The November elections are about a month away, and I have an inner conflict.  I have a decision to make.  Will I vote for Republicans whom I don’t like?

I live in Florida.  It is the land of the free compared to California or New York.  Florida has a lot of problems, but at least we have a governor who doesn’t seem to actively hate us.

I wonder if libertarians and hardcore conservatives are making a mistake by not lobbying DeSantis more.  I don’t really care about winning a small battle about teaching critical race theory or using gender-neutral pronouns in the schools.  I want the government schools abolished, or at the very least decentralized more.  Can we at least start with less funding for the government schools?

I will write more about this in a future article.  I think liberty lovers may be missing an opportunity on making more permanent changes.  It would require a lobbying effort directed towards DeSantis.

Anyway, I did not vote for DeSantis for governor in 2018.  I saw him as another typical establishment Republican.  And while I don’t completely trust DeSantis now, I will vote for him this November because he was one of the least bad governors when it came to COVID and lockdowns.

I have to remind people that DeSantis did lock down Florida in April 2020.  I was referring to him then as Dictator DeSantis.  I even sent an email to his office saying that nobody should be acting as a dictator as I adamantly opposed the lockdowns.

To DeSantis’s credit, he loosened things up in May 2020 and completely opened up Florida in September 2020 when almost every other state still had significant restrictions.  Counties in Florida could still impose mask mandates, but there were no statewide mandates at that point.

I still have no idea if DeSantis did it because he’s brilliant, or courageous, or principled, or politically savvy, or maybe all of the above.  If it was a completely political decision, he read the tea leaves better than the governor of Texas who waited until 2021 to open up Texas.  He only did it after he saw how popular DeSantis had become.

The Lesser of Two Evils

I have heard the term “lesser of two evils” for a long time because I was involved in the Libertarian Party a long time ago.  Many people then, and some still today, say you shouldn’t vote for the lesser of two evils.  But isn’t it really just a degree of evil?  I don’t 100% agree with most Libertarians running for office, so that would preclude me from voting for them as well.

I don’t consider it immoral or stupid to vote.  It doesn’t mean I fully endorse the system.

My rule for a long time is that I will vote for the lesser of two evils, but there has to be a substantial difference between the evils.  I’m not going to vote for one candidate over another just because they think the marginal tax rate should be 35% instead of 39%.  It’s not that I wouldn’t favor a lower marginal tax rate, but I just don’t trust anyone who can’t be any bolder than that.

It’s sad to think about what has happened since March 2020.  Most liberty lovers would rejoice at going back to 2019, even though we were far from free at that time.

It’s still amazing to think that most of the world shut down because of virus hysteria, while the so-called experts were saying and doing things that brought us greater death and destruction.

DeSantis is no libertarian.  I don’t even know if his actions in 2020 were purely political.  But I want to reward him for being more right than others and more courageous than others.  Also, if we hit another virus situation or something similar, I don’t want to be in lockdown like in California and New York.

Now I have an issue with Congress and whether to vote.

I don’t usually vote for anyone.  My “representatives” in Congress are all Republicans, but they don’t represent me very well.  They send my money to Ukraine and other wars.  They waste my money on the welfare/ warfare state, and they continue to fund all of the bad agencies, and this particularly goes for the so-called intelligence agencies.

At the same time, Biden and the Democrats have done great damage to our country.  He and his handlers are far worse than I ever could have imagined.  I don’t know of one single Democrat in Washington DC who opposed the unlawful and immoral vaccine mandates.  I don’t know of one Democrat in DC who opposed funding Ukraine.

I don’t like Marco Rubio.  He is part of the establishment.  He may have been decent when he was in the Florida legislature before he went national.  He is sometimes ok on economics.  But overall, he isn’t good.  He certainly doesn’t oppose the deep state.

But the thought of having the Democrats maintain control of Congress for another two years really puts me at unease.  They are bad on almost every single issue these days.  And if anything, the Republicans have been better (or less bad) when it comes to issues of war and peace.

If the Republicans gain a majority in Congress, I fully expect most things to stay bad.  But at least it may put a halt to the absolute worst things.  Maybe there will be a little bit of accountability for the White House instead of Biden and company just continually trying to upend Western Civilization.

The FBI and the Department of Justice (Injustice) are just blatantly going after those who oppose their agenda.  They are terrorizing pro-life activists.  They are terrorizing Trump supporters.

Biden continues to impose vaccine mandates on many workers, as well as prohibiting people from entering the country.  This has to be stopped.  I don’t just want these things overturned.  I want hearings that expose the criminality of putting out these jabs and the mandates.

I don’t just want people saying, “The pandemic is over, so we don’t need mandates any more.”  I want people saying, “I think these criminals were trying to kill us with their deadly jabs.”

Even if Fauci and company don’t end up in handcuffs, I want them to feel the heat.  I want him called in front of Congress and grilled.

I don’t expect much from most Republicans in Congress, but at least there is an outside chance of a little bit of accountability if the Republicans have the majority.  If the Democrats stay in the majority, there will be no accountability, and things could even get worse, if that is possible.

So I may hold my nose and vote for Marco Rubio.  If he is way up in the polls, maybe I don’t need to.  I don’t want to feel like I have to take a shower after going to the voting booth.  I also don’t want to deal with these psychopaths in power in Washington DC.  They are trying to destroy our civilization, and a strong message must be sent in November.

There is bad economic news coming out of Europe.  We hear that major banks are in trouble there.  And just recently, the Bank of England changed course to support its bond market because of the risk of pension funds not being able to meet their obligations.

On Monday, October 3, 2022, the American markets soared higher.  Stocks were up big.  Gold was up.  Bonds were up as long-term yields fell.  Didn’t investors get the message about what is happening in Europe?

In our upside down world where bad news is good news, I think investors did hear the message.

There was also a closed meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve.  What is this all about?  I don’t think it was to discuss the weather or the inequity of Federal Reserve inflation.

The official agenda says under matters to be considered: “Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by the Federal Reserve Banks.”

The closed meeting was likely to discuss the economic turmoil in the world and how to prevent it from happening in the United States, or at least to not make it as severe.

The Fed has recently pledged to make fighting inflation its number one goal, even though it was the Federal Reserve that gave us inflation in the first place.

If you look at the yields on government debt, it doesn’t look good.  This is while the Fed has pledged to continue to drain its balance sheet (even if slowly) and to hike its target of the federal funds rate.

The 10-year yield is highly inverted against the 2-year yield, and it has been this way for months.  Meanwhile, the 3-month yield is not far away from the 10-year yield at this point.

Maybe the big up day on Monday was just investors reacting to what they see as stocks being oversold.  Maybe everything will reverse course the following day.

Still, I can’t help but think that some investors are counting on the Fed to step in and pivot as soon as economic conditions get bad.  A 20% drop in stocks won’t cause a reversal, but maybe a 50% drop will.  If any major financial institutions get in trouble, it is pretty obvious based on history that the Fed is not going to allow them to fail.

So maybe it won’t happen as fast as the Bank of England, but I think a pivot will be coming.  It’s just a matter of how long they will wait.

The stock market is down the list of concerns for Fed officials.  They aren’t going to reverse course just because some people took a 20% hit on their 401k.  They are more worried about the bond market and the solvency of financial institutions.

Still, if stocks go down 50% or more, that may be enough to start a pivot.  They may not immediately go back in full inflation mode, but they may stop hiking rates and draining the balance sheet.

The reason is because a dramatically falling stock market is indicative of worse things to come.

I will not forget what was done to us starting in March 2020.  The lies actually started before March 2020 about COVID, including its origins and its deadliness.  And there have been almost no consequences for those who sold the lies.

Some will say that we should just move on since society is back to normal.  There are two major problems with that.

First, not everyone has moved on.  The illustrious president just recently was talking about hurricane preparedness and said that everyone should get vaccinated.  You know…because when your house is about to be destroyed by a hurricane, you should really be thinking about getting a needle in the arm.

Also, if we have moved on, then why are some people still wearing masks?  And why is Brandon still imposing vaccine mandates on many federal workers and still requiring proof of vaccine to enter the country for non-Americans/ non-American residents?

Aside from the fact that not everyone has moved on and has not discovered the truth, there is a second reason to not just forget about what we’ve been through.  Since nobody was held to account for the lies, the lockdowns, the mandates, etc., it could easily happen again with something else.

Remember the Great Barrington Declaration?

In 2020, the Great Barrington Declaration was released, and it was quickly criticized by the ruling elite and their shills in the media.  The doctors who came up with the Great Barrington Declaration basically just said that society should not be locked down, and that there should be focused protection of those who are most vulnerable to COVID.

It was obvious very early on to anyone paying attention that COVID was a disease that mostly impacted older people and people who already are in ill health.

Sure, you can tell me about a friend of a friend who was only 55 years old and died of COVID, or maybe you heard about someone in their 40s who succumbed to the virus.  But even the anecdotal evidence is not reliable because so many people were mistreated with remdesivir and ventilators.

The fact still remains that in 2020, the average age of death from COVID (or with COVID) was around or slightly above the average life expectancy.

The Great Barrington Declaration was saying that we should focus on protecting these people who are actually vulnerable to the virus.  Everyone else should go about their lives.

I would say that is where we are at now, but I would say we have moved beyond that.  I don’t know any elderly people who are staying under voluntary lockdown so as not to get the virus.  If they are healthy enough, most older people are going out to eat and seeing friends.

The Great Barrington Declaration was really not that bold.  It was saying that kids should go to school and not miss soccer practice.  It was saying that most working Americans should be going to work.  Yet, this was considered too radical by the COVID hysterics in 2020 and into 2021.

My only problem with the Great Barrington Declaration was that it wasn’t bold enough.  If anything, it was ceding too much ground to the COVID hysterics.

But the people who supported lockdowns – whether through naivety or cowardice or evil – said that the Great Barrington Declaration was irresponsible if they ever addressed it at all.

The ruling elite and the loudmouths in the media started calling it the “let ‘er rip” strategy.  This was their way of being a demagogue.  They insinuated that the supporters or the Great Barrington Declaration or those who don’t favor lockdowns are just trying to throw grandma in front of a bus.  They were accusing us of not caring about people and wanting to see mass death.  Thanks for the kind interpretation of our position.

Most of us who opposed lockdowns actually cared about individual liberty and the right to make our own decisions.  And that includes caring about people who need to go to work and support a family instead of being locked inside for of a virus that probably won’t impact them.

We also understood that there is no such thing as perfect safety in our world and that we always have to make trade-offs.  You may die in a car accident driving your kid to soccer practice, yet you do it anyway.  You are always taking risks, yet you don’t just sit and hide in your house every day.  In fact, doing that is a bigger risk if you do it day after day.

The lockdowners never considered the mental health of children.  They never considered the need for elderly people to have loved ones by their side.  They never considered the major economic impacts which we continue to suffer from today.  They never considered the long-term damage done to people by feeding them fear and hysteria.

Not one child should have missed baseball practice or a dance recital or piano lessons or anything else because of COVID hysteria.  It was just that – hysteria.  It was irrational, and it was evil what was done to us.

Even though COVID is still around and a little bit of COVID hysteria is still around, most people are going about their lives.  This is what should have been done in March 2020.

I’m glad most people have moved on and that they are recognizing that they have to live their lives without perfect safety.

I am not moving on in the sense that the evil tyrants who imposed death and destruction on our society are still in positions of power.  We must never forget the evil that was done to our society.

For some reason, the Federal Reserve’s goal over the last many years has been to “achieve” 2% inflation.  When they talk about inflation, they are obviously not talking about the supply of money, which has greatly exceeded 2%.  They are talking about price inflation.

I don’t think the Fed needs to target 2% inflation at all.  Why not zero percent inflation?  Or since we’re going down that road, why do we need a central bank at all?

But for this piece, let’s just go with the 2% price inflation target.  It is quite obvious that the Fed has shot way past that target, with current CPI numbers coming in above 8% annual for several months now.

But let’s remember back in early 2021, the Fed changed its goal.  In the FOMC monetary policy statement of January 27, 2021, it states:

“With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent.”

Aside from seeing just how wrong the Fed was in worrying about inflation being too low, it is interesting that we now don’t hear much about this relatively recent goal of achieving an average of 2 percent over time.

Jerome Powell never really said what he meant by “over time”.  Was this supposed to be a 2 percent average over the course of a year, over 5 years, or what?

Now that price inflation has exceeded 8% on an annual basis for several months, what will the Fed have to do to average 2% “over time”?

I mean, correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe this means we have to go way below 2 percent at some point to get an average of 2 percent.  Is this still the policy of the Fed?  Have they quietly dropped this goal that started a mere 20 months ago?

If the Fed wants an average of 2 percent, then the Fed should really be pushing for price deflation at this point.  We need to see falling prices.  If there is a 2 percent average target for the last 2 years, then we need some serious price deflation, which I have never known of a central bank anywhere to advocate.

Just like the government does with COVID, wars, Russia hoaxes, and everything else, the central bank just drops this one down the memory hole.  “Let’s just not mention it anymore and hope that nobody notices.  Our friends in the media surely won’t say anything about it.”

This just shows that they make their policies however they want to make them.  If they want to inflate more to cover the massive spending from Congress, then they’ll do it.  If they want to bail out banks, then they’ll do it.  If they want to blow up some financial bubbles, they’ll do it.  They can always find the justification somewhere.

Now that there is high price inflation, the Fed is spooked that they will lose control of the dollar.  So now they are tightening.  They aren’t going to advocate for outright consumer price deflation because that isn’t what central banks do.  So Fed officials can just ignore what they previously said and find other justifications.

This is how the game works.  Unfortunately, it doesn’t work very well for us.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released its latest monetary policy statement.  As expected, the federal funds rate was hiked by 75 basis points.  It is now in a target range of 3 to 3.25 percent.

Although stocks were higher in the morning, they quickly came down with the announcement and the expectations of higher rates and higher unemployment next year.  Stocks were volatile, but ended up down significantly for the day as a whole.

Surprisingly, gold actually finished slightly higher on the day, and this came in the face of a stronger dollar.  The euro is now trading at less than 99 cents to the dollar.

But the real story is the bond market and the yields.  The 2-year yield closed above the 4% mark for the first time since 2007.  And we know how 2008 turned out.

The 10-year yield is still slightly higher than the 3-month yield, so there isn’t a full inversion of the yield curve.  But the 2-year yield has been trading significantly higher than the 10-year yield for a couple of months now, and it was exaggerated more after the FOMC statement.

This tells us that there is going to be a recession ahead.  And even though Jerome Powell won’t directly answer the questions on a recession being baked into the cake, he is admitting that everyone should expect a significant slowdown, which is the most a Fed chair will ever admit about the future.

In his press conference, Powell gave a hypothetical example of a family that has most of its budget going towards food, gas, and clothes, and he acknowledged in his own way that they are hurting.  This was a little bit surprising, but I think he’s trying to justify the Fed’s actions that risk a recession.

He also said something about unemployment needing to go higher to control price inflation.  This is only correct in the sense that the Fed blew up the bubble that we have now.

To be sure, the only reason we are in this situation is because of the Federal Reserve’s prior monetary policy of low interest rates and massive monetary inflation.  Now the Fed is essentially forced to reverse course to fight the price inflation that it created.  As resources are reallocated, it will likely cause a rise in unemployment.

It is a mistake of “economists” who believe that there is some kind of trade-off between inflation and unemployment.  If you don’t tamper with the money and interest rates in the first place, then the misallocations won’t occur.  You can have an environment of low or no price inflation (or even deflation), coupled with low unemployment rates.

When the central bank is active, you can get a situation where you have high price inflation and relatively high unemployment rates.  They see this trade-off now only because of what the Fed has already done.

Buckle Up for a Wild Ride

The upcoming recession could be one for the record books.  Just look at the situation that the Fed is in now.

The yield curve is largely inverted, and it may still get worse.  Interest rates are several points behind the official price inflation rate.  The Fed is hiking its target rate and plans to continue to do so at its next couple of meetings, while the balance sheet is also slowly going down.

The Fed is aggressively hiking rates when the yield curve is already largely inverted.  And it can’t stop hiking without risking massive price inflation that is higher than what we have now.

How will the Fed fight the next recession?  Will it continue to drain its balance sheet and hike its target federal funds rate?

The mother of all bubbles is going to pop like nobody has seen before.  Housing and stocks have both been going down, but this is only the beginning.  We aren’t in the midst of the financial crisis yet.  This is only the first or second inning of a 9-inning game.

Nothing is safe right now.  My best advice is to use common sense and diversify.  You don’t want to be in debt outside of a manageable mortgage.  You don’t want to be heavy in stocks.  You won’t want to be in any of these highly speculative gambles like crypto.

The only hope out of this economic disaster is that more and more people will wake up to the fact that the ruling elite do not have their best interests at heart.  There needs to be a major shift in public opinion where the people stop allowing others to have all of this power.

On CBS’s 60 Minutes, Joe Biden was asked if the pandemic is over.  He replied that it is over and then gave some qualifications after that.

Biden commented that you can see all of the people around not wearing masks.  But the whole reason that masks became a big thing in 2020 is because of government officials and COVID hysterics pushing them.

Masks were a placebo so that some people could feel safer while somewhat continuing to go about their lives.  They were an excuse to “safely” go to the grocery store and eventually do other activities that are of less necessity, like going out to eat and shopping for clothes.

Masks also served a purpose for the ruling elite of making it feel like a pandemic.  When you go to the grocery store and nearly everyone is wearing a mask, you feel like you are in a hospital.  It really does it make it feel like the plague for some people.

I don’t refer to what has happened since March 2020 as a pandemic.  I just try to not use the word unless I am using it in quotes or if I am referring to it in the context of what other people are saying.  I actually cringe when I hear people who are generally on my side (pro liberty) refer to it as “the pandemic”.  I think it only serves to legitimize the reactions to COVID.

I am sensitive to those who have lost people supposedly due to COVID.  I say “supposedly” because the tests are inaccurate and most people supposedly dying of COVID had other major ailments.  In addition, hospital staff mistreated people testing positive for COVID on many occasions.  It wasn’t just negligence either.  It was giving them remdesivir and throwing them on ventilators.

If the government had just treated it like a bad flu season, I’m not sure how much damage would have occurred.  Without hysteria and lockdowns, I think there would have been fewer deaths, and many of the people who supposedly died of COVID were probably going to die soon anyway.  I admit there may be exceptions.

But according to Biden, the pandemic is over now.  Maybe it is because there is an election coming up and he is way down in the polls.  But if the pandemic is over according to Biden, what about all of the mandates and emergency powers still in place?

Repeal the Emergency Powers

While I don’t think 60 Minutes is the worst show in terms of propaganda (they actually have some interesting things at times), it would have been nice for the interviewer to point out that emergency powers are still in place and there are still people getting fired to this day for not being “vaccinated” against COVID.

The U.S. Open tennis tournament was just held in New York, and the best tennis player in the world was unable to play because he was not allowed to enter the country.  If you are not a U.S. national or resident, you are not allowed to enter the country without being “vaccinated”, unless you want to walk across the Mexican border.

So there may have been people playing in the U.S. Open who weren’t vaccinated if they lived in the United States.  There were certainly many people in attendance who were not vaccinated.  Yet, Novak Djokovic was not allowed to enter the country to play.

Many military members and other government workers are still required to get vaccinated.  Many universities are still requiring it, even if it isn’t coming as direct orders from the federal government.

The vaccine mandates are immoral and unlawful.  They also make no logical sense.  Unless you are living in a cave, you can see with your own eyes that people who are “vaccinated” are still testing positive for COVID.  They may be getting it at an even higher rate than those who did not get jabbed.

Biden’s whole scheme to “forgive” $10,000 in student loan debt per borrower was predicated on emergency COVID powers.  That is how he is attempting to get around the law and the Constitution.  But if there is no pandemic any more, why does he still have emergency powers?  Again, nobody asks him this.  And anyone who would ask him this is forbidden from asking him any questions.

There has been great damage done over the last 2 and a half years.  We will be paying for it for a long time.  We are really paying for it now with the economic mess that was exacerbated by lockdowns and more digital money printing.

The vaccine mandates that were attempted are probably the biggest infringement on liberty, domestically speaking, in at least a generation.  I think you would have to go back to the draft during the Vietnam War to have something as bad and widespread as the vaccine mandates.

I am no fan of most Republicans in Washington DC, but remember that no Democrats in DC opposed the vaccine mandates.  They are all tyrants.  We must never forget the great damage done by their authoritarian policies.  Now it is election time, so they can just declare the “pandemic” as over.  They will try to resurrect it or come up with something new when the time is right.

When Joe Biden gave his dark and cryptic speech attacking “MAGA Republicans”, he used the word extremism as one of his attacks.  When he is trying to associate people with unlawfulness and violence, then calling them extremist obviously has a very negative connotation.

Even here, it is important to be clear that not all extremism is necessarily bad.  If the law is highly immoral, then being unlawful and extremist about it may not be a bad thing.

Think about Nazi Germany.  You could argue about whether rounding up Jews was technically lawful, but it was lawful in the eyes of the Nazi rulers.  The Enabling Act supposedly allowed a lot of things to be lawful that were otherwise immoral.  So a Nazi soldier who defied orders may have been doing something unlawful.  A Jew who refused to be taken away may have been doing something unlawful.  And they could both be considered extremists.  They were extremists in their view that it was wrong to kidnap people.

What about violence?  If it is purely defensive violence, then it is not necessarily bad.  If someone sticks a gun at your head and you react with counter violence, most people do not consider that to be immoral or wrong.  If a Jew was about to be shot in a concentration camp and managed to take the gun away and shoot the person who was about to shoot him, there doesn’t seem to be anything morally wrong with this unless you are a pure pacifist.  And again, the Jew could be considered an extremist for defending his own life.

We are all extremists when it comes to certain things.  I am an extremist when it comes to defending my family from harm.  I am an extremist for wanting world peace.

When the White House press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, was asked how the White House defines an extremist, she responded that it is someone who acts outside of the majority.

This makes everyone an extremist on many things.  If you like to play chess or if you like to study Shakespeare, then you are an extremist according to this definition.

It’s too bad that there weren’t better and honest reporters at these White House press briefings, but I suppose they wouldn’t be allowed in if that were the case.

There was an obvious follow-up question to Jean-Pierre’s definition of an extremist.

“So, Miss Jean-Pierre, if you lived in the 1840s when a minority of people held the position that all slavery should be abolished, would you have considered yourself an extremist?”

Either she is an extremist for wanting slavery abolished, or else she favors slavery.  Or maybe the only standard to go by is what the majority thinks based on this exact time in 2022.

In 2021, it was apparently extremist to believe that the so-called COVID vaccines didn’t stop the infection or transmission of COVID.  In 2022, that is no longer considered extremist.

So just as the science evolves, so does the term extremist.  If a poll shifts from 51% to 49%, I guess it all of a sudden becomes extremist according to the Biden White House.

This is illustrative of the intellect coming out of the White House.  It is also illustrative of the hostility coming at anyone who defies the authoritarian dictates of team Biden.

This is how they are defining domestic extremism.  If you don’t want your little kid to be taught critical race theory at school, then you are a domestic extremist.  If you don’t want to get a jab in your arm, then you are a domestic extremist. If you don’t want your money going to Ukraine, you are a domestic extremist.

This is the playbook for the 2022 elections and probably the 2024 elections.  It is only serving to radicalize the hate that each side has for each other.  But this is what happens when large groups of people attempt to use government force to impose their will on others.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers came in at 8:30 AM on Tuesday morning, September 13, 2022.  The CPI for August came in at 0.1%.  It was expected to be negative 0.1%, largely due to the decrease in gas prices.

The year-over-year price inflation stands at 8.3%.  The less volatile median CPI was up 0.7% for the month, and it hit an annual rate of 6.7%.  This is the highest the median CPI has been this year and for a long time.

The slightly higher than expected number instantly drove markets down.  It is now almost a sure thing that the FOMC will hike its target rate by another 75 basis points at the next meeting, which is in just over a week.

Unless you were short the markets or in cash, investors took a major loss today.  Stocks were down big, as the Dow lost more than 1,200 points.  Gold was down.  Cryptocurrencies were down.  Yields went higher, pushing bond prices down.

So even if you follow my recommendation of a permanent portfolio, you took a loss today.

The Fed is now in a bigger pickle than it was before.  They are almost forced to continue to raise the target rate.  This is in the face of a yield curve that is already inverted in some spots.

The 2-year yield, which has been higher than the 10-year yield for a while now, went up even higher.  Most yields went higher, but this should ensure a full inversion.  The 3-month yield will soon invert against the 10-year yield.

Mortgage rates have hit new highs for the year, which should help deflate the massive housing bubble.  Since houses are far less liquid than stocks, it might take a few months before we really start seeing the air come out of the bubble.

If gas prices hadn’t come down in August, the inflation numbers would have been much worse.  Americans are paying more and more for groceries, as food prices continue to rise at a double-digit annual pace.

This is what middle class America faces in 2022.  Prices for most necessities continue to rise, while asset prices deflate. It is a tough combination for anyone, especially with wages lagging far behind price inflation.  It will be especially bad for those who are in substantial debt.

And I know that the situation is far worse in much of Europe, where people are wondering if they will be able to afford to heat their homes this winter.

Everything points to a massive recession ahead.  It will likely be in 2023.

We have falling gold prices despite price inflation above 8%.  We have housing prices that have peaked.  We have a somewhat inverted yield curve.  And on top of all of this, we have a Federal Reserve that is forced to drain its balance sheet and raise its target interest rate.

You don’t have to be an expert in Austrian school economics to understand that the economy is in major trouble.

There is no guarantee we will get a recession this year or next.  But as I write this in September 2022, the Treasury yields are indicating a recession ahead.

The 2-year yield has been higher than the 10-year yield for quite a while.  The 3-month yield is close to inverting against the 10-year yield, and it may happen later this month after the FOMC meets and hikes its target rate again.

The first and second quarter GDP came in negative.  Many define this as a recession.  It is a matter of definitions.  If it is or was a recession, it is mild, especially compared to what is to come.

In a true hard recession, there would be a huge fall in demand for luxury items.  In a hard recession, your next-door neighbor won’t be putting in a swimming pool in the backyard.  Your friends won’t be going to expensive restaurants and bars on the weekend, unless they are single and make good money.

There is still too much mania for it to feel like a recession.  There is also a low unemployment rate.  Even though wages aren’t keeping up with inflation, which is a major problem, at least most people who want a job have a job.

Annual price inflation is still above 8% according to the government’s own statistics.  That means, at this rate, prices will double in less than 10 years.  So it seems like most everything is just getting more expensive.  I can certainly vouch for that at the grocery store.

If we hit a hard recession, which I think is likely in the next year, then demand will fall for certain things.  This may not be the case for food.  Necessities will still be in high demand.  After all, they are necessities.

Perhaps the price of an expensive steak will go down while ground beef does not.  It’s hard to say how things will go.

But what about big purchases?  What will happen to prices, and does it make sense to wait?

I think it is going to depend on how much of a need it is versus how much of a want it is.  If it is a want (more of a luxury thing), then it is more likely to fall in price.

For example, if you are doing well and you really want to put in a swimming pool in your backyard, it actually makes sense to wait until we have a good hard recession.  It’s hard to say if the raw material prices will go down, but it is a decent bet that labor costs will go down and demand for pools will soften.

If you are going to need a new roof on your house or a new air conditioning unit, it is much harder to say.  In a deep recession, most people are still going to find a way to get a new air conditioner, especially if they live in a warm climate.  These are close to being necessities, and people can’t necessarily completely plan on replacing them until they need to be replaced.

Generally, if you know you will need a new roof or a new air conditioning unit soon, then you should shop around.  You may not be able to wait for a recession, and there is far from any guarantee that prices will go down.

The same goes for automobiles.  Prices may come down in a recession, but it is far from a guarantee.

Here are the two things I am convinced you should wait on buying until there is a hard recession – stocks and houses.

I believe stocks and residential real estate have been in a massive bubble.  As the Fed raises its target rate and slowly deflates its balance sheet, these bubbles are going to deflate along with it.  If you are currently renting and want to buy a house, I think it is a good bet to wait.

And as stated above, it will generally make sense to wait on purchasing more luxury items.  If you want to remodel your kitchen, why are you going to do it during a mania when there is high demand?  If we are in the midst of a hard recession and you are still doing financially well, then this is the time to do it.  Businesses that remodel kitchens will probably be offering discounts.

So if it is a necessity, you probably don’t want to wait.  But if you have time to shop around, then take your time to do so.

If it is a cosmetic item to make your house look nicer or be more enjoyable, and if it is a big purchase, then it is probably better to wait.  You can wait to make sure that you are still doing well in a recession, and you can wait for discounts when suppliers of these services are desperate for business.

Even though the CDC has changed its guidelines to not discriminate against those who have not been “vaccinated” for COVID, it hasn’t changed policies from the White House.

There are still mandates for the military and many other sectors of government.  They are still pursuing a mandate for federal contractors, even though it was on pause for nearly a year.

Many people have quit jobs because of these mandates.  Some people got the jab or jabs, even though they didn’t want them.  Some have managed to delay things but still face the prospect of being fired.

With the not safe and not effective vaccines, it is unbelievable that this is still happening.  It is quite obvious to anyone awake in this world that the COVID vaccines do not actually prevent infection or transmission.  So what would be the point of a mandate?

Why would you mandate something for someone’s own good?  Do you have to promise to not eat sugar to maintain a job?  And for all of the people who just get fired, then they still haven’t been vaccinated and are now unemployed.  How does that help anyone?

Well, it helps those in power.  It helps the pharmaceutical companies make a few extra bucks.

It also helps the power elite by having a higher percentage of obedient people working for government.

This is also the case with the “woke” agenda.  Government agencies and companies doing work for the federal government are compelled to put on diversity seminars and to train their employees to use gender-neutral pronouns (as one example).  It has become a nationwide culture thing, but you can typically find that government incentives are behind it.

Most people are able to put up with it.  They know to shut up about it and just go along.  But it gets so ridiculous in some places that it drives people away, at least on the margin.  Again, it tends to get rid of people who are less obedient.

A Government of Sheep

In spite of what libertarians and others might think, not everybody who does work for the government is an obedient sheep.  There is a reason that Ron Paul received the largest percentage of military donations in the 2007/ 2008 Republican primaries.

There are libertarian leaning people in just about every government agency and government contractor.  Beyond this, there are many people who will say that government is bureaucratic and inefficient.  They should know because they see it all the time at their own workplace.

But I have to give credit to the power elite on this one.  They are evil and smart at times.  They are making things as uncomfortable as possible for those who question authority to be working in any capacity for the government.

If you get everyone vaccinated (obedience) and everyone reciting the latest woke message like they mean it (obedience), then you can keep counting on these people to be obedient with everything else.  You don’t ever have to worry about them disobeying an order just because it is unlawful or immoral.

This is what the evil people at the top want.  They want obedient citizens.  This is why Joe Biden is attacking MAGA Republicans.  Despite any faults, they tend not to be obedient, especially when it comes to the dictates of Biden.

If everyone inside of government is obedient, it doesn’t mean all is lost.  They are still outnumbered quite a bit.  It is a bit more concerning when it comes to the police and the military, as they are the ones with the most powerful weapons.

Even with that, the power elite rely on the consent of those they rule over.  Without that consent, their power evaporates.

This is why it is important to not give your consent, especially to unlawful and immoral edicts.  I am not telling you to do anything that will put you or your family in harms way.  You should remain peaceful, and you should make calculated decisions.  I can’t tell anyone that they should not get jabbed to keep their job because every person is in a different situation.

It is important to recognize the tactics that are being used by the ruling elite.  We need as many people as possible to speak out and against these criminals for the chaos they are creating in our society.