There has been a little turmoil in the bond market.  It isn’t just the U.S. bond market, as we have also seen trouble in Japan and even Europe.  But the U.S. bond market is the biggest player.

Yields have risen, although not dramatically.  There has definitely been some intervention on the part of the Treasury and the Fed, but we don’t fully know to what extent.  They are also admitting that there is intervention to come.

Maybe it’s not “admitting” so much as trying to build confidence in the system.  Just announcing  the future purchase of bonds helped to slightly lower interest rates, but it didn’t last long.

It reminds me of the oil market and Iran.  How many times did Trump announce that there was almost a deal or that the conflict would be over soon?  It would drive down the oil price until people realized that oil was still not getting through the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaking of military conflict, Trump was asked by a reporter about the bond market.  Trump said: “We have many types of intervention.  That’s one.  The ultimate intervention is our military.  And if we have to use that, we will.”

WHAT?

I heard the commentators on CNBC just mocking Trump over the comment.  Someone said that the bond traders are dispersed, so you can’t just drop a bomb on a group of people.

Sure, leftist commentators on television often make fun of Trump.  But in this case, it was actually correct to mock him.

Is Trump saying that he is going to use the military against people who sell bonds?  I suppose anything is possible in this second term.

Trump can’t blame Iran for the bond market.  But even if he tried, he has already bombed Iran.

Is Trump talking about China?  He is going to start a war with China because the Chinese central bank is lowering their holdings of U.S. Treasury securities?

Trump has absolutely no idea what he is talking about, and the only thing he knows at this point is how to make threats.

The people around him are a bit more sophisticated, but don’t take that to mean that they will do the right thing.  The U.S. government just surpassed $40 trillion in debt, and there is no slowing down at this point.  The only ultimate solution these people have is to create even more money out of thin air.

Gold and Stocks

This is probably why the price of gold is going up again.  No matter how you interpret this turmoil in the bond market, it almost has to be good for gold.

If there is going to be more bond buybacks, as said by Bessent, how are they going to get the money to do that?  They can only create the money out of thin air.

Is this trouble in the bond market the straw that will break the camel’s back?  Trump and the Congress can only point to themselves in the mirror.  Maybe this wouldn’t be happening if they didn’t spend so much money and rack up so much debt.

The digital money printing may be good for stocks, but it also spells trouble for the overall economy.  A recession obviously wouldn’t be good for stocks in the short run.

I have said that the Fed won’t engage in massive monetary inflation to bail out the stock market, but it will do it for a crisis that threatens the major banks or the bond market.

Well, we already have trouble in the bond market, and we haven’t even hit a recession yet (that we know of).

I have zero confidence in this administration to do the right thing.  They like to speak against the “democratic socialists” when virtually everything this administration does involves some kind of socialism or economic fascism.

If we get a hard recession, we could see the deficit balloon even more than it already has.  This is not sustainable.

The U.S. national debt has surpassed the $40 trillion mark.  At this rate, we might hit $50 trillion by the end of Trump’s term in office.

Never mind that this comes out to about $300,000 per American household.  This national debt doesn’t even account for the massive unfunded liabilities of Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.  Total estimates here range north of $100 trillion.

Meanwhile, interest rates are not near zero any more.  The 30-year yield is above 5%.  The 10-year yield is above 4.5%.  Those interest payments start to add up.

There is a race with federal spending between the military and the interest payments on the national debt.  Trump wants a $1.5 trillion annual military budget.  The ballooning interest payments on the national debt should catch up to that number in no time.

How Much Should a Burrito Cost?

There has been a great debate about the cost of a burrito over the last several weeks.  It originated when someone posted that a burrito shouldn’t cost $20.

We can play a technicality game here and say that a burrito should cost whatever the consumer is willing to pay.  Put another way, a burrito should cost what the market price is.

Of course, this misses the point.  In our world of massive monetary inflation and debt, a burrito should cost $20 because our money has been devalued.  The point of the original post about a $20 burrito is that prices are too high as compared to wages.  We have lost purchasing power because there is too much money in circulation.  The taxes, regulations, and other government interferences don’t help.

It was interesting seeing some of the pushback, which seemed to come from the politically conservative side.  It is really rich when it comes from the rabid war hawks.

They argue that burritos don’t have to cost $20.  Yes, we understand you can go to some places in the country and get a burrito for something like $12 (which is still a lot).  The person who posted about the $20 burrito was simply sharing their own experience.

Then we get the argument that these whiny kids shouldn’t be eating out.  They should be at home making rice and beans, ramen noodles, or whatever relatively cheap food you want to pick.  Aside from the bad health advice, this is a ridiculous argument.

More Freedom, Less War

We should be able to go out and buy a burrito, including younger people.  This is as much money as some people make in an hour (before taxes).

The problem for these “conservative” war hawks is that they need trillions of dollars of our money to fight their precious wars and to run an overseas empire.  Maybe if we weren’t bombing countries all over the planet, we would be paying significantly less for burritos and many other items.

It is interesting that some young people are looking to socialism for the answers.  The problem is that they think we live in a capitalist system.  We live in a very mixed economy.  We have market prices like a $20 burrito, but we don’t have a free market because the government is so involved in almost every aspect of our lives.

The so-called democratic socialists are correct that prices are too high and that something needs to change.  Unfortunately, their solutions are wrong.  Some of the more moderate socialists point to places like Sweden.  But Sweden is also a mixed economy like the U.S.  The difference is that Sweden has slightly more welfare spending while spending less on militarism.

While I would prefer far less government spending overall and for people to be able to keep more of their own money, I would take more at-home welfare spending in exchange for less military spending.

The people who always want more war and militarism shouldn’t be lecturing anyone on economic issues or fiscal conservatism.  If it were up to them, half or more of our money would go towards running an even bigger world empire.

Donald Trump never should have attacked Iran.  It has been by far the biggest mistake, politically speaking, of his presidency.  It is also the most evil thing he has done.

If you look at Trump’s first term, his biggest foreign policy mistakes also had to do with Iran.  He never should have abandoned the JCPOA.  He shouldn’t have assassinated Soleimani.

The Iranians never wanted conflict with the United States.  Trump did the bidding of Netanyahu and the Israeli government.  Previous presidents resisted this pressure, at least enough to not start a war with Iran.

Trump is a war criminal no matter what happens now.  Nothing can change that.  His actions have caused the death of thousands of innocent people in Iran.  He also threatened to destroy their civilization.  Even though he hasn’t yet followed through on that threat, it is still a great act of evil.  How would you feel if the president of China or the president of Russia said that a whole civilization would be destroyed in the coming days, and it happened to be where you live?

With that said, what is the best course that Trump can take from here to minimize any further loss of life?  Also, what can Trump do to get out of this politically?

The Ron Paul Idea

When Ron Paul ran for president and talked about being involved in overseas conflicts, he would say that we marched right in there, and we can march right out of there.  In other words, just bring the troops home.

Ron Paul still says these words to this day.  We can just leave right now.

This isn’t even a thought on Trump’s radar.  He is so stupid that he thinks he has to have some kind of a deal.  He just loves to negotiate.  Unfortunately, he has learned the hard way that you can’t negotiate by bullying if someone is able to fight back.

What Trump loves even more than making deals and negotiating is talking about making deals and negotiating.  This has become his thing.  He thinks it makes him look so smart and wonderful when he can announce a great deal and that we are winning because of his great deal.

But the best option for him at this point is to walk away without a deal.  Yes, the Strait of Hormuz is still fully controlled by Iran.  Let others figure this out.  If the U.S. government withdraws from the region and stops threatening Iran, then others will figure things out.  Iran will probably charge a toll to pass through.  They never did charge a toll before February 2026, but we can’t go back to those days now.  You have to cut your losses.

A Political Exit

If Trump just doesn’t have the intelligence or the humbleness to walk away without a “deal”, then he has other options.  He could return to the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), which is probably worse than just walking away.

We don’t know where $300 billion in reparations is going to come from, and Iran still maintains the right to charge a toll through the Strait of Hormuz.  But Trump can make his claim that we are making sure that Iran doesn’t get a nuclear weapon, even though that was never really a valid issue in the first place.

As part of the MoU, Trump is supposed to stop making threats towards Iran.  It might literally be impossible for Trump to do this as long as he is alive.  Trump’s ego is getting in the way of success, but it wouldn’t be the first time.

Trump could return to the MoU, which is similar to the JCPOA except that Iran gets $300 billion or more in money, plus control over the Strait of Hormuz.  As absurd as this is, this is probably our best realistic chance for something of a lasting peace at this point.

So, let’s hope Trump makes his grand deal, declares victory, and stops bombing Iran.  Then he has to do the hard part and keep his mouth shut.  Either way, he will never have a 50% approval rating again.  He probably can’t even get back to 40% at this point.

It is possible to just walk away from this conflict that never should have been started.  Trump is probably not a good enough person or smart enough person to do such a thing.

• We are one and a half years into the second Donald Trump presidency.  His approval ratings are at 30%.  It’s amazing that 3 out of 10 Americans actually approve of the job he is doing.  Still, he was over 50% approval when he started out in early 2025.  That means that 2 out of every 10 people in this country have shifted from generally approving of Trump to disapproving of Trump.  He has lost the whole game.  All he has left is his authoritarianism and those who will listen to him.  He can still do a lot of damage without the consent of the people.

• Anthony Fauci is the face of COVID authoritarianism, but let’s remember that Trump kept him on the job throughout the end of his first term.

• Stephen A. Smith, the loudmouth sports (and political) commentator, recently issued an apology to Kyrie Irving for criticizing him for not taking the COVID jab.  I genuinely don’t know if this was a sincere apology or if he is just reading the room for a presidential run.  Maybe it’s both.

• What if Kevin Warsh and the Fed decide to hike interest rates at their next policy meeting?  Trump criticized Jerome Powell (to say the least) for being “too late” in lowering interest rates.  If Warsh votes to hike rates, shouldn’t this make him far worse in Trump’s book?  Of course, Trump just appointed Warsh, and most of what he says and does doesn’t make sense these days.

• Prior to the U.S./ Israel attack on Iran in February 2026, there was no reason to believe that Iranian officials wanted to get nuclear weapons.  They probably have more motivation now than ever before to get nuclear weapons.  Prior to the attack, the Strait of Hormuz was wide open without any tolls.  Now, the Iranians fully control the Strait and will probably charge tolls for a long time to come if it is open at all.  If this is winning, then I am tired of winning.

• The U.S. national debt will hit $40 trillion soon.  This seems to have no impact on the stock market.  If anything, investors like the fact that there will have to be more money creation out of thin air.

• The U.S. government is now spending over $7 trillion per year.  That is over $20,000 per year for every single person.  It is over $50,000 per household.  This doesn’t include state and local spending.  Are you getting $50,000 worth of benefits from the federal government every single year?

• The Republicans should get destroyed in the mid-term elections, just as they deserve.  They put war and special interests far ahead of the American people.  But don’t underestimate the stupidity and evil of the Democratic Party.  They still think Fauci is a hero.

• The establishment media likes to make a big deal that cases for measles have risen.  They want to blame this on RFK Jr., even though he hasn’t banned any vaccines.  Kennedy and others in the MAHA movement need to stop fighting in defensive mode.  What is the problem with getting the measles?  Death from the measles is very rare, and when it does happen, it is usually because of mistreatment or some other underlying issue.  We have seen massive increases in cancer, diabetes, autoimmune diseases, and so many other things over the last several decades, yet the media is going to dwell on something that is barely a threat to anyone.  What if getting the measles and other childhood illnesses help fight off the more serious diseases later in life?  Perhaps the biggest danger of some vaccines is that they are preventing the body from getting a minor disease that properly develops the body to fight more serious diseases.

• For the hardcore democratic socialists out there, how far are you willing to take your agenda?  In your perfect world, would someone be able to own their own toothbrush?

• Envy can be a very dangerous thing.  If you see someone successful (through honest means), you are in a bad place if you are simply trying to tear that person down for being successful.  If you listen to some of these so-called democratic socialists, the end goal often isn’t to make poor people wealthier.  The end goal is to actually tear down those with wealth.