There is a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, sort of. It is a “Memorandum of Understanding” (MoU). You can read the text here.
The war hawks are not happy with this thing, and it is easy to understand why. They are attacking the deal, but most are withholding really sharp criticism of Trump, who did their bidding for the last year or so.
The fact that the neoconservatives/ war hawks/ Israel firsters (they mostly overlap) are unhappy with this deal should give us a great deal of optimism. Even if the war against Iran was a huge mistake, and even if the peace plan involves spending more taxpayer money, it is probably the least bad outcome at this point.
So, I hope this MoU sticks and it becomes something of a permanent peace plan. I am not that optimistic because the Israeli state does not want peace, and Iran has already again closed the Strait of Hormuz because Israel is not withdrawing from Lebanon.
The fact that Israel was supposedly not involved in this peace plan says a lot. It wouldn’t have happened if Israel had been involved. The problem is that the agreement states that Israel will stand down, which includes in Lebanon.
Like any agreement, it is the consequences that matter. What happens if Israel doesn’t abide?
If I were an Iranian official, I would want something in writing from the United States that the U.S. will stop sending any money or weapons to the state of Israel if Israel does not stand down.
The JCPOA with a Reconstruction Fund
The MoU is supposed to enforce that Iran will not get a nuclear weapon. But Iran already agreed to that many years ago in the JCPOA, which included inspections. The JCPOA was signed under Obama, which was one of the few good things that Obama did while in office.
Trump tore up the JCPOA in his first term. But even after Iran was attacked in the summer of 2025, Iranian leadership was still agreeing to inspections to ensure they did not develop a nuclear weapon.
(It is the height of hypocrisy that the U.S. government demand that another nation not have a nuclear weapon, but Iran was still willing to go along with that to avoid a conflict.)
Now, Trump is bragging that he made sure that Iran won’t get a nuclear weapon. This MoU looks a lot like a return to the JCPOA, except:
- Iran may get to charge a “toll” for the passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz after 60 days (Item #5). Remember, prior to 2026, there never was a toll going through this waterway.
- The U.S. will “remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final Deal.” (Item #4). It’s hard to say what constitutes “proximity”. Is this 5 miles, 100 miles, or 300 miles?
- There is a “mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 Billion, for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” (Item #6). That means Iran will get a minimum of $300 billion. That is not $300 million. That is 1,000 times that amount. It’s not exactly clear who will be forking over this money, but it is hard to believe that some of this won’t be coming from U.S. taxpayers.
- Iran will get back “frozen or restricted funds and assets” (Item #11).
- The U.S. will terminate all sanctions against Iran (Item #7).
Unless this is one giant bluff by Trump, it is clear that Iran has Trump by the testicles. It is so bad that Trump has to make Netanyahu and other Israeli officials steaming mad.
Maybe Iran should have demanded that Israel undergo nuclear inspections as part of this deal.
Somebody somewhere must have told Trump that Iran still has missiles and can still do damage. And if the oil isn’t flowing, the price will continue to go higher, and we could be looking at something like a global depression.
So, after death and destruction, destroyed military bases, and higher oil prices, it has resulted in something resembling the JCPOA with a whole bunch of new benefits showered upon Iran.
The Frozen Assets
As mentioned above, part of this MoU says that Iran will get back funds and assets that had previously been frozen. Of course, these assets never should have been frozen in the first place. It was theft on the part of the U.S. government.
The war hawks are heavily criticizing this as giving money to Iran. But this is Iran’s money. They are just getting it back. (I’m not talking about the $300 billion for reconstruction.)
But there is an important point to be made here. Republicans have been openly critical of Obama’s Iran deal because, they say, he gave them billions of dollars. This was never truthful because the Obama deal simply allowed Iran to get some of their own money back.
More importantly, Mr. Donald Trump himself was critical of Obama and the JCPOA for supposedly handing over billions of dollars to Iran.
Hey Trump, at least when Obama did it, he didn’t start a war, get a bunch of military bases destroyed, and give control to Iran over the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump Critical of Israel
It’s hard to say how much of this is a show and how much of it is real. JD Vance has been sending warning shots to Israeli leaders saying that Trump is the only leader in the world outside of Israel who even likes Israel. Therefore, Vance says, they should be nice to Trump.
Trump questioned the other day about the proportionality of Israel’s response to an attack. He asked whether they really needed to blow up an entire apartment building in Lebanon and kill innocent people.
This is coming from a guy who, just a couple of months ago, threatened to destroy an entire civilization. It doesn’t get any richer than that.
The War Hawks vs. Trump
After the war started against Iran, I predicted that the war hawks (who were previously never-Trumpers) would eventually turn on Trump. They are now turning on him because of this deal with Iran.
Trump has JD Vance on clean-up duty, including with an appearance on Megyn Kelly’s show. Vance is trying to get back some of the support from the America first crowd that didn’t like this war.
While people like Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly may praise Trump for making peace with Iran, I don’t think they are ever going back to supporting Trump the man.
Before Trump even went to war against Iran this year, he already had gone to war with the true America firsters. He got rid of MTG and was on his way to getting rid of Thomas Massie. He had already gone after Tucker Carlson. Trump has attacked many people who previously supported him. Does he really think he can get them back just by sending Vance out on the circuit?
You might see Trump hit an all-time low in approval for any president in history. He has the hardcore MAGA who will support him no matter what. But even here, he seems to be weakening. What do they do when they turn on Fox News and hear about how their wonderful president capitulated to Iran?
On this peace deal with Iran, I support Trump/ Vance over the war hawks because I want peace. But it doesn’t change the fact that Trump is a war criminal. He can’t undo his previous crimes. He didn’t have to choose this war. He didn’t have to buddy up with the neocons while going hard against Massie. He didn’t have to blatantly lie about blowing up a school in Iran with young girls.
I am hesitant to criticize this MoU because I want peace. And this MoU is about the least bad option at this point. At the same time, we shouldn’t forget that this was completely unnecessary. Trump could have signed this exact same deal months ago without the killing and destruction. In fact, he could have signed a much better deal that didn’t shower all of these extra things to Iran.
But Trump chose to side with the war hawks. He listened to Lindsey Graham over Tucker Carlson. Now the war hawks are against Trump again as soon as he lightened up on the war making. Trump deserves everything bad and more that is happening to him. I can’t not criticize him after this complete and utter disaster that he has given us. At the same time, I pray for peace.