The latest consumer price index (CPI) numbers were released, and it isn’t pretty.  The CPI went up 0.6% for the month of January 2022.  Year-over-year price inflation now stands at 7.5%.

Even the less volatile median CPI went up 0.6% for the month, and the year-over-year median CPI stands at 4.2%.

In other words, from January 2021 to January 2022, your dollars have depreciated in value by 7.5%.  If you were buying a house or a used car, you probably did a lot worse than 7.5%.

After almost a decade and a half of loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, the Fed is now forced to address the issue of inflation.  Of course, the Fed’s massive increase in its balance sheet is the inflation, but the prices are finally starting to reflect it.

It is now widely expected that there will be multiple Fed rate hikes in the coming months.  This means that the Fed will raise its target range for the federal funds rate, which largely impacts short-term interest rates.

Unless something drastic happens like a massive stock market crash, then we should expect short-term interest rates to rise this year.  They will finally move up and away from being near zero.

It is less clear where longer-term rates will go.  The 10-year yield has hit 2%, which is higher than where it’s been recently, but it is still very low compared to history.

If short rates go up and long rates stop going up, then we will see a flattening of the yield curve.  If the yield curve inverts later this year, this will be a strong signal to not only sell equities, but to short them.

Even with an inverted yield curve where short-term rates go higher than long-term rates, it can take time for everything to play out.  It’s hard to believe, but we could still be over a year away before the Everything Bubble finally starts to implode.  Until we get a clearer signal from the yield curve, I would be hesitant to bet against the market at this point.

Real Wages and Living Standards are Going Down

Think about what a 7.5% price inflation rate means for middle class America.  It means that living standards are going down.  Maybe taking on debt or just not saving as much covers some of this up temporarily, but it inevitably means a decline in lifestyle.

There is no way that real wages are going up or even staying the same.  While the labor market is good these days for those looking for work, companies can’t just pay massive increases to employees without suffering a loss in profitability.

Wages are not going to keep up with the rate of price inflation, especially at this level.  And even if they supposedly do, you have to think through how well people really are doing.

Let’s say that you have your annual review at work with Corporation ABC.  Your boss says that you have been doing a good job and that you have become very reliable since starting at Corporation ABC 5 years ago.  He tells you the great news.  You are getting a salary increase of 7.5%.

The problem is that you have more experience now and are a bigger benefit to your employer than you were last year, let alone 5 years ago.  But your wages are only keeping pace with inflation, so you haven’t really gotten a raise even though your value to the company has increased.

But are your wages even keeping pace with inflation?  If we accept the government statistics, then prices went up 7.5% over the past year.  You were already paying the higher prices before you got your “raise” of 7.5% from your employer. That doesn’t make up for paying the higher grocery bill last month.  It briefly catches you up to the Federal Reserve.

Now the process starts all over again.  You have to wait another year before another “raise” at work while prices relentlessly climb higher in the meantime.

It gets worse.  When you get that 7.5% increase, you have to pay payroll taxes and income taxes at your highest marginal tax rate.  That 7.5% may only be 5.5%.

Unfortunately, the government doesn’t tell you that you don’t have to pay any taxes on that additional 7.5% of your income because it is just making up for the Federal Reserve’s inflation of the money.  There may be an increase in the exemption amount on your tax return, but it will not cover the difference.  Plus, the horrible payroll taxes come out of every dollar you earn without adjustment.

So your 7.5% raise may end up being a 5.5% raise to cover the 7.5% that prices went up last year.  Does this sound like a good deal for middle class America?  How is that working out for everyone?

But the government can spend (waste) trillions of dollars on everything under the sun while imposing rules that make our lives more difficult and costly.

There is only one solution to all of this.  The Federal Reserve must stop creating money out of thin air and supporting the massive government debt.  If the government massively cuts its spending while the Fed stops its money creation, then the inflation will stop.  It’s that simple.

Meanwhile, middle class America takes it on the chin.  Real wages are going down.  It will feel more real when the Everything Bubble finally collapses.

We are living through a time when some are trying to censor the speech of others.  This is happening both through government and private individuals and businesses.

When Neil Young called for Spotify to remove Joe Rogan’s content or else to remove his, this is a private individual acting voluntarily as far as we know.  He simply didn’t like some of the things that were being said on Rogan’s programs, or maybe Young just didn’t like what others were saying what was being said on Rogan’s programs.  My guess is that he didn’t listen to more than a few minutes of a Rogan episode.

In many cases, there is a blurred line between private individuals and companies and government.  This is particularly true when it comes to large companies.  When Congress calls the CEOs of major social media companies to testify, and then we see these companies censoring certain people, is this really just market action?

The government may not be explicitly threatening these companies to ban certain speech, but there is an implicit threat that these companies could find trouble in the form of investigations, tax audits, and future regulations if they don’t “behave” correctly and ban what is deemed unacceptable speech.

It’s sad that people have to be reminded of this, but the point of free speech is that unpopular speech be allowed.  In this case, it is unpopular speech for the establishment.

I can’t remember a time when I have seen this hardcore push for censorship.  There was definitely a lot of sensitivity after 9/11, and there is the example of Bill Maher getting in trouble for saying the terrorists weren’t cowards.

However, after 9/11, if someone went against the establishment narrative, it was more common to see the person ignored or attacked.  There usually weren’t calls for censorship.  This was also true in the lead up to the war in Iraq in 2002 and 2003.

It’s important to acknowledge that part of the reason for this increased call for censorship is because there is more speech to be censored.  Before the internet became widespread, most people got their news from one of three or four major networks and maybe a newspaper.  The only major place with somewhat alternative views was conservative talk radio, but even much of this still followed the establishment line on the major issues.

Now we have podcasts, blogs, social media, videos, and millions of websites that offer alternative viewpoints.  This is why there is so much call for censorship.  It’s because the power elite are having trouble controlling the narrative.

It’s also important to acknowledge that this isn’t the first time free speech has been under major attack.  In fact, it was much worse in previous times, even in the United States.

The ink was barely dry on the Bill of Rights when the Alien and Sedition Acts were imposed, which basically prohibited people from criticizing the government.  There were also periods of major tyranny and bans of speech during war, most notably during the so-called Civil War and World War I.

Why Not Debate?

Whenever there have been calls for censoring speech, it almost always means that the person or group has bad motives, whether it is coming from a government or a company or an individual.  They are purposely trying to shut others up because they don’t like what they have to say, and they don’t want to engage in any debate.

It is never my instinct to want to censor somebody when they are saying something I don’t like.  I may want them to shut up and go away, but I don’t want to stop them from speaking.  I certainly don’t want the government to take any action.

Perhaps it gets a little tricky when dealing with companies providing a platform.  I am understanding to a point of not wanting to allow people speaking who are doing so for the reason of purposely degrading others.

If we look at Joe Rogan, he wasn’t purposely trying to degrade others or spread hate.  He interviews people with different viewpoints.  Sometimes he’ll have a guest on one week who contradicts what another guest said the previous week.  He is trying to get different viewpoints out there while making it interesting and entertaining.

Why doesn’t Neil Young address specifically what he thinks is “misinformation”?  Why doesn’t he go on Rogan’s show and speak about where he thinks some of the doctors on Rogan’s show got it wrong?  I think Rogan would probably have Young on his show.  Even before Young’s ultimatum to Spotify, Rogan may have had him on the show.

When it comes to corporations, I think sometimes they are just trying to minimize the headaches.  That is why the default position is to follow the establishment narrative.  This also tends to be a leftist narrative, as the left is far more destructive in its protests.

But there are many people and many companies who go out of their way to try to censor others on other platforms.  They would rather censor than debate.  It’s because they know they are incapable of debating well.  It is easier to shut the other side up.

When you look at COVID and the vaccines, there are some major figures who have arisen who oppose the hysteria and the vaccine mandates.  Some of them even question the safety and efficacy of the COVID vaccines.  The COVID hysterics are trying to get these people censored.  Yet, most of these people would be more than happy to debate Joe Biden or Dr. Fauci or Bill Gates or the CEO of Pfizer or any high-profile COVID hysteric and vaccine pusher.  In fact, they would probably debate someone who is only somewhat prominent.

But these debates don’t happen because the COVID hysterics and vaccine pushers (the tyrants) don’t want to debate.  They will have to deal with facts and arguments, which they can’t.  They will have to deal with explaining the irrationality of the lockdowns and the vaccine mandates.

Sanjay Gupta of CNN went on Rogan’s show, and he had to deal with questions that he wasn’t accustomed to.  He couldn’t defend CNN’s trashing of Rogan over taking Ivermectin, which the establishment referred to as horse paste.

Could you imagine Dr. Peter McCullough or Dr. Robert Malone debating someone like Fauci?  Imagine some of these challenging questions.

“The CDC admitted that the COVID vaccines don’t stop transmission, so why are there vaccine mandates if they don’t stop the spread?”

“Dr. Fauci, you said in 2020 that PCR tests run at 35 cycles or higher are not reliable because they produce false positives.  So why, from near the beginning, was the FDA recommending to run the PCR tests up to 40 cycles or more?”

“Why did the FDA authorize the Pfizer vaccine when more people in the trial died in the vaccinated group than the non vaccinated group?”

“Why did the FDA and CDC count anyone as a COVID death if they died within 4 weeks of testing positive, even if COVID wasn’t the reason for their death?  How many people would die of the common cold each year if we counted it the same way?”

“Why did the FDA claim that 98% of hospitalizations were non vaccinated people using data going back to January 2021 when most people were not fully vaccinated at that time?  And why do we not get any current statistics on the percentage of vaccinated hospitalizations?”

“In 2021, why did the FDA change its guidelines that they would only count someone who is vaccinated as having COVID if the test is run at 28 cycle or less while not having the same standard for those who aren’t vaccinated?”

Imagine a three-hour debate with these kinds of questions.  I’m sure someone like Fauci would have some weasel words to answer the questions (or avoid the questions), but it would severely expose him.  Most people don’t even know the facts presented within the questions.  It would be a devastating blow to the COVID narrative.

Now imagine a three-hour debate or interview with Neil Young (or some other celebrity) being challenged with some of these things.  He would be tripping all over himself.  He would walk away with his head down in shame.

The reason most people are trying to censor others and calling it “misinformation” is because they are afraid of others hearing what is being said.  They are afraid of the truth getting out there.  They are afraid the agenda might be exposed for what it really is.

Even for people who truly believe the lies, they want to stick their head in the sand and don’t want alternative viewpoints.  They have no curiosity, and they have no desire to hear anything outside of what they already “know” to be true.

Whenever someone’s primary tactic is censorship instead of actually debating or trying to refute what was said, it should immediately make you suspicious of the person’s motives.

This isn’t true 100% of the time, but when someone is trying to censor someone else, it is usually the person being censored who is closer to the truth.

The mob is going after Joe Rogan.  By that, I mean the establishment mob.  It is the mob trying to censor anything that goes against the official narrative, especially when it comes to COVID.

I like Joe Rogan.  I am not a frequent listener of his podcast, but I will occasionally listen to clips of his show or even an entire episode if it is about a subject that interests me.  I have a friend who listens to him, and he would send me episodes that he thought would interest me.  This goes back at least a few years (before COVID hysteria).

I appreciate that Rogan has on differing points of view.  At the same time, I have expressed frustration with him.  I am more often frustrated when he has a guest on with whom I don’t agree because I feel like Rogan could pin the person down more.

I think there is a difference between challenging someone and being rude.  You can politely challenge someone on a topic.  And if the person avoids a question, I don’t think it is inappropriate to ask the question again with a hint that the original question wasn’t answered.  I understand these are “guests” on his show, but I think anyone going on there with strong opinions should expect a little bit of a challenge, or at least having Rogan play devil’s advocate.

I watched/ listened to the two full episodes that became controversial.  One was with Dr. Peter McCullough, and the other was with Dr. Robert Malone.  In total, this was about 6 hours of COVID talk.

Since the two doctors offer differing viewpoints on COVID and the vaccines as compared to the establishment narrative, the mob had to attack Rogan.  They know that tens of millions of people heard at least some of what was said.

It really heated up when musician Neil Young said that he didn’t want his music sold on the same platform as Rogan’s podcast.  So Spotify actually removed Young’s music.  Then the mob really came after Rogan and Spotify.

Spotify felt compelled to issue a statement saying that it would put a warning label on certain content to warn people of possible “misinformation”.

Rogan also posted a selfie video where he somewhat apologized for causing so much controversy and to thank Spotify for all that the company has done.  Rogan put out an olive branch, even complimenting Neil Young and his music and telling a story of working at a Young concert when he was younger.

I think he was trying to present himself as humble and as someone who wanted to get along.  He wanted to make it clear that he isn’t some kind of vicious animal or right-wing extremist (which he isn’t).  In this sense, he did a pretty good job.

At the same time though, he showed severe weakness, and I fear that the mob will capitalize on this and keep going after him until he completely folds.  Rogan said that he will try to balance things out on his shows.

What does that mean?

I feel like Rogan is accepting the premise set by his haters.  They are saying that he is spreading misinformation.  Rogan correctly says that he is just having a conversation with people, and also that he has never claimed to be perfect.  That’s all fine, but he shouldn’t accept or leave unchallenged that he is spreading misinformation.

He can’t guarantee that everything every one of his guests says on his show will be 100% accurate.  He had someone from CNN on his show, so we know that can’t be the case.

What about all of the misinformation from Dr. Fauci, and the CDC, and the FDA, and the pharmaceutical companies, and from the establishment news media?  What about the misinformation from the president of the United States who said that if you get the COVID vaccine then you can’t die?

CNN never balances out its narrative.  It is one viewpoint only, and that is to follow the science, which is whatever the official opinion-makers have to say that day.  Whatever the current science is that day, you should follow it like an obedient citizen because that is what CNN is telling you to do, and it is backed up by the “experts”.

I’ve never heard any alternative viewpoints coming from CNN since the COVID hysteria began.  It’s not that I watch CNN much, but I’m sure I would have heard about it.  But CNN will gladly spread misinformation about Joe Rogan and say that he is taking horse paste for his COVID.

If Rogan is spreading misinformation, then what is CNN and the rest of the corporate media doing?

Rogan has absolutely no obligation to balance out his show any more than Tucker Carlson does.  If anything, we need more of the episodes that the mob is complaining about.  We need more Rogan in order to balance out what just about every television station and newspaper across the country have to say.

Rogan probably has something like 10 million listeners.  If CNN got one-tenth of the audience for one its shows, it would be considered a great success.

Still, everywhere you turn outside of the alternative media, it is the same talking points of COVID hysteria.  They have finally started to concede that maybe lockdowns weren’t such a good idea and that maybe masks aren’t that effective.  Even this is done in near unison.

Rogan is a platform where people can hear alternative voices.  He just happens to be one of the biggest platforms because his show was already popular.  So it is no surprise that the mob is going after him with everything.

But here is my message to Joe Rogan.  Don’t give in to the mob.  You can be kind and respectful in what you say, but you don’t have to apologize to them when you did nothing wrong.  You don’t have to meet any of their demands.

If you start bending to them, they will only demand more.  You can try to “balance out” your programming, but it will only strengthen the enemy.  They won’t be satisfied with that.  They will only be satisfied when you stop giving a platform to those with alternative viewpoints that are counter to the official narrative.

After the beating that Sanjay Gupta (of CNN) took when he was on the show, I don’t think many high profile people will want to be on there.  They are not used to being challenged on their COVID hysteria with facts and reasoning.  I don’t think Dr. Fauci will be sitting down for a 3-hour interview to talk about PCR tests, vaccines, and gain-of-function research.  That’s just my guess.

You can’t ever please the mob unless you join them.  You don’t have to join them.  You don’t have to apologize.

Joe Rogan has a massive platform.  If Spotify ends up folding and dumping Rogan (and costing them a lot of money), Rogan can find another outlet.  People will follow him.

We need these alternative voices.  But we also need courage, which is what has been lacking the most over the last 2 years.  It isn’t just common sense.  It is courage that has really been the distinguishing factor.

I hope that Joe Rogan finds the courage to not kneel before the mob and that he continues to spread information to people seeking the truth.  We don’t expect perfection from your guests or you.  We expect an open dialogue where the truth can be sought.

If you mentioned vaccine passports in 2020, you were labeled a crackpot conspiracy theorist.  And then vaccine mandates quickly became a thing in 2021.

Can you ever remember something pushed so hard in a seemingly coordinated effort?  Even in the lead up to the Iraq War, there was some dissent that was allowed to be heard.

It is hard to believe we are in 2022, and we are still dealing with vaccine mandates.  It is an extremely important fight to win for the pro liberty side.  It isn’t even an issue of whether you are pro vax, anti vax, or somewhere in between.  It is an issue of whether you think others – particularly the state – have a moral right to dictate what you put into your body.

There has been a mix of wins and setbacks over the last couple of months.  One moment I think we are losing the battle. The next moment I think we are winning it.

The Supreme Court issued mixed decisions.  It struck down the OSHA mandate, while upholding the mandate on most healthcare workers.

The big cities in blue states all seem to be going towards vaccine passports, but I also hear stories about businesses not really enforcing them.

There is a massive convoy of truckers in Canada, which is encouraging, but it also has the potential to end badly.  Hopefully it won’t end as badly as what happened on January 6, 2021 in Washington DC.  The Canadian government has been extremely totalitarian through all of the COVID hysteria.

Then again, England has been rather totalitarian as well, but it was announced there that the restrictions and vaccine mandates would end.  It may just be because Boris Johnson was caught being a hypocritical liar and not following his own rules.

All I know is that it is an important fight, and it should be won based on principle.  It is rather ridiculous at this point, as it is clear that the COVID “vaccines” do not prevent transmission (which was previously labeled as “misinformation”).

The only argument they have left is that if you get sick, you will get less sick if you are vaccinated.  But if that’s the case, then why isn’t the government mandating that you eat vegetables and not drink soda in order to have your job?  I probably shouldn’t give the tyrants any ideas.

Even if the vaccines did help prevent transmission, I would still oppose all government mandates, as should anyone who cares about liberty.  It is not up to the government to determine what is and isn’t good for our health, and there is no justification in a moral world of imposing the threat of violence in order to get people to comply.

Where Did the Vaccine Passport Originate?

I don’t even know what a vaccine card looks like.  The people who are pro vaccine passport won’t call it a passport.  They call it a card.  That’s fine, but it’s still the same thing.  It is the idea of having to “show your papers”.  This is not representative of a free society.

I had to look up what a COVID vaccine card looks like.  How is it that this was available on day one of the rollout of the vaccines?  How was it universally distributed throughout the country?  It’s almost as if the government was ready for it.

I don’t have vaccine cards from vaccines that I was given as a child.  Children today don’t have vaccine passports for any vaccines other than COVID vaccines, or at least not in the same way.  A parent would have to call their child’s pediatrician to get their shot records, which are often required for school.  (I hope more people start to call this into question.)

The power elite had already planned these vaccine mandates.  Otherwise, why were these vaccine cards for COVID available from day one?  Why, in late 2020, was it necessary to have proof of a COVID vaccination?  Did anyone walk into a clinic or vaccination center and get the vaccine without getting a card?  Did the people working there insist that they leave with proof that they were vaccinated?

How long were these vaccine cards being planned for?  Was it before the FDA granted emergency-use authorization?

These are all interesting questions.  If the vaccine cards were available from day one, then there was obviously a plan to use them.

Motives

We will never know the motives of some people.  The average person on the street who advocates for vaccine mandates is probably just a control freak who buys into the establishment narrative.  The person is probably just an idiot on this subject and has an authoritarian streak.  As an individual, they thankfully possess little power other than being one voice in support of the authoritarians.

When it comes to the power elite, I think even there the motives can differ.  The corporate executives at the pharmaceutical companies probably just want to make money and cover their behinds.  They probably don’t have a depopulation agenda.  Bill Gates might have a motive of depopulation, but he also probably thrives on the power he exerts.

With Fauci, he may be pushing the vaccines for a combination of money, power, and prestige.

With Biden, well, he is just an idiot.  He is also part of the evil, but he is just listening to his evil advisors.  Biden is certainly a totalitarian and a criminal, and he enjoys his power, but he could probably get this thrill with a host of other issues too.  He just happens to be president (or whatever he is) at a time when the establishment is pushing vaccines, so he had no trouble being a stooge spokesman and implementing authoritarian mandates.

I think there is something to the theory that this is part of the government’s quest for some kind of a social credit system like China.  If these vaccine passports are allowed to stand, then it will certainly lead to more measures down the road.

Still, I want to make clear that these vaccine mandates are just about as totalitarian as you can get.  It is criminal for anyone to force these experimental jabs on others.

And yes, they are experimental, as we don’t know the long-term impacts of the vaccines.  We also don’t have good data on the shorter-term impacts because the government and pharmaceutical companies are purposely trying to cover up adverse effects.  Even on a short-term basis, it doesn’t look very good when the Pfizer trial had more of the vaccinated people die than the non-vaccinated.

(See page 23 of this document: https://www.fda.gov/media/151733/download)

Whatever the motives for pushing these vaccines and the mandates, they are being done entirely by evil people and ignorant people.  There is no third option.  I think the general public that supports these measures are more ignorant than evil.  I think the people in positions of power are more evil than ignorant.

This is a fight we must win in the United States.  If liberty dies here, it won’t be good for the rest of the world.  The vaccine mandates must be defeated, regardless of the motives behind them.

As the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet approaches the $9 trillion mark, the FOMC released its latest monetary policy statement.  The Fed expects to fully taper (stop inflating) in the next couple of months.  And if nothing crazy happens (which is unlikely), then we should expect to see the federal funds rate target raised from near zero in 2022.

It is almost unthinkable where we are now if you step back and take a look at the big picture.

At one point in 2008, the Fed’s balance sheet was less than $1 trillion.  Here we are less than 14 years later with the balance sheet nearing $9 trillion.

While the Fed is tapering, it is still inflating at this point, even if at a slower pace.  The Fed has kept short-term rates near zero while the government continues to increase the national debt in the trillions every year.  This is the current policy while the government’s official price inflations statistics show 7% annual price inflation.

In the late 1970s, the official price inflation was in the double digits.  Some will argue that if we calculated current price inflation the same way it was done in the past, then we would be in double digits now.  But even aside from that, the Fed is far more “accommodative” now than it was in the 1970s.

If the Fed raises its target rate in 2022 (if there is no crash), then where is the rate going?  Are they going to a whopping 1% interest rate while price inflation is roaring at 7%?

I have already pointed out that real wages are going to fall for most people.  How many corporations are giving out annual raises of 7% for doing the same job?  And are employees going to get anything above this for actually gaining skills and experience on the job?

So workers are falling behind, generally speaking, but at least they can make up for it over time.  While middle class America is losing purchasing power, it is better to be a worker where you can at least make up some of the difference.

But what about investors?  What is someone supposed to do with any wealth that has already been accumulated in the past?  It is hard enough for people who are actually invested in investing.  In other words, even if you follow the markets closely and understand the financial markets to some extent, it is hard to know what to do.  It is almost impossible for someone who has very limited knowledge of the financial markets.

Investing and Speculating

The government and the Federal Reserve have, to a large degree, forced regular people to become speculators.  This is why we have an Everything Bubble.

It makes some sense that real estate prices have boomed in most areas.  It is the easiest thing for novice investors to understand.  If you don’t know what to do with your money, and you sense that you are losing purchasing power, it makes some sense to put it into real estate where you live.  At least you can understand it, and at least you can slowly pay down the mortgage in depreciating dollars over time.

At the same time, you can’t usually retire on your house.  You need somewhere to live.  It’s possible that you could buy a house and see it appreciate in dollar terms many times over.  When you go to retire, you could sell the house, downsize, and pocket the profit.  But how many people will do this, and how profitable will this be?  And what happens if the plan doesn’t work out?

And then there are people who have a little bit of knowledge, but sometimes a little bit of wisdom can be detrimental.  It reminds me of all of the people who thought they were virus experts in 2020 who got almost everything wrong.  The same can go for investing.

There are many in the financial independence (FI) community, along with followers of people like Suze Orman and Dave Ramsey who have some wisdom.  FI people will hate that I lump them in with followers of Orman and Ramsey because many FI people think of themselves as being more sophisticated, which may be true to some degree.  However, these two groups have something in common, and that is to primarily invest in low-cost broad-based index funds.

The problem is that this strategy lacks diversification.  If there is a major crash in stocks while price inflation is still high, the Fed may be limited in its ability to bail out stock investors without risking hyperinflation.  If that is the choice, the Fed will let the stock market and its investors suffer.

I always point to the example of Japan, which is a first-world country.  If you invested in the stock market there in 1989, you would still be down today.

I don’t predict this will happen in the United States, but what if we had something half as bad?  What if we had a prolonged bear market for 10 years?  All of the index fund investors would be severely broken.  Most of their early retirement plans would be shattered into pieces.

This is why I continue to recommend the permanent portfolio, or something similar, for the majority of your financial investments.  It is not glamorous.  It isn’t going to make you ultra wealthy, but it can help you protect and grow the wealth you have accumulated.

The permanent portfolio is insurance first, and growth second.

This is why it is unfair to compare it to the overall stock market, especially in recent times.

If you own an insurance policy on your car and you don’t make a claim for the year, was it a bad investment?  You paid those premiums, and they didn’t return anything.  You just lost your money.

This is what you should think when your stock investing friend is bragging about his 25% return last year.

Even the experts can’t predict where this market is going.  It has been incredibly volatile lately.  This could mean a bear market ahead.  Or maybe it will settle down and we will see new all-time highs later this year.  It is impossible to say.

You don’t have to predict the future to prepare for the future.  I think the permanent portfolio concept offers novices and experts alike the opportunity to prepare for an uncertain future.

Stock investors were rocked on Monday morning.  At one point during the day, the Dow was down over 1,000 points.  The U.S. stock indexes had already been having a rough month before this.  But by the end of the day, the indexes actually turned positive.

The so-called cryptocurrencies, most notably Bitcoin, have also been hit hard lately.  Bitcoin is down almost half of its all-time high last year.

This could be the beginning of the end for cyrptocurrencies.  They really represent the ultimate speculation of this boom phase.  Most of them will be wiped out to zero, and even Bitcoin will likely be hit hard enough that it ends up close to zero.

I am not certain that this is the end of the bull market in stocks.  It may or may not be.  There have been big pullbacks of 10 percent or so in the past.  And then, within a couple of months, indexes would be hitting their all-time highs again.

We don’t have the predictor of the inverted yield curve with the same degree of certainty as in the past.  The yield curve inverted in 2019, and we saw a brief downturn in March and April of 2020, which was blamed on the virus.  So it isn’t clear if we need another inverted yield curve in order to see a recession.

I have no doubt that this is an unsustainable bubble, but we don’t know if this is the beginning stage of the popping.

There is also a question of the Fed.  Jerome Powell and company are faced with 7 percent annual price inflation, so it makes it rather difficult to step in and up the quantitative easing.  They can’t lower the interest rates unless they want to take the federal funds rate into negative territory.

The only thing Powell and company might do is speak in order to calm markets, if the downturn continues.  They may say that they will taper at a slower pace than originally anticipated, meaning that the Fed will keep creating new money out of thin air for a little longer than expected.  Maybe this will be enough to do the trick of stopping the bleeding on Wall Street, if needed.

The Face of the Bubble

The Fed and the government have caused the bubble, but it still requires that enough people react to the stimulus and bid up asset prices.

I think the face of this boom is Cathie Wood, who has become quite famous in the financial community with her ARK Innovation fund (symbol: ARKK).

Cathie Wood has a strategy of buying up assets that are hot.  If they are getting a lot of headlines like Tesla and Bitcoin, then they become part of her fund.  To describe this more accurately, she likes to buy things that are speculation that appear to be overvalued with the hope of them becoming even more overvalued.

She may be rich because she is a famous fund manager, but you aren’t going to become rich investing like her.  It usually isn’t a good strategy to buy high and hope to sell higher.

The thing with Cathie Wood is that even when she has had success with things like Tesla and crypto related investments, I haven’t known her fund to sell any significant portions of holdings to take profit.  If anything, it seems like she just buys more of what has already gone sky high.

Her ARK fund is now down about 50% from its high, and this is in a bull market.  Maybe the last couple of weeks have been rough, but her fund was way down before this.  If you invest in trendy speculations like this and aren’t making money for your investors in a bull market, it is scary what it will look like in a bear market.

I haven’t written about Cathie Wood before except in corresponding with friends.  I don’t really like to trash people unless they are part of the regime promoting government force.

I have to say that I think Cathie Wood is a fraud, and I have thought this since I knew the basics about her.  I don’t mean she is a fraud in a criminal way.  She isn’t Bernie Madoff.  Anyone who invests in her fund should know what they are getting in to.

I just mean that she is a fraud in the sense that she is constantly talking up the fraudulent economy and all of the speculation.  Tesla – the stock – is absolutely ridiculous.  The idea of cryptocurrencies not backed by anything is also ridiculous, and I say this knowing that millions of people have fallen for them.

Cathie Wood really is the representation of this speculative mania.  She is like the Jim Cramer of yesterday, always being a bull and doing their part to prop up the bubble.

I have my other (political) issues with Cramer, so they aren’t the same thing.  Cathie Wood may very well be a good person who just got wrapped up in the bubble mentality and kept doing what she had been doing because it made her rich and famous.

However, I would advise anyone not to listen to a thing that Cathie Wood says and actually follow it.  She is the face of the Everything Bubble, and her bubble has already started to implode.

The unsustainable bubble will not necessarily implode all at once.  It starts with the most ridiculous and speculative assets.  It will start with thousands of cryptocurrencies going to zero or near zero.  The ARK fund has already started its major downfall.  I expect some extra speculative stocks like Tesla are not that far behind.  It is harder to say how far behind the broader markets will be.

Meanwhile, gold and silver are steady as can be right now.

Joe Biden had a nearly 2-hour press conference on Wednesday, and his handlers had a nearly 2-hour heart attack.  He was mostly on script at the beginning, and then he went out on his own where the magic happened.

Biden said he has “probably outperformed what anybody thought would happen.”  This was after being asked a question that listed the many bad things that happened during his first year of office.  Unfortunately, Biden’s statement in this case was probably true for many.

He has outperformed my expectations in how much chaos and disaster he has caused.  I figured Biden would be a bumbling fool in the White House, but I underestimated how much damage he could do.  Even though most of it probably originated from his handlers, he is still responsible for his actions.

I agreed with withdrawing troops from Afghanistan, but even that was done in a clumsy (to give the benefit of the doubt) way.

High price inflation is not entirely Biden’s fault, but his mega-spending policies are only making the situation first.

Biden said on Wednesday that we need to increase production as a way to resolve the inflation.  That is true to an extent, but he is causing major chaos with his vaccine mandates, which only serves to hurt productivity.

There are a couple of good things that came out Biden’s press conference.  First, he didn’t propose any significant new executive orders or legislation.  He said he is a capitalist and that he signed an executive order to tackle unfair competition in our economy.  I’m not sure how imposing executive orders is the act of a capitalist, but he didn’t talk about anything specific planned for the future.

The last year has been a disaster, and I feel the need to pay attention when Biden gives a speech.  He says things that could directly impact me, unlike most other things with past presidents.  Every time he issues a disastrous decree, he just seems to double-down the next time around.

On Wednesday, Biden didn’t double-down.  He didn’t propose anything specific that I noticed.  If he is becoming a lame duck president in only his second year, I am fine with that.

I just hope that he follows what England just announced and withdraws the vaccine mandates.  I think this would be a great victory for the American people.

A second good thing that came out of Biden’s press conference is the fact that he was a total train wreck.  He is deeply unpopular, and nobody takes him seriously.  This is positive for liberty.  I would rather the public not like and not respect the president, especially when most of what that president does is bad.

There is one problem though.  The establishment media and his own party are starting to throw in the towel.  They are actually criticizing Biden, which means Biden won’t be running for president again in 2024.

I think the problem is that they are attacking his personal characteristics in a subtle way.  Biden is highly flawed, morally and mentally.  There is no question that he has suffered cognitive decline.  But that enables the establishment to criticize Biden the man without criticizing the Biden policies.

The worst thing about Biden isn’t that he loses his words and appears to have dementia at times.  It also isn’t that he is a criminal.  The worst aspect of Biden is the disastrous policies he has pushed.

Is the media going to blame the failure of vaccines and the non-ending of COVID on Biden the man?  You bet they will, if that is what they have to do.  They will ignore the fact that they cheered on his inhumane policies the whole time until it was no longer convenient to do so.

The establishment all of a sudden has changed its narrative.  They say that the kids need to be in school.  They say that lockdowns may cause more harm than good.  In other words, they are starting to say what some of us were saying in March 2020.

Sometimes it is better to just let things be.  If we are going back to normal (prior to March 2020), then maybe we shouldn’t rub it in people’s faces who are trying to backtrack.  They won’t apologize, but they will change their tune.

In this case though, I feel like we do need to rub it in their faces.  These people promoted policies that have destroyed many millions of lives and essentially shut down the world for 2 years (not 2 weeks).  I do think we need to say, “I told you so.”

Finally, I want to address foreign policy.  The one thing really dangerous right now with Biden’s unpopularity is that it may tempt him to start a war.

Biden was all over the place with Russia and Ukraine.  He said things that invited criticism from both the war hawks and the pro peace side.

Biden is taking hits for saying, “It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion…”  The war hawks are really going after him on this one.

But there is something else he slipped in that surprised me.  He was talking about the consequences for Russia if Russia invades Ukraine.  Biden then said, “The cost of going into Ukraine, in terms of physical loss of life, for the Russians, they’ll – they’ll be able to prevail over time, but it’s going to be heavy, it’s going to be real, and it’s going to be consequential.”

In other words, Biden is willing to go to war, and maybe even risk nuclear war, but he admitted that Russia will prevail over time.  Does this sound utterly foolish to anybody else, no matter where you stand on the issue?

If you know that Russia will prevail over time, why would you say that, and why would you risk going to war over it?

It appears that Biden’s foreign policy is just as chaotic as his domestic policies.  It is scary that this man has the ability to launch nuclear weapons.

It’s ironic that people in the government under Trump said that they had to maintain control outside of his authority to protect the United States.  Wouldn’t that apply to Biden?  And maybe it does, but we don’t really hear about that.  Even for the Trump haters, I hope they would admit that Trump was a bit more stable in office than Biden is.

In conclusion, anything goes right now.  The president and the establishment have lost a lot of legitimacy, which is good for liberty.  But it is also dangerous like a wild animal that is injured and flailing about.

Let’s hope that the vaccine mandates get repealed and that Biden doesn’t do much in 2022.  I expect the Republicans to sweep in November.  It’s not that the Republicans will do anything great, but it will provide for some gridlock.

The government’s own consumer price index is showing that year-over-year price inflation is running at 7% (December 2021).  This is the highest Americans have seen in nearly 4 decades.

It is starting to resemble the 1970s when price inflation hit double digits.  Here is the problem though.  In the 1970s, interest rates also went to double digits.  Today, they are near zero.

The 1970s economy was not a great time.  Still, if you wanted to save money and not lose purchasing power, you could at least find some kind of savings account, money market fund, or bond that would pay a high interest rate to minimize your lost purchasing power.

Take a look at interest rates today.  As of January 14, 2022, the 1-month yield stood at 0.05%.  The 30-year yield stood at 2.12%.  All of the rates in between those periods were somewhere in between.

But you probably aren’t going to buy a 30-year bond paying just over 2% in order to protect yourself against 7% annual price inflation.  The biggest joke is that you would actually have to pay taxes on the gains from that 2% annual interest.

Maybe you are saving to buy a house in a year.  You can buy a 1-year treasury bill paying about half of a percent.  But if you lose 7% in purchasing power, then you will lose about 6.5% on net.

This is why the current environment of higher price inflation and ultra-low interest rates is so disastrous.  This is why there are speculative bubbles everywhere.  People are forced to speculate just to have a chance to maintain the purchasing power of the money that they want to save.

Depending on how you measure it, real interest rates are currently close to negative 7 percent.  The real interest rate is calculated by taking the current interest rate minus the price inflation rate.

If I go to my bank, I cannot get a savings account or money market fund paying more than a small fraction of a percent.  If you search, maybe you can find a financial institution paying 1 or 2 percent.  The fact remains that real interest rates are deep in negative territory.

Money Management with Inflation

If you have a mortgage rate of 4% right now and it doesn’t make sense to refinance, then it may make sense to pay down the mortgage with extra money laying around.  It seems nonsensical to pay down a 4% rate when your money is depreciating at 7%.  But you have to ask yourself: What are the alternatives?

You can buy a bond paying 1 or 2 percent at best.  You can put it in a savings account at near zero interest.  Or you can speculate in the stock market, cryptocurrencies, or whatever you want to gamble on.  In this context, it all of a sudden doesn’t seem that stupid to pay down the debt.

It’s interesting that gold and silver have historically been considered the best hedges against higher inflation, yet the precious metals are about the only thing not part of the Everything Bubble.

Perhaps this makes gold and silver a really good buy right now.  Or maybe it just means it makes everything else a really good sell right now.

From a personal standpoint, you really have to look at your own situation and your risk tolerance.  And sometimes losing a little bit of purchasing power in the short term makes more sense than taking on heavier risk where you could lose even more.

From an overall economic standpoint, the current situation is very bad for wealth generation.  The high inflation with the low interest rates really encourages people to take on debt and to not save.  The low interest rates are sending a signal that there are already plenty of savings in the economy.  But that is not the case because the low interest rates are artificially low.  This is what happens when the Federal Reserve buys up debt.

This will not go on forever.  Something will break, but that is not to say that things won’t get worse.  At some point, interest rates will start to catch up with price inflation, or price inflation will start to come down.

This is why we are in a speculative bubble.  It is a creation of the government and the Federal Reserve spending money, running up debt, and creating money out of thin air.  It is damaging to our living standards.

Just about everything is a speculation now.  Staying in cash is, in itself, a speculation.  The best you can do is to diversify and to stay up to date on what is happening.  The current situation with high negative real interest rates won’t last forever.  Don’t be on the wrong side when something changes.

The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled on two of the vaccine mandates coming out of Washington DC.  It is a mixed bag.

The court struck down the OSHA mandate that would have required vaccination or weekly testing for employees who work for companies with 100 or more employees.  This was a 6-3 decision, with all of the Republican appointees voting to strike down the mandate, while all of the Democratic appointees sided with tyranny.

This was the most egregious edict coming out of the White House.  If it hadn’t been struck down, I think there would have been massive protests in the streets, to say the least.

In the other ruling, the court upheld the vaccine mandate for healthcare workers in facilities that accept government funds (i.e., Medicare and Medicaid).  So it looks like most healthcare workers will have to get the COVID vaccine or get an exemption if they want to keep their jobs.  This is in the midst of supposedly crowded hospitals and staffing shortages.  What could possibly go wrong?

In other words, the CDC is telling people who may still be symptomatic and tested positive for COVID to go back to work in the hospital after 5 days, but if you are not vaccinated and fully healthy, you can’t work.

This egregious decision came from Stephen Breyer, Elena Kagan, and Sonia Sotomayor.  Joining these three were John Roberts and Brett Kavanaugh, who were the swing votes from the other decision.

Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, and Amy Coney Barrett dissented on this decision.

“Conservative” Judges

On January 7, I wrote the following:

“There are 6 judges on the court who are Republican appointees.  I think Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh (in that order) are likely to favor striking down the vaccine mandates.  Barrett and Roberts are a little less certain.  These may not be black and white decisions either.”

So I was right on everything except I got the order wrong between Kavanaugh and Barrett.  I may not agree with all of her reasoning, but at least Amy Coney Barrett voted in favor of striking down both mandates.  Kavanaugh, the one whom conservatives fought so hard for, betrayed liberty and voted in favor of firing many thousands of healthcare workers.  It is little surprise that Roberts flipped, as he is the reason that Obamacare was originally upheld.

There is no question that Thomas is the best justice for liberty and constitutionality.  He is followed by Gorsuch and Alito.  After those three, you don’t know what you’re going to get.

So-called conservative judges are cited as the reason we need to elect Republicans to the presidency, according to conservatives.  I’m not sure if these two decisions affirm that or contradict that.

Conservative judges – You can’t live with them and you can’t live without them.

It obviously could have been much worse, but it is frustrating to see some conservatives on social media gloating about this.  Sure, the conservative judges struck down the OSHA mandate, but there are now tens of thousands of healthcare workers who are at risk of losing their jobs or being forced to get a shot they don’t want.  And that could include the accountant and the janitor.  This would have been unthinkable two years ago.  Even one year ago, you would have probably been called a conspiracy theorist for predicting such a thing.

So forgive me if I don’t celebrate this.  It partially rolled back the dictatorial powers from the executive branch, but we aren’t in great shape here.  My optimism only comes from the fact that there are tens of millions of people who have been woken up to the fact that the federal government is doing more harm than good.  And many people also have come to realize that there is great evil at the top, including in the administrative state.

I haven’t fully dug into the decisions, but the majority opinion in striking down the OSHA mandate isn’t that great.  Thomas, Gorsuch, and Alito cited federalism, saying that state and local authorities possess considerable power in regulating public health, but the federal government should be limited and divided.  In other words, they are actually looking at the constitutionality of the whole thing.

Even here, they cite that Congress must clearly speak in order to delegate such powers, which I disagree with, as there is nothing in Article 1, Section 8 giving any such powers to Congress in regulating healthcare or workplace safety.

The general majority opinion in the OSHA case was worse in that it criticized the mandate because COVID should not be considered an occupational hazard.  In other words, it leaves room for Congress to do something or for the Biden people to find some other kind of workaround.

My only hope is that the Democrats in Congress take a step back and realize that this isn’t going to be a winning issue for them in November.

Government Funding and Control

The rationale behind allowing the mandates to go forward for healthcare facilities is that they receive government funds.  This is typical in most of what government does.

They steal our money from us and then they fund different sectors of the economy.  Then when they regulate these different sectors and get objections, they say that they have do have the power to control and regulate because these sectors are receiving government funds.

So the thieves steal your money and give some of it back to you.  But because they gave some of it back to you, they get to dictate everything you do with that money and everything that revolves around it.

It is almost impossible to be a healthcare facility – especially a hospital – and not receive government funds.  How can you compete against all of the other entities that are receiving government funds?  Plus, you are still subject to many of the same rules and regulations.

This decision is a good example of why some libertarians oppose school vouchers.  If a “private” school starts accepting any kind of government money (i.e., vouchers), then it becomes subject to all of the rules and regulations.  The government could then tell a school owner to vaccinate all of the employees, or vaccinate all of the children, or teach critical race theory, or whatever.

When you accept the government funds, you also accept all of the dictates that go with it, including the bad ones.  The problem is that the government is stealing the money in the first place.

Where Now?

There are still other mandates to be decided.  There is the mandate put in place for federal contractors, which technically could impact a lot of companies.

There are also mandates within the federal government that have already impacted so many people.  I guess the government really wants to get rid of any free thinkers who do not automatically obey the words of Biden and Fauci.

It will also be interesting to see how this plays out in states where the legislature has said that companies will not impose vaccine mandates.  These are actual laws, unlike the dictates from Washington DC.  If you have a hospital in Florida or Texas, will they follow the state law or the dictates from Washington DC?  It may be a question of where the consequences are the least.

Of course, this whole thing is ridiculous.  Aside from the legality of it all, it is quite obvious that the vaccines do absolutely nothing in preventing the transmission of COVID (as previously admitted by the CDC).  Therefore, there is absolutely no logic in having vaccine mandates except to protect the non-vaccinated people (which in itself I highly question).

Some people will be coerced into taking the jab.  But what about the thousands or millions who don’t obey and lose their job?  Are they better off non-jabbed and unemployed or non-jabbed and employed?  Again, it is clear that vaccination does nothing to stop the spread or protect others.

The Biden administration has created total chaos and destruction.  And the more it is clear that the COVID vaccines are not effective (or safe), the more that the establishment keeps pushing for everyone to get vaccinated.  These are sick and evil people.

Here are some random things that I had to get off my mind.  Some of them tie together, but there is no common theme except that we live in a crazy world.

Sonia Sotomayor – The Expert on COVID

This illustrious Supreme Court justice recently declared that 100,000 children are in serious condition, many of them on ventilators, because of COVID.  The fact checkers are saying she was off by a factor of at least 20 because there are only a couple of thousand kids in hospitals with COVID.

But even this is misleading.  In a rare moment of truth, Fauci recently stated that many of the children in hospitals with COVID were admitted for other reasons but tested positive while in the hospital.  So they are in the hospital with COVID, not because of COVID.

It is great that Sotomayor made this comment because it helps further delegitimize the government.  In this case, it is the Supreme Court taking the hit.

If there is one thing to be learned from 2020 and 2021, it is that we shouldn’t be respecting someone’s thoughts and opinions just because they are deemed an “expert”.  Who gets to determine who qualifies as an expert?  The other experts?  It is an endless loop.

There are nine Supreme Court justices, and they often come to very different conclusions on cases.  If they are all experts, how can they be so far apart in their conclusions?

The last thing I’ll point out for now is that even if Sotomayor’s outrageous claims had been correct, that wasn’t the question in front of the court.  The question is whether the executive branch can unilaterally impose vaccine mandates.  So even if there were 100,000 kids in serious condition because of COVID, it doesn’t make the mandates any less unconstitutional.

But Sotomayor’s understanding of the Constitution as a Supreme Court justice isn’t one of her strong points.

The Term Unvaccinated

I have been using the term “unvaccinated” to refer to people who haven’t gotten the COVID shots.  There is some question on whether the COVID shots should even be called vaccines, as they are more like gene therapy.  But that isn’t the topic for this section.

My teenage daughter told me that the term unvaccinated isn’t accurate.  It should be “not vaccinated”.  It’s not like someone is vaccinated and then somehow reverses the process and then becomes unvaccinated.  As my daughter said, you can’t suck the vaccine out of you once it has already happened.  It isn’t like getting dressed and then undressed.

Bob Saget, RIP

Actor and comedian Bob Saget passed away while on tour.  He was 65 years old.

As a kid, I watched Full House, where Saget played the nerdy father.  I remember the first time I saw him on television doing stand-up comedy.  He was telling raunchy jokes and dropping f-bombs.  It was a bit jarring.  We tend to think of people as the characters that they portrayed on television.  I didn’t see how Danny Tanner could have such a filthy mouth.

Saget said in December that he had received the booster shot for COVID.  Of course, earlier in the year, he tweeted, “I get vaccinated five to six times a day and I feel great!!”

So you don’t always know when he was joking around.  But it does in fact look like he got his booster shot just less than a month before his passing.  We have no idea if his death is at all related to the vaccine, but that is just the point.  We will probably never know because it will never be investigated.

Novak Djokovic Exposes Australia

Djokovic is one of the best tennis players of all time.  He is trying to set the record for the most number of Grand Slam titles.  There is currently a three-way tie between Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer with 20 each.

Djokovic went to Australia just over a week before the Australian Open was to start.  He thought he had his paperwork in order, including a medical exemption for the COVID vaccine because he recently tested positive for COVID.  Like many top athletes, Djokovic is very careful with what he puts in his body.

Djokovic got to experience Australian hospitality by enjoying a stay at one of their concentration camps.  The tyrants in Australia didn’t like the fact that Djokovic was not an obedient citizen of the world without his vaccine passport.

After spending the weekend at the Australian Concentration Camp Resort, a judge ruled in his favor on Monday and reinstated his visa.  However, it is not clear that this saga is over, as Australian officials are still threatening to deport him.

Once Djokovic leaves there, regardless of whether he is able to play tennis, I hope that he releases a statement blasting the Australian tyrants.  He should say that he is never again setting foot on that soil as long as it is run by third-world dictators.

I have never been much of a Djokovic fan (unlike Aaron Rodgers, who is also not COVID vaccinated).  Djokovic can be a bit of a hot head at times, and he doesn’t always come across as likable.  At the same time, I have seen him show much grace over the years too.

In this situation, he is an ally.  At the very least, he has helped to display the tyrannical idiocy that is happening in Australia right now.

Meanwhile, I lost some respect for Rafael Nadal, who also seeks the record for most Grand Slam titles.  He has been a shill for the vaccine.  At first, he was not sympathetic towards Djokovic’s plight.  Nadal thinks you should just trust the experts and get your shots.  After the court ruled in Djokovic’s favor on Monday, Nadal softened his stance a bit and acknowledged that he should have a right to participate in the tournament.

Vaccine Mandates

While it is getting some attention (but not enough), the biggest story by far – domestically speaking – is the vaccine mandates and how the U.S. Supreme Court will come down.

This could potentially impact millions of people’s lives directly.  I’m sure some have and will be coerced into getting the shots in order to have a job.  But that isn’t the case for many.  The Biden administration is saying that you are better off not vaccinated and not working and not supporting your family than being not vaccinated and working.  Because for anyone who refuses to be coerced into getting jabbed, this is ultimately the choice.

It is a bit crazy that this is one of the most important stories when the CDC director already admitted that the vaccines don’t stop transmission.  And now she is also admitting that over 75% of the deaths recorded as COVID were people who had at least 4 co-morbidities.

But that’s what the Brandon administration likes to do.  They like to lie, cause chaos, and then double-down for some more.

The narrative is falling fast, but not fast enough for me.