There are many moving parts in an economy.  There are forces pulling in opposite directions.  This is true when it comes to price inflation and price deflation.

There are the forces of the central bank, which in the case of the United States is the Federal Reserve.  The Fed controls the overnight lending rate for banks, which impacts interest rates.  The Fed controls the money supply.  Then you have the daily actions of millions of people.  In the case of the U.S. dollar, it is more like billions of people.

It is like a constant tug-of-war between inflation and deflation.  Sometimes one side gets a little extra help in pulling their way. However, it is amazing that price inflation, at least as measured by the government’s CPI numbers, has stayed in a relatively narrow range since the 2008 financial crisis.

The Fed has been able to expand its balance sheet drastically, then hit the brakes, then go again, and so on.  Yet, the reported consumer price inflation has remained close to the 2% mark.

I understand that there is much dispute about the government’s numbers.  It is impossible to measure price inflation exactly, and it will be different for different people because we don’t all buy the same things in the same quantities.  Still, while I think the numbers may be a little understated, I don’t think they are that far off, and the trend shows that it is fairly steady.

Even if a 2% CPI really meant 3%, then it means that the CPI has stayed somewhere around 1% and 3%, despite the wild fluctuations (mostly upward) in the balance sheet.  Of course, asset prices have been more of a roller coaster, especially when you look at real estate and stocks.

This relative tameness is just what the Fed wants.  It means it is getting away with its tricks.  The Fed has managed to create $6 trillion out of thin air since 2008 with relatively low price inflation.  Although it has done great damage in redistributing wealth and misallocating resources, most people do not blame the Fed for stagnant living standards.

The Current Numbers

The latest CPI data was released for October 2020.  The CPI came in at zero percent.  The year-over-year CPI is at 1.2%.

I find the median CPI is more stable and probably more accurate.  That came in at 0.2% for October, and the year-over-year median CPI is at 2.5%

This has been typical, where the median CPI runs above 2% and the CPI runs below 2%.

Meanwhile, the Fed’s balance sheet has seemed to slowly resume its climb upward.  It is now well above the $7 trillion mark.  This is quite astounding.

Despite the unprecedented lockdowns in 2020, stocks are booming and hitting all-time highs. It doesn’t make much sense that they are booming because of news of a vaccine while many areas are imposing new lockdowns or restrictions.

The only explanation I have is that the Fed has created a lot of new money out of thin air in 2020, and a lot of this money went directly to people in the form of stimulus checks and unemployment checks.

A Look Ahead

So what’s in store for us in 2021?

Let’s see.  We still don’t have an official president-elect despite what the media claims.  This could be a source of chaos in December and leading into January.

We have the continued threats of lockdowns imposed by governors and mayors.  If Biden becomes president, then we have the threat of some kind of an attempt for a national lockdown.  Biden’s advisors think it’s just fine to make everyone stay at home for 4 to 6 weeks.  After all, the Fed can just create more money and hand it out.

It is lost on these people that the Fed doesn’t actually create food or medication or oil or any household goods.  You can send everyone checks, but it won’t mean much if there is nothing to buy.

I believe there remains a major threat of a stock market crash.  When it finally comes, it will probably come hard and fast. I am not advocating shorting the market right now, or at least not in any substantial way.  It is hard to fight the trend right now.  But you should be well diversified out of stocks.

I think there will be a continued struggle between price inflation and price deflation.  I think the economy is going to get worse before it gets better.  Sure, it would help if all government lockdowns ended and the threats of government lockdowns ended.  But we shouldn’t expect things to go back to the way they were in February 2020.  It is already way too late for many thousands of businesses that have permanently shut down.

When things get tight again, people are going to stop spending on non-essential things. This will be another round of tough times for businesses to say the least.  This will be deflationary.

However, in reaction, we should expect the Fed to keep digitally printing new money.  This will be a pull for the inflation side.

I expect the inflation side to eventually pull hard enough that we see price inflation much higher than we have seen any time in the last decade.  Maybe we’ll eventually see something like the 1970s again.  In the short term however, I tend to think we will continue to see relatively tame price inflation due to economic fears. If people are so fearful that they aren’t spending much money on non-necessities, then this will bring prices down.

I expect that prices will rise for essential goods (as determined by consumers, not by the state).  In other words, we could easily see a scenario where the prices for haircuts and car stereo systems are going down, while prices for food and toilet paper are going up.

I am still bullish on gold over the next several years.  I believe it is important to have gold and gold-related investments as a form of wealth protection.  There will be ups and downs, but I believe there will be more ups than downs.  Plus, it is somewhat like an insurance policy.

Even in a more deflationary situation in which gold goes down, the Fed is gong to step in and overcompensate.  So if gold goes down significantly in price, it probably won’t stay down for long.

I also don’t think you can go wrong by buying extra household goods that you can store and will use in the future.  This can include things like toilet paper, paper towels, spices, shaving cream, razor blades, soap, shampoo, and canned goods.  It is doubtful that any of these things will be cheaper one year from now.  And after what we saw in March and April, it’s not a bad idea to have some extra supplies on hand.

The only certainty at this point is uncertainty and chaos.  I hope Americans can stop the slide into authoritarianism. We are going to have to deal with economic problems ahead no matter what.  The best you can do is to prepare for yourself and your family and to be an advocate for liberty when people are looking for answers as to what happened.

Even though the 2020 election is far from over, the media has anointed Joe Biden as the president-elect.  The corporate media is just declaring it so, and they are mostly ignoring any claims by the Trump campaign or anyone else that the election is under challenge.

Biden has already set up a coronavirus task force.  More accurately, Biden’s handlers have set up a coronavirus task force. We are already hearing more about a possible national lockdown and a national mask mandate.

The leftist Naomi Wolf said that she might not have voted for Biden if she knew he was considering more lockdowns.  This is laughable.  Maybe she is more honest than most other leftists, but she has exposed herself as incredibly naïve at best.

What next?  Is someone going to say they wouldn’t have voted for Biden if they had known that he doesn’t favor smaller government?

Now that Biden has been declared the next president, the half of the country who hate Trump are celebrating.  For now, the rioting and looting in major cities has mostly stopped.  There was some action the night of Election Day when it looked like Trump might take it.  But now that Biden has been declared the winner by the establishment and its media, the rioting has stopped and there are calls everywhere for unity.

For some reason, we haven’t seen rioting and looting coming from the Trump supporters who mostly feel like this election is being stolen from Trump.

If rioting and looting is your thing, the only hope is that Trump can flip some of these swing states through court actions and recounts.  If things start to flip for Trump and the media has to cover it, then we could see a return of the “mostly peaceful protests”, as described by CNN.

We Won, You Unite

We just spent four years hearing about how Trump is the worst human being ever.  We had four years of the establishment trying to overturn the 2016 election.  We have had four years of Trump supporters being called racists, white supremacists, stupid rednecks, deplorables, etc.  Now that Trump has lost (as told by their media), it is time to unite.

What I am going to say next, I say with the full understanding that Trump has surrounded himself by mostly establishment people, and many of Trump’s policies have been favorable to the establishment.  However, Trump has been mostly opposed by the establishment (the ruling class) for his rhetoric and for sometimes pointing out the truth.

When you have state violence or any kind of violence, there will never be unity.  There may be the appearance of peace, and there may be the appearance of unity, but the threat of violence binds it all together.

It is possible to have a society where everybody is brainwashed and willingly goes along with every state edict.  The ruler or rulers are probably not brainwashed in this situation, as they have an understanding that they rely on the cooperation of those they rule over. They know they have to be seen as legitimate.

Here is what unity really means: Follow the instructions given to you, and there will be no problems.  Be a good citizen and obey, and you can live in peace.

If you had visited the Soviet Union during its existence, you probably would have seen unity. People would have agreed with the party line.  If you got really close to someone and they trusted you, it’s possible they would have confided that they questioned the whole system, or at least parts of it.  But nobody would ever day say this publicly.

Guns can be quite unifying, depending on your definition of unity.  If someone enters a bank and pulls out a gun and tells everyone to get on the floor, you will likely see great unity in action.  As long as nobody tried to fight back, you will see unity.  You may even see peace in the sense that there is no actual shooting.

The bank robber could even tuck away his gun.  As long as everyone cooperates and nobody lunges for the gun, then everything is fine, at least according to the bank robber.  As long as you cooperate, nobody will get shot. There will be “peace”. There will be “unity”. Nobody will say a bad word about the bank robber.

The bank robber could say that he has two partners hiding in the next room.  If anyone tries to make a move, there might be trouble. The bank robber might be able to put away his gun or even just not have a gun at all and walk freely around the bank.  He can have the full cooperation of the people without even having any partners hiding the next room, just as long as the people in the bank believe he may have partners in the room next door.

Whenever you hear the word unity with relation to politics, think about the worst dictatorial regime ever in existence.  Think about everyone marching in lockstep.

The Previously “United” States of America

Some people wish things would go back to the way they were, politically speaking.  This is particularly true for the ruling class. In terms of state regulations and lockdowns dealing with the coronavirus, I wish things would go back to the way they were.

In terms of politics though, I really don’t want to go back to the way they were.  We are told that people were more civil before. I would contend that people were more obedient.

Prior to the web as we know it today, one was mostly dependent on a few television stations for the news.  They mostly repeated what the others said.  This is where most people got their information.

The difference between today and then is that there is much more information.  Sure, there is a lot of bad information too, but at least people who are searching for the truth can search in many places and get many varying viewpoints.

The reason there seems to be a lack of unity today is because there are more people questioning the actions of the ruling class.  They aren’t being as obedient as they once were.

The 70 million plus people who voted for Trump are not being obedient.  They didn’t do what they were told to do.  These people have a gripe with the system.  The system has failed them in some way or they recognize the injustices of the system.  They know the corporate media is lying to them.  They know that the ruling class does not care about them and is willing to harm them.

Why do you think that pro Trump people are less likely to wear a mask and stay locked up in their house?  Why do you think the anti Trump people are so enthusiastic about mask wearing and social distancing and “staying safe”?  It’s because the pro Trump people do not believe most of what the establishment media tells them to believe.  Sometimes they believe the opposite.

The unity in politics is the same as the unity in mask wearing and social distancing.  Just obey your orders good citizen and everything will be fine.  You will have peace and civility as long as you do exactly what you are told to do.

I personally do not want to go back to the way things were.  This means that people would just accept whatever they are told. They will obey their state rulers and not question authority.  They will allow the ruling class to do what they do best.

Assuming that Trump leaves office in January 2021, his 70 million followers do not go away. There will be no unity. There should be no unity.

While 2020 has been a disaster in many ways, my hope is that the whole system will be seen as less legitimate than it was before.  My hope is that there will be calls for decentralization and nullification.

There are peaceful options.  People can go their separate ways and live in actual peace.  One of the first steps in this is not being united.

Although the results of the 2020 election are not final, it is not too early to assess the Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen campaign representing the Libertarian Party (LP).

One person’s success is another person’s failure.  In the case of a long-shot presidential campaign, I don’t think not winning, by itself, can reasonably be called a failure.  Everyone, including Jo Jorgensen, knew she was not going to be elected president.

While the final numbers aren’t in yet, Jorgensen looks to have received a little over 1% of the total vote. In some states, her total did fall below 1%.  Since the turnout was high, her vote total will be around 1.8 million.  This is the second strongest finish for an LP candidate in terms of vote totals, second only to Gary Johnson in 2016.

This is well short of the nearly 4.5 million votes received by Johnson in 2016.  Unlike some other libertarians, I don’t consider the 2016 LP campaign to be a success.  It was a success if you are just trying to get a lot of votes.  But I consider success to be converting others towards libertarianism, or to be moving the needle towards liberty in some way.

I don’t think there were many libertarians created in 2016 because of the Johnson/ Weld ticket. I did hear one person once on a podcast say he found libertarianism because of Gary Johnson, so I can’t say he converted nobody.

Of course, people have different definitions of what it means to be a libertarian too.  I’m sure Johnson created a few “libertarians” who consider themselves fiscally conservative and socially liberal. I have come to despise that definition.

I don’t know that I have the most perfect and precise definition of what it means to be a libertarian, but I think the LP pledge does a pretty good job of it.  It says, “I hereby certify that I do not believe in or advocate the initiation of force as a means of achieving political or social goals.”

Unfortunately, after all is said and done, I doubt that Jorgensen and Cohen moved the needle much towards liberty.

I have been somewhat critical of both of them.  I think they are both decent people.  And to be sure, I believe this was the best LP ticket since at least 2004.  But after getting mildly excited after the nominating convention, it all went out the window quickly.

2020 – A Different Kind of Year

I think, in many ways, this was a tough year to run.  A large portion of the electorate loves Donald Trump.  A large portion of the electorate hates Donald Trump. And while Trump is far from libertarian on most issues, he is somewhat anti establishment in his rhetoric. Therefore, I think it would have been tough for Jorgensen to get over 2% no matter what she did.

I believe this also made it tough to get media appearances.  But she didn’t get zero coverage either.  She was on Kennedy’s show on Fox Business. She was on some podcasts that have relatively big audiences.  But the few times I saw her or listened to her, I just don’t think she had a big impact.  She was the opposite of Donald Trump, in a bad way.  She wasn’t bold.  She wasn’t confident.  She certainly didn’t come across as a fighter.  And if you are going to have a personality like this while running for president, then you sure better be principled and bold with your policy proposals.

While 2020 is a tough setup in many ways, it was easy in others.  There have been riots across the country in big cities at the same time that people and businesses have been locked down due to the hysteria over a virus.

There were tens of millions of people forced out of work.  A lot of those people are back to work, but some of them aren’t. And some of them are back to work at lower pay.  Meanwhile, there are tens of thousands of businesses that are closed down for good.  They couldn’t survive months of being forced to shut down.  Worse, they didn’t know if and when they would be allowed to continue with business as usual, meaning business as usual prior to March 2020.

You can’t get an easier libertarian and populist issue at the same time.  It is also current.  It has been the number one issue for most people since March.

Now, one could argue that it isn’t a federal government issue because it was governors and mayors who officially shut things down.  But, the recommendations were coming out of Washington DC.  And Biden is still talking about locking things down and having a national mask mandate.

Jorgensen and Cohen should have been hitting hard on this issue saying that we need to defend private property and voluntary association.  It should have been issue number one in every single interview.  If the subject wasn’t brought up by the interviewer, then change the subject in your answer. The unemployed and the small business owners need a voice.  Jorgensen could have been that voice.  She could have converted thousands of small business owners towards libertarianism for life.  These people must despise the government for ruining their livelihood and their dreams.  They need an advocate.

Instead, they had to settle on Trump.  Trump was wishy-washy on the whole thing.  He got duped into the whole coronavirus hysteria in March and was never able to fully recover.  By the end of the campaign, Trump was at least saying that we need to move on and not let the cure be worse than the disease.  It was better than Biden who was still threatening more lockdowns. I believe this was a giant mistake by the Jorgensen campaign and the LP for not hammering away at this important issue.

I went through Jorgensen’s Twitter feed a couple of times just to see what she was saying (or whoever was running her Twitter account).  I agreed with most of what was being said, although I didn’t always agree with the emphasis on certain things.

I believe the biggest blunder, which happened not that long after the nomination, was Jorgensen (and to a lesser extent, Spike Cohen) trying to appease the far left.  She was attending Black Lives Matter (BLM) rallies.  As I joked after the election results were coming in, I guess Jo didn’t reach out to BLM hard enough.

There was one particularly bad tweet where Jorgensen said, “It is not enough to be passively not racist, we must be actively anti racist.”

With that, she probably lost a few hundred thousand votes.  I doubt if this gained her one vote from the left, but it alienated a lot of libertarians who were tired of the rioting and the over exaggerations of systemic racism.

Jorgensen should have been reaching out to Ron Paul-type people.  I should have been an easy vote for her, but she lost my vote. I still considered it at the end, but I didn’t want to reward her terrible campaigning and her mostly terrible message.

If she is that weak in a campaign and feels the need to pander to the social justice warriors, then I can’t imagine how weak she would be as a president.  She would end up being less anti establishment than Trump.  She probably would have folded over to the military-industrial complex in a heartbeat.  I don’t know this for sure, but I get that sense.

I don’t think there was anything wrong with making some common ground with some of the protesters.  Sure, preach the LP message of ending the federal war on drugs.  But it was ridiculous to do what seemed like pandering with the expectation of winning any of these people over.

Spoiler

There have been articles since Election Day blaming the LP for giving us Biden or for giving us a toss-up in the Senate.  The Jorgensen vote total covered the spread in several states.  In other words, if all of the Jorgensen voters had voted for Trump instead, then Trump would have won certain states that he otherwise may not.

I don’t think the LP should be criticized for this, but I also don’t think the LP should brag about it.

If the LP brags about this, it just makes Trump Republicans madder.  They will be less likely to ever consider the LP in the future when someone other than Trump is running.

At the same time, it isn’t fair to blame the LP for what happened.  Most people who voted LP wouldn’t have voted for Trump or Biden (Republican or Democrat).  And for those who would have, it would have been split.  I can’t even tell you if Trump or Biden would have benefitted if there had been no LP candidates.

The biggest accusation is coming out of Georgia, where the LP candidate for Senate got about 2% of the vote.  One of the Republicans just missed the 50% threshold, which means there will be a run-off.  It may not matter in the end though. Anyway, if most of those LP voters were supposed to go Republican, then the Republican in the race shouldn’t have any problem winning in the run-off election.

Education

I think it is good to have an LP.  Not all libertarians feel this way.  There was progress made this year.  Again, I believe Jorgensen/ Cohen was the best ticket since at least 2004. Maybe we can get a more radical ticket with a better message in 2024.

I believe the main purpose of the LP should be education.  We have to change hearts and minds.  That is the only way to move towards liberty. Donald Trump has done some good in educating others, sometimes inadvertently.  He has helped expose the evil deep state.  He has also shifted the Republican Party on foreign policy to being less interventionist than before.

Assuming Trump has to step down in January, the LP should be reaching out to Trump supporters. It won’t be easy, but I think it would be easier than trying to recruit anti Trump Democrats.

I know many in the LP say that the LP needs to win political offices.  They say that you can only change things by electing liberty candidates to office.  But I believe they are putting the cart before the horse.

You have to convert people to libertarianism first.  Otherwise, it will do no good.  Ron Paul in 2007/ 2008, and again in 2011/2012, converted more people than anyone else, probably ever.  Harry Browne recruited many people in his LP campaigns in 1996 and 2000. I actually became a radical libertarian because of Harry Browne.  But I didn’t start following him closely until after his 2000 campaign.

We aren’t going to achieve greater liberty by putting the “right” people into office except to the extent that they will help spread the word.  You have to have a strong base of support from the people. Even a libertarian president would find it difficult to enact bold and lasting change without the consent of the people.

With this standard in mind, I give low ratings overall to the Jorgensen/ Cohen campaign of 2020. I don’t think they changed a lot of hearts and minds.  They were better than the last three LP tickets though, which probably just moved us backwards.

You can see that most of the people who voted for Johnson in 2016 did not go on to vote for Jorgensen. There was no move towards liberty by Johnson/ Weld.  They received a lot of votes by LP standards, but there wasn’t much else to show for it.

I hope that people in the LP learn this lesson.  Unfortunately, I fear the opposite will be learned.  Some will say that Jorgensen/ Cohen didn’t do as well because they weren’t high profile enough.  Therefore, they’ll conclude that we need to recruit former politicians, even if they don’t follow all of the libertarian principles.

I don’t care about electing the “right” people.  I don’t care about having a respectable showing.  I don’t care about candidates who garner media attention, unless they are going to preach a principled libertarian message.  We need to educate others on the benefits of liberty.  Only then can we make strides towards a more libertarian society.

There are no official results yet for the presidential election, but the corporate media has called it for Joe Biden.  Biden has addressed the American people as the president-elect (according to the corporate media).

There were a lot of people up on stage with Biden, and he wasn’t wearing his mask the whole time. It looked like a super-spreader event to me.  I think Kamala Harris coughed up some coronavirus on Biden just in case he somehow makes it longer than a few months.

Actually, I think Harris and company will allow Biden to take some pictures in the Oval Office and sniff the hair of some interns.  Biden will be allowed a few months to fly around on Air Force One.  Maybe he’ll be given a year if he can stay somewhat coherent.  Eventually though, Biden’s handlers will come to him and let him know that it’s his time to step down.

This is all assuming that Biden is inaugurated on January 20, 2021.  Trump has something else to say about that.  Trump is claiming that he won by a lot. There are many claims of fraud, which I have no doubt many are true.  The problem is that Trump is challenging these things in court. The courts, at least to some extent, are part of the establishment.

Trump has almost no power in the courts, in the media, with other politicians, and most others with any kind of voice.  Sure, there are the 70 million or so Americans who voted for Trump, but they voted for Trump because they felt they have no voice.  Trump is their voice.

So while I think Trump will fight hard and drag this thing out, I believe Biden will become president in 2021.

Trump is not going away.  His 70 million supporters are not going away.  And his hardcore supporters aren’t going back to the Bushes or Romneys of the world, at least with any enthusiasm.

The Trump haters see Trump as a bully.  Trump’s supporters see Trump as a fighter.  They see him as an advocate.  They see him as a voice that had previously been lacking. They see him as their middle finger to the system and ruling class that has screwed them.

I don’t know that anyone can replace Trump.  He is an alpha male.  The only one who comes anywhere close right now is Tucker Carlson.  For the next 4 years, Trump and Carlson will heavily influence the hardcore Republicans who are anti establishment.

I have been somewhat impressed lately by Donald Trump Jr.  I don’t know that he can be as commanding as his father.  But Donald Trump has opened up a can of worms that isn’t going away.  I don’t even think his supporters will accept Mike Pence in 2024.  They might vote for him over Kamala Harris, but you aren’t going to see 50,000 people show up for a Pence for president rally.

I’m mildly optimistic with regard to a Biden presidency.  He is not going to be seen as legitimate by almost half the country.

When Biden addressed the nation the night before the corporate media called it for him, he said he has a mandate for the economy, the coronavirus, climate change, and systemic racism.  I’m not really sure how Biden could say he has a mandate for anything.  Even with the vote totals as they stand, the race was extremely close in terms of electoral votes.  Meanwhile, tens of millions of people believe there was fraudulent counting in the swing states.  That doesn’t sound like much of a mandate to me.

My hope is that the coronavirus soon goes away.  Maybe Biden will put in a few token measures without fully locking down the country.  Anyway, I would like to see him try to lock down the whole country.  That would sure speed up the idea of state nullification.

My best guess is that Biden will do something minor and then they will declare that the coronavirus has been defeated.  Well, that’s my hope.  I know that politicians do no easily relinquish power, and governors and mayors have gained a lot of power.  This is the thing that most concerns me.

I am not too concerned about socialized healthcare.  I know Trump was saying that Biden is controlled by AOC and the far left. As podcaster Dave Smith pointed out, Biden will be controlled by Goldman Sachs and the Pentagon.

Trump, for all of his faults, is the first president since at least the 1980s to not start a new major war.  He still has a couple of months, so anything is possible.  But I am afraid Biden won’t continue this trend.  With the economic mess we are in, maybe it will actually put some restraints on the military budget.

It is hard to believe the voter turnout for this election.  Even if there was fraud, the voter turnout was incredibly high. Maybe some of this is due to the convenience of mail-in ballots.  Much of it is due to Trump, both for and against.  Almost nobody actually voted “for” Biden.  They were voting against Trump.

If the vote totals currently showing are anywhere near accurate, Biden has received by far the most votes in U.S. history in one election with over 75 million. Trump will hold second place for the most votes ever at about 71 million.  This exceeds Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.  Trump’s vote total exceeds his own total from 2016 by about 8 million.  This is a story in itself.

Anyway, it looks like this wasn’t much of a pandemic since voter turnout was so high.  The way the coronanvirus has been covered, you would think voter turnout would be way down due to so many dead Americans.

The next few months won’t be boring.  Aside from all of the legal fights and recounts that are likely to occur, there’s no telling what Donald Trump will do.  I really hope it isn’t just entertainment only.  I hope he does some good things for the cause of liberty.  He should withdraw more troops from Middle East wars.  He should pardon Julian Assange and Edward Snowden.  It would be nice if he would declassify more documents related to things like 9/11 and the Kennedy assassination.  There is much more that he could do, but he probably hasn’t been told a lot of top-secret information that could be damaging to the establishment.

Biden is about to turn 78.  Trump is 74. Trump will be 78 in 2024.  I can already hear the calls for Trump 2024.  Or maybe they can get Tucker Carlson to run.  Please don’t give me Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Mike Pence, or anyone like these people.

Trump is far from being a libertarian, and he has many bad qualities.  But it is important to recognize that he is different than previous politicians.  Trump has rattled the establishment like never before in modern history. That is why the establishment had to make sure that Trump was removed.  Let’s not forget though that Trump still has Twitter.  He is likely going to have a lot of free time beginning on January 21, 2021.  He isn’t going to go quietly into the night.

As I write this, the presidential results are in limbo.  With all of the stories coming out about ballot funny business, this could go on for a while.  Will it be Biden or Trump?

It is looking more likely that it will be Biden.  Either way though, there are some things that will go on, including the divisiveness.  What will also go on are the deep state and the administrative state.  This includes the Federal Reserve.

The Fed concluded its latest meeting with the latest statement on monetary policy and a press conference from Jerome Powell.  There is basically no change in the Fed’s policy except for a few changing words that don’t mean much.

The Fed is going to keep its target federal funds rate near zero for a long time to come.  If price inflation remains relatively tame, it could be for many years.  Meanwhile, the Fed’s balance sheet remains near its all-time high, which is nearly $3 trillion higher than it was at the beginning of the year.

The price of gold went up big today, while the 10-year yield has fallen back from its rise last week. The U.S. dollar has been down.

There are some things that will not change regardless of who is president on January 21, 2021. The federal government will continue to spend recklessly with trillion-dollar deficits.  The Fed will continue to help fund these deficits and do the bidding of the big bankers and the politicians.

The stock market has been up big during this election turmoil.  This is a bit curious given that stock investors tend to not like certainty.  However, there was a big sell-off the week before.

On Tuesday night, when things were looking half decent for Trump early on, stock futures were up. Trump’s performance was unexpected for anyone who actually believed the polls.  As things started to shift towards Biden on Wednesday, stocks continued to roar.  It has made little difference to the stock market.  Historically, it doesn’t seem to matter which party is in the White House.

Perhaps stock investors were happy that it was not a “blue wave” for the Democrats.  It was apparent early on that the Republicans have a good chance of retaining a slim majority in the Senate, while the Democrats lost some seats in the House but will still retain a majority.  So no matter who gets the presidency, there will be some gridlock.  There won’t be much gridlock in terms of federal spending, but there won’t be any wild tax hikes or nationalized healthcare.

As I’ve said in the lead-up to the election, I think there is major economic turmoil ahead.  I’m not sure if it will be a deep recession/ depression or if it will proliferate with significantly higher price inflation.  We could also get something resembling the 1970s with stagflation.  The good news, if Trump doesn’t get the presidency, is that Biden/ Harris will have to deal with these problems.  Blaming Trump will only work for a year or so.

I continue to be bullish on gold in the long run.  I am going to watch the inflation numbers closely.  I am a little less certain with gold mining stocks, as they do present significant risk if we go into deep recession.  However, I do think that gold stocks offer major potential if you are willing to accept the risk.

My next few posts will likely be political in nature.  If there are any major economic developments though, I will be sure to comment.

I write this on Election Eve, and I don’t know what name I’m marking on my ballot for president tomorrow.  This is a first for me.

It’s somewhat ironic because I follow politics very closely.  I read a lot about what is going on.  I write about it.  I have a love/ hate relationship with politics.  I hate it because I despise the use of violence for political or social goals, which is really what politics is all about. I love it because I find it entertaining, perhaps in a sick sort of way.

I consider myself very informed, but most people who don’t have a similar philosophical outlook would probably disagree.  They would call me ignorant or brainwashed.  They can’t grasp their own ignorance or brainwashing.

It’s not to say I am free from ignorance or brainwashing when it comes to politics.  It happens to some degree to everyone. But I understand what is happening.  I understand that there are evil people who want to use power over others, which especially includes those in politics.

I also understand the position of others.  Most non-libertarians cannot accurately describe my libertarian philosophy.

I don’t live in a libertarian bubble.  I read many articles and listen to podcasts and watch videos with libertarian themes.  But I am quite aware of the differing views on issues.  I occasionally watch the news because I can’t help myself.  It is somewhat of a curiosity sometimes just to see what brainwashing the masses are getting.

So I don’t know whom I’m voting for.  Or more accurately, I don’t know if I am voting against someone or something. I am not voting against Trump, as most people voting for Biden are really doing.  It could be Stalin with a D next to his name and the anti Trump people would vote for him.

Donald Trump

If I vote for Trump, I am not really voting for Trump.  I am voting against everything I despise in politics.  I am voting against the establishment.  I am voting against the establishment media and the lies.  I am voting against today’s culture.  I am voting against political correctness.  I am voting against all of the mouthy celebrities who don’t have a clue.  I am also, presumably, voting against a greater evil in Joe Biden and, even more so, Kamala Harris.

Trump has a lot of problems.  From a libertarian standpoint, he has even more.  His understanding (or lack of) economics is horrible.  His foreign policy is generally bad because he surrounds himself with establishment war hawks, and Trump sometimes feels the need to act tough.  So the wars and foreign interference continue on.

However, Trump is better on these issues than Biden and Harris.  Trump is the first president in many decades to not start a new major war.  It shouldn’t seem like that great of an achievement, but we really haven’t seen relative peace in a long time.  If Biden (or worse, Harris) gets in, we could see more war in the future. Of course, we could with Trump too, but the chances seem greater with Biden.  Biden and Harris are bragging about how they have the lying liars from the Bush administration supporting them.  In other words, they have the full backing of many of the people who lied us into war in Iraq.

I am tempted to vote for Trump because I think he has a shred of honesty and decency in him. I know he has a big ego, and I know he has a lot of flaws.  But to get someone with some honesty in the presidency is a big achievement. There is always a chance that he might do something good.

Trump has been bad on the coronavirus and lockdowns, but not nearly as bad as other politicians. He has an advisor (Scott Atlas) who has been quite critical of the lockdowns and overreactions.

There is always a chance that someone like Tucker Carlson does a story on the atrocities in Yemen and how the U.S. is helping to fund and support the atrocities.  There is a chance Trump will see the story and do something about it.  There is little chance of this happening with a Biden or Harris presidency.

There are many compelling reasons to mark my ballot for Trump.  However, I don’t generally keep my voting a secret, and I don’t want to defend every stupid thing Trump does for the next four years if he is reelected.  I also don’t like voting for the lesser of two evils unless there is a big difference between the evils.  In terms of rhetoric, Trump is much different.  But I’m not as sure about his policies.

There is also reason to hope that a Biden presidency could actually improve some things. Maybe the coronavirus will magically go away with a Biden election win.  Maybe we can see some civility again, only because the left will stop being quite so uncivil.  Maybe we will see a reduction in rioting and looting.  I know this angers some Trump supporters by saying it because it sounds like I am giving in to the mob.  It’s like they’re saying, “You better vote Biden in, or we are coming to a city near you to burn it down.”  But it’s not my fault the American people have allowed all of this nonsense to happen.  I just want some of the old normal back.

I also believe that we have really tough economic times ahead.  If the Republicans can maintain the Senate, we could be just as well off with a Biden presidency, especially if he takes a lot of the blame for the problems.  With Trump in there, we will hear a lot of blame put on capitalism, even though Trump’s policies are not generally pro free market.

Anyway, I’m not going to not vote for Trump just because of the way he might be portrayed or because the mob might settle down if Trump leaves office.  But I am also not as fearful that life will not go on as many Trump people are.  They are really scared of the prospects of a Biden victory.

Jo Jorgensen

I don’t have a lot to say about the Libertarian Party’s nominee.  I was mildly excited when Jo Jorgensen became the nominee.  I have not voted for a Libertarian Party presidential candidate since Michael Badnarik in 2004.

Jo has been disappointing to say the least.  She hopped on board the political correct movement and sent out praise to BLM.  She sent a message on Twitter saying that it is not enough to not be racist.  Instead, you should be actively anti-racist.

Aside from a few of her politically correct things, there isn’t a lot where I really disagree with her.  The problem is that she doesn’t show a lot of enthusiasm, and she doesn’t stress the important issues.

I understand that the lockdowns came from governors and mayors, but the federal government has had a lot of input on the coronavirus, which has mostly been bad.  Jo should have been speaking out hard against the lockdowns.  She should have been an advocate for the tens of millions of people whose lives have been turned upside down due to government lockdowns and restrictions in response to hysteria over a virus that is no more than the flu to most people.

I could vote for Jo as a protest vote, and I haven’t completely abandoned the idea.  But on the other hand, I feel like she has not earned my vote.  She has done almost nothing to promote the cause of liberty that I can see. She got very little attention in the media, which isn’t all her fault, but some of it is.  She should have reached out to all of the Ron Paul people from 2008 and 2012 instead of trying to suck up to the hard left.  I don’t understand what she was thinking. It is just another year of a disappointing LP candidate.

Write-In

My most likely vote will be a write-in candidate.  Maybe I’ll vote for Ron Paul again.  I sometimes leave my ballot blank for certain races, but I don’t want to do that this time for the presidency.  I don’t want to open up my ballot for possible fraud. It would be too easy for someone to fill in a bubble.  I mean, I hope it’s not easy, but you never know.  I would rather it be unmistaken that I am choosing not to vote for anyone on the ballot for the presidency.

This is the easiest way to vote because I never have to defend my vote except for people who are mad that I didn’t vote for one of the major party candidates.  But I don’t have to defend the bad things that someone is doing.

I live in Florida, which is an important swing state.  In that sense, my vote matters.  But I know the chances of the election coming down to one vote in my state are essentially zero.  Even if it did come down to one vote, then I’m sure there would be enough fraud somewhere to make it not come down to one vote.

It’s still amazing that the 2000 election came down to a few hundred votes in Florida.  Of course, 2020 has been one for the record books, so you never know.

The election results will be entertaining if nothing else.  If Trump wins, then I get the entertainment that I got this time four years ago.  I get to watch the entire establishment media sit there with a look of shock, and I get to hear them still not understand that they are part of the reason that Trump gets the support that he gets.  If you think 4 years ago was bad, wait until this time.  Anyone with Trump Derangement Syndrome is going to have their head explode.

If Trump loses, I don’t think we are going back to the pre Trump days.  As I wrote in my last post, Trump still may be the leader of the Republican Party, and the 60 million or more people who vote for Trump are still out there.

I heard Donald Trump Jr. in an interview the other day, and I was more impressed than I thought I would be.  He was saying that Trump’s supporters are sick and tired of Republicans getting into office and folding over like Paul Ryan.  He said that these Republican politicians are going to have to answer to the voters in future elections.

Anyway, I don’t know how this whole thing will turn out.  There are a lot of Trump haters out there.  There are also a lot of Trump lovers, as can be seen by the tens of thousands of people showing up to each rally he holds.  In the meantime, I’ll make my final decision on which candidate (or non-candidate) I’m voting for by the morning.

As I write this, there are only five days left until November 3, 2020, which is the final day of voting for the election.  It is hard to call it Election Day since likely more than half of the people who will vote have already voted.  It is more like Election Month now.

I still have no idea who will win the presidential election.  I am not even sure who I am voting for.  Actually, I probably won’t be voting “for” anybody unless I write in a name.  If I vote for Trump or Jo Jorgensen, it would be more of a vote against the establishment than a vote for either of the candidates.

The polling tells us that Biden should win.  But the polling was terribly wrong in 2016.  People who mildly favor Trump, or who really dislike Biden and will vote for Trump, are not people who generally want to announce to the world that they are marking their ballot for Trump.  They certainly don’t want to say it on Facebook and receive the wrath of the their “friends”.  They may not want to tell someone taking a poll either.

There will likely be record turnout in this election.  It’s hard to believe that Trump vs. Biden could bring out more passion than Trump vs. Clinton.  It isn’t really Trump vs. Biden though.  It is Trump vs. the establishment.

I say this knowing well that Trump has surrounded himself by a bunch of establishment people. And Trump himself has mostly supported establishment policies, except that he hasn’t started any new major wars in his four years.

But the establishment absolutely hates Trump because he is a threat to their power.  Trump occasionally tells the truth about important matters, which the establishment hates.  Trump does not fall in line and obey like any president is supposed to do with the major issues.  This is especially problematic for the establishment when it comes to foreign policy.

The tens of millions of Americans who hate Trump and will vote against him by voting for Biden do not hate Trump for the same reasons as the establishment.  Most Americans who hate him, hate him because he is brash.  He doesn’t always speak in niceties the way a typical politician does.  Trump is just supposed to say that he cares about the children and loves puppies.  These people also hate him because they have a caricature of him that has been created by the establishment media.  Sure, Trump creates some of this himself, but anyone who mostly just listens to and reads the establishment media will likely hate Trump because almost every story portrays Trump as a bad guy.

The average Trump hater thinks Trump is a bully.  They think he is some kind of racist.  They dislike him for saying mean things on Twitter. This is not why the establishment hates him.  The establishment figures will accuse him of being a bully and a racist and anything else that portrays Trump in a bad light.  But they hate Trump because he is a disruption to their power.  Trump helps to shine a light on the corrupt establishment and the depth of the power.  Sometimes he does so inadvertently, but he does so nonetheless.  Sometimes the establishment exposes itself by overplaying their hand.

The Republican Anti Establishment

There are people inside the Republican Party, and even some outside the party, who whole-heartedly support Trump.  This doesn’t mean that they think he is perfect.  It doesn’t mean that they think he doesn’t have numerous flaws.  But they see Trump as the right person at the right time to do what nobody else has been able to do.

To be sure, Trump is not a typical Republican.  His foreign policy views have somewhat changed many Republicans’ thoughts on the issue.  In my view, it is for the better.

Trump is not a fiscal conservative.  Of course, almost nobody is once they are in office.  But Trump is not generally good on economics.  He has been decent in terms of reducing some regulatory burdens and reducing corporate income taxes.  He is a disaster when it comes to tariffs and overall government spending.

When Trump ran for the Republican nomination in 2015 and 2016, he was far from the best candidate for fiscally conservative Republicans.  Ted Cruz was better.  Rand Paul was better.  You could make an argument that someone like Marco Rubio would have been better.

But that is not the primary issue.  Republican voters were tired of politicians.  They were tired of Republican politicians without a backbone. They were tired of being told one thing and then getting another once the person got in office.  In many ways, they were right.

The reason Trump got the nomination is because he is a fighter.  He is an alpha male.  He won’t back down from a fight.  This is what many Republican voters wanted.  They trust Trump to take on the establishment and its media. The Republican voters were fed up with the Bushes and Romneys of the world.

There is great enthusiasm for Trump from his supporters.  There may be even more now than in 2016, but there is also greater hatred from the other side than in 2016.

Trump has been holding multiple rallies every day.  When you look at the size of the crowds, it is amazing.  He is getting tens of thousands of people at these rallies.  He is basically speaking in front of the equivalent of a football stadium audience (when stadiums were full) every day, especially when he does two or three rallies in a single day.  This is the live audience.  It doesn’t count how many people see some of it on television.

If Trump loses, there are tens of millions of people in the United States who will have lost their voice.  But these people won’t change any of their views.  They will still exist, even though I’m sure the powers-that-be would love to send them all to a reeducation camp of some sort.

Where will these people go for an outlet?  Who will be their voice?

If Trump does lose the election (legitimately or not), I think Trump still stays as the effective leader of the Republican Party, or at least the leader of a major faction of the Republican Party that has come to despise the establishment.

I have no idea who will run in 2024.  But until then, and maybe beyond, I think Trump remains the leader in many ways.  He will keep on using Twitter as long as he is allowed.  If he is kicked off the platform, he will use an alternative.

Mike Pence will not take over as a leader.  He is a politician.  Most Trump supporters know this.  Pence does not rock the boat.  He’ll do his best to defend Trump to appear to be a team player.  But he is an establishment guy who happens to be a little better on economics.  He will not fight the establishment the way Trump has.

There are no other major politicians who will do this either.  Even someone like Rand Paul will not do it.  There is a reason that Trump easily beat out Rand Paul in 2016 in the Republican primaries.  Rand Paul is not an alpha male like Trump.  Rand Paul also shows signs of wavering in his principles, unlike his father.  Paul has been much better since the 2016 primaries, but he still plays ball with the establishment up to a certain point.  Again, so does Trump, but his rhetoric is abrasive and largely anti establishment.

The anti establishment faction wants a fighter.  That is what it takes to take on the powerful interests in the swamp.  I don’t think Trump has drained the swamp, but he is shined a bright light on it.  We can see better just how thick the swamp is.

There is only one other person right now who can be seen as a major voice for the anti establishment people.  That is Tucker Carlson of Fox News.  It is amazing that Carlson has been allowed to stay on the air, especially in the primetime spot.  His ratings are far superior to any other political show on cable television.

Carlson speaks against the establishment.  He is a fighter.  He is extremely effective with his rhetoric.  I don’t agree with everything he says, but he is persuasive with his monologues and his interviews.  He will cover stories that nobody else in television media dare to touch.

I doubt that Tucker Carlson will run for political office.  I don’t want him to run.  He is far more effective doing what he does every night Monday through Friday.  The anti establishment people need a voice.  If Trump loses the election, they will really need an outlet.  I believe that Trump remains the voice for these people, but Carlson is not far behind.  These are the only two people I can think of.

I don’t know what Republican voters will do in 2024, assuming that Trump or Carlson is not running for president.  The Republican voters will never have this kind of enthusiasm for anyone else. They can more easily spot a fake politician – which is most of them – now that they have seen Trump.

If the nominee in 2024 is Mike Pence or Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz or some governor we have barely heard of, then many will relent and support the person as the lesser of two evils, especially if Kamala Harris is the other evil.  But there won’t be rallies with tens of thousands of people. There won’t be enthusiasm. Of course, there won’t be the anti Trump enthusiasm either.

It is important to recognize that there will be 60 million or more people who vote for Trump. If he loses, these people still exist, and they will want a voice.  If Biden loses, all of the anti Trump people still have a voice.  They have many voices.  It is the entirety of the establishment media, of politicians, of celebrities, of corporate executives, and the entire culture on display.

This is why it is tempting for me to vote for Trump, even though I disagree with many of his policies.  I hate everything that the establishment represents.  I hate the lying, the corruption, and the criminality.  I hate the political control and the brainwashing.

Trump is so imperfect in so many ways, yet he has managed to do what nobody else could.  He has exposed the establishment for the world to see for anyone who cares to look just a little bit with a clear head.

If Trump loses, he is not going away.  What he has done is not going away.  He is not exactly Obi-Wan Kenobi, but if you strike him down, the force may get stronger.  The tens of thousands of people attending his rallies every day will see Trump get struck down.  They have been watching it for over four years.  They hate the establishment more today than the day Trump was elected in 2016.  If Trump loses, the anti establishment people may or may not go into hiding, but I think they will only get stronger.

Stocks fell hard on Monday, October 26, 2020, just a week before the election.  The Dow was down 650 points, while the S&P was down nearly 2%.

There were several things attributed to the decline.  There is a question of whether there will be a “stimulus” deal. Interest rates have ticked higher. And there are reports about a spike in coronavirus cases.

It is no surprise the media is playing up that last item.  With just a week until the election, the powers-that-be want to make our lives seem as miserable as possible.

The truth is that nobody really knows what drives stock prices down (or up) on any given day except that buyers and sellers are meeting at a price below what the price had been the day before.

There are a lot of theories out there about what will happen with the stock market based on the election results.  A lot of the pro Trump people think that stocks will tank if Trump loses.  The anti Trump people aren’t necessarily saying that stocks will tank if Trump wins because they would generally rather not talk about the stock market.

I do think Biden had the right response in the last debate when Trump was touting the stock market. Sure, 401k accounts have gone up, but that really doesn’t help most people.  It certainly doesn’t help most people in the short run.  The people on so-called Main Street are more worried about their jobs than their stock portfolio, especially since most of them don’t have a stock portfolio.

Of course, it is the policies that Biden advocates that have caused much of the wreckage, particularly in regard to the lockdowns.

Anyway, I am not sure that the election results are going to matter much one way or another with regard to the stock market.  It could easily crash after the election, but it could just as easily happen over the coming week.

There is more free market rhetoric that comes out the mouths of Republicans.  But when it comes to policy, it doesn’t seem to matter that much.  We still get massive spending, massive debt, and massive monetary inflation.

It might hurt stocks a bit if corporate taxes go back up under Biden.  But Biden hasn’t been talking much about corporate tax rates. He talks more about marginal tax rates on high-income earners.

And even here, little changes have not seemed to matter over the years.  Taxes went up under Bill Clinton, but stocks mostly boomed. Now, part of this was a bubble that eventually popped, but I think most libertarians would agree that we were much better off economically in the 1990s than we are today.  That was the last time there was some fiscal sanity. The Republican-controlled Congress and the Clinton White House seemed to keep each other in check, and we almost had an actual balanced budget.

There is one thing that the stock investors don’t like.  That is uncertainty.  And there is plenty of uncertainty in the year 2020, and there is a lot of uncertainty with regard to the election.

The best short-term result for stock bulls is that there is a landslide either way.

Still, there are problems even here.  If Biden wins easily, there will still be questions about how he will govern. If all of Congress goes to a Democratic majority, I think this could really be seen as a threat for investors.

If Trump wins easily, then you have the threat of rioting and continued attempts by the establishment to make our lives as miserable as possible.  They will want to make sure that those tens of millions of Trump supporters pay a dear price.

Then there is the possibility that the election draws out in a contested legal battle.  What happens if nobody is willing to concede? What happens if there is no end in sight and there is talk of Nancy Pelosi becoming president in January?

This would spook the market more than anything.  There would be great instability.

No matter what happens, I still believe that stocks are in a massive bubble.  I thought it was the end of the bubble in March, but I somehow underestimated the power of massive Fed inflation.  I also underestimated the power of major stimulus and unemployment checks coming from the federal government.

I expect it will be a roller coaster ride from here.  It could be a great benefit for day traders who go in and out of the market quickly.  There will be a lot of volatility.

If Biden wins and stocks go down, don’t count on that becoming a permanent trend.  It’s possible it will just because it would have happened anyway, but uncertainty doesn’t typically last long when it comes to new presidents.

If you remember back to 2016, stock futures tumbled hard when it became evident that Trump was going to win the presidency.  Stocks opened the following day down, but it didn’t last long.  By the end of the week, most people realized that Trump was not going to be bad for stocks, or at least not any worse than a Hillary Clinton presidency would have.

So while I expect extra volatility due to the elections, I don’t expect the presidential election to be a long-term factor.  There are so many variables right now, don’t even bother trying to guess what will happen.  Again, this will only be good for day traders.

The final presidential debate of 2020 is done.  Prior to the debate, probably something around one-third of voters already voted. And a large majority of people who haven’t voted who watched the debate, most likely won’t change their mind.

But there is always that small fraction of voters who have yet to make up their mind.  And the choice doesn’t have to be “vote for Trump” or “vote for Biden”.

In my case, I haven’t fully decided.  I won’t vote for Joe Biden.  If I heard all of the right things from today to Election Day, then I could still possibly vote for Trump or Jo Jorgensen.  My most likely vote will be for “Other”.

There are so many areas where I disagree with Trump, but it is hard not to cheer for the guy because of his enemies.  The worst elements of society are his enemies, and there is a reason for that. They hate it when Trump tells the truth about certain things, and they hate it when Trump delegitimizes the establishment.  Trump is a threat to their power.  This includes the establishment media.

Overall, I thought both candidates performed well.  Biden stumbled over his words on more than one occasion, but he wasn’t a total train wreck.  I believe he flat-out lied several times, but it might not hurt him much because anyone who is undecided probably doesn’t know they were being lied to.

Trump did much better than the first debate.  The bad thing for Trump is that he started out shaky.  He was making some weird movements with his body in the first few minutes.  I have no idea what that was about.  And his first question was on the coronavirus, which I believe he handled poorly, at least at the beginning.  It got a lot better after that.  However, if there was someone who isn’t a political junkie who just turned in for the first five or ten minutes, they probably wouldn’t have been impressed with Trump.

The moderator somewhat exceeded my expectations, which isn’t saying much.  It was definitely a much better run debate than the last disaster with Chris Wallace.  Perhaps part of that is because the microphones could have been cut off during each candidate’s two minutes after the initial question.  Part of it is also that Trump just didn’t interrupt as much, which actually served him well.

There was one part early in the debate when Trump was talking about the coronavirus and opening up schools.  After Trump had finished, the “moderator” said something to the effect that young people can catch it and spread it.  But she then proceeded to ask Biden a question.  In other words, she was just interjecting to oppose Trump. A moderator should never counter a candidate’s point unless it is part of a follow-up question for that candidate.

Anyway, the rest of the debate wasn’t too bad.  Of course, she could have asked some more direct and stinging questions, but that is the case with most establishment media figures.

As I said, Trump didn’t start out well.  He was bad on the coronavirus when talking about a vaccine and blaming China.  He quickly got a lot stronger, as he talked about the cure being worse than the disease.

Biden was all over the place.  He said he didn’t want shutdowns and then immediately talked about closing bars and gyms in concerning areas.  I would hope that there are no bar owners or gym owners across America who would vote for Biden.

Biden actually had two libertarian moments in the debate, but I’ll get to that in a bit.

The elephant in the room is Hunter Biden and the emails from his laptop.  From a libertarian standpoint, the information is no shock.  They basically show that Joe Biden was skimming money from foreign countries by using his position.  His son was getting big payouts from foreign countries while funneling some of that money to Biden.

Joe Biden is a corrupt good old boy.  He is a politician.  He has done what most politicians do.  He was able to do a lot of it because he held such a high position of power.

I think the bigger story here is the media cover-up.  Most of the establishment media will barely cover the story.  And when it is covered, they just pretend like there is nothing there.  Or worse, they say that it is a plot by Iran and Russia.  It isn’t clear why Iran wants to see Donald Trump reelected.

I thought Trump did an ok job of addressing the subject.  The moderator asked one somewhat direct question on the topic, but it was easy for Biden to avoid

When pressed by Trump, Biden said that he hasn’t directly received any money from any foreign power ever.  This may have been a technical truth, but it is a lie.  In other words, Hunter Biden would receive money from foreign countries for favors done by his father.  Hunter would keep a bunch of the money, but also send some of it on to his father.  So Joe Biden didn’t technically receive money directly from a foreign power.  But he did receive money.

The problem with this topic in the debate is that most people who don’t support Trump have no idea what is going on.  I think Trump made a mistake in not getting to the very basics of the story. Trump should have directly asked Biden if it was Hunter’s laptop and if those emails are real.  Pin him down on a yes or no question.

The problem is that Biden was able to sidestep several times and even change the subject.  At one point, Biden somehow managed to turn the subject on to Trump’s taxes, and Trump actually bit on it.  Trump started defending his tax returns instead of sticking with the topic and going after the Biden corruption.

Biden said that Russia and Iran will pay a price for interfering with the election.  Biden actually mentioned Rudy Giuliani first, probably to preempt Trump attacking his dealings with Hunter Biden.  Trump was weak in his response and should have challenged the premise.

Trump talked about how he has been tough on Russia instead of initially calling the whole thing a hoax.  I don’t know if Trump understood the first time that Joe Biden was saying the Hunter email scandal was Russian interference.  It would have been a great time to ask for specifics.  “Are you saying that the computer repairman in Delaware where Hunter dropped off his laptop is a Russian spy?”  “How exactly did Russia get Hunter’s emails?”

It was later in the debate that Trump realized that Biden was accusing Russia of being involved in the laptop scandal.  He rhetorically asked if the laptop is a Russian hoax now, basically making fun of the notion.

Again though, I doubt that many anti Trump people even know what is being talked about.  If someone just watches the establishment media outlets, they probably barely knew anything about Hunter Biden’s laptop and the emails.  And for the few who were aware of the story at all, they were probably believing that somehow it was Russian and Iranian interference.

It’s just ridiculous. Whenever Biden talked about the subject, he was either trying to change the subject, or he was lying about it, or he was avoiding the question.  This is no surprise because how could he answer it truthfully and not look bad? Even though we all know it goes on in Washington DC, what Joe Biden and his son were doing were criminal acts.

Anyway, there were two somewhat libertarian moments that Biden had.  They showed Biden’s hypocrisy, but I see it as positive that he said these things.

First, there was a moment when Trump was talking about China and this was in reference to the impacts of his tariffs.  He said something to the effect of “I just gave 28 billion dollars to our farmers.”  Joe Biden said, “taxpayers” or “taxpayer”.  In other words, what Biden was saying is that Trump didn’t give anything to farmers.  It came from the taxpayers.  This is an elementary libertarian point that can be used on every subject dealing with government spending.  It was a good Biden moment from my perspective, but of course, Biden doesn’t say the same thing when it comes to almost anything else.

The second libertarian moment for Biden was when he said that nobody should go to jail for a drug problem.  Now I don’t believe Biden when he says this, and it is counter to nearly everything he has stood for in the past.  I mean, maybe he has changed his mind because of his son’s drug problem, but I highly doubt that’s it.  Most politicians would be happy to throw away people in jail for an offense in which their own family is exempt.

I believe Biden said this because it is a more popular position than it was in the past. Even in 2008 when Ron Paul was running for president on the Republican ticket, he would say that he opposed the federal war on drugs when asked.  He was mostly ridiculed.  In 2020, it is considered to be a quite reasonable position to say that nobody with a drug problem should go to jail just for the issue of drugs.

Libertarians see negatives everywhere, and to be sure, there are a lot of negatives to be seen. But let’s acknowledge that in the year 2020, Biden said that nobody should go to jail for a drug problem and this is considered acceptable.  In fact, the candidates were trying to outdo each other with regard to criminal justice reform.  This is one area where libertarians should truly try to form alliances with others in destroying the political war on drugs.

My overall assessment from the debate is that Trump won.  I have no idea if it will be enough.  The polls say that Biden is way ahead in the race, and many people have already voted.  But we know how the polls went in 2016.

The rallies for Trump have been enormous.  He has a huge base of enthusiastic fans.  There are a lot of people voting “for” Trump.  There is barely anyone voting “for” Biden.  But half the country hates Trump, so they will vote against him in the form of marking the ballot in favor of Biden.

We are not going to know the results on Election Day. There is a decent chance we still won’t know the outcome the day after.  2020 has already been a wild ride.  I don’t expect the election to be any different.

Yes, you read that right.  In 2016, I actually made a libertarian case for Hillary Clinton.

To be clear, I am not voting for Joe Biden or supporting Joe Biden in any way.  I am not even hoping he wins because I have no idea what it will bring.

There are obviously numerous reasons to be against Joe Biden from a libertarian perspective, or even just a human being perspective.  He is corrupt.  He is embedded in the establishment.  He is creepy.  He is pro war.  He is a proponent of big government.

The number one reason to be against Joe Biden is Kamala Harris.  In terms of policy, she is everything he is and worse.  She is more pro war, and she is an even bigger proponent of big government.  And given Biden’s age and mental capabilities, a Biden presidency has a high degree of probability of turning into a Harris presidency.

But that’s enough about how bad Biden is.  The point of this piece is to make a possible libertarian case for Biden. How could that be, given what I just said?

First, I believe that the establishment has put the American people through the wringer on purpose for the last 4 years.  The year 2020 is the culmination of this with riots and coronavirus lockdowns and mask mandates.

Before 2020, the establishment and its media tried its hardest to get rid of Trump or delegitimize him as much as possible.  They also sought to divide the country and make people angry at each other. It was continual lies and falsehoods.  The biggest one was the Russia hoax pushed by the most vile people in existence.  When that wasn’t successful, they turned to Ukraine.  They impeached Trump over a phone call by accusing him of withholding foreign aid for political purposes.  In other words, the House Democrats impeached Trump over the very thing that Joe Biden admitted to doing on video.

So again, you are probably wondering how this is a case for Biden.  Well, my only hope is that removing Donald Trump would bring back some civility.  To be sure, it is more the anti Trump people who are not civil, but a Biden presidency could perhaps bring down the tensions.  It doesn’t make the 60 million or so people who vote for Trump go away, but there is at least a possibility of some civility.

I have had some Trump supporters get mad at me for saying this.  I said that if getting rid of Trump means that life can go back to somewhat normal (pre-March 2020), then I may favor Biden.  I believe that the hysteria over coronavirus and the subsequent lockdowns and mask mandates were push hard by the establishment to try to make our lives as miserable as possible until the election in November. It worked.

I have no idea what will happen if Biden wins.  He has said at times that he may favor a national mask mandate or national lockdown.  I doubt this would happen.  And good luck trying to enforce it even if the orders came.  I was in North Carolina in July when there was a statewide mask mandate and most people weren’t wearing a mask where I was in the mountains.  If the local sheriff wasn’t going to enforce it, the governor wasn’t going to go there to enforce it himself.  Biden certainly won’t be coming to my city to enforce a mask mandate.

In fact, if Biden did try such a thing, it would probably advance the cause of liberty greatly. We would see the ideas of decentralization and state nullification take hold.  As libertarians, this is really what we want.  We want it done peacefully, but ignoring federal orders sure does set a precedent for other things.

At the same time, I’ll say that if Trump wins the presidency again, I hope that states like California will consider secession or some form of decentralization.  We should all cheer this on.

Anyway, let’s get back to Biden.  If the coronavirus magically dies down after the November election after a Biden win, then I will celebrate to a certain degree.  I want to go to concerts again.  I want to go to sporting events.  I want to walk into the grocery store without feeling like I’m in a hospital.

Again, some Trump supporters hate me for saying this because it seems like I am giving in to the mob. But I’m not actually endorsing or voting for Biden.  I’m just saying that my life will be happier if Biden wins and, as a result, life somewhat goes back to the way it was.  It’s not my fault that the majority of people are so incredibly gullible that they listened to the words of the lying establishment media. Many of them are still being extremely gullible, and I can’t help that.  These people are making our lives miserable, and we should certainly fight it.  But again, if a Biden presidency makes it all go away, I think I favor that from a selfish point of view.

The other libertarian case for a Biden presidency is that the economy is in complete shambles. I know Trump won’t admit this, and he’ll blame what problems are evident on the coronavirus and the lockdowns. But the economy was a ticking time bomb anyway before the lockdowns.  It is just so much worse now with the lockdowns and the incredible levels of government spending and monetary inflation that have taken place just in 2020.

Trump has been mostly horrible in terms of economic policies.  He has been decent (comparatively speaking) with regard to some regulations and corporate taxes.  But he is a big spender, and the debt is completely out of control at this point.  There are going to be major problems over the next 4 years.

If Trump is president, we get to hear about how Trump’s capitalist policies are destroying the economy.  It will be false of course, but the same gullible people wearing masks everywhere they go will believe it.

If Biden is president, they will try to blame Trump for the recession, inflation, or whatever the problems are.  But after a year or so, that won’t stick.  Biden and the left will get more of the blame.  So if we’re going to have an economic mess on our hands, it seems better if the more socialist side gets the blame.

I know there is great fear over what Biden might do in reaction to a major economic depression, but we should have that fear no matter who is president.  Can it get much worse than trillions and trillions of dollars in new debt in a 6-month period?  Can it get much worse than $3 trillion added to the Fed’s balance sheet?  Maybe it can get worse, but it could get worse with a Trump presidency too.

Maybe the best situation is for Biden to lose the election but then be coronated as the winner through fraud.  I would rather that than the other way around.  I want a Biden presidency that is not seen as legitimate.

I actually don’t mind that people try to delegitimize the Trump presidency, except I don’t agree with lying about it, and I don’t agree with trying to do it by favoring the establishment.  I care more about delegitimizing the establishment.  That usually includes the presidency, but Trump is a different story. While Trump does many things that favor the establishment, he has a very adversarial relationship with the establishment, if in rhetoric only.

In conclusion, I am not cheering for Biden or supporting him in any way.  In fact, I will take some pleasure in watching the faces of the establishment hacks if Trump wins, just as I did in 2016.  However, no matter who wins or who takes office in January 2021, it isn’t going to be pretty.  The economy will still be bad no matter what.

There is a case that a Biden presidency could be more beneficial to the cause of liberty in the long run.  It isn’t a strong case, but it is hard to see how four more years of Trump is going to bring us closer to liberty unless we see California secede.

Trump has served his purpose in exposing the establishment – sometimes on purpose and sometimes inadvertently – for anyone who cares to see it.  I’m not sure what more he can do at this point, but I’m open to suggestions.