’s resolutions, I like to stress that the actions are more important than the results.  You shouldn’t have a resolution to lose 15 pounds.  It is a better resolution to have a contract with yourself that you will, say, exercise at least three times per week, or that you will eat at least two servings of vegetables every day.

The same goes for any other resolutions, including your finances.  The reason actions are important is because you can’t always control the results.  You could say that I want to get a significant raise at my job this year, but what if your boss isn’t in the mood, or your company doesn’t have the money, or we hit a hard recession and it just isn’t possible?  It is better to commit to specific actions that will lead to higher productivity and being a great help to your company.

With personal finances, there are many things we can’t always directly control, including income.  We can’t control the return on our investments, especially if those investments include stocks or other assets that can go up or down in value.  We can’t always control our expenses, as sometimes there are surprise expenses.

We can control what we can control.  We can control how much we go out to eat, how many subscriptions we have for movies and shows, and what car we drive.

We can generally control how much money is directed towards a retirement account or an HSA account, assuming that there is enough left over to pay the bills.

Maybe there are other small specific things that can be done too.  Personally, I have noticed that my cable/ internet bill has crept up.  I probably need to call (which, admittedly, is a little torturous) and find out if I can lower my bill.  Sometimes they will just do it without me giving anything up.  If it saves me 20 dollars per month, it will add up over time.

The big expenses such as the mortgage/ rent and transportation are important to assess when you first get into them.  And sometimes changing some of these big items are necessary.  But for most people, improving their finances will come from making small but not insignificant changes.

Again, if you make a resolution to improve your personal finances, make them specific and actionable steps.

Taking Inventory

I am not good at always doing this, but I think the end of the calendar year is a good time to calculate your net worth.  This should be documented on paper.

The year end is a good time because it is easy to remember, and you will likely have year-end statements for your accounts, which can make it easier.

You should do it line by line for each account.  You don’t have to write out each stock and mutual fund that you own, but you should break it out by accounts.  If you have a 401k and a Roth IRA, these should be separate line items.  You will have a separate line item for different brokerage accounts, bank accounts, and any assets that you own.

If you own a house, I would calculate your net worth with and without your house.  Of course, you should only count the equity in your house (estimated value less the principal balance on the mortgage).

When it comes to other things like a car, it is probably best just not to include it.  While it is certainly better to have a car that is paid off versus a car with a loan, it is typically not significant enough to worry about.  You probably aren’t planning to sell your car and not buy another one.  If you don’t have a loan on it and you aren’t going to get another car any time soon, then you will benefit by not having that expense in the future.

If you own any cryptocurrencies, precious metals, or any kind of collectible that is worth something significant, then these should be included at the approximate year-end value.

Perhaps this all seems to go against what I wrote above – that you should worry more about actions than results.

It is the actions that drive the results.  So you have to make sure you are taking the actions, because that is what is in your control.  But you still have to measure your results from time to time.  If you go over a long period of time and don’t get good results, then you may have to take different actions.

If you go to the gym four times a week but you haven’t lost any weight that you were hoping to lose for the last year, then you probably have to look at your diet and possibly other factors.

If you don’t take action, then there probably isn’t much point at measuring any results.  If you do take action, then you have to measure the results from time to time to see if you need to adjust your actions.  This can be true for weight loss, getting a raise, increasing your net worth, or any number of other things in life.

The start of a new calendar year may be somewhat artificial, but it is a useful time for many to measure their results and to adjust their actions as needed.

Here is to a healthy and prosperous new year.

Unfortunately, going into 2022 we still have to deal with COVID tyranny.  I am fortunate to live in Florida where things are less hysterical, but the threat of presidential edicts continually loom.

With every other president in my lifetime, I didn’t really have to worry much about what was being said or done.  As long as they didn’t start a nuclear war, life went on as normal for most Americans.

To be sure, the federal government has a major impact on our lives and makes us far poorer than we would be otherwise.  But each president is business-as-usual for the most part when it comes to taxes and spending.

Internationally, the president (and his advisors) has had a big impact on foreigners.  When a war is started in Iraq or Syria (to name just a couple), it has a dramatic, and sometimes deadly, impact on those living there.

But domestically, most Americans can just shut off their television and not really pay attention to what the president is doing.  Maybe your taxes will go up or down 1 or 2 percent, but most things just go on as usual.

For all of the Trump hysterics, they just had to turn off the TV, and perhaps social media, and Trump would have been non-existent to them.  He made almost no impact on their lives except to give them emotional stress from his latest Twitter rant.

This is not so for the Biden administration.  You actually have to listen to what is being said or be caught off guard by his latest edict.

You can shut off your TV, but you will still get an email from HR telling you to present your proof of vaccination or else you will be fired, courtesy of Brandon himself.

Earlier this week, I had to find out what was said by the evil duo of Biden and Fauci about domestic air travel.  If they unilaterally decide to ban unvaccinated people on domestic flights, it means that my family may not be able to travel to see some of our family unless we want a really long car ride.

It is all chaos.  The mandates are not only a massive violation of our civil liberties, but they are causing absolute havoc on the businesses that have to deal with them.

Of course, it is easy to not feel sorry for most of these big businesses, but it is still a burden that makes us worse off.  It’s not like these companies can just flick a switch and have their vaccine passport enforcement agency up and running by 9 AM tomorrow morning.  There is a lot that goes into this, including the costs of gathering information and going through exemption requests.

But that’s just the beginning of the chaos, because if it is actually enforced, it means that some people will quit or be fired who otherwise wouldn’t have been.  Many companies already have staffing problems while there are major productivity problems in the economy.

It seems that the Brandon administration will do whatever favors chaos and the destruction of Western Civilization.

And Then There’s Trump

I think most people overestimated Trump’s intelligence.  I know the left says he’s dumb, but I don’t think most people really think that.

George W. Bush is dumb.  He is also evil.  Bush was elected (barely) with the help of the Republican establishment.  Even the corporate media did not attack Bush anywhere near what they did to Trump.

Trump was against the establishment but still managed to win in 2016.  In this sense, he can’t be stupid.  He obviously has some good instincts.  He was very effective at labeling his opponents (Lyin’ Ted, Lil’ Marco, Low-Energy Jeb, Crooked Hillary, etc.).

Trump is considering running again for the 2024 presidential election, but he isn’t reading the tea leaves very well now.  He recently did an interview with Candace Owens.  He seems to be doubling down on the COVID vaccines.

He wants all of the credit for the vaccines, which he says are safe and effective, even though they are neither.  This is at a time when case numbers are hitting their all-time record, even though two-thirds of the population is supposedly vaccinated.

How could they be any more of a failure other than killing off a larger segment of the population due to side effects?  At the start of the rollout, we were never told about the need for booster shots.  We were told that if a majority of people were vaccinated, it would essentially end the pandemic.

But the hysterics – mostly the same ones pushing the vaccines – are terrified due to Omicron.  Shouldn’t this be a non-issue now?  We are about a year into vaccination, and the case numbers are worse than ever.  Maybe you could say that the PCR tests are inaccurate, but I am going by the standard of the hysterics.  The PCR test was therefore unreliable a year ago if that is the excuse.

Despite media claims, it isn’t a clear-cut thing that the vaccine skeptics are all rightwing Republicans.  It is much more nuanced than that.  However, there is certainly a tendency for those questioning the COVID vaccines to more likely be a Trump supporter.

But Trump is having trouble figuring out that something like half of his dedicated base doesn’t want the vaccines that he is pushing.  Trump’s ego is getting in his own way.

Although Trump likes to rail against the media, he also desperately seeks their approval.  He hates that the establishment media is touting the greatness of the vaccines while not giving the credit to Trump and his stupid Operation Warp Speed.  (I could give you anything at warp speed with trillions of dollars at my disposal.)

If Trump were smart, he would be playing it more like Ron DeSantis.  He could say that the vaccine may be beneficial for some people, but you should consult your doctor and make a personal choice.

Trump does say that there should be no mandates, and I do believe that we wouldn’t have these crazy mandates if Trump were still president.  But when Trump spends five minutes touting the greatness of the vaccine with a quick caveat that he doesn’t favor mandates, it makes you wonder whom he is talking to.

Trump is repeating the media lie that this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated.  So Trump thinks they will constantly lie about him, yet they somehow can’t be lying when they say that the hospitals are full of unvaccinated people.

This one issue could actually be the downfall of Trump.  Trump supporters are accused of being some kind of cult and just believing whatever their dear leader says, but this is showing otherwise.  Trump has even been booed at his own events when touting the vaccines and boosters.

If Trump is pushing vaccines that half of his hardcore supporters want nothing to do with, how is this a winning message for Trump?  Some of the big supporters of Trump are already questioning whether they will support him in 2024 because of this one issue.

If Trump is too blind to see the light on this one major issue, how can he effectively lead a movement against the establishment?  I think the answer is clear that he cannot.

I went to the grocery store today.  There were two products in particular in which I noticed price changes.

The first was organic honey.  I believe the price went from $5.99 to $6.99.  I had bought it at the previous price just a few weeks ago.

Now, one dollar doesn’t seem like much, and it really isn’t.  But a one-dollar increase on 6 dollars is 17 percent.  Imagine if the price of everything went up 17% over the course of one year, let alone just a few weeks.

It’s not like I will pay that extra one dollar one time.  I buy honey every couple of weeks.  I might end up paying an extra 20 to 25 dollars per year from this one increase alone.  And that is assuming it won’t go up any more.

I also bought a 20-pack of breadless chicken wings, which I don’t get too often.  The previous price (probably from a few months ago) was $12.99.  They are now $14.99 for the same size package.  That is a 2-dollar increase or 15%.

To be fair, there were many things I bought where I did not notice a price increase from other recent purchases.  But some of those things had already had price increases earlier in the year.

This is very anecdotal, but I expect others see the same thing.  Price inflation can be very subtle, until it’s not.  All of a sudden, you are asking how in the world your grocery bill hit $200.

The government’s own numbers are showing a pickup in price inflation, although they may be understated.  What really matters though is what people are actually experiencing.

As I previously pointed out, price inflation is running near 7%, but most people in corporate America aren’t going to see a 7% or more annual increase unless it is associated with a promotion and more responsibility.  I’m sure there are a few exceptions to that, but many people will see a nominal wage increase with a real wage decline due to the decline in purchasing power.

Middle class America has already been through the wringer, especially in 2020 and 2021 with lockdowns, vaccine mandates, and all of the other crazy restrictions.  Now we get to contend with much higher prices and a likely decline in living standards, at least in the short run.

The good news is that more people are recognizing the problem of inflation and government spending.  I think a substantial minority of the population knows that the Fed is somehow at least partially culpable in all of this.

The Fed may finally be forced to stop creating money out of thin air and supporting the financial markets.  While this may be bad news for people holding stocks and certain other assets, it will be positive if it means that the Fed will have to stop its monetary inflation, at least for a while.  Perhaps we will see a major correction and a reallocation of resources more in accordance with consumer demands.

If the Fed doesn’t do more damage, we could see a correction in prices once consumer demand goes down.  The correction will be painful, and perhaps quite severe, but we need to have a reallocation of resources, and we need for a proper market interest rate that encourages real savings.

This is ultimately what will lift the living standards for middle class America.

The current spending and inflation is unsustainable.  Something has to give at some point.  It may feel like a boom time to a lot of people, but I believe there is a lot of struggle that is being overlooked.  The stock market doesn’t reflect the state of middle class America.

The stock market also won’t necessarily reflect the state of middle class America when it starts crashing.

Whether you celebrate Christmas as a religious holiday, or it is an opportunity for the kids to get gifts from Santa, there is no question that it is a special time of year for many.

At the same time, there is a lot of pressure and stress that comes with Christmas time.  It is supposed to be a time of joy and love, yet it turns into anxiety and work.  In some ways, it would be easier to only celebrate it as a religious holiday and not engage in the gift giving and, for some, traveling.

I write this as someone who experiences these emotions at times.  It is stressful getting everything done and making sure that everything is just so.  Sometimes life is easier when you set low expectations.

I have to remind myself to step back and take in the positive things and the good things that go along with Christmas.  We look at lights as a family, and play Christmas music when driving.

I write a lot about liberty, and sometimes we forget to exercise the liberty that we have.  Sometimes that is as simple as enjoying our material wealth while spending time with family.  We don’t have to go out and hunt for our own food, and we can buy gifts for others even if times are tight.

Sometimes I see liberty advocates who are just miserable people to be around, which actually works against spreading the message of liberty.  If you are trying to convince someone to be more sympathetic to your pro liberty views, it isn’t going to work if you are seen as a miserable person.

I also think of Harry Browne’s classic book How I Found Freedom in an Unfree World.  Sometimes we box ourselves in by our own choices.  We are complaining about our liberty being taken away by the government while we don’t celebrate the many ways in which we are free.

I like to remind others (and myself) once in a while to set some time aside to laugh and to love.  Enjoy the good things that life has to offer, and don’t always focus on the things we don’t have.

Merry Christmas!

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.”  ~ Upton Sinclair

Those who favor liberty understand the great damage being imposed by authoritarians.  But there is a big question of whether the authoritarians are just plain evil, or if they are misinformed.

I used to ponder this question when it came to basic economic issues like the minimum wage.  Do these people not understand basic economics, or are they just demagogues who will promote a bad policy for the sake of their own power?

The minimum wage seems a little less important these days.  First, the massive monetary inflation from the Fed is actually making the minimum wage laws less and less relevant as time goes on, unless we see new minimum wages imposed.

Second, when people are being ordered to take a government needle in the arm or lose their job, or they are being ordered to stay at home unless they are deemed essential, it makes the minimum wage issue seem rather mundane.

It is important to distinguish between the authoritarians.  There are the authoritarians who actually have power (politicians, bureaucrats, those with money and influence, and even corporate executives to some degree).  It is hard not to include those with money and corporate executives these days.  In a free market, they should be able to do what they want peacefully.  The problem is that they are intertwined with government policy.  Think Bill Gates.  Also think corporate media and social media executives who perform the censorship for the government.

There are also authoritarians who simply have little power other than their little voice.  They support the authoritarians who are in power.  I don’t think most of these people are evil, although even here it is somewhat nuanced.  If someone has a salary or a position of prestige that may be threatened by more liberty, then the person may knowingly argue for the more authoritarian position even knowing that it isn’t right.

Or more common, the person will use justifications to bury his head in the sand.

It is easy to see this today with doctors and COVID.  I’m sure there are many doctors who suspect that the treatment (or lack of treatment) protocols are wrong, or at least could be better.  But they purposely have no curiosity.  They don’t want to do their own independent research or listen to an alternative viewpoint because, deep down inside, they are afraid what they might learn.  Then they would have to make a moral choice of continuing with the system (and killing more people) or speaking out against the system and jeopardizing their career.

This is especially hard for a doctor whose life and well-being is contingent on his profession.  He likely spent a lot of money, a lot of time, and a lot of hard work going through medical school.  Why would he be a martyr for the cause, especially when it will likely make no difference?  Why would he give up his entire career and his reputation to make a point?

Of course, there is a difference between saying nothing and actually cheering on the authoritarians with power.

In 2020 and 2021, it has been very difficult for people who don’t like confrontation.  They are accustomed to just going along.  But some people were forced to make hard choices since COVID-19 hysteria appeared.  They have almost been forced to take a stand one way or another.

I shop at Publix, a chain grocery store.  I never once wore a mask in there.  There were a couple of times when I think I was the only person in the store not wearing one.  I know there were others who thought it was stupid to wear a mask, but they conformed because they don’t want confrontation.  (I never had any confrontation there anyway, and the employees were always really nice.)

When it comes to the authoritarians who have little power, it is largely a mix of stupidity and lack of morals.  It is often a combination of both.

And to be sure, it is just stupidity in this one area.  I know many otherwise intelligent people who just believe whatever they are told by Fauci and the establishment media.

Even within the realm of medical care, you can have a brain surgeon who is brilliant at what he does.  Meanwhile, if you start talking about COVID, he just becomes another moron.  He is just “following the science”.

I think the majority are more stupid (in the political arena) than immoral.  They are simply being duped.  The good thing about this is that their minds could possibly be changed.  The hard part is getting them to actually open their minds and consider the fact that they may have been duped.  It obviously isn’t an easy thing to do.

In terms of COVID, the best thing is to just set a good example and live your life normally.  If facts don’t convince them, maybe seeing a bunch of people attending an event without fear will convince them.

The Ruling Elite

The authoritarians who actually have power are a different story.  They tend to be more evil than stupid.

I can tell you that Fauci is not stupid.  He is very crafty with his words.  He is not coming from a good place.  He doesn’t care an ounce about humanity.  He likes the power and prestige.  He likes the money.  He likes exerting power over others.

Even with politicians, bureaucrats, and even media personalities, it is still somewhat nuanced.  They aren’t completely evil either, or at least not most of them.  Most of these people have families, although that doesn’t make them good.

There were rumors that Gavin Newsom was injured by his “booster vaccine” in late October.  He canceled a trip and didn’t make any appearances for well over a week.

My first thought was, “Was he actually stupid enough to get the booster shot?  I figured he was just getting a saline injection.”

But if the ruling elite really do think the COVID vaccines are dangerous, I don’t think it would be very many people in on the secret.  I would be surprised if Fauci didn’t get a saline injection.

So maybe Newsom really did get the booster and experienced some kind of temporary paralysis or other symptoms.  This means that perhaps he is dumber than I thought.

But if he really did experience an adverse event, then there is no doubt that he is evil (not that I needed confirmation).  Just the fact that he hid what happened is enough to show that he isn’t a good person.  Worse, he will probably continue to push his vaccine mandates and other destructive policies.

There are some people who just get into politics because they want some prestige, and they may actually want to make a little bit of a difference.  But then the power goes to their head and they can’t help themselves.  They look away from reality and morality.  They aren’t necessarily pure evil, but they have also lost their moral compass if they ever had one.

To be sure, you should never sympathize someone who is taking away your liberty if they are in a position of power.  Even if they aren’t completely evil, they still have to own what they are doing.  They are using initiatory violence or endorsing policies that do so.  They are responsible for their actions.

You can sympathize a bit more with those who just support the authoritarians.  They are also authoritarians, but they don’t have much power.  They are mostly being duped.  We should do everything we can to help them see the light.

At the same time, they are responsible for their own actions as well.  We are trying to show them that they are supporting evil, yet they continue to support that evil.  They show a lack of curiosity in seeing our point of view.  They are not trying to understand our point of view.  They will be skeptical over everything we say, yet not question one word coming from the establishment.  So even here, my sympathy only goes so far.

Also, with COVID, it is a bit different than other issues in the past.  Someone might have said they support the troops so they support some war overseas.  But it didn’t really impact their life.  So there didn’t seem to be much reason to be curious unless there was a concern for the innocent lives overseas.

With the COVID tyranny, there doesn’t seem to be much of an excuse in not being curious and doing some investigating.  I know the corporate media spits out the same narrative, but it is easy enough to find dissenters.  It is easy enough to find alternative points of view.

The official narrative now is to blame the unvaxxed for all of the COVID problems.  About one-third of the population of Americans is still not getting jabbed despite the endless propaganda.  How many on the pro COVID vaccine side (or the pro mandate side) will genuinely ask another person why they don’t want the vaccine and listen to their rationale?

Again, there is a lack of curiosity.  Some of it is on purpose.  Some of it is just plain ignorance.  Some of it is evil.  Some of it is just finding it easier to not ask any questions.

So there is no clean answer on whether the authoritarians are evil or misinformed.  It is a combination of things.

The FOMC released its latest monetary policy statement on December 15, 2021.  The Fed will increase its taper, while still maintaining its target interest rate near zero.

The increased taper just means that the Fed will increase its balance sheet at a slower pace.  It is decelerating the pace of monetary inflation.  If it continues on this path, then its current quantitative easing (or whatever term they’re using) should come to an end in the spring of 2022.

Jerome Powell said it wasn’t appropriate to change its federal funds target rate until the balance sheet expansion is over.  In other words, once the Fed stops inflating, then it might slowly increase interest rates.

Also interesting is that Powell said the Fed is no longer shooting for price inflation over 2%.  If that’s the case, then they should probably be slamming on the brakes faster than they are now.

Since the CPI is at almost 7% year-over-year, the Fed should probably stop all monetary inflation right now if they want to bring it back to 2%.

Of course, the Fed has to balance its concern of higher inflation with trashing the economic boom.  If they are too aggressive in stopping inflation, we could see a quick popping of the Everything Bubble.

This is presumably why the Fed is speeding up its taper while not stopping its monetary inflation completely at once.  They didn’t want to spook the markets.

Stocks went up after the Fed decision, while gold went down.  But things reversed on Thursday with gold going up and a more mixed stock market.  The Nasdaq was down big on Thursday.

While stocks have been somewhat volatile lately, they are still somewhat holding up.  The indexes still aren’t that far from all-time highs, even with the volatility.

We may not see the big crash of the Everything Bubble until we see an inverted yield curve.  In order for this to happen, we are going to have to see short-term rates go up a bit.  It is hard to have an inverted yield curve when short-term rates are near zero.

If and when we get an inverted yield curve, it will still take some time.  There is some lag between this and when the downturn actually happens.  So we could still be a couple of years out from a major downturn.

As I’ve said before, it is especially hard to tell right now because we did have an inverted yield curve in 2019.  The very brief recession (if you call it that) that came on in March 2020 is blamed strictly on COVID and the lockdowns.  And the Fed started creating new money like crazy before the downturn even happened.

So it is impossible to say if we need another inverted yield curve in order to see the next recession.  But if we do, then we’ll have to wait a couple of years.

This isn’t to say that stocks will keep roaring.  It’s also not to say that some sectors won’t see a major fall.

I am starting to think that so-called cryptocurrencies will be the canary in the coalmine.  These are the ultimate speculation of the last few years, and I think they could easily fall before stocks and real estate fall.

They may all go down in tandem, but it wouldn’t surprise me if cryptocurrencies lead the way and precede the fall in the big asset classes.

I don’t recommend any heavy shorts against stocks right now, as there might still be legs to run this bull market a bit farther.  I am not heavily betting on stocks right now, but I am also not heavily betting against them.

If we get an inverted yield curve in 2022, then I will consider taking some bets against stocks.

Alan Greenspan is currently 95 years old.  He was chairman of the Federal Reserve (the Fed) from 1987 to 2006.  He once wrote a great essay on gold and economic freedom, which was published by Ayn Rand.

During his time as Fed chair, Greenspan largely sold out to the establishment.  Or maybe he sought to be part of the establishment all along and just went along with Ayn Rand when it was convenient.

When Ron Paul was in Congress, he used to enjoy questioning Greenspan.  One time, Greenspan said something to the effect that the Fed had advanced to where it could almost mimic the gold standard.

Just last year, Greenspan warned about growing debt and inflation, so it’s not clear how this is consistent with his previous statements.

Greenspan also signed his essay for Ron Paul one time and said he stands by every word, yet it is completely inconsistent with his actions as Fed chair.

Perhaps Greenspan is correct that the Fed could somewhat mimic a gold standard.  The problem is that it won’t.

You could also say that Congress could balance the budget.  But given the opportunity for power, it is unlikely to ever do so again except perhaps when forced to by the laws of economics.

You have to wonder if Greenspan would still make these comments about the Fed being able to mimic the gold standard.  With the explosion in the Fed’s balance sheet and the official CPI numbers getting closer to double digits, I would like to ask Greenspan the following:  How’s that working out for you?

Well, it’s working ok for Greenspan, but how is it working out for middle class America?  Most people aren’t getting annual raises at their corporate job in the neighborhood of 7%.

A Major Reason to Criticize the Central Bank

There are many reasons to criticize a central bank, or in this case, the Fed.  The Fed cannot properly allocate resources.  The Fed’s monetary inflation redistributes wealth and is immoral.  The Fed can’t know the proper price of money or the interest rate.  Only the free market can properly allocate capital in accordance with consumer demands.

With all of that said, one of the biggest reasons to criticize the Fed is the same reason libertarians criticize politicians and bureaucrats.  The problem is that the power will not be used for the good of the people or for the stated intentions.

Or as Harry Browne liked to say: The problem isn’t the abuse of power; it’s the power to abuse.

Again, the Fed could try to mimic the gold standard.  If it did, things would probably be pretty good.  I would contend that it is impossible to mimic what the free market would have done, but maybe the experts could get somewhat close.  We could probably go along with a very mild inflation rate where the money supply grows at a rate that is close to the overall economy (not that this is necessary).  We might even see some mild price deflation if this happened.

But this isn’t going to happen because it is politicians and bureaucrats in charge.  They have favors to do.  They have bailouts to give.  They have deficit spending to finance.  They have many promises to make.

The Fed isn’t going to restrain itself any more than politicians in Congress restrain themselves.  It’s not that they are all pure evil, but they tend to have a bias in doing things that benefit themselves and those close to them.

In other words, this statement Greenspan made many years ago about the Fed being able to mimic a gold standard is completely naïve at best.

When you give monopoly power over the money supply to an institution, you should probably expect that the institution won’t have the noblest of intentions.

Even if Greenspan was a great Fed chair (he wasn’t) and was really looking out for the good of the people, it doesn’t mean that every Fed chair and Fed member will be this way from now until the end of time.

This is why inflation is the natural state of the world when we have central banking.  They can’t help themselves, just as Congress can’t help but continue massive spending.

As long as we have central banks that have a monopoly over money, we will continue to see inflation.  There may be brief periods of deflation because the central bank overdid things, but we always return to a state of inflation.  Prices rise and the purchasing power of the money goes down.

The latest consumer price index (CPI) numbers were released for November 2021.  The CPI went up 0.8% for November and now stands at 6.8% year-over-year.

The less volatile median CPI went up as well.  It increased 0.5% for the month of November.  Year-over-year, the median CPI is now up 3.5%.

If you take the CPI just from the last 6 months, the picture is even worse.  Annualized, it would exceed 7 percent.

Here is a bit of a rhetorical question.  When you get your annual raise at work, are you getting 7% or more?

My guess is that most people in the corporate world are not getting 7% unless it involves a promotion.  So it isn’t much of a cost-of-living raise since most people make less.  If you get a 5% raise with 7% price inflation, you are losing money.

If you actually do get a 7% raise (most don’t), then you are still behind because you pay taxes on the additional amount.  So you may actually need a 9 or 10 percent raise at your job in order to pay the taxes and keep up with the 7% cost-of-living increase.

Oh, and that doesn’t give you anything extra for your work experience.  Does it make sense that someone would make the same amount or less, adjusted for inflation, after working 10 years as compared to after working 5 years?

In some jobs this may make sense, but hopefully in most lines of work the employee becomes more productive as they gain experience.

So if you want to increase your after-tax income adjusted for inflation, then you better be constantly looking for promotions and job changes.  If you are an entrepreneur, you better find a way to deal with the increased costs.

Wall Street Shrugs

But according to the stock traders, inflation doesn’t really matter.  If anything, they prefer higher inflation.  It just means that stock prices can go higher.

The hotter inflation numbers didn’t stifle Wall Street.  The party goes on.  The stock bulls keep winning until they don’t.

With price inflation hitting highs not seen for about 4 decades, it should send signals to the Fed that price inflation is not transitory unless they make it so.  This means that the Fed has to stop creating new money out of thin air.

The Fed announced its beginning of the taper, which means it is now inflating at a slower pace than before.  But it is still inflating.  And the higher CPI numbers don’t seem to be scaring many investors as stocks continue to go up.  They don’t seem to be worried that the Fed might adopt a tight money policy.

There is also little concern that companies will be squeezed on their profits due to higher costs.

There is an economic fallacy that higher costs for businesses can just be passed on to the consumers.  Actually, if someone gets this far in their economic thinking, it is an accomplishment.

It is true to a certain extent that higher costs for businesses will push final consumer prices higher.  But there are limits to this, and higher costs don’t guarantee higher revenues.

If McDonald’s has to start paying $20 per hour in order to retain staff, while also paying more for food, then it will likely have to raise prices in order to be profitable.  But what if most people don’t want to buy a cheeseburger from McDonald’s if it costs them 5 dollars?  It may only be worth it at 2 dollars or less.  For more luxurious items, this is even more true.

In many situations, consumers are willingly paying the higher prices right now.  It is seen as a boom time, and people feel wealthy.  Unfortunately, they probably feel wealthier than they should, as some of it is an illusion.  Thank the Fed and the government for the massive misallocation of resources.

At some point, things will start to break.  Consumers will tighten up.  The acceleration of prices will hopefully retreat, but with it will come major economic pain.  Companies’ profitability – or lack of profitability – will be exposed.  Even the big tech companies aren’t immune to all of this.

We are in an Everything Bubble.  The higher CPI numbers reflect this.  The boom is unsustainable.  When it finally ends, it isn’t going to be pretty.

The other day, I heard Biden proclaim that 6 million new jobs had been created during his time as president.  Is this something that he should take credit for?  Perhaps more important, does it even really matter?

It is common for a president to say that he has created X number of new jobs.  To give a tiny bit of credit to Biden – or more likely his speechwriters – he said “the economy has created 6 million jobs”.

It would have been better to say that businesses and entrepreneurs created new jobs, but at least he didn’t claim direct credit for creating the new jobs.  When the federal government spends trillions of dollars per year, it is pretty easy to create some new jobs (while destroying others).

In my book Free Market Economics Made Easy, Chapter 4 is titled “Let’s Not Create Any Unnecessary New Jobs”.  I point out that the reason we have jobs is because we live in a world of limited resources.  People need to work in order to produce things to consume.

While people need an income in order to buys things and survive (and prosper), the jobs themselves aren’t what gives us prosperity.  It is the production of goods and services that we are able to consume.

There is always work to be done in this world.  If there weren’t work to do, then we would live in a world of unlimited resources, and we would already be wealthy beyond imagination.  But this isn’t reality.  People have to work in order for us to have goods and services to consume.

The goal isn’t to create more jobs.  The goal is to create more goods and services.  The number of new jobs is meaningless.  In a free market, there is always work available to almost anybody who wants to work.  The question just becomes – at what price (wage)?

2021 Exposes the Fallacy

This economic fallacy of job creation has been exposed in 2021 for anyone who gives it a little thought.

Just from personal experience, I see many businesses desperate to hire people.  I have actually seen limited services due to a worker shortage.  There have been some retail stores and restaurants that have had to close down or reduce their open hours due to a lack of staffing.

Of course, these places could hire someone quickly at the right wage.  But a small business or fast food place wouldn’t be able to make a profit if they have to hire a relatively low-skilled worker at, say, $30 per hour.

I have seen McDonald’s advertising to pay as much as $15 per hour in a place that wouldn’t be considered a really high cost-of-living area.  So their value menu isn’t going to be as much of a value as it once was.

The problem in our economy isn’t a lack of jobs.  The problem is a lack of production.  This has hit home in 2020 and 2021.  It doesn’t matter how many jobs there are if there is no toilet paper on the shelves.  It really doesn’t matter how many jobs there are if food isn’t being delivered to the grocery stores.

Employment itself is not what makes us wealthy.  It is the efficient production of goods and services, along with the advancement of technology.  But even with advanced technology, you need production to put it to use.

At the end of Chapter 4 in my book, I write:

“In conclusion, it shouldn’t be a goal to create unnecessary jobs.  It should be a goal to create wealth.  By creating wealth, we are further satisfying our desires.  This increases our standard of living and makes our lives easier and more enjoyable.  Instead of hunting for your food tonight, you can stay at home in air conditioning while surfing the Internet and listening to your favorite music.”

There are many lessons to be learned from 2020 and 2021.  The idea of job creation as a goal has been proven wrong.  It has been made obvious that the key to economic prosperity is production.  In order to consume stuff, the stuff has to be produced first.