I am going to be focusing a lot of energy on defeating the immoral, discriminatory, and unconstitutional executive order that is telling tens of millions of people that they have to get jabbed or else lose their job.  I believe it is the biggest and most widespread tyranny against Americans in my lifetime.

If the executive order goes through and is at least somewhat implemented, it is also going to have widespread impacts on the economy.  There are already shortages of staff in some places, including hospitals.  Just wait until 20% of the workforce quits (or get fired) because of the mandates.  Even if it is just 10%, it will have major ramifications.

More on all of that to come at a later time.

For today, the latest CPI numbers came out, and they were a little lower than expected.  The CPI for August 2021 came in at 0.3%, as did the median CPI.  The year-over-year CPI now stands at 5.3%, while the median CPI is 2.4%.

While there is a deceleration from previous months, it is still well over the Fed’s supposed 2% target for price inflation.

It enables the boom to keep going, it enables the Fed to keep creating money out of thin air, and it enables the malinvestment and the bubbles to continue for a little while longer.  Maybe the Fed will start to taper later this year, but it will still be adding money to its balance sheet.  Incidentally, the Fed’s balance sheet has now doubled from where it was in February 2020.

If price inflation keeps coming down, then it may point to a recession.  Even with an expanding money supply, conditions can tighten quickly.  If people become scared of the economic environment, they can change their habits quickly.

For some, it may mean not putting in a $100,000 swimming pool for the kids.  For some, it may mean not eating out at restaurants any more.

I am seeing more houses in my neighborhood up for sale.  It is still a hot neighborhood, but I think it is slowing down.  I wonder if the people selling are moving nearby.  I also wonder whether they are upgrading or downgrading.  Maybe a few are “cashing out”, taking their paper profits and making them actual profits, and renting.  You can only make money selling your house if you buy a cheaper house or if you rent until the market comes down.

The everything bubble continues for now.  Stock indexes are still near all-time highs, and cryptos, NFTS, and most other speculative assets (if you can even call them assets) are insane right now.

I will continue to not bet hard against the trend, while also warning that this bubble could blow at any time.

We have to get a recession at some point, unless Mises was wrong.  He said that the malinvestment would eventually be exposed, unless there is an ever-expanding money supply.  But then you would face a crack-up boom, which is hyperinflation.

We had a very brief recession in 2020 in technical terms, even though it was devastating for many small businesses.  The Fed went on a money creation spree, so the malinvestment from before was never shaken out.  When the shakeout does finally happen, it will be one for the record books.