I have imagined many times before how much things could improve if we (the United States) had a libertarian president.  When I say “libertarian”, I mean philosophically, regardless of party affiliation.

I have pointed out the many things a libertarian president could do, even without a libertarian Congress.  Our libertarian president could end all wars right away.  Our libertarian president could pardon all non-violent drug offenders convicted under federal law, plus other prisoners convicted of victimless crimes.  Our libertarian president could veto every budget and force Congress to override the veto.  Our libertarian president could use the bully pulpit to encourage the American people to tell their representatives what to do.

Of course, if we ended up with a libertarian president, that means there would have been a major philosophical shift in the thinking of a large percentage of Americans. Maybe the stars would have to align with other unlikeable candidates in the election.  A few scandals wouldn’t hurt either.  But for a libertarian to be elected president, there would have to be some kind of major shift.  This would be the most important advancement towards liberty.

But let’s say that we got a libertarian president without a dramatic shift in public opinion. For a crazy example, let’s say that Trump is running against Biden in 2020.  Let’s say they both get caught in major scandals right before the election.  I am not talking about a made-up scandal by the CIA like what we have now with the impeachment. I am talking about major scandals for both sides where there is irrefutable evidence and where the loyal constituents even find it hard to forgive.

Meanwhile, let’s say that a real libertarian, like Jacob Hornberger, is in the race as a third-party candidate.  Let’s say that Trump gets 25% of the vote, Biden gets 25% of the vote, the Green Party and other candidates pick up 15%, while Hornberger gets 35%. Let’s say that Hornberger barely gets a majority in the Electoral College.

In this scenario though, people voted for Hornberger just because he seemed the most trustworthy out of the candidates, and they couldn’t vote for Trump or Biden because of their major scandals.  I know, the scandals would have to be really bad for this to happen.

Now let’s assume Hornberger is allowed to take office, meaning that the CIA and other factions of the deep state do not physically prevent him.  If you think they have fought hard against Trump for the last three years, imagine what would happen with an actual libertarian in there.

Hornberger could take office on day one and begin the task of dismantling most of the federal government.  Or could he?

The Deep State and the Administrative State

Americans face two great opponents that are both factions of the federal government.  Most don’t know they face these opponents, or at least cannot articulate it well, but they are opponents nonetheless.

There is the deep state, and there is the administrative state.

The term deep state has become common in today’s world.  If you used that phrase five years ago, you would have been written off as a conspiracy theorist.  Today, it is still possible to get called a conspiracy theorist, but even deep state members are admitting there is a deep state.  They try to justify the deep state, saying it is a good thing it is there in order to prevent Trump from destroying everything.

The deep state is certainly a major threat.  It is the more ruthless and violent of the two factions.  But at least some people are now aware of its existence, largely thanks to Donald Trump.  Really, more people are aware of the deep state today because of the deep state’s reactions to Donald Trump.

A less obvious opponent is the administrative state.  People call government a bureaucracy, so there is certainly awareness of the administrative state.  But people do not understand the threat it imposes because it seems relatively harmless.  You aren’t really afraid of a bureaucrat unless you are depending on them to approve important paper work that you are depending on, such as a permit or license for a business.

The major problem with the administrative state is that it is so ingrained.  It is almost impossible to get rid of, even for a libertarian president.

As libertarians, we can casually say that we should just abolish certain agencies.  And I do believe this could technically be done with enough support.  But just abolishing an agency would cause a lot of havoc in a lot of people’s lives.  It isn’t just the people working for the administrative state.  Imagine how much money is owed between different parties. Imagine all of the paperwork. You would have to find all of the corresponding regulations to repeal that go along with each agency. Otherwise, it might be against the law for people to do something without having any means of getting approval.

What about companies that have paid billions of dollars for trials with drugs or food?  What about people in medical school getting government licensure to become a doctor?  What about companies that are in the middle of government contracts that are getting paid for work that was previously done?  What about buildings that are under construction and half-built that are being funded by the government?

I know the answer to many of these questions is to still just abolish everything and let the chips fall where they do.  However, even those who may favor a dramatic reduction in government will feel a lack of justice if they have a direct interest in some particular agency or project.  They may feel they have invested a lot of time and money for nothing.

The problem is that there are thousands and thousands of examples of where people will not be pleased with the immediate abolishment of a government agency.  They may not have ever wanted to deal with the agency in the first place, but because of the regulations as they existed, they were forced to become somewhat dependent on the agency.

I bring this up as a libertarian not to say that it is impossible or that we should not keep calling for this.  I bring it up to point out that it is far more complicated than just repealing an agency, eliminating the budget, and sending everyone home.  What do you do with all of the files with names and Social Security numbers on them sitting in office filing cabinets?

For this reason, I actually think the administrative state is harder to repeal or scale back than the deep state.  I don’t even know how a libertarian president would go about starting the process, even with a decent percentage of the population supporting such an agenda.

Trump has trouble withdrawing a few thousand troops from Syria without the deep state going crazy. Maybe a libertarian president could stand firm and withdraw troops.  Maybe.  I am not even sure about this any more.

I am starting to think I have been naïve all of these years for saying that a president can just order the troops home as commander-in-chief.

It would be great if a libertarian president, or any president, could withdraw troops and end all foreign interventions.  It would save a lot of death and destruction for foreigners.  It would bring about a lot more peace. It would also save a lot of money in the U.S. budget.

Beyond this, I am not sure what a libertarian president could do at this point.  The mess has piled up for many decades.  Some of it goes back over a century.  There are so many regulations and different little departments within all of these government agencies that it seems nearly impossible to dismantle them.

If we had a dramatic shift in public opinion towards libertarianism, maybe the best we could hope for is a slow incremental dismantling.  Maybe budgets could be cut by 2% per year.  Maybe we would need government committees (did I really just say that?) made up of libertarian-minded people that could organize the dismantling of these agencies somewhat orderly.  I think there would be enough libertarians who would volunteer to do this without being paid by taxpayers.

The Soviet Union was largely disbanded overnight.  There was a lot of corruption and chaos that followed, but things sort of worked out, at least compared to the way things were.  I doubt the same thing would happen in the U.S.

It is hard to say what would happen if we had a libertarian president.  It would largely depend on the individual and how courageous the person is.  But even with someone who stands firm, I think it would be nearly impossible to dismantle the administrative state.  The best we could hope for is a start.