I would be lying if I said that Thomas Massie’s loss in the primary didn’t bother me.  I wish I was writing this article in celebration of a Massie win against the establishment.

I feared that Massie would lose this one.  He was going up against a lot.  There have been allegations that there was voter fraud in this election.  I can’t completely discount the possibility of significant voter fraud, but the more likely explanation is just that an enormous sum of money was spent against Massie while Trump heavily campaigned against him.  Trump is not popular in general with the American people, but he is still highly popular (for some reason) amongst Republicans.

When Trump says that the 2020 election was stolen from him, voter fraud may or may not have made the difference.  But there is no question that the game was rigged against him when you have most of the major establishment media, pop culture, corporations, and even the government itself working against you.

The game was likewise rigged against Massie in this primary.  Ed Gallrein, his empty suit of an opponent who refused to debate, was funded by a few billionaires who care more about Israel than they do about Americans. His campaign was much like Biden in 2020, as he stayed in his theoretical basement.  At least Biden came out to debate.

It’s almost amazing that Massie got 45% of the vote.  It was the most expensive primary in history.  Trump spent more time bashing Massie than he has done with any Democratic congressional candidate.  He even sent Secretary of War Crimes, Pete Hegseth, out on the campaign trail to defeat Massie.  Again, it was completely rigged.

The Good News

If it weren’t for the Republican baby boomers, who sit there dutifully listening to Fox News and repeating the talking points, Massie would have won easily.

I hate to make an optimistic case based on the death of a large group of people, but let’s just say the trend is in our favor.  And we don’t have to wait for an entire generation to die off before we can gain any liberty.

We have to look at gains in liberty like compounding interest.  If you get 2% per year, it doesn’t seem like a lot, but it compounds over time.  Trump and his Israel-first backers had to pour a lot of energy and money into defeating Massie.  Massie still got 45% of the vote in a conservative district.

Also, I have been hearing about how the Trump-backed candidates have been doing well.  Yeah, this is in Republican primaries.  Wait until the general election where the Republicans are going to get destroyed.  It probably won’t happen in Kentucky’s District 4, which is very red, but it will happen in swing districts.

I don’t think I could ever vote for a Democrat, especially for national office, but I would consider making an exception in this case if I lived in District 4 in Kentucky.  It would be hilarious if the Republicans lost this seat.  Unfortunately, it is probably too red for that to happen.

Massie 2028?

There have been calls for Massie to run in 2028.  This could be for Congress, but it could also be for president.  It seems hard to believe that Massie could win the Republican vote for president in 2028 after losing a congressional primary.  But Massie is probably one of the few people at this point that could build a coalition similar to what Trump did in 2024, minus the hardcore war hawks.

If the Republicans get obliterated in the mid-term elections this November, which I fully expect will happen, it might change the views of some Republicans who are still holding on to Trump.

Trump is deeply unpopular outside of the Republican Party at this point.  Candidates are going to have to start distancing themselves for any chance to win in a general election.  And this is with an economy that is still humming along.

Imagine how unpopular Trump will be if price inflation continues to accelerate and we go into a recession or depression.  He might end up with an approval rating somewhere around 20%.

As of right now, Massie would not be able to pull off an upset in a presidential primary.  Let’s give it 2 years and see where we are.

The most important primary race of the year is on May 19, 2026.  It may be the most important Congressional primary of the decade.

The primary election for Kentucky’s 4^th Congressional District is where Thomas Massie is trying to retain his seat.  Massie is a Republican who votes mostly as a libertarian.  His Republican opponent is an establishment plant who won’t debate and won’t do any challenging interviews.

Donald Trump and his Israel-first backers are going “all in” on this race.  They will spend something like $10 million or more to try to oust Massie, which is an astounding amount for any election, let alone a primary.

Some say it is because Massie was the main pusher for releasing the Epstein files.  But it is probably a broader reason than that.  Massie has refused to be bought and paid for by the Israeli lobby.  He opposes war and the reckless spending.  This tells you a lot about where Trump stands.  Trump is expending more resources and energy in trying to defeat Massie than he is in trying to defeat any Democrat.

Therefore, it isn’t Massie’s one vote that bothers Trump and the war hawks so much.  It is the fact that he is calling out what is happening.

The Trump Influence

It has been pointed out that the Trump-backed candidates have generally been winning this year.  And some of those candidates may actually be better on some issues than their opponents.  This seems to point to a lot of influence by Trump, which is true.

Here’s the problem.  These Trump-backed candidates have been winning in Republican primaries.  They aren’t winning in the general election.  Some districts are so red that they will go Republican no matter who is on the ballot.  So, the primaries do matter.

But overall, I believe the Republicans are going to get wiped out in November.  Trump has betrayed his so-called America First agenda.  He has certainly betrayed any mention of bringing greater peace to the world.

Trump is still very popular within the Republican Party.  But that is barely one-third of the voting population.  Most Democrats and independents hate him.  There are libertarians and libertarian-leaning Republicans who voted for Trump in 2024 who don’t like him now because of all of his betrayals.

If you live in a solidly red district and get Trump’s endorsement, then you are likely to win.  But the people who are seeking Trump’s endorsement now are going to be running away from him in the general election.  And they may be running away from him completely in the future.

What’s at Stake?

The primary election is likely to be very close for Massie.  It is possible he may lose even after winning easily in past elections.

If Massie loses, it will show that elections can be bought.  It will show that the establishment media still has a great deal of influence.  It will show that the establishment still has a great deal of control.  Most unfortunate, it will show that a great number of Americans can still be fed propaganda with lies and that it works.

How can someone win a primary election against an incumbent by not debating and not taking any kind of real stand on any issues?  Apparently, it may only take Trump’s endorsement and a whole lot of money.

On the other hand, if Massie wins, it will be a victory for liberty.  It will be a victory for alternative media and against the establishment media.  It will give permission to Republicans in Congress that maybe they can and should start separating themselves from Trump.

Everything about Trump should be repudiated at this point.  He has shown himself to be a total liar and a war criminal.  He is anything but America First.  He is deeply unpopular, as he should be.

Thomas Massie didn’t need this grief.  He could have compromised his principles.  He could have just not pushed so hard on Epstein and toned down some of his criticisms.  But he didn’t.  He actually wants the American people to do better.  He actually has morals and principles, which is why Trump and the establishment oppose him.

I will be watching closely on Tuesday.  Let’s hope that Massie can pull through on this one and deliver a strong defeat to the ruling elite.

The latest consumer price inflation numbers came out.  The CPI was up 0.6% in April and now stands at 3.8% year-over year.  This is the highest it’s been since May 2023.

Before anyone quickly blames the higher price of oil, the CPI less food and energy came in at 0.4% for the month and 2.8% year-over-year.

So, even if you ignore the price of oil from the disastrous war in Iran, consumer price inflation is still running somewhat hot and is above the Fed’s supposed target of 2%.

This isn’t looking good for the Fed.  As I’ve explained in other posts, the price of oil alone shouldn’t drive consumer price inflation higher over a sustained period of time.  With consumers spending more on energy and gasoline, they will be forced to cut back elsewhere.

This could put deflationary pressure on other goods and services, but this is assuming all else remains equal.  The money supply rarely stays the same.

Real Wages

Along with the CPI report came news that the real average hourly wages for workers fell by 0.5% for the month.  Real wages are now down 0.3% on an annual basis.

How’s that for America First?  How’s that for Making America Great Again?

The average American is slightly poorer than one year ago.  And that is going by the government’s own data.

The military-industrial complex has gotten richer with the war in Iran and bombings and conflicts elsewhere. Some of the U.S. energy companies might be benefitting from the higher price of oil.

There are many people who are benefitting from foreign conflicts, higher oil prices, and even higher inflation.  The American people in general?  Not so much.

The average American is struggling while Trump and his war buddies are insisting that bombing Iran was really necessary because they were going to get a nuclear weapon by next weekend.

MAGA Approval

You have to give some credit to those who are still faithfully backing Donald Trump at this point.  They are not afraid to be completely humiliated and look foolish.  They just keep insisting that it is all part of a grand plan to make America great.  Trump is playing 10-D chess at this point, and nobody can understand it.

I’m not sure it would have been possible for someone to have mapped out a worse plan for Trump at the beginning of his second term.

I can just imagine one of his advisors: “Here’s the plan.  We’re going to bomb at least 7 countries in your first year back in office.  We are going to drastically increase spending and the debt even though DOGE will have identified a whole bunch of waste and corruption.  We are going to raise and lower tariffs almost every day and keep the whole business world guessing.  We are going to arrest legal immigrants who are critical of Israel.  And we are going to provoke Iran into destroying our military bases in the Middle East and have Iran control the Strait of Hormuz, even as you threaten to wipe out their whole civilization.  Sound like a plan?”

Maybe Trump will set a record for the lowest approval rating for any president in history.

When his war buddies finally decide to stab him in the back, Trump’s approval rating might get to 20%.  I don’t think the people who voted for him who no longer support him will be returning to his camp.

Trump has completely betrayed America First.  He completely lied any time he talked about bringing peace.  His whole presidency is a giant disaster.  And now we have falling real wages for American workers on top of it all.

The rot didn’t start with Trump, and it won’t end with Trump.  But he will rightly take some of the blame for our economic woes.  Even as we suffer the consequences, at least we can laugh at the downfall of his presidency.

U.S. stocks indexes are at or near all-time highs as the conflict in Iran and around the Middle East enters into the third month.  Stock investors seem to not care too much about what is happening in the Middle East.

The S&P 500 keeps posting record highs.  The Dow is almost back at 50,000.  Pam Bondi won’t have to trouble herself with the Epstein files again.

As I warned after the war against Iran began, war is not necessarily bad for stocks.  If you look back to 2003 with Iraq, it was actually the end of a bear market in stocks.  I’m not saying that war is necessarily good for stocks either, but it doesn’t seem to hurt them as long as the fighting is taking place somewhere far away.

However, I do think that investors are overly bullish here.  The death and destruction in Iran is tragic, but that in itself would not impact investment much in the United States.  But with the conflict, we have a drastic reduction in the supply of oil coming out of the Middle East.

Higher Oil Prices and Stocks

While war itself is inflationary, which can be good for stocks, rising oil prices is not by itself inflationary.  An increase in the supply of money is the inflation.  And the Fed is actually pursuing a slightly tighter monetary policy than it otherwise would have because of the spike in oil prices.

With the higher costs of energy, it actually can have a deflationary effect elsewhere.  If you have to spend 50% more to fill up your car, you might decide not to eat out as much.  You might decide to forego that nice jacket you saw in the store.

If anything, higher oil prices give us a better chance of a recession because it reduces the living standards of most people.  They are forced to save less or cut back in other places.

This can include having less money to buy stocks.  And, of course, it can also hurt businesses that sell services and products where there is reduced demand.

Even if the War Ends

The messages coming out of Trump and his administration are completely erratic.  They are usually untruthful at this point.  One day, we are close to an agreement.  The next day, Trump is threatening to end an entire civilization.  The next day, we are close to an agreement again.

One day, the Strait of Hormuz is supposedly opening up.  The next day, Iran says it is still closed and will stay closed until the U.S. calls an end to the war.

It is funny (in a sick way) that the main goal of the Trump administration now is to open up the Strait of Hormuz.  The Strait was open in February until Trump and Israel started bombing Iran for no legitimate reason.

The market reacts to all of this news and goes up and down, along with oil prices.  But it is kind of ridiculous at this point because almost everything is a lie.  Trump will just make up that we are close to an agreement even when there haven’t been any talks with Iranian officials.

Even if the war ended tomorrow, there has been much damage done.  Iran now controls the Strait of Hormuz and will probably continue to charge a toll to go through.  Even if shipping got back to where it was in the next few months, that is a lot of time to pass for a severe reduction in the flow of oil.

The marketplace is amazing at adjusting to these things, so things could get better in a relatively short amount of time.  But still, how can investors say that we are no worse today (in terms of company profitability) as compared to two months ago?

Stocks vs. the Economy

Again, this is with the best-case scenario with the war ending and the Strait of Hormuz opening up.  What if the conflict gets worse?  What if most of the bombing is over but we still get a closed Strait for the next several months or longer?

If the average price of gas goes to $5 per gallon (and we are getting close), how is that consistent with all-time highs in stock indexes?

The market can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent.  But at some point, reality is going to hit.  Stocks are not a reflection of the overall economy at this point.

If this conflict doesn’t come to an end soon, it will be hard to believe that stocks will keep roaring higher.  Investors are happy right now.  The average American isn’t happy with increased prices at the pump.  There is a disconnect.