This is one of those odd things where seemingly unrelated things may somehow be related.

The other day, one of my friends sent me a message showing Jim Rickards’ Twitter feed.  The tweet states:

“This chart shows Biden states (blue) compared to Trump states (red) measured by size and percentage vaccinated.  100% of the states > 65% are Biden’s.  The Democrats better hope there are no side effects ;-)”.

This chart shows Biden states (blue) compared to Trump states (red) measured by size and percentage vaccinated. 100% of the states > 65% are Biden's. The Democrats better hope there are no side effects 😉 pic.twitter.com/ZVWvSNE4SN

— Jim Rickards (@JamesGRickards) June 13, 2021

When you look at the chart, there is a clear trend.  The states on the right side (which are politically to the left) have a higher vaccination rate than the states on the left side (which are politically to the right).

If you take the dividing line at just under 65%, all of the states with greater than 65% are states that went for Biden.  The states below a 65% vaccination rate are mostly red states that went for Trump.

Many people wonder why this would be, and you will get different answers depending on which side you ask.  A Democrat who has been vaccinated will likely say something to the effect that the Trump people are a bunch of uneducated rednecks who are too stupid and brainwashed to get the vaccine.  A Republican may say that the Democrats are stupid and will believe whatever they are told.

If you look only at educational levels, then it is true that you will find more college-educated people in the population of the Democrats.  Of course, while education can be one sign of intelligence, it isn’t the only thing.  And to steal from Michael Malice, it is easier to train a smart dog.

The Trump people are less likely to get vaccinated because they are less likely to believe what they are being told by the establishment and the establishment media.

Saying that Trump is politically stupid wouldn’t seem to be something commonly said amongst anyone, even his enemies.  But in this situation, Trump is being politically stupid.  He is bragging about bringing about the vaccines so quickly, yet probably over half of this devoted followers have serious doubts about the COVID vaccines.

Trump is not reading the political tea leaves very well on this one.

I think it is clear by this chart that the whole COVID hysteria has largely been a political issue.  I find it interesting when I hear people tell me, or others on my side, not to make this a political issue.  Oh, but the people advocating lockdowns, stay-at-home orders, mask mandates, and everything else are just following the science.

The Chart and Election Fraud

When I saw this chart, something popped out at me.  Amongst the red states that went for Trump, there are 5 blue states that went for Biden in 2020.  Wisconsin is just barely grouped with the red states.  Then you have Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada.  And the farthest to the left (i.e., least vaccinated) of the Biden states is Georgia.

In almost perfect order, these are the states where there are the biggest allegations of election fraud from the 2020 presidential election.  It is actually quite remarkable.

I have not been really outspoken on allegations of election fraud.  I have said that I highly suspect there was widespread fraud, but I have no idea if it was enough to sway the entire election.

The one place I had my greatest suspicions was Georgia.  I simply don’t think Georgia is a blue state.  But the one big city there, Atlanta, is controlled by Democrats, and that is where the fraud came from.  If votes had been counted honestly in Georgia, I believe Trump would have won the state, but I have no hard proof of that.  It was one of those states where Trump had a clear lead on election night, and then things started to flip in the morning hours after the election.

Georgia is in the top 10 states of least vaccinated according to this chart.  It is clear that people who voted for Trump are far less likely to get vaccinated, and people who voted for Biden are far more likely to get vaccinated.

Statistics don’t lie if they are being presented fairly.  This chart was meant to show vaccination.  It showed me something so much more that wasn’t intended.  These “blue” states on the left side of the chart likely should have gone for Trump if the votes had been counted fairly.

Wisconsin is on the edge, so maybe that really did go for Biden.  Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and probably Michigan should have gone for Trump if the vaccination rates are correlated.

I am trying to think of reasons that these states could have actually gone for Biden legitimately and have low vaccination rates.  I can’t think of a good reason other than fraud.  I’m sure someone will let me know if I’m missing something.

Florida has a relatively high vaccination rate for being a red state.  But Florida has gotten a reputation as a solid red state because DeSantis had some courage (or political wisdom) that others lacked in late summer 2020 by completely opening up Florida from COVID restrictions.  But Florida only went for Trump by a few percentage points, and there is a large population of older people, so that likely explains why the vaccination rates are a bit higher there (but still less than most blue states).

While this chart was supposed to be about vaccination, that’s not what stuck out to me.  After seeing it, it makes me question the whole outcome of the election more than I did before.

I recently wrote about our 2021 version of Atlas Shrugged.  Now we are faced with a case of Investors Shrugged.

The bull market continues, and it doesn’t seem like anything is going to faze it at this point.

The latest CPI numbers were released showing that price inflation for May came in at 0.6%.  This is after coming in at 0.8% for April.  So based on the last two months, annual price inflation, according to the government’s statistics, is running above 8%.

It came in slightly higher than what was expected, but investors shrugged.  Stocks went up at the opening bell.

This is what stock investors (or maybe speculators is a better term) are telling us.  They are saying: “It doesn’t matter that prices are rising.  This is good for stocks.  And the Federal Reserve isn’t even thinking about discussing the possibility of tapering, so let the party continue.”

The Fed says that this price inflation is “transitory”.  Tell that to a struggling American family when they pay 10 dollars more per week for groceries.  Sure, it’s only 10 dollars, but that is 10 dollars for every week.  That is over 500 dollars extra per year for groceries.  And it’s not as if prices just went up once.  They are continuing to rise.

“Sorry kids, we’ll have to scrap together some leftovers and supplement it with rice and beans for the next few dinners.  But it’s ok.  Jerome Powell has assured us that this is just transitory.”

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is approaching $8 trillion as I write this, and we are constantly hearing about shortages.  But production isn’t what matters to investors (speculators).  What matters is the easy money coming from the Fed, which keeps the speculative frenzy going.

You may have trouble buying a car or a new appliance for your kitchen, but your portfolio of stocks and crypto is out of this world.

The CPI Numbers

The less volatile median CPI ticked up to 0.3% for May.  The CPI less food and energy was up 0.7% for May.

The year-over-year CPI now stands at 5%.  You can look at this a couple of ways.  First, many things were under lockdown or heavy restrictions one year ago, so people were likely not spending as much money.  So in this sense, the 5% maybe doesn’t seem so bad.

On the other hand, price inflation was coming in rather mild last year and earlier this year as compared to now.  So if the numbers keep coming in hot, that year-over-year change is going to go higher.

We have seen three months in a row of 0.6% or higher.  For March, April, and May, it was 0.6%, 0.8%, and 0.6%, respectively.

Again, based on this, price inflation, according to the CPI numbers, is running somewhere around 7 or 8 percent annually.

At 8 percent annual price inflation, prices would double approximately every 9 years.  Use the Rule of 72.  Take 72 and divide by 8, and you get a doubling every 9 years.

Don’t wait to buy that Tesla, or it may cost $180,000 in less than a decade. (The first half of that sentence is a joke.)

Inflation and Stocks

Stocks can provide something of an inflation hedge over long periods of time.  But it is not as if stocks can’t go down right now, and we also must consider the impacts of inflation.

Most publicly-traded companies have significant input costs.  If the price of raw materials goes up, and a company needs those raw materials to build its products, then its costs are going to go up.

One input cost that almost every company has is labor.  Businesses are having a hard time finding dependable workers, especially when they are competing with the government’s generous unemployment benefits.  In order to hire people and get them stay, businesses will have to start raising wages, if they haven’t already.  This is a major cost for most companies.

One response to this is that companies can just charge more money for their products because their input costs are higher.  This is true to some extent, but there is no guarantee that customers can afford the higher prices or are willing to pay them.

Some businesses will be hurt more by inflation than others.  But inflation does not help profitability except perhaps on a nominal basis.  In real terms, most companies are ultimately hurt by inflation.

Maybe it makes sense that stocks are going up in nominal terms, but the gains we have seen are far and beyond the reported price inflation numbers.

It is a good reminder that, even during the high-inflation times of the 1970s, there were periods when stocks went down significantly.

At some point, if price inflation gets into double digits and stays there, the Fed is going to have to slow down its monetary inflation (taper), or just outright stop it.  I think they will ultimately choose this path over hyperinflation.

I can’t repeat enough that this is unsustainable.  Something is going to happen.  You can call it a correction.  You can call it a reversion to the mean.  The bear market in stocks (and many other asset classes) will eventually arrive.

Investors (speculators) have shrugged off the inflation news, but they won’t be shrugging when the selling frenzy begins.

We have been lied to from the very beginning.  The first major lie that I identified was in February or March 2020 when we were being told that the newly discovered COVID-19 had a fatality rate of 3 to 4 percent.  This was obviously a lie (but not too obvious, I guess) because they were only counting those people who had tested positive for COVID-19, which at that time were the sickest people.

The lies likely started before that time, and Dr. Anthony Fauci (who doesn’t actually treat patients) seems to be complicit in all of it.

Isn’t it strange just how hard the narrative has been pushed?  Since March 2020, the narrative of lockdowns, isolation, and mask wearing has been pushed relentlessly.  Since the end of 2020, vaccines have been pushed relentlessly, while critics or skeptics have been shamed.

When governments are offering free beer and lottery tickets to take a jab, it really makes you wonder why they are so desperate for people to take their form of medicine.  The ones who are pushing the hardest are not the candidates on my list of those trying to bring greatness to mankind.

When the CDC relaxed its guidelines on mask wearing, I thought it was a bit strange at first.  Were they realizing that too many people were rebelling, and they therefore had to jump ahead of the parade and make it look like they were leading it, instead of having the appearance of widespread non-compliance?

But then I realized that it was all a push to get more people vaccinated.  They said you should only take your mask off if you have been fully vaccinated.

Next, I learned that there are now different standards for the vaccinated and unvaccinated when it comes to recording cases.  If you have been vaccinated, it is almost impossible to be counted as a COVID case.

Now, reality has changed again.  It is now somehow widely accepted that the virus may have originated from a lab in Wuhan, China.

A Conversation in Time

Me in 2020:  The virus may have been manmade in a lab in China.

Reaction to me in 2020:  You are a crackpot conspiracy theorist who should be banned from all media platforms.

Me in June 2021:  The virus may have been manmade in a lab in China.

Reaction to me in June 2021:  Of course, everyone knows that the Chinese may have manufactured the virus.

It really is amazing how fast the narrative can change, and it is amazing how people just forget what they were told in the past.

Why the Lab Theory Now?

Now that the theory that SARS-COV-2 may have been developed in a lab, it leads to a lot more questions.

First, why is this just now gaining acceptance amongst the powers-that-be?

This obviously wouldn’t have played well in March 2020.  If the establishment had admitted then that this was a lab leak, then all of the tyrannical measures that came would likely have not been possible.

It is worse when you consider that the U.S. government, with the directives likely coming straight from Fauci, were helping to fund “gain-of-function” research.  In other words, the government, which included Fauci, helped to fund the development of this bio weapon.  So why would anyone listen to what Fauci has to say about this virus?  If the man is this much of a liar and this evil, then why would anyone listen to what he has to say about lockdowns and mask wearing and vaccines?

After Rand Paul questioned Fauci about his funding of gain-of-function research, it became widely accepted that this virus might have escaped from a lab in Wuhan.  But now most Americans are trying to blame China.  You have to wonder if the establishment decided to play along with the lab theory to, once again, get in front of the parade.  Maybe they figured it was being exposed, so it is better to admit it now and set the narrative that it is the fault of the Chinese.

It would be rather ironic if Rand Paul’s questioning of Fauci ends up leading to a war with China.

But how is it that the U.S. government once again has its hands in the cookie jar?  Whenever anything bad happens in the world, it almost seems inevitable that the U.S. government will have ties to the event.

There was a coup in some third-world country?  Oh, it just so happens the CIA had operatives stationed there just before it happened.

This is where we are at now.  The virus likely escaped from a lab in China, and the U.S. government was funding some of the research in this lab.  And the funding was likely coming from different sources, but they all originate from the U.S. Treasury.

This leads to more questions.  If the research was at least partially funded by the U.S. government, and the manmade virus escaped from the lab, how do we know if it was intentional?

Some are pointing a finger at China, but why would the Chinese release a virus on their own population?  As deranged as the communist party is there, they don’t really have the incentive to do this.  If you watch China closely, they are certainly tyrannical in some aspects, but almost everything seems to revolve around economic superiority.

When it comes down to it, the Chinese ruling party is made up of mostly Keynesians.  They want more economic growth, and they want more ownership and trade of economic goods and services.  They do this through a mostly centralized system, but the last 30 years has shown that some form of Keynesian economics is far superior to any form of communism.

If the virus was purposely released on the population, it was more likely done by Fauci and company.  These are sick people.  These are the sick people who want your life to be miserable.  These are the sick people who want you desperately to be vaccinated.  Fauci is probably some kind of sick eugenicist like his buddy Bill Gates.

If you wanted to depopulate the earth in a controlled way, could you possibly think of a better strategy?  The virus that was released isn’t all that deadly, but can be manipulated enough to appear to be far deadlier than the flu.

With the desperation of pushing vaccines, it seems that the virus and the “pandemic” were not the end game.  The vaccines seem to be the end game.  It makes you wonder how many people will suffer long-term consequences, including death, from these experimental vaccines.  Or perhaps they will just make a generation of people mostly infertile so that they can’t reproduce.

As I write this, I almost do feel like a crackpot conspiracy theorist.  I have to entertain every possibility at this point.  I have also entertained the idea that COVID-19 is a complete hoax, as the virus was never properly isolated, and it is just assumed that it is there.

It is a bit odd when the number of symptoms of COVID-19 is seemingly endless.  There are many illnesses that are never diagnosed.  People have health issues all the time.  And if you have a PCR test run at a high cycle threshold, it isn’t difficult to pick up viral debris in order to claim a positive test.

The only common symptom I have heard from some who have tested positive is that they lose their smell and taste.  Of course, you can easily lose your smell when you have a cold.  So maybe some people in the U.S. are getting the same virus that came out of China in late 2019 and early 2020.  Even then, it is probably a different variant at this point, and possibly much weaker.

It is hard to know what to believe any more.  We have been continually lied to non-stop since March 2020.  These lies have been used to justify locking us down, isolating us, and then injecting an experimental cocktail of chemicals into our bodies.

I don’t think it is a coincidence that the U.S. was funding research on manipulating viruses in a lab in Wuhan, China, which just happens to be the same place that SARS-COV-2 originated from.

If I follow Occam’s razor, then this virus, assuming it exists, came from a lab.  It is less clear whether it was intentionally leaked, or if it accidentally escaped.  If it was intentionally leaked, then all fingers should point to the U.S. government, and particularly the evil Dr. Fauci.

Things are starting to look a little too much like Ayn Rand’s novel from 1957.  To be sure, there are major differences, and I think the book did not reflect reality in many ways.  But at the same time, we seem to be witnessing a slow collapse of civilization.

We haven’t seen the lights go out permanently in New York City, but it is interesting that New York City has seen one of the biggest declines over the last couple of years in the United States.  Between lockdowns and rising crime (which aren’t unrelated), New York City is no longer a highly desirable place to be, even for many who previously loved the place.

Even across the country, there are signs of decline.  It is strange to say because in some ways, our lives are better than ever.  It is a tale of two cities.  It is the best of times and the worst of times.  This is evident when you see a poor person in line at a food bank while talking on a cell phone.

I wrote recently about shortages and inflation.  This story continues.  People are quick to blame it on COVID and supply disruptions.  But it was the reaction to COVID, particularly lockdowns, that may be responsible for supply disruptions. However, it also goes way beyond this.

There is the reaction of the government to spend trillions of more dollars when it was already running massive deficits.  There is the reaction of the Federal Reserve to monetize the debt and create trillions of dollars out of thin air.  And when you include the fact that the government is bailing out cities and states for locking down, and also bailing out the people who were pushed into unemployment, it is a recipe for disaster.

We have heard about people making more from unemployment benefits than from what they were previously making at their job.  Even if someone is getting paid slightly less in unemployment, they may not return to work.  If you are getting, say, $2,500 per month in unemployment, and you can get a job for $2,800 per month, what is the motivation to work 40 hours per week for an extra $300?

In Atlas Shrugged, it was mostly the creators and entrepreneurs who went on strike.  In today’s world, it is the lower skilled people who are on strike, except that they are really just being paid to be on strike.  And while they are lower skilled, employers do need employees for simple tasks that cannot necessarily be done by robots.

I think one area of Atlas Shrugged that wasn’t realistic was that many businessmen were seen as good and noble.  That certainly doesn’t represent the world we live in today, especially when it comes to big business.  Unfortunately, there are probably more people in today’s world like James Taggart than Dagny Taggart or Francisco d’Anconia.

While entrepreneurs are still going strong in America, there is a major decline when it comes to big corporations.  The CEOs and corporate boards are more worried about being “woke” and diverse than they are about serving their customers.  They are also rightly worried about pleasing government officials and making sure that they get the right benefits, whether it is through direct subsidies or favorable regulations.

I feel like some businesses are more worried about whether I’m wearing a mask and if I’m vaccinated than actually making sure I get the products that I am looking for.

Due to a massive expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet, coupled with free money handed out to people, prices are going up at a fast pace.  There are shortages being reported of many materials and products, but widespread shortages do not typically occur unless there is government intervention.  In this case, the resolution to the shortages may just come in the form of even higher prices.

For companies looking to hire people, they will likely have to raise the wages being offered.  But this will only be done if it is feasible and profitable.  McDonald’s could get workers by paying $30 per hour, but then they would have to raise the price of their food in order to be profitable.  And that will only work if people are willing to pay the higher prices.

My Experiences

My wife has been trying to get through to Delta Airlines because one of her flights booked for this summer was changed.  It went from one layover to two layovers, and one of the layovers is only 30 minutes long, which makes it likely that she would miss her next flight.

The other day, she called Delta customer service, which is anything but.  The wait time was several hours.  She left her phone number for a call back.  This was at about 9:00 in the morning.  They said the call-back wait time was about 7 hours.  She ended up getting a call back at 3:00 in the morning.  I’m not sure which is worse – the fact that they called her at 3:00 in the morning, or that it took about 18 hours for someone to call her back.

Delta obviously has a major staffing problem right now.  I can’t imagine what someone would do who has a more urgent situation.  They are canceling flights, and their customer service is almost impossible to reach.  If it weren’t for the internet, the airline would basically have to shut down at this point.

I am hearing stories frequently about people not being able to find regular products.  I ordered a new oven for my kitchen back in April.  The wait time for delivery was over two weeks.  I have heard of other people ordering appliances and it taking even longer.  What happened to the old days when you could walk into a store and order an appliance for next-day delivery?

It is all of these little things happening around me.  There are signs of a major decline in civilization.  I am just thankful now when I go to the grocery store and they have everything I am looking for.

I am afraid that massive price inflation is coming.  Economically, the only thing worse than that is if the government tries to prevent massive price inflation by instituting price controls beyond the so-called price gouging laws already in existence.  If that happens, the current shortages will seem like nothing compared to what will happen.

I don’t think many creators and entrepreneurs are purposely going on strike.  But some of them were shut down in 2020, and they don’t want to go down that road again.  And the government, with its unreliable fiat currency, is making it difficult for the good and honest entrepreneurs to prosper.

We are starting to experience a decline like what was initially seen in Atlas Shrugged.  The problem is that Atlas hasn’t even shrugged yet.  The weight of the world isn’t just on the shoulders of entrepreneurs and businessmen.  It is on middle class America.  It may be middle class America that is about to shrug in order to deprive the power elite.

The most important issue coming out of 2020 is not healthcare.  It is property rights.  Government at all levels violated property rights to a degree that hasn’t been seen in our lifetimes.

The only possible exception to this is the issue of war, which in itself heavily violates property rights.  It obviously violates the rights of those subjected to the bombings and occupations.  Americans who were drafted in the 1970s and before also saw this violation.  The property right violation was against their lives.

Outside of war, Americans have never seen such massive violations of property rights as what has been seen since March 2020.  Most state and local governments issued stay-at-home orders and shut down businesses deemed non-essential.  Meanwhile, the guidance was coming from the federal government (maybe national government is a better term here).  And then you also have the CDC telling tenants that they won’t be kicked out if they don’t pay their rent.

The issue of property rights goes along with freedom of association.  When the government tells a restaurant to not allow any diners, it violates the rights of both the company and the customers.  The two parties should be free to associate, but the government is telling you that they will ultimately use violence if you violate the imposed rules (not laws).

Libertarians are the strictest defenders of property rights.  It is really the basis of libertarianism.  You don’t infringe on other people or their property.  Maybe there are some nuances and gray areas, but this really sums up libertarianism.

We live in a society with some respect for property rights.  If there were no respect for property rights, we wouldn’t really have a civilization at all.  If the human race still existed at all, it would be a world of violence and poverty like we can’t imagine.  Even in current-day Venezuela, there is still some form of property rights.

There are obviously many violations of property rights, even in the United States.  All you have to do is look at all of the taxes and most regulations to see where the violations come in.  There is certainly crime, but most property rights violations come from the government at some level.

Given this, it has made it that much more difficult over the last year for libertarians to navigate the statist waters.  Whenever property rights are violated, it seems libertarians are talking to an empty crowd when the issue is brought up (if it is ever brought up).  But if a private business does something that is worth criticizing, then libertarians are immediately met with, “It’s a private business, so they can do what they want.”

Don’t Back Down, But Explain

It’s important for libertarians to not back down from these discussions.  But it’s also important to get the nuances correct.

In 2016, Libertarian Party presidential candidate Gary Johnson was asked about whether a baker should be forced to bake a cake for a gay couple’s wedding.  Johnson said that the baker should be forced to bake the cake, but he doesn’t have to decorate it.  He rightly received a lot of criticism for this response, especially from hardcore libertarians.

Now it is being used against hardcore libertarians when a private business does something that most libertarians object to.  For example, many businesses require that you wear a mask.  Many people object to this.  So we’re met with, “They are a private business, so they can do what they want.”

It’s not that this response is wrong.  But it doesn’t end there.  First, these mask mandates are there because of pressure coming from the government.  They will often just follow CDC guidelines, and some of it is to protect against lawsuits.  It isn’t all virtue signaling.

Second, just because a libertarian objects to a mask mandate, it doesn’t mean this person is advocating government action.  You can make your thoughts known and then choose whether or not to shop there.

I, personally, have always been hesitant to say that I have a medical condition.  I don’t really like to lie.  I will enter a store without a mask even if there is a sign saying it is required.  But as soon as someone from the store questions me about it (which rarely happens) and tells me it is a requirement, then I will choose to either wear one or leave the store.  It ultimately is their property.

There was a video of a woman in a bank who was arrested because she refused to wear a mask.  But really, she refused to leave the premises.  It is hard to blame the police in this situation because the bank employees (who represent the owner or owners) were telling her to leave.  At that point, she was trespassing.

I understand where many conservatives and some libertarians are coming from when they want to use the law to their advantage.  When you say you have a medical exemption, nobody is supposed to ask you about your medical condition, as it could be a violation of federal law.

In Florida, new legislation is preventing private businesses from using vaccine passports.  Many conservatives and some libertarians cheer this, and understandably so.  At the same time, it is a violation of property rights, as a movie theater or any other venue should be able to write its own rules.

But then it is frustrating for libertarians because most companies would not even be considering such a thing as a vaccine passport if we lived in a free society and if you didn’t have the CDC shoving guidelines down your throat.

Another thing to consider, which is a point often skipped even by libertarians, is that these vaccines did not come about in the free market.  The federal government spent billions of dollars funding the research and development.  And now your vaccine is “free”, as the federal government (with help from the Federal Reserve) has paid for the production and distribution.  The government also shields the vaccine manufacturers from liability, and then uses your tax money again to offer incentives (bribes) and do mass marketing campaigns.

So when Ron DeSantis stands up and says that vaccines shouldn’t be required, it is hard to give a first reaction of, “Well, that’s a violation of property rights.”  I do think it needs to be said that it is a violation of property rights, but it is rather minor when compared to everything that just came before it.

(It gets even messier when looking at the cruise industry, as there are contradicting laws coming from the federal government and the state of Florida.)

The same goes for employers that mandate vaccines in order to stay employed.  I think libertarians and every other sane person should fight hard so that this does not become the norm in our society.  I’m sure there will be many court battles in the future that deal with this issue.

You know that eventually, some employer is going to require the vaccine and then someone will get really sick or die right after getting the shot.  Then the employer will be sued for liability (while the drug companies are protected as planned).

If you are a libertarian, it is not a contradiction to fight these mandates while maintaining a respect for property rights.  You can be against mask mandates and vaccine mandates by private businesses without requesting government interference.  Of course, it should always be pointed out that these likely wouldn’t be issues if it weren’t for the government in the first place.

It is also an opportunity to call out those who do not defend property rights, especially on the political left.  If you ever hear a non-libertarian say, “It is a private business, so they can do what they want.”, then this is a perfect opportunity to say that they should have been treated this way in 2020 when businesses were forcibly shut down.

If you want to take it one step farther, you can also ask them whether they favor getting rid of all anti-discrimination laws.  Why is it only libertarians who have to be consistent all of the time?  Anyone who is opposing DeSantis for telling businesses that they can’t require vaccine passports better support complete property rights and freedom of association.  Otherwise, they are just authoritarians who want all of the rules and restrictions in place that they favor, and no more.

The Biden administration has proposed a budget for fiscal year 2022 (October 1, 2021 through September 30, 2022) that would have the federal government spending $6 trillion.

Some just shrug their shoulders.  Some are outraged at the amount.  You could probably tell people that the proposal is for $5 trillion or $7 trillion and you would get about the same reaction.  I don’t think most people would be able to tell you how much the government is spending annually within half a trillion dollars.  Some people might not even know it is in the trillions.  And for those who do understand, it is still hard to comprehend.

If you have one million dollars, you would have to multiply that by one million in order to get a trillion.  So if you take one million rich Americans and order them to pay one million dollars each in one year, it won’t even cover 20% of the federal budget.

It is surprisingly difficult to find good sources that give a good overhead view of the federal budget.  Here is one website that gives a good summary of the receipts and outlays going back to 1930.  The receipts are the tax collections.  The outlays column represents the spending.  The difference is the surplus or deficit.

Of course, it is mostly deficits.  The numbers don’t take into account the unfunded liabilities.  Much of the surpluses of the latter Bill Clinton years came from Social Security taxes paid, where the amount the government paid out to Social Security recipients was less than what was collected.  What should have been going into the Social Security Trust Fund was really being used to show a surplus.  Still, the years of a Clinton presidency with a Republican Congress look like a dream compared to the mess we’re in now.

The numbers are shown in billions of dollars.  If you look at the outlays for fiscal year 2020, it shows 6,550.4.  This means approximately $6.55 trillion was spent for fiscal year 2020.  The tax collections were $3.421 trillion, which resulted in a deficit of over $3.1 trillion.  The estimates for 2021 get even worse.

The chart shows estimates going forward to 2026.  These are unreliable, but still telling.  I don’t know why they would expect to have receipts of $5.3 trillion in 2026.  Maybe we will if we have massive inflation.  These predictions are based on an assumption that there will be no recession, which is a pretty big assumption.

One thing that is certain is that we will continue to see massive annual deficits.  This is the amount added to the national debt every year.  All of the assumptions show deficits of at least $1.3 trillion over the next 5 years.  This is largely being funded by the Federal Reserve buying U.S. government debt.

Unsustainable

Herbert Stein said that if something cannot go on forever, it will stop.  It sounds like it should be a Yogi Berra quote. Sometimes things have to be stated simply to bring us back to reality.

It is surprising how long the federal government has gotten away with these massive deficits.  The consumer price inflation numbers are coming in higher these days, so it’s possible that this could be the start of the end of this madness.

One thing for sure is that the Congress and president are not going to voluntarily reduce the budget.  I am not counting the ridiculous outlays from 2020 and 2021 with stimulus checks, bailouts, and unemployment checks.

This is the ratchet effect.  The outlays in fiscal year 2019 were $4.447 trillion.  This was already absurdly high.  After exploding for 2020 and 2021, the government will ratchet it back a little.  But if spending is at $6 trillion for 2022, that will be an increase of more than $1.5 trillion from the already bloated budget of 2019.

This cannot go on.  It technically can continue numerically, but there are going to be great consequences.  There already are great consequences.

When there is a massive deficit, we hear that we are burdening our grandchildren and future generations.  This isn’t untrue.  But more importantly, which isn’t typically said, is that we are burdening ourselves now.  This is all a misallocation of resources.  If the government is spending money (whether through taxes or debt or inflation), then that is money that is not available for saving, spending, and investing by companies and individuals.

It is impossible to know how this will all play out, but it is going to be painful.  If we hit a 1970s scenario where there is double-digit price inflation, what will the Fed do?  It isn’t as easy now to get someone like Paul Volcker in as Fed chair to stop the money creation and allow interest rates to rise.  It’s certainly possible, but America has become addicted to spending and debt.

Can you imagine if price inflation and interest rates hit double digits?  Can you imagine that Congress is forced to cut back its spending to just 5 years ago at about $4 trillion?  There would be a lot of people who are dependent on government taking a haircut.  There would be a lot of special interests upset.  There would be major cuts in both welfare and warfare programs across the board.  It can’t happen soon enough for me.

If you test positive for COVID-19 and die within 28 days, then you died of COVID.  If you get the COVID vaccine and then you die, it was a coincidence.  It was just your time to go.

I have been harping on this point for several months now.  Hank Aaron died a few weeks after receiving a COVID shot.  My local news reported on his death and then said he was trying to set an example for other African Americans by getting the shot.  They said it with no irony, and with no thought that his death could have possibly been linked to the shot.

Hank Aaron was old, you might say.  Ok, so are most of the people who are supposedly dying of COVID.

If you look it up on Google, all the “fact checkers” will assure you that his death was natural.

There has been a lack of consistency with COVID since almost day one of the hysteria.  The CDC changed its guidelines on reporting deaths.  This is not how deaths have ever been recorded for the flu or anything else.

The PCR test can be run at different cycle thresholds (CTs).  The higher the CT count, the more amplification there is of the material.  A high CT count can pick up meaningless viral debris.  In other words, a high CT count will give you a lot of false positives.

In 2020, Dr. Fauci admitted that anything over 35 cycles is not reliable and will give you false positives.  Yet, the FDA says labs should run their tests up to 40 cycles.  Why would the FDA set these loose guidelines that will spit out a high percentage of false positive tests?  Someone should ask Dr. Fauci this question.

This is how we got a casedemic.  And when you have millions of people testing positive, some percentage of those people are going to die, whether or not COVID had anything to do with it.  There were about 7,500 Americans dying every single day before COVID ever came about.

The Biggest Scam Yet

If that’s not convincing enough that this hysteria is one giant scam, then this next thing should do it.  Anyone who makes excuses for this just isn’t being honest, or else they lack any curiosity.  Not being curious at all while speaking out on a subject really makes someone dishonest at some level.

The CDC tracks what it calls “breakthrough” cases.  These are cases where someone is fully vaccinated for COVID-19 yet contracts it anyway.  But the CDC has changed its guidelines for what counts as a case.  This applies only to those who are vaccinated.

In order to be counted as a breakthrough case, the lab has to submit a COVID positive test run at 28 cycles or lower.  In addition, the person has to exhibit symptoms of COVID and has to be hospitalized or die.

In other words, it is a completely different standard from what has been used (and still is used) to measure cases of COVID for those who are not vaccinated.

If these same guidelines had applied since March 2020, there never would have been a casedemic.  There never would have been a pandemic (as defined by the corporate media).  There never would have been the hysteria because the numbers would not have supported the hysteria.

This is a scam.

Have you ever heard this reported on NBC Nightly News or CNN?  The question answers itself.

This is a major scam, and it is being perpetrated with the help of the establishment media.  You aren’t going to hear about any of this on the television, with the possible exception of a few shows on Fox News.

Here is a good article run by Zero Hedge on this story.  If your friends doubt the validity of it, tell them to look directly at the CDC website.  Again, it takes a little bit of curiosity.

The CDC’s website says: “As of May 1, 2021, CDC transitioned from monitoring all reported vaccine breakthrough cases to focus on identifying and investigating only hospitalized or fatal cases due to any cause.  This shift will help maximize the quality of the data collected on cases of greatest clinical and public health importance.”

Also on the CDC website, it has information for laboratories on vaccine breakthrough cases.  It states: “Clinical specimens for sequencing should have an RT-PCR Ct value ≤28.”

If the test is run at 29 cycles or higher, the CDC doesn’t want to count it, but they’ll be happy to continue counting COVID cases for unvaccinated people run at 40 cycles.

Let your Facebook friends try to defend this one.  Anyone making excuses is lying about it.  They just want to shut their eyes and believe what their overlords in the corporate media tell them to believe.

I know that things are opening back up in the United States.  You can’t say the same about Canada and other places.  But there is still a lot of hysteria out there, and the perpetrators of this should be exposed so that this never happens again.  They should be shown as the liars and deceivers that they are.

They are reporting false statistics.  The standards for counting cases are different between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated.  What are they trying to hide with this?

It’s either that the vaccines are ineffective (at best), or that there never was a pandemic.  It’s likely both, but it really has to be at least one or the other.  If not, why are they playing this game?  If the vaccines work so well and the PCR tests are accurate, then why the different standards?

Dr. Fauci and the head people at the CDC should be asked these questions.  The large majority of people are completely in the dark about this.  The liars, criminals, and murderers who are promoting these lies need to be exposed.

It’s been a rough week for Bitcoin enthusiasts.  It was really a rough week for anyone who is enthusiastic about cryptocurrencies.

It was Elon Musk who propelled Bitcoin to its highest high, and it was Musk who seemed to take some of the air out of the bubble.  Like any investment, we can’t be certain of the cause though.  Maybe Bitcoin would have tanked even if Musk hadn’t said that Tesla would stop accepting it.

The reality is that cryptocurrencies are all part of the speculative bubble.  I call it the “everything bubble”.  It’s not that everything is literally in a bubble, but all of the major asset classes seem to be in a speculative bubble.  This includes stocks, real estate, bonds, and, perhaps to a lesser degree, commodities.

On Wednesday, the price of the Dow and Bitcoin crossed paths a couple of times in the 33,000 range.  While I am down on stocks and think most stocks are in a massive bubble, I would prefer to hold the Dow over Bitcoin right now.

If you were gifted one share of the Dow or one bitcoin, and you had to hold it for at least one year, which would you choose?  I would rather take partial ownership of 30 major companies that actually sell things.

Bitcoin is nothing.  All similar cryptocurrencies are nothing.  They are novelties.  Some libertarians hate it when I talk this way.  I don’t want to argue with other people who are critical of the Fed, but I fear that they are doing a disservice to the libertarian cause.

I understand that there are some mainstream (establishment) commentators out there who are critical of Bitcoin and other cryptos.  There are politicians and central bankers who are also critical, if they say anything at all.  Some of these people are bad people.  But it doesn’t automatically make them wrong.  Even a blind squirrel occasionally gets a nut.

The Bitcoin proponents need to read Mises.  They need to understand that money doesn’t just come about because someone announces that something is money.  The quasi-libertarian tech nerds thought they had done it with Bitcoin.  It uses a great new technology (the blockchain), but that doesn’t make Bitcoin in itself useful.  You can’t just make something money out of thin air, unless you are a government that is using the threat of force to compel others to use it.  Even then, they usually have to gradually do it over time by substituting their fiat for real money, such as gold or silver.

Bitcoin is backed by nothing.  It has no use.  You will see Bitcoin represented as some kind of gold coin with a “B” on it.  This is more appealing than putting nothing on a screen or a bunch of computer code.  But you can’t see or hold a Bitcoin, and it serves no purpose for anyone other than speculation.

Bitcoin is just over a decade old.  It is bought and sold for speculative reasons.  Gold has been used for thousands of years for jewelry, industrial purposes, and as a form of money.  It is almost a joke to compare the two things.

On Wednesday, Bitcoin took a nosedive.  This is speaking in terms of the U.S. dollar, which actually is money.  The Bitcoin proponents get really excited when Bitcoin goes up in price (i.e., in U.S. dollars), which is their measuring stick.  I don’t blame them, because I would want more U.S. dollars too.  That is money.  They are excited that they could convert their Bitcoin into dollars to actually buy things.

We were sold a bill of goods on Bitcoin.  We were told it could be used as money.  Even to this day, I will hear people argue this point.  They will say that some companies accept Bitcoin as a form of payment.

But nothing is actually priced in Bitcoin.  They are priced in dollars and converted into Bitcoin.  Tesla was never selling a car for, say, one bitcoin.  Anyone selling a product and accepting Bitcoin is not pricing the product in Bitcoin.

On Wednesday, after the price of Bitcoin tanked to around 30,000 (from over 40,000 the day before), it recovered later in the day and went back to around 40,000.  This is actually a dream come true for a speculative trader.  If you had bought at the bottom mid-morning, you could have pocketed a 30% return in the matter of a few hours.

How could anything that fluctuates 30% or more in one single day ever be possibly used as money?  Bitcoin makes the dollar look incredibly stable.  If the U.S. dollar index (which compares it to other fiat currencies) goes up or down more than 1% in one day, that is considered a major change.

Bitcoin has never been money.  It never will be money.  We were sold a story by the Bitcoin proponents about privacy and about its potential as a form of money.

There are thousands of cryptocurrencies now.  This just shows that almost anyone with some computer skills can create one.  Then it is just about marketing.  It is about marketing to get people to buy, thinking there will be another sucker down the line to buy at a higher price.

I don’t call it a Ponzi scheme because anyone can know the truth about cryptocurrencies who cares to look.  Everyone should know it is mass speculation, and nobody is forced into it, so it isn’t a Ponzi scheme.

Most, if not all, of these cryptocurrencies will end up at zero.  I have no idea if we will see another major surge from here, or if this was the beginning of the end for them.

If you enjoy speculative trading (i.e., gambling), then this market is for you right now.  While I expect a ride down, it won’t be a straight ride down.  There will be a ton of volatility.  But speculators should only gamble with money they can afford to lose.  And when I say money, I mean dollars.

The latest of the mixed messaging coming out of the CDC says that you can stop wearing a mask most of the time if you are vaccinated.  In other words, the message is clear: get vaccinated.  That’s what the paternalistic Joe Biden ordered everyone to do.

I went to the grocery store this morning, and I saw the least mask wearing (in that store) that I have seen in about a year.  It was about a 50/50 split.  Even some of the employees weren’t wearing one, but I was disappointed to hear that it was because they had been vaccinated.  I don’t believe the store is allowing people who are unvaccinated to not wear a mask, and the grocery store knows because it was administering the shots.

While it is refreshing to see more faces, it is quite concerning in other ways.

First, about half of the people are still wearing a mask.  I have never once walked in to this grocery store with a mask, and I have never been questioned.  And now it is quite obvious you can walk in without a mask.  It’s not as if anyone is going to ask for your vaccination papers.  I’m sure some idiotic store out there may try such a thing, but this is not the norm, or at least not yet.

So half the people are wearing a mask even though they don’t have to.  And with so many others not wearing them, they shouldn’t be afraid of any dirty looks (even though you can’t even see dirty looks through a mask).  They are wearing them because they have been trained to wear them.  You have to wonder what percent of the population will wear a mask forever when out in public.

But just as depressing are the people not wearing a mask.  The CDC changes its guidelines and then nearly half the population just suddenly changes their behavior.  In other words, last week it was unsafe to walk around without a mask.  This week, because of new CDC guidance, it is now safe to walk around.

Again, I have never worn a mask in this store (and most other stores), and I have never been questioned.  So it’s not like these people couldn’t go without one before.

But I have found since March 2020 that there is a great lack of courage in this world.  I already knew this, but I didn’t know to what degree.  Most people conform to the crowd.  Half the people probably think this is completely stupid and nothing more than political theater.  Yet, they comply because they don’t want to risk standing out.

This is one great thing about having been a libertarian.  I was already accustomed to people thinking I’m crazy, or people trying to embarrass me for my beliefs (which is a belief in peace and prosperity).  So it did not take much courage for me to walk into a store without a diaper on my face.  Apparently that isn’t the case for most people.

Get Vaccinated, Or Be Shunned

Joe Biden has condescendingly told us to get vaccinated.  I realized quickly that this was the whole point about the change in CDC guidance.  It is a bribe.  If you want your life back, then you better get vaccinated.

And you can trust that this does work on a certain percentage of people.  There are many people that don’t really care one way or the other about getting the shot.  They may not have concerns about vaccine side effects, and they also don’t really have concerns over COVID.  But they think, “Well, it looks like this is the way going forward.  I don’t want to be prohibited from participating in society, so I better just get my shot.”

It is rather scary how much the powers-that-be are desperately trying to get you to take the vaccine (if the messenger RNA shot should even be considered a vaccine).

If someone who isn’t a scientist or doctor recommends not getting it, then we get to hear from the “experts” on how you shouldn’t take advice from someone who isn’t a healthcare expert.  Of course, they just ignore the doctors and scientists who actually warn against it.

But the same establishment will have Bill Gates on to tell us to get the shot.  I suppose Gates is an expert when it comes to viruses, as many of my past computers with a Windows operating system contracted many viruses.

Bill Gates wants to depopulate the earth, and he is begging desperately for everyone to get a COVID vaccine.  It tends to raise a few questions.

Meanwhile, we have Trump, who has become more idiotic since leaving office, claiming that he is the father of the vaccine.  He says that there wouldn’t have been a vaccine for 5 years if it hadn’t been for him.  He is telling people to get it.  Trump is mad that other people are taking credit for his work.

I believe this may cost Trump the 2024 Republican nomination, if that is what he wants.  At least half of his supporters don’t want the COVID jab.  They don’t trust the medical establishment, which was essential for getting Trump out of office.  If we hadn’t had COVID hysteria in 2020, Trump would have had a better chance at winning the presidency (regardless of whether you think there was significant fraud).

Almost everyone with an audience is telling you to get vaccinated.  The government used taxpayer money to fund the pharmaceutical companies to develop their concoction.  These companies are not held liable for death or side effects that may occur from their vaccines.  Now the government is running commercials with your tax money to tell you to get vaccinated.  To top it off, they are trying to tell you to get vaccinated if you want your life back.  If the encouragement doesn’t work, then maybe the threats and bribery will.

And if you go to state and local politics, you might be offered a free beer to get your shot, or you might win a million dollar lottery or a college scholarship.  Nothing says healthcare like giving someone a lottery ticket to make an important medical decision.

I believe the death toll and the side effects are vastly understated from the COVID vaccines.  But even the ones that are reported are significant.  It is not a decision that should be made lightly.  It is also not a decision that should be taken lightly for parents of children, many of whom are now eligible for the jab.

We also have no idea what the long-term side effects of the vaccines will be.  There is great (and valid) concern that it will make it harder for women to get pregnant.  What if all of the girls in their teens and twenties who are getting vaccinated find out later in life that it is difficult to get pregnant?  What if just 25% of those vaccinated find they cannot have a healthy pregnancy?  I guess Bill Gates may get his wish.

Nobody knows what the long-term side effects will be.  Maybe they won’t be significant for most people.  But the point is that we don’t know.  We know that some people have already died, and some people have already suffered severe health problems, but we don’t know about the longer picture in the future.  Even if you buy into the government’s own statistics, your chance of dying of COVID is virtually nothing if you are a child or young adult.  We don’t know the chances of dying or experiencing long-term health problems if you get vaccinated for COVID.

Anthony Fauci recently admitted that just a slim majority of workers at the NIH have likely gotten vaccinated.  If 40 to 50 percent of NIH employees haven’t gotten jabbed, what does that tell us?  I’m not sure if these people are smart or evil, or both.  But if they work for this propaganda arm and refuse to get the shot themselves, that says a lot about the situation.  They either know that COVID isn’t dangerous to most people, or they know that the vaccines carry significant risks, or both.

Joe Biden can tell you to get vaccinated.  But if you experience any medical issues because of it, I can guarantee you that Biden and Fauci won’t be by your side looking after you.  If anything, you will just be silenced or smeared for telling your story.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers came in on May 12, 2021.  There were expectations that price inflation would pick up.  They were calling it “transitory”.  But the numbers came in much hotter than expected.

For the month of April, prices rose 0.8% from the previous month.  The year-over-year showed an increase of 4.2%, although that could be a bit misleading, as the country was mostly under lockdown in April 2020.

The CPI excluding food and energy came in even slightly higher, as it was up 0.9% from the previous month.

The more stable median CPI came in at just 0.2% from the previous month.  While I like looking at this figure as well, it is important to take it in context.  This means that half the consumer goods measured were at or below the 0.2% increase.  That’s the median.  But the overall CPI came in at 0.8%, which means some consumer goods are coming in much, much higher to push the weighted average higher.

If the consumer goods that are seeing significant price inflation are the goods that are more essential to the average person, then this makes a big difference.  For example, we know that the price of lumber has gone up in a big way.  This is adding tens of thousands of dollars to the cost of building a new house.  Meanwhile, if the price of new furniture stays the same, it isn’t the same thing.  Most people don’t need new furniture.

Either way, the average is probably more indicative of what people are actually experiencing.  I like looking at the median because it is less volatile, but the average is more meaningful over time.

This CPI numbers spooked a lot of people.  It likely spooked the members of the Federal Reserve the most.  The Fed has essentially gotten away with massive monetary inflation over the last 13 years with little consequence.  There has not been a corresponding increase in price inflation, especially when looking at the CPI statistics or the PCE measure that the Fed uses.

This inflation report comes right on the heels of a bad jobs report last week, where the unemployment rate went up.  We aren’t in the mode of 1970s stagflation yet, but if these numbers continue, we are headed that way.

While I don’t necessarily expect the monthly CPI numbers to keep coming in so high in the coming months, it isn’t impossible either.  An increase of 0.8% may not seem that high, but that is for one month.  If you annualize that, you get a rate of 9.6%.  If you annualize the CPI minus food and energy, it gets into the double digits.

What will the Fed do if we get a couple of more months similar to the one just reported?  Fed officials have insisted that we would see its target rate remain near zero for the foreseeable future.  The Fed has also continued to expand its balance sheet by about $120 billion per month.  This is after the massive jump of almost $3 trillion in March through May of 2020.

Will the Fed be forced to save the dollar and gain control of price inflation by stopping its balance sheet expansion?  Will it have to take even more drastic measures and reduce it?

If and when the Fed does react to increased inflation fears, what will happen to the markets?  What will happen to the federal government’s spending?  Who will buy all of the debt that is continually growing?  I don’t think China and Japan will be major buyers, or at least not at low interest rates.  And if rates are pushed much higher, then the interest payments on the national debt will start to grow, thus perpetuating the situation.

Market Reaction

There was a major sell-off on Wall Street.  The Dow dropped 681 points.  The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both down over 2%.

Almost everything was down, including cryptocurrencies and gold.

You may wonder why gold went down in price a bit, given that it is supposed to be an inflation hedge.  The reason is because the market fears that the Fed will have to stop its ultra loose monetary policy earlier than expected.  This is really the reason that most everything went down.

This just shows that the major boom in the stock market that we have seen is a result of Federal Reserve monetary inflation.  When the government hands out tons of “free” money, which is delivered through money creation instead of taxation, then it isn’t surprising when asset prices get bid up.

Many people have enjoyed the ride, with all of these speculative assets going through the roof.  But it is obviously unsustainable.  When you think that most of the country was shut down last year, and tens of thousands (or hundreds of thousands) of small businesses closed permanently, and millions were thrown out of work, does it really make sense that the stock market has returned something like 40% over that time?

It is also interesting that Bitcoin and some other cryptos got hammered with this news.  Bitcoin was sold to people as the anti-dollar.  Its appeal is supposedly that it can’t be inflated like the U.S. dollar.  So when it is reported that the dollar is being depreciated even faster than before, why did Bitcoin sell off so much?

I think it is because Bitcoin is not an inflation hedge against the dollar or anything else.  It is a speculative “investment” that has been bid up with all of the free money going around.  With fears that the Fed might have to curtail its monetary inflation, Bitcoin suffered like most everything else, except even more dramatically.  Bitcoin and all of the other cyrptos are held up by loose money from the Fed, which seems kind of ironic given what we have been told.

I am not predicting that this is the start of a new bear market.  It’s quite possible that things will settle down, and it is possible that the bull market could resume.

But despite the bad news for the market, it is a little refreshing for those of us who have been warning that this is one giant speculative bubble that is unsustainable.

The “everything bubble” is dependent on Fed easy money.  As soon as there is a threat that the easy money will be pulled away, it can collapse the whole house of cards.

Now we get to wait another month for the next round of CPI numbers.  We’ll see if the bubble can keep going in the meantime, or if investors just got hit with a dose of reality.