The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released its latest statement on monetary policy.  By a unanimous vote, the committee decided to hike its target federal funds rate by 25 basis points (0.25%).

This means that Donald Trump’s recently appointed Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, was in agreement with the decision to raise its key interest rate.  This was widely expected going into the meeting, but it was still noteworthy.

Let’s remember that Trump would call that the previous Fed chair, Jerome Powell, all kinds of names, even though Trump was the one who originally appointed him.  Trump would call him “Too Late” Powell because, according to Trump, Powell was too late in lowering rates.

But hey, at least Powell was lowering rates at one point in the game.  All that Warsh has done during his short time as Fed chair is keep rates the same or hike them.  If Powell was too late, what does that make Warsh, who is moving in the opposite direction?

It seems too early for Trump to fully turn on Warsh, but then again, you never know with Trump.    He has already announced (demanded) that rates should be cut to 1% or less.  He doesn’t want to be “Too Late” Trump in criticizing anyone.  There are all sorts of nicknames we could hear.

Opposite Direction Warsh

Backwards Warsh

Too Tight Warsh

Wishy-Washy Warsh

Too Harsh Warsh

Maybe we’ll get something more straight out of first grade like Big Fat Loser Warsh.

Price Inflation and Monetary Policy

The main reason for the Fed hiking rates is because price inflation has remained stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% goal.  Of course, we shouldn’t want any price inflation.  Why would we want even 2%?  Most people would prefer it if their dollars could buy the same things next year in the same amount.

The CPI numbers had gotten closer to 2%, but then the war against Iran happened.  This has sent oil and gas prices much higher, which contributes to higher price inflation, at least in the short run.  It is notable though that this could ultimately lead to lower prices in other areas if consumers paying more for gasoline cut back in other areas.

It is understandable though to question the Fed’s rate hiking on the basis of higher gas prices caused by war.  This isn’t a monetary phenomenon.  It is a political problem.  It is a problem for consumers paying more for gas.  There is price inflation from previous monetary inflation, but that isn’t the main contributor of the spike in gas prices.

This is why it is ridiculous to have any central planners of the economy.  There are so many moving parts, and no one can come close to understanding them all.

If there are major shortages in gasoline, then we actually want to maintain higher gas prices.  Higher prices provide an incentive for consumers to consume less.  They also provide an incentive for producers to produce more so that they can make more profit.  The solution to high prices is high prices.  In this case, the solution also involves the U.S. leaving the Middle East.

The Economy and Politics

Even as the Fed lowers its target rate, it is still slightly inflating the money supply.  The Fed’s balance sheet is slowly expanding again.  In the past, there has typically been a strong correlation between a tighter money supply and tighter rates.  If the Fed were hiking rates, it was probably shrinking its balance sheet.  Since 2008, this is no longer true.  The Fed largely controls the federal funds rate by paying interest on bank reserves.

This means that even though the Fed hiked its target rate, it may still continue to expand its balance sheet (monetary inflation).

Either way, there is a lot of trouble hanging out there in the economy.  The 10-year yield just briefly hit the 5% mark.  There is great fear of a popping of the AI bubble.  Meanwhile, the average American continues to struggle because of incomes not keeping pace with prices, especially when it comes to necessities.

This war in Iran is deeply unpopular, as it should be.  And it is easily tied to the higher gas prices.  Americans are quite aware of the higher prices every time they have to stop at the gas station and fill their car.

The Republicans are going to pay dearly in the upcoming mid-term elections, as they should.  This isn’t an argument for Democrats.  It is simply recognizing that the Republicans have done a terrible job.  They have given us more spending, more war, and more broken promises.

Trump is already acting like a socialist with his promise of $5,000 checks, his tariffs, his public/ private profit sharing, and all of his other schemes.  Just imagine how socialist and dictatorial he will become if we sink into a major recession.

There could be some really rough times ahead, both politically and economically.  The good news is that a decent percentage of Americans are fed up with both major parties.

Donald Trump thinks so.  His desperation has reached an all-time high as his approval ratings reach all-time lows.

Trump thinks he is still popular because many of his preferred candidates won their primaries.  The problem is that these are Republican primaries.  He is still quite popular strictly within Republican circles.  But we are moving on to the general election.

The Republicans had some kind of convention for the mid-terms, as if anyone really cared other than a few die-hard Republicans.  Trump cared because he got to be in the spotlight yet another time.  But these Republican candidates are in a bad position.

If you are a Republican running in the general election, you don’t want Trump by your side at this point.  Trump’s overall approval rating is just above 30%.  It’s hard to believe it is even that high at this point.  But if a Republican candidate criticizes Trump or even says they don’t want his help campaigning, then they risk the wrath of Trump.  Ask MTG or Massie.

Peak Trump

I think we have passed peak Trump.  Trump has exerted an unbelievable amount of control over the Republican Party.  This is why there should be no excuse making for things like war or massive spending.  For example, Trump could easily make it a priority to get spending under control and force the hands of the Republicans in Congress.  But he doesn’t because he likes the big spending.

It is obvious that the Republicans are going to get destroyed in the mid-term elections.  The Democrats are heavily favored to gain a majority in the House.  There is a good chance they will also gain control of the Senate.

While giving the Democrats more power is a major problem, there will be something good that comes of it.  It will drastically reduce the influence of Trump.  It isn’t just because the Democrats may try to impeach Trump (probably over something stupid instead of starting an immoral and illegal war).

Trump will start to lose influence because there will be a realization, including among Republican politicians, that Trump just isn’t that popular any longer.

Shortly after Trump started his second term in January 2025, his approval rating was above 50%.  About 2 out of every 10 people who previously approved of Trump now disapprove of the job he is doing.  That is highly significant.

Buying Votes

At the lame Republican convention, Trump stated that if the Republicans maintain control over the House and Senate, then all adult Americans would receive a check for $5,000.  Of course, that check would not come from Donald Trump’s bank account.  It would come from the U.S. Treasury.  And the Treasury would only be able to get that money by issuing debt, which will be bought up by the Federal Reserve creating more money out of thin air.

This is a complete act of desperation from Trump.  It is more socialist that what we hear from many of the so-called democratic socialists.

There is also no reason to believe anything that Trump says these days.  I’m sure that $5,000 Trump check will come right after the tariff rebate check and the DOGE check.

It is unbelievable just how blatantly corrupt Trump has become.  It is typical in politics, but it is crazy just how open Trump is about it.

I remember even going back to when I was a teenager and young adult and seeing how politicians (Democrats in particular) would just openly try to buy votes.  I remember people like Dick Gephardt who would say that we need to tax the rich people more and use that money to give to poor people.  This was blatant enough for me.

It was Pedro:  “If you vote for me, all of your wildest dreams will come true.”

Now Trump is Pedro.  Vote for my side, and I will give you $5,000.

More Inflation

The government is already running an annual deficit in the neighborhood of $2 trillion.  This is especially absurd when you think that the stock market is near all-time highs and unemployment is relatively low.  We aren’t in any kind of official recession or financial crisis yet, but the deficits are still enormous.

If Trump actually kept this promise (bribe) and was able to get the Treasury to issue $5,000 checks to Americans, it would cost well in excess of $1 trillion.  It would be purely inflationary.

I mean, I would rather get a $5,000 check rather than have the government start another war or continue a war, but that isn’t the option being given.  Trump wants to continue all of his militarism and mass murder overseas while also going socialist at home.  Should I really be that scared of AOC at this point?

I don’t think anyone believes Trump at this point except for his devoted followers who consistently consume Fox News.

This is a desperate attempt by Trump, and it comes across as that.  It isn’t going to work on anyone, mostly because they don’t believe his empty promises.  Anyone who believes this promise would have voted Republican anyway.

Trump won’t have to break this promise because the Republicans are going to get destroyed in the mid-term elections, just as they deserve.

I recently took a trip with family and wanted to share my experience.  This is not a political piece, but I thought others might find my observations and experiences interesting.

We went to Iceland for one night.  We would have had a tight layover in Iceland, and Icelandair makes it easy to add a stay in Iceland with your flight.  We arrived in the morning (Iceland time) after not having much sleep on the plane.  Despite being tired, we rented a car and made the most of our time there.

We went into Reykjavik for lunch at Subway.  We were hungry and didn’t want to search for places to eat, so that is why we kept it safe for lunch.  After lunch we walked around for a few minutes.  Public restrooms are apparently not a common thing.  And restaurants typically won’t allow you to use their restrooms unless you are a customer.  We found this also to be common in Norway.

We drove the Golden Circle and saw a geyser, waterfalls, and a crater, among other things.  The scenery was absolutely beautiful.  We were fortunate to have a sunny day.

Gullfoss Falls was particularly impressive.  I have been to Niagara Falls before, and Gullfoss was at least comparable in size and beauty.  I had to look it up, and Niagara is bigger, but the falls in Iceland far exceeded my expectations.

Most people speak English in Iceland.  We talked to one man in Subway who spoke English to us.  He spoke Icelandic to the worker.  As if that wasn’t enough, he started speaking French to another group of people there.

My other comment about Iceland is that it is extremely expensive.  We found a place to stay for under $300 for the night.  It was tight, but it was clean and gave us a place to sleep.  It was more of a tiny apartment than a hotel, but it worked.  A typical hotel room will cost you in excess of $500 per night during the summer season.

The food is ridiculously expensive.  It didn’t get much better in Norway, but at least there were cheaper options in Norway.  We met or overheard several couples or families who were spending a week or more in Iceland.  I am not sure how I would feel about doing that.  It would be expensive, but the landscape is beautiful and it changes depending on the region.

Bergen, Norway

We spent six nights in Bergen, Norway, which is on the west coast of Norway.  It is the second biggest city in Norway.  While I haven’t seen Oslo, my guess is that Oslo has a bigger city feel.  Bergen can be busy when the cruise boats are docked, but it still has a quaint feel.

We were extremely lucky with the weather.  There was only one day where it rained most of the day.  We took a fjord cruise on that day, but the rain lightened up enough to get some good pictures.  The guide on the boat said that it rains 275 days out of the year in Bergen.  We had other days where it rained, but it was typically light and didn’t last long.  If you take a trip to Bergen, just know that you should expect rain.

We stayed in the heart of Bergen.  The fish market was only a few minutes walk.  We never needed a car there, which was nice.  There is a light rail train that goes from the airport into Bergen.  The last stop was walking distance to where we stayed.

We went to the top of Mount Floyen twice while we were there.  You can take a little train up the mountain, or you can hike.  We experienced both.

Our highlight day was taking a train into the mountains.  We took a two-hour train ride to Myrdal Station and then walked to a nearby zip line that we had booked.  It was about a mile walk.  We zip lined through the mountains, and it was absolutely gorgeous.  Then we rode bikes (provided as part of the zip line package) through the mountains.  It was mostly downhill.  We went about 18 kilometers until we arrived in the village of Flam.  The bike ride was wonderful because we could stop and take pictures and videos of the mountains and waterfalls.  We then took the Flam Railway back to Myrdal Station.

I would highly recommend doing this for anyone who is capable and up for an adventure.  If not, you can take the Flam Railway and see some of the great views.  But the benefit of biking is that you can stop and take your time.

The Culture

Most of the locals spoke some English.  I think they are used to a lot of tourists from Europe and North America.  You could typically find an English version of a menu.  Sometimes you have to click on the British flag on a kiosk.

Kiosks are quite common in the fast food restaurants.  We ate at both McDonald’s and Burger King because they were cheap (relatively speaking) and convenient options for lunch.  Both places offered an option of gluten-free buns.

We took the light rail one day to a mall where we had Burger King for lunch.  There was one worker back there getting all of the food ready.  He was quite fast and efficient.  I think there were only two people working there.  We ordered using a kiosk, so there was no cashier.

The workers at food places were generally young.  They all seemed to work hard.  They were helpful when asked.  The only business where the customer service wasn’t great on my trip was at the rental car place in Iceland.

The people in Norway are not generally overtly friendly.  We would pass by people hiking and most wouldn’t say a word when passing by.  There were several times I needed help like buying light rail tickets the first time and figuring out the dumpster for our garbage.  Whenever I asked someone for help, they were quite helpful when spoken to.  The workers in the restaurants and stores were typically quite friendly.  There was a juice/ smoothie place I went to multiple times.  One of the guys there remembered my name from two days before.

It is definitely a more homogenous society than what we know in the United States.  I am not saying that as good or bad, but you can see how things can function better with a centralized government.

They seemed to be very obsessed over not using plastic.  Instead of plastic utensils, you get these wooden utensils.  If you buy groceries, sometimes you have to pay extra for a plastic bag.  And when you get a bottle of water or some other drink, the cap stays attached at the top.  You can open it to take a drink, but the cap doesn’t completely come off.

In terms of food, fish is quite popular.  This makes sense since Bergen is on the water and they get fresh fish deliveries.  I also had a reindeer hot dog.  (It wasn’t Rudolph.  It was one of the reindeer that was picking on Rudolph.)  Aside from that, you can find American-type food like hamburgers and pizza.

Conclusion

I would recommend visiting Bergen, Norway.  Again, just expect some rain.  We had a good mix of activity while also enjoying some of the charm of the city.  Whatever you are planning to spend on food, double your budget.

I can’t say as much about Iceland because my time there was short.  It is quite expensive, but the scenery is unique and beautiful.

Six nights in Bergen was just the right amount of time for me.  We alternated our busy days with a more relaxing day.  I would recommend that strategy for most vacations.  You don’t have to constantly be on the go.

There has been a little turmoil in the bond market.  It isn’t just the U.S. bond market, as we have also seen trouble in Japan and even Europe.  But the U.S. bond market is the biggest player.

Yields have risen, although not dramatically.  There has definitely been some intervention on the part of the Treasury and the Fed, but we don’t fully know to what extent.  They are also admitting that there is intervention to come.

Maybe it’s not “admitting” so much as trying to build confidence in the system.  Just announcing  the future purchase of bonds helped to slightly lower interest rates, but it didn’t last long.

It reminds me of the oil market and Iran.  How many times did Trump announce that there was almost a deal or that the conflict would be over soon?  It would drive down the oil price until people realized that oil was still not getting through the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaking of military conflict, Trump was asked by a reporter about the bond market.  Trump said: “We have many types of intervention.  That’s one.  The ultimate intervention is our military.  And if we have to use that, we will.”

WHAT?

I heard the commentators on CNBC just mocking Trump over the comment.  Someone said that the bond traders are dispersed, so you can’t just drop a bomb on a group of people.

Sure, leftist commentators on television often make fun of Trump.  But in this case, it was actually correct to mock him.

Is Trump saying that he is going to use the military against people who sell bonds?  I suppose anything is possible in this second term.

Trump can’t blame Iran for the bond market.  But even if he tried, he has already bombed Iran.

Is Trump talking about China?  He is going to start a war with China because the Chinese central bank is lowering their holdings of U.S. Treasury securities?

Trump has absolutely no idea what he is talking about, and the only thing he knows at this point is how to make threats.

The people around him are a bit more sophisticated, but don’t take that to mean that they will do the right thing.  The U.S. government just surpassed $40 trillion in debt, and there is no slowing down at this point.  The only ultimate solution these people have is to create even more money out of thin air.

Gold and Stocks

This is probably why the price of gold is going up again.  No matter how you interpret this turmoil in the bond market, it almost has to be good for gold.

If there is going to be more bond buybacks, as said by Bessent, how are they going to get the money to do that?  They can only create the money out of thin air.

Is this trouble in the bond market the straw that will break the camel’s back?  Trump and the Congress can only point to themselves in the mirror.  Maybe this wouldn’t be happening if they didn’t spend so much money and rack up so much debt.

The digital money printing may be good for stocks, but it also spells trouble for the overall economy.  A recession obviously wouldn’t be good for stocks in the short run.

I have said that the Fed won’t engage in massive monetary inflation to bail out the stock market, but it will do it for a crisis that threatens the major banks or the bond market.

Well, we already have trouble in the bond market, and we haven’t even hit a recession yet (that we know of).

I have zero confidence in this administration to do the right thing.  They like to speak against the “democratic socialists” when virtually everything this administration does involves some kind of socialism or economic fascism.

If we get a hard recession, we could see the deficit balloon even more than it already has.  This is not sustainable.

The U.S. national debt has surpassed the $40 trillion mark.  At this rate, we might hit $50 trillion by the end of Trump’s term in office.

Never mind that this comes out to about $300,000 per American household.  This national debt doesn’t even account for the massive unfunded liabilities of Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.  Total estimates here range north of $100 trillion.

Meanwhile, interest rates are not near zero any more.  The 30-year yield is above 5%.  The 10-year yield is above 4.5%.  Those interest payments start to add up.

There is a race with federal spending between the military and the interest payments on the national debt.  Trump wants a $1.5 trillion annual military budget.  The ballooning interest payments on the national debt should catch up to that number in no time.

How Much Should a Burrito Cost?

There has been a great debate about the cost of a burrito over the last several weeks.  It originated when someone posted that a burrito shouldn’t cost $20.

We can play a technicality game here and say that a burrito should cost whatever the consumer is willing to pay.  Put another way, a burrito should cost what the market price is.

Of course, this misses the point.  In our world of massive monetary inflation and debt, a burrito should cost $20 because our money has been devalued.  The point of the original post about a $20 burrito is that prices are too high as compared to wages.  We have lost purchasing power because there is too much money in circulation.  The taxes, regulations, and other government interferences don’t help.

It was interesting seeing some of the pushback, which seemed to come from the politically conservative side.  It is really rich when it comes from the rabid war hawks.

They argue that burritos don’t have to cost $20.  Yes, we understand you can go to some places in the country and get a burrito for something like $12 (which is still a lot).  The person who posted about the $20 burrito was simply sharing their own experience.

Then we get the argument that these whiny kids shouldn’t be eating out.  They should be at home making rice and beans, ramen noodles, or whatever relatively cheap food you want to pick.  Aside from the bad health advice, this is a ridiculous argument.

More Freedom, Less War

We should be able to go out and buy a burrito, including younger people.  This is as much money as some people make in an hour (before taxes).

The problem for these “conservative” war hawks is that they need trillions of dollars of our money to fight their precious wars and to run an overseas empire.  Maybe if we weren’t bombing countries all over the planet, we would be paying significantly less for burritos and many other items.

It is interesting that some young people are looking to socialism for the answers.  The problem is that they think we live in a capitalist system.  We live in a very mixed economy.  We have market prices like a $20 burrito, but we don’t have a free market because the government is so involved in almost every aspect of our lives.

The so-called democratic socialists are correct that prices are too high and that something needs to change.  Unfortunately, their solutions are wrong.  Some of the more moderate socialists point to places like Sweden.  But Sweden is also a mixed economy like the U.S.  The difference is that Sweden has slightly more welfare spending while spending less on militarism.

While I would prefer far less government spending overall and for people to be able to keep more of their own money, I would take more at-home welfare spending in exchange for less military spending.

The people who always want more war and militarism shouldn’t be lecturing anyone on economic issues or fiscal conservatism.  If it were up to them, half or more of our money would go towards running an even bigger world empire.

Donald Trump never should have attacked Iran.  It has been by far the biggest mistake, politically speaking, of his presidency.  It is also the most evil thing he has done.

If you look at Trump’s first term, his biggest foreign policy mistakes also had to do with Iran.  He never should have abandoned the JCPOA.  He shouldn’t have assassinated Soleimani.

The Iranians never wanted conflict with the United States.  Trump did the bidding of Netanyahu and the Israeli government.  Previous presidents resisted this pressure, at least enough to not start a war with Iran.

Trump is a war criminal no matter what happens now.  Nothing can change that.  His actions have caused the death of thousands of innocent people in Iran.  He also threatened to destroy their civilization.  Even though he hasn’t yet followed through on that threat, it is still a great act of evil.  How would you feel if the president of China or the president of Russia said that a whole civilization would be destroyed in the coming days, and it happened to be where you live?

With that said, what is the best course that Trump can take from here to minimize any further loss of life?  Also, what can Trump do to get out of this politically?

The Ron Paul Idea

When Ron Paul ran for president and talked about being involved in overseas conflicts, he would say that we marched right in there, and we can march right out of there.  In other words, just bring the troops home.

Ron Paul still says these words to this day.  We can just leave right now.

This isn’t even a thought on Trump’s radar.  He is so stupid that he thinks he has to have some kind of a deal.  He just loves to negotiate.  Unfortunately, he has learned the hard way that you can’t negotiate by bullying if someone is able to fight back.

What Trump loves even more than making deals and negotiating is talking about making deals and negotiating.  This has become his thing.  He thinks it makes him look so smart and wonderful when he can announce a great deal and that we are winning because of his great deal.

But the best option for him at this point is to walk away without a deal.  Yes, the Strait of Hormuz is still fully controlled by Iran.  Let others figure this out.  If the U.S. government withdraws from the region and stops threatening Iran, then others will figure things out.  Iran will probably charge a toll to pass through.  They never did charge a toll before February 2026, but we can’t go back to those days now.  You have to cut your losses.

A Political Exit

If Trump just doesn’t have the intelligence or the humbleness to walk away without a “deal”, then he has other options.  He could return to the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), which is probably worse than just walking away.

We don’t know where $300 billion in reparations is going to come from, and Iran still maintains the right to charge a toll through the Strait of Hormuz.  But Trump can make his claim that we are making sure that Iran doesn’t get a nuclear weapon, even though that was never really a valid issue in the first place.

As part of the MoU, Trump is supposed to stop making threats towards Iran.  It might literally be impossible for Trump to do this as long as he is alive.  Trump’s ego is getting in the way of success, but it wouldn’t be the first time.

Trump could return to the MoU, which is similar to the JCPOA except that Iran gets $300 billion or more in money, plus control over the Strait of Hormuz.  As absurd as this is, this is probably our best realistic chance for something of a lasting peace at this point.

So, let’s hope Trump makes his grand deal, declares victory, and stops bombing Iran.  Then he has to do the hard part and keep his mouth shut.  Either way, he will never have a 50% approval rating again.  He probably can’t even get back to 40% at this point.

It is possible to just walk away from this conflict that never should have been started.  Trump is probably not a good enough person or smart enough person to do such a thing.

• We are one and a half years into the second Donald Trump presidency.  His approval ratings are at 30%.  It’s amazing that 3 out of 10 Americans actually approve of the job he is doing.  Still, he was over 50% approval when he started out in early 2025.  That means that 2 out of every 10 people in this country have shifted from generally approving of Trump to disapproving of Trump.  He has lost the whole game.  All he has left is his authoritarianism and those who will listen to him.  He can still do a lot of damage without the consent of the people.

• Anthony Fauci is the face of COVID authoritarianism, but let’s remember that Trump kept him on the job throughout the end of his first term.

• Stephen A. Smith, the loudmouth sports (and political) commentator, recently issued an apology to Kyrie Irving for criticizing him for not taking the COVID jab.  I genuinely don’t know if this was a sincere apology or if he is just reading the room for a presidential run.  Maybe it’s both.

• What if Kevin Warsh and the Fed decide to hike interest rates at their next policy meeting?  Trump criticized Jerome Powell (to say the least) for being “too late” in lowering interest rates.  If Warsh votes to hike rates, shouldn’t this make him far worse in Trump’s book?  Of course, Trump just appointed Warsh, and most of what he says and does doesn’t make sense these days.

• Prior to the U.S./ Israel attack on Iran in February 2026, there was no reason to believe that Iranian officials wanted to get nuclear weapons.  They probably have more motivation now than ever before to get nuclear weapons.  Prior to the attack, the Strait of Hormuz was wide open without any tolls.  Now, the Iranians fully control the Strait and will probably charge tolls for a long time to come if it is open at all.  If this is winning, then I am tired of winning.

• The U.S. national debt will hit $40 trillion soon.  This seems to have no impact on the stock market.  If anything, investors like the fact that there will have to be more money creation out of thin air.

• The U.S. government is now spending over $7 trillion per year.  That is over $20,000 per year for every single person.  It is over $50,000 per household.  This doesn’t include state and local spending.  Are you getting $50,000 worth of benefits from the federal government every single year?

• The Republicans should get destroyed in the mid-term elections, just as they deserve.  They put war and special interests far ahead of the American people.  But don’t underestimate the stupidity and evil of the Democratic Party.  They still think Fauci is a hero.

• The establishment media likes to make a big deal that cases for measles have risen.  They want to blame this on RFK Jr., even though he hasn’t banned any vaccines.  Kennedy and others in the MAHA movement need to stop fighting in defensive mode.  What is the problem with getting the measles?  Death from the measles is very rare, and when it does happen, it is usually because of mistreatment or some other underlying issue.  We have seen massive increases in cancer, diabetes, autoimmune diseases, and so many other things over the last several decades, yet the media is going to dwell on something that is barely a threat to anyone.  What if getting the measles and other childhood illnesses help fight off the more serious diseases later in life?  Perhaps the biggest danger of some vaccines is that they are preventing the body from getting a minor disease that properly develops the body to fight more serious diseases.

• For the hardcore democratic socialists out there, how far are you willing to take your agenda?  In your perfect world, would someone be able to own their own toothbrush?

• Envy can be a very dangerous thing.  If you see someone successful (through honest means), you are in a bad place if you are simply trying to tear that person down for being successful.  If you listen to some of these so-called democratic socialists, the end goal often isn’t to make poor people wealthier.  The end goal is to actually tear down those with wealth.

The Federal Open Market Committee released its latest statement on monetary policy.  The Fed will keep its target rate unchanged, in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.  The vote was 9 – 3.  The 3 dissenting votes wanted to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.

Typically, when the FOMC has a meeting with an announcement of its policy, the market knows what is going to happen.  In some ways, the Fed actually follows market expectations.  It was not as clear cut for this latest meeting.

Just the fact that there were three dissenters and nobody favored a rate cut tells us that Fed officials are concerned about the continued elevated price inflation.

Let’s remember that it wasn’t long ago that Trump was criticizing “Too Late” Powell for not lowering interest rates.  The Trump lackeys that were appointed were favoring lower rates.  Yet, now they are not favoring lower rates.  This means they would have clearly been wrong (according to their own standard) if rates had been lowered earlier this year.

It is also funny that Kevin Warsh feels the need to say that the Fed will do everything necessary to fight inflation (while still inflating) and saying that the Fed is not accepting price inflation above 2%.  Warsh is trying to get some confidence back in the U.S. dollar.  But if Warsh really wants to bring confidence back to the U.S. dollar, he should stop inflating the money supply, and he should tell the government to get spending under control and to stop running massive deficits.

Meanwhile, Trump is holding his fire on the new Fed chair that he just appointed.  Trump will come up with some nickname for Warsh when the economy goes bad.  Trump will blame anyone but himself, even though he appoints the people that he later turns on.

Market Reaction

U.S. stocks took a big hit on the day.  But it is noteworthy that the markets were already down before the Fed announcement.  They actually started to come back immediately after the FOMC announcement, but then went to new lows later in the afternoon.

Gold and silver finished the day higher, although the metals have taken a beating over the last several months.

Perhaps the most notable thing was bond yields.  The 10-year yield finished the day at 4.67%.  The 30-year yield hit 5.20%.  Short-term rates actually fell a little bit.

The yield curve that was inverted in 2023 and 2024 is no longer.  It has mostly normalized in the sense that long-term rates are higher than short-term rates.  Inverted yield curves have typically been a predictor of recessions after the yield curve normalizes.

While many Americans feel like they are in a recession because their wages aren’t keeping up with their expenses, we have not yet entered an official recession.  Unemployment is still relatively low, and stock indexes are near all-time highs.

Recession?

Has the yield curve as a recession predictor failed this time?  If it hasn’t failed, then we should be seeing a recession soon.

If we hit a deep recession, who knows how the Fed will react if price inflation is still above 2%?  The Fed will bail out the major financial institutions and the bond market if necessary, just as it always has.  The Fed will not bail out the stock market by itself.

If we get a deep recession, we can only imagine the executive orders (dictates) coming from Trump.  He will try more tariffs and come up with a bunch of other socialist schemes while trying to blame the so-called Democratic socialists.  Meanwhile, the left will blame it all on free market capitalism.

It’s good to be a libertarian and understand free market economics, but sometimes it would be easier to live in a state of naivety.  

There was an article published on July 7, 2026 with the title “Average new car payment reaches all-time high as affordability issues persist”.

Auto loan debt rose 57.3% from a decade earlier, but we have had a lot of money creation at the Fed to account for.

The stunning part for me was that the average monthly car payment is now a record $770 per month.  This is unbelievable.  That is around what my mortgage payment is if you don’t count insurance and taxes.

This is the average, so it would be swayed higher by really expensive car payments.  Still, it is not like there are a lot of Lamborghinis out there driving up the average.  The median car payment is probably not all that much lower than this amount.

Average monthly payments for a used car now stands at $531.  This is quite a staggering amount for vehicles that are already used and some of which don’t even have a warranty or may have a very limited warranty.

To be fair, this doesn’t account for people who just pay cash for a car.  But these tend to be the people who are in good shape financially.  And this leads to the bleak picture of those who are getting big car loans.

Sub-Prime

The article points out that “nonprime borrowers” – those with a credit score in the range of 601 to 660 – account for the group with the highest average auto payment of $811 per month.

Sub-prime borrowers (credit score of 501 to 600) are not far behind this group with an average of $792.

Meanwhile, the super-prime borrowers (781 to 850) had the lowest monthly payment of $753.

This tells us several things.  First, even though we are in a really tough economy, and we can place that blame on the government and central bank, we still have to acknowledge that some people are in the position they are in because of bad choices.

Most people just need a car to get from A to B.  Maybe some construction workers need a big pickup truck.  Maybe some people need a nice car if they have to drive clients around.  But for the majority of people, they just need the transportation.

It is ridiculous that someone with bad credit would be buying a car that requires a monthly payment in the neighborhood of $800 per month.  You can still buy a new car for under $25,000, although there aren’t a lot of them these days.  It is quite realistic to buy a new car and have a monthly payment under $500.

Another thing these statistics tell us is that there is a large segment of the population that is vulnerable to an economic downturn.  They are already struggling.  If unemployment goes significantly higher, or even if interest rates go higher, some of these people are no longer going to be able to meet their obligations.  If there is any kind of financial crisis like 2008, we are going to see a major spike in defaults.

The Misallocated Economy

The fact that sub-prime borrowers and non-prime borrowers have the highest monthly auto payments is representative of the economy we are in.  The rich get richer, while the poor keep getting buried deeper.

This is, of course, a generalization.  And as discussed, some of this is due to choices.  The people with money keep making good decisions, which is largely the reason they have money in the first place.  The people without money keep making bad decisions.

Still, I can’t help but sense that this is more pronounced than normal.  The economy is working for some Americans, while it is most definitely not working for others.  And even if it is seemingly working for some, most people would be vastly better off if the government were a fraction of its current size and if the Fed kept a relatively stable monetary policy.

The higher car prices, the higher interest rates, and the all-time high monthly payments are representative of this economy.  And for both, something has to give.  The current trajectory is unsustainable.

The average car payments is depressing enough on its own.  Unfortunately, it paints a bigger picture that needs to be addressed.  We need less debt, drastically lower government spending, less government regulation, and a central bank that doesn’t inflate like crazy.  Even better, we could have no central bank and let the market take care of our money and interest rates.

The latest CPI numbers were released for June 2026. The CPI was down 0.4% for the month. This was largely due to the reduction in oil/ gas prices.

The annual CPI now stands at 3.5%, which is still well above the Fed’s supposed target of 2%. The median CPI is at 2.7% year-over-year.

While this is a little bit of welcome news for consumers, there is still a lot to be pessimistic about. The energy prices are largely dependent on what is happening in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Good luck trying to predict anything that is going to happen there. Donald Trump doesn’t know what he’s going to do tomorrow.

The bigger picture with inflation is what the Fed is going to do and how much it will continue to help Congress fund the massive deficits.

Warsh Speaks as a Hawk

It has been surprising how much Kevin Warsh has sounded like a hawk. (It is all relative.)

Warsh will actually say that it is primarily monetary policy that drives inflation over the longer run. Of course, what the Fed does is inflation. It is the Fed that engages in monetary inflation. What Warsh is saying is that it is monetary inflation that ultimately causes price inflation.

Let’s remember that it wasn’t long ago that Trump was heavily criticizing Jerome Powell as Fed chair. He called him “Too Late Powell”, and that was perhaps one of the nicer names.

In terms of rhetoric, Warsh has been much more of a hawk than Powell. Warsh is talking tough about doing everything needed to tame price inflation.

Maybe these are just words. Maybe Warsh and Trump have a quiet agreement. Warsh will talk tough on inflation while keeping a relatively loose monetary policy.

I saw some portions of Warsh getting questioned in the Senate. Most of it was just a political show. I won’t I say don’t care about possible corruption and influence peddling at the Fed, but the whole entity is that. It is an organization that has been given a monopoly power over the money supply of the nation. It was born out of corruption and influence peddling.

The Road Ahead

It’s possible Warsh is serious about getting price inflation back to 2%. We know the Fed isn’t going to pursue price inflation of 0%, even though it should. We know the Fed isn’t going to be abolished any time soon. So, given the alternatives, 2% price inflation sounds nice these days.

The problem is that the government keeps spending money like crazy. The deficit continues to grow, even during a time of relatively low unemployment.

We haven’t seen a prolonged recession in 18 years. It’s hard to say if 2020 was a recession because of the lockdowns. It was also averted because the Fed created massive monetary inflation right from the beginning of the lockdowns, or even a few weeks before.

If we get a recession resembling 2008, we really have no idea how the Fed will react. We can assume that the Fed will not let any major financial institutions fail. We can assume that the Fed will not let the bond market collapse. Other than that, we really don’t know.

I’m not sure why, but I take Warsh a little bit seriously that he wants to get price inflation down. I don’t think Trump is in charge here. The Fed doesn’t want the dollar to sink in foreign markets because it would compromise the power of the U.S. government.

I can envision the Fed actually raising its target interest rate while still gradually increasing its balance sheet. It’s a seemingly contradictory policy, but that hasn’t stopped the Fed before.

Again, if we hit some kind of financial crisis, then all bets are off. For now, I would bet on a somewhat neutral Fed policy to the degree that’s possible. Maybe we’ll see one rate hike. The balance sheet will likely level off with a very gradual increase.