The most important primary race of the year is on May 19, 2026. It may be the most important Congressional primary of the decade.
The primary election for Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District is where Thomas Massie is trying to retain his seat. Massie is a Republican who votes mostly as a libertarian. His Republican opponent is an establishment plant who won’t debate and won’t do any challenging interviews.
Donald Trump and his Israel-first backers are going “all in” on this race. They will spend something like $10 million or more to try to oust Massie, which is an astounding amount for any election, let alone a primary.
Some say it is because Massie was the main pusher for releasing the Epstein files. But it is probably a broader reason than that. Massie has refused to be bought and paid for by the Israeli lobby. He opposes war and the reckless spending. This tells you a lot about where Trump stands. Trump is expending more resources and energy in trying to defeat Massie than he is in trying to defeat any Democrat.
Therefore, it isn’t Massie’s one vote that bothers Trump and the war hawks so much. It is the fact that he is calling out what is happening.
The Trump Influence
It has been pointed out that the Trump-backed candidates have generally been winning this year. And some of those candidates may actually be better on some issues than their opponents. This seems to point to a lot of influence by Trump, which is true.
Here’s the problem. These Trump-backed candidates have been winning in Republican primaries. They aren’t winning in the general election. Some districts are so red that they will go Republican no matter who is on the ballot. So, the primaries do matter.
But overall, I believe the Republicans are going to get wiped out in November. Trump has betrayed his so-called America First agenda. He has certainly betrayed any mention of bringing greater peace to the world.
Trump is still very popular within the Republican Party. But that is barely one-third of the voting population. Most Democrats and independents hate him. There are libertarians and libertarian-leaning Republicans who voted for Trump in 2024 who don’t like him now because of all of his betrayals.
If you live in a solidly red district and get Trump’s endorsement, then you are likely to win. But the people who are seeking Trump’s endorsement now are going to be running away from him in the general election. And they may be running away from him completely in the future.
What’s at Stake?
The primary election is likely to be very close for Massie. It is possible he may lose even after winning easily in past elections.
If Massie loses, it will show that elections can be bought. It will show that the establishment media still has a great deal of influence. It will show that the establishment still has a great deal of control. Most unfortunate, it will show that a great number of Americans can still be fed propaganda with lies and that it works.
How can someone win a primary election against an incumbent by not debating and not taking any kind of real stand on any issues? Apparently, it may only take Trump’s endorsement and a whole lot of money.
On the other hand, if Massie wins, it will be a victory for liberty. It will be a victory for alternative media and against the establishment media. It will give permission to Republicans in Congress that maybe they can and should start separating themselves from Trump.
Everything about Trump should be repudiated at this point. He has shown himself to be a total liar and a war criminal. He is anything but America First. He is deeply unpopular, as he should be.
Thomas Massie didn’t need this grief. He could have compromised his principles. He could have just not pushed so hard on Epstein and toned down some of his criticisms. But he didn’t. He actually wants the American people to do better. He actually has morals and principles, which is why Trump and the establishment oppose him.
I will be watching closely on Tuesday. Let’s hope that Massie can pull through on this one and deliver a strong defeat to the ruling elite.